Tag: investing

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Bull Market – What Everyone Should Know?

A stock bull market means that investment’s price rises over a long period. Investors’ faith in stock prices lead the prices themselves in a self-fulfilling prediction. A bull market means profits for investors who own stocks.

What exactly is a bull market? If you are like me several years ago, you are confused with all these terms, conditions, maths, evaluations, or estimations of the stock market.

May I be honest with you?

The truth is that I know nothing about the stock market when I entered. I was foolish, I know. But my desire to earn, to be investor was something I never have had before. It was like this…

A personal story

A friend of mine had a grandfather. Extremely interesting figure. He came from Italy to the US as a kid. OMG, he was just 12 when he bought a ticket and came with nothing except dreams about fortune. To shorten this story, after several years of struggling he made his first success. He became a clerk in the office of some broker. Step by step, that wonderful man became very rich. People, listen. Very rich!

I wanted the same. ASAP! I asked him for the recipe. Oh, how I would like I never did such a thing! The first lesson was: You know nothing, have to learn a lot. C’mon, man! Give me something else to start. I thought I know everything. I have just finished university. With a diploma in the hands, I thought I know everything possible about anything. Of course, I was wrong.

That blessed man told me I had to learn. How to, where to go? I spoke with some friends. No help. So, I decided to start. I found a broker, put some money (not a lot) on my trading account, and started to find a stock. That was a nightmare! My first trade was totally a disaster! I placed another trade. The result was the same. In two trades I lost everything.

Ok, at least I tried. Then I went back to my friend’s grandfather and asked him to teach me.

“You get your first lesson, my son.”

OK, I understand. I have to go for basic. And I started to learn. You must learn to have a chance to earn.

The bull market was the point where I started. I can’t explain why, but I felt I needed to know what it is.

The term “bull market” indicates a stock market is rising. Of course, every single investor supposes the market to rise. Better say, has a hope it will rise. But having only hope means to stand in the mud. You can slide in a moment and fall. Having my previous experience in the mind, I needed more facts.

Nice from this zoological term

So, I learned that the bull market occurs when the prices rise for 20% or more.

Further, I learned that a bull market systematically produces higher highs and higher lows. A stock bull market happens in a strong economy. Nice again, thanks bulls. But what can drive a stock bull market, that I wanted to know?

And I found (with a little help from my friend) that great revenue, profit, and P/E ratio are the most important.

The revenue should be in line with the economy, meaning revenue should grow by the speed of economic growth. Here is some interesting part. As consumers spend more on goods and services rise the economy will rise. Super!

And I came to the companies profit.

The revenue must generate profit.

But some knowledge defeated me. I thought that great profit is a wonderful thing and it is good when the company can generate more profit from the same revenue money. But it is not so simple.

And the P/E ratio! The stock price is just the amount of money it will cost to buy a share of a company. But stock prices can vary. If the demand for the stock rise, its price will rise too. The P/E ratio estimates the relationship between a stock price and its earnings per share.

I was confused just as you are now, I believe.

In a bull market

In a bull market, you’ll notice powerful demand and limited supply for securities. This means that more investors want to buy securities and less want to sell. What will happen? The stock price will rise, right. Let’s go further! Let’s observe investors’ psychology.

In the stock bull market condition, investors have the hope of earning a profit. They are positive and optimistic. Oh, how I wanted to have that experience. Instead, I was scared to death. I needed more knowledge to sure what I am doing. My first trade was so stressful and, by the way, I wanted to show my older friend that I can learn.

In the periods of the bull market, people have more money.

And they are spending. In turn, it stimulates the economy to grow. My old friend told me something important and let me share that with you.

When it is the bull market, you should buy stocks in the early stage, while they are not too expensive. As the price goes up, just wait for its peaks and sell your stocks. And don’t worry if there are some losses in price. It is temporary. Just invest in more stocks with a higher chance of getting a bigger return.
I am grateful to him for this lesson. But there was one piece of advice that sounded the most important to me: “Play the market like toreador plays his wonderful performance in the arena. Peaceful, with confidence, elegant. Tickling the bull. You have to know where the limits are, don’t get surprised.”

I’ll not. Thank you, my dear mentor.

9th October 2019
Millennials’ Fears to Invest in the Stock Market

One of four millennials doesn’t think investing is a good idea.
Holding on to cash is financial hara-kiri.
The stock market isn’t out-of-reach and with a little amount, you can start investing.

By G. Gligorijevic

Millennials’ fears to invest in the stock market are shown in statistical data. Millennials are skeptical of the stock market at a great percentage. Yes, people! I can understand that. It isn’t easy to understand the stock market and when you don’t understand something, you are getting afraid. Moreover, you have heard a lot of scary stories. But take a look at your peers. Almost 1/4 think that a stock market is a great place to put their money. Are they braver than you?

Investing in the stock market has nothing to do with bravery it is all about common sense.

I know what you want to say: There are a lot of other ways of saving. Yes, that’s true. But is the return so great as with stock investing? Take a look at baby boomers! They stole cryptocurrencies from you, for example, not to mention other assets. Digital money should be yours. While you are hesitating to invest in the stock market, baby boomers and Gen X have an advantage.

Some of you may say: Yes, but they don’t have loans, they have homes, etc.

Sorry guys, but I have to disappoint you. They also have debts, mortgages, loans but don’t think the best way to earn more is to put cash in the savings account.

I’ll show you how wrong you are if you prefer to keep your cash in the savings account and how much you can lose over the years. Actually, I would like to show you how much you can earn if you invest in the stock market. So let’s make some comparisons.

Which are Millennials’ fears to invest?

Do you really think you need a million dollars to retire? You’re going to be very discouraged. That amount isn’t even close to cover the cost of your bag of groceries. Inflation is what will make it tricky.

To put it simpler, your parents needed much less money to cover the cost of their bag of groceries when you were born. The costs increased by about 300% over the past 30 years. Scary! But you can’t destroy the inflation. Inflation is good for some things but it is another subject. Let’s stay stick with this one. Having this on your mind, are you still convinced that one million dollars is enough for your retirement? I am not sure. It is more like you will need more. By keeping your extra money on your savings account you will never earn enough to beat inflation.

Holding on to cash is financial hara-kiri.

If you don’t mind, I want to show you something.

Over the last 90 years, the returns of the S&P 500 was 10%. This is one example but the same is with other stock markets. How much your savings accounts pay you? Let’s say it is a high-saving one so you may have 1,5% per year.

Assume you have $50.000. If you put that amount on the savings account after 30 years you will have, without correcting for inflation, almost $80.000. This means your savings account could generate only $1.000 per year. But what would be your income if you invest your $50.000 in the stock market? After 30 years of investing in a nice portfolio, you could have almost one million dollars.

Can you notice the difference? Millennials’ fears to invest come from lack of knowledge about finances.

Why Millennials are afraid to put their money in the stock market?

Investing has never been easier, but millennials are still afraid to start investing.
You don’t need the fortune to get involved in the stock market. You are investing to make a fortune. Today we have online brokerages and robo-advisors. That makes investing pretty much easier than ever.

Further, data is easy to access. You don’t need to read newspapers to gather the info about some stock. Yes, sometimes it can be fun and may bring a lot of entertainment, who likes it. But you have plenty of other ways out there to find the stock. Data is now easy to access and usually totally free.
You can start at less than $1.000. No one will think you are a loser if you start with less than $1.000 or with just little as $100.

Take profit of this, and take command of your future.

Investing has never been easier

The stock market isn’t out-of-reach and with a little amount of, let’s say $500 you can start investing. That is an optimal amount that may provide you decently returns. Start with this, try your hand. Of course, for the first investment, you can use some robo-advisor.

Ask your bank advisor to create an investment portfolio for you. There is no need to do it yourself alone.

Millennials’ fears to invest are without a real reason. The money is like sand. If you squeeze it in your hand, it will go through your fingers.

Don’t do that. You can play better and become a real wealthy. Grab your chance to win!

7th October 2019
How to Calculate the Fair Value of Your Stock

Fair value points to the genuine value of a stock or other security that is agreed between the two parties, the seller and the buyer. It can be calculated for the assets that are traded, but not for the products that are being liquidated. It can be a challenge to calculate the fair value if there are no obviously visible market prices. The point of this is to define the price or value that is fair for both sides, the seller will not be on the losing side, and the buyer will end with a satisfying price.

For example, a trader Anna sells its stocks to the trader John at $50 per share. The trader John believes he could sell it at $70 per share once he gets them. So, John buys 1,000 shares at the price Anna is setting. It is a fair value because both sides agreed the price and the trade is beneficial for each of them.

How to calculate fair value?

You can do it with comparable information, for example.

Use respectable financial news and find the last closing price for the stock you want to buy. Say, you want to buy 100 shares of some company and the last closing price of their stocks was $30. The fair value of 100 shares would be 100 x 30 = $3,000.

Also, you can calculate the fair value using the discounted cash flows.

For example, you want to examine investment that offers a range of cash flows. And you can’t find anything comparable. So, how to calculate the fair value of the investment?

Let’s say it is an investment of $10,000 and it generates $2,500 cash flow per year. What you have to do is to write down the cash flows for, let’s say, 5 years.

$10,000

1 – $2,500
2 – $2,500
3 – $2,500
4 – $2,500
5 – $2,500

Assume that the rate of return is 6%, and first calculate the discount factor so that you could calculate the discounted cash flows for each year.

For calculation purposes, the percentages need to be transformed into whole numbers. It is done by adding 100 to the number of percents and then dividing that sum by 100, i.e. (100+6)/100=1.06. Now you can calculate the discount factor for each year by rising to power of that year this number, i.e. to the power of 1 for 1st, to power of 2 for 2nd, and so on.

That should look like this:

1.06^1 = 1.06
1.06^2 = 1.12
1.06^3 = 1.19
1.06^4 = 1.26
1.06^5 = 1.34

The next step is to divide every $2,500 cash flow by the discount factor for each of these five years.

$2,500 / 1,06 = $2,359
$2,500 / 1,12 = $2,232
$2,500 / 1.18 = $2,100
$2,500 / 1.26 = $1,984
$2,500 / 1.34 = $1,866

This produces five discounted cash flows of: $2,359, $2,232, $2,119, $1,984, and $1,866.
Add these five numbers to -10,000. That was the initial investment, do you remember? Let’s see the result. The result is 541. This means that using a 6% rate of interest, the fair value of this particular stocks is $541.

Also, you can calculate the fair value for a stock is by using the P/E (price to earnings) ratio.

The formula to calculate the P/E ratio is

the current stock price per share / current earnings per share

What you have to do is to compare P/E ratios among companies from the same industry. For example, if you want to find the fair value for a utility, you have to compare the P/E ratio to other P/E ratios in that industry.

If the company has a high P/E ratio it usually means the company is overvalued. On the other hand, a low P/E ratio shows the company is undervalued. For example, if you hold a stake of shares in a company with a P/E ratio of 4 and the average P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry is 2, you can be sure that your stock is expensive or, in other words, overvalued.

The next thing to do is to modify the stock price to the average P/E ratio. Let’s say the average P/E ratio is 2, and the P/E ratio on your stock is 4. This means the current price is $8 and earnings per share is $2. We know that by following the P/E ratio formula.

Use the P/E calculation to find what the stock price needs to have a P/E ratio of 2.

The equation is

New P/E ratio x Earnings per share

And the answer is 2 x $2 or $4. The fair value for this stock is $4, not $8.

Bottom line

The puzzle of what security is really worth is one of the basic questions in investing. By calculating fair value, you will find the answer, maybe not exactly but you will be very close to it. Although, fair value calculations are essential to any investor’s stock.

Ways to fair value can classify value investors and growth investors.

The growth investors will estimate earnings that can be unstable. On the other hand, value investors will buy stocks at a discount to their fair value. They will wait for the fair value of their investments to rise. But both kinds of investors have to know that their companies can stumble. Also, the company may get significantly bigger which will cause keeping historical growth rates difficult.

The point is to buy stocks that will rise to meet the fair value of the company.

You might find these interesting too:

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3rd October 2019
Stock Investing – The Pros and Drawbacks

5 min read

by G. Gligorijevic

Stock investing isn’t just buy and sell stocks. It is the whole philosophy and math. Well, you have to learn more about the logic behind the stock market.

When you want to buy a stock, that means someone else has to sell it. Be aware, that someone has worked on the numbers and concluded that the wise move is to get out of the position right now. Do you know why that one decided like that? How to be sure you are doing a good job if you pick that stock?

Stock picking is a struggle against other investors.

Maybe they know just like you, maybe more, maybe less.

The basic formula is easy: Pay a value that’s smaller than the long-term, per-share price of the underlying business. The philosophy of investing is in understanding how to determine that value.

Maybe you prefer to be a “growth” investor. So, your focus should be on the analysis of a company’s potential for future profits. You should choose the one growing fastest. As a growth investor, you are interested in great earnings. The P/E or price-to-earnings ratio is a popular metric for valuing stocks. Growth investors often are willing to pay P/Es of 20 or more.

Value investors usually buy stocks with lower P/E ratios. This appears more traditionally. But buying cheap has some risks. Very often when some stock is cheap it is a sign that the company has some problems. Is this true? No! Simply NOT! There is no easy way or formula that helps you to pick a fabulous stock to deal with. You have to research and make a decision.

But maybe you should invest in funds than individual stocks.

Stock investing demands time and intense analysis. It also needs notable cash to create a fully diversified portfolio. A choice is a mutual fund. That will spread your bets between hundreds of stocks.

Stock investing is attractive and enjoyable for a lot of people. If you want to enter the market on your own, you can use funds as the essence of your portfolio. Later, just set aside a small account for your selection of the individual stocks.

One of the main benefits of investing in the stock market is the chance to grow your money. Over time, the stock market performs a rise in value. Yes, the prices of individual stocks rise and fall daily. But, investments in solid companies that are able to grow, tend to make profits for investors. Moreover, investing in many different stocks will boost your wealth by leveraging growth in different areas of the economy. It will bring you a profit even if some of your individual stocks lose value.

Stock investing gives a lot of benefits to investors.

Owning stocks means to take advantage of a growing economy.
How does it come?
That is a kind of chain of good fortune. Everything is connected and logical.
Assume you want to buy a stock you’ve been examining for some time. And finally, they announce a surprise bit of good news and the price rallies sharply higher and so you jump in.
Let’s say, you have a sudden profit on your hands but, the stock reverses. It has retracted back to your entry price. Actually, it has gone beyond your entry price and you are a loser! You may think that it’s just market games and “shaking out weak hands”. So, you decided to hold on, knowing that patience is a trading power. Finally, you’re down further than you expected to be in the stock.
If you were ultra convinced of the upside potential, you may see this as an opportunity to buy more shares at a better price. On the other hand, you may panic and sell as you continue to watch the price trend further against you.

What happened?

Experts developed the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which states that stock prices instantly diminish all news. So, there’s no possible way for a trader to profit from news releases. That experts feel that strongly.

Here is one example.

Maybe two years ago, Samsung announced it is expecting profits to hit record levels in the third quarter. And almost three times as much as the same period the year before.
Following the announcement, their share price dropped.
That might seem counter-intuitive. But there are other factors at play. At the same time as announcing this expected profit win, Samsung’s CEO quit. He told that the company was going through an “unprecedented crisis” and that “a new spirit and young leadership” was needed to respond to the challenges. In this case, the decline in stock price can be understood. You know, if the CEO is worried, perhaps investors should be too.

But sometimes share prices drop on good news and it is really hard to understand why.

Market expectations are always priced into the market price. Say, for example, a company has a forecasted earning per share of $1. They’ve never missed an earnings target. So investors expect the firm will actually earn $1.10 per share. They think it’s currently undervalued. The firm then announces an earnings report of $1.05 per share.

Good news, right? They beat their forecast.

But, crucially, because investors thought the firm should earn more than this $1.05 per share, the stock’s price was bid upwards to a price that reflected earnings expectations. Because the real earnings are less than the current market price, the stock price drops as investors sell off their shares.
This effect can be intensified by investors who completely copy what everyone else is doing. In this case, selling off their shares. Every investor must have the bigger picture. That’s the point.

What you have to do?

If the stock is basically strong, hold the stock despite the stock price going down. It won’t matter much in the long term if the company. Most of the great companies focus on their long-term goals. This means that a few times, they might miss the short-term expectations.
But, short-term interests shouldn’t be ignored completely by the company or investors. Nevertheless, if the company is overall performing good in the long run, then there’s no point of worry. In any business, there will be few difficulties in the short run.
Additionally, do not get connected to short-term expectations. Analysts will keep on making expectations every quarter. It’s their job and this is what they are paid for. If a company keeps on working for the short-term goals, it might never be able to focus on long-term growth.
Overall, if the temporary setbacks are not going to affect the long-term profitability of the company, then ignore the short-term fluctuations and hold your stock.

2nd October 2019
Dow Jones Dropped More Than 300 Points, But Two Stocks Hold Gains

3 min read

The Dow Jones dropped more than 300 points after frustrating economic data stopped an early rally in the stock market on Tuesday. The stock market rally experienced a strong reversal. The rally appeared under more pressure as worsening U.S. manufacturing index activity renewed recession fears. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropped below a buy point, as Treasury yields declined.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined to its lowest level previously seen in June 2009.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) both lost more than 1%. All sectors declined, but industrial stocks were damaged the most.
But some of the Dow Jones Index stocks made the largest gains, Apple (AAPL) and Visa (V). Apple stocks rose for 0,5% and Visa increased by 1,4%. Visa has been consolidating below the 50-day line the past three weeks after pulling back from a 184.17 buy point of a flat base.

Apple scored a new high early and gained as the market reversed. It regained a 221.47 buy point of a flat base and continues in buy range from the entry. The market uptrend is under pressure, so you must be aware that all trading is riskier now.

According to investors.com “investment banks, machinery, and telecom stocks led the downside among IBD’s 197 industry groups.” On the other side, long-term medical care, gold miners and food, and beverages were between the several groups resisting the decline.
Hexcel (HXL) fell 6% to a two-month low, retailer Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) sank 5% in below-average volume.
Israeli medical technology company InMode (INMD) and Visa were some of the few IBD 50 stock winners with increases of 1% or more.

The point is that just one strong market session could upgrade the whole picture, but if another large sell-off occurs could freeze the stock market rally.

China trade discussions will continue next week, but there are possible risks for the weak stock market rally. Investors have been hoping for a China trade suspension of hostilities. That was the reason why the market wasn’t down on Monday.

The added uncertainty to the markets is the Trump impeachment inquiry. For now, it doesn’t make to much damage to the US stock market but investors may become more nervous because of all of that.

Is this a scary start to October?

Markets are already in bubble territory. Dow, S&P experienced the worst day in more than 5 weeks after gloomy US manufacturing report. Manufacturers quoted the US-China trade war as pressing on demand and making materials more expensive, according to the ISM.

“The disappointing data is only fanning long-standing fears of slowing global growth,” said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell.

Stocks didn’t like this data pretty much.

Investors came into Tuesday’s session, with increased emotion around the U.S.- China trade relationships hoping that it will come to an end soon.

But stocks dropped after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) stated U.S. manufacturing activity dropped last month to its lowest level in a decade. The U.S.-China trade concerns caused that. The weak manufacturing data come from Europe too. All of that forced investors to sell equities and bought bonds.
The market recognized the ISM report as a warning the trade war is taking increasing damage to the economy.

What is next?

Yes, Dow Jones dropped but investors are waiting for data from ADP and Moody’s Analytics. They are planned for release on Friday. For investors, it is a kind of preview to the government’s monthly job report. So, we will see.

2nd October 2019
Preferred Stock Advantages Explained

Take advantage of owning these stocks, they are paying guaranteed dividends, but the owner doesn’t have the voting rights

By Guy Avtalyon

Preferred stock signifies an ownership stake in some companies. It is like a share of common stock but less volatile.
But there are more advantages to hold preferred stocks. For example, they are prioritized when it comes to dividends or bankruptcy. But by owning this stock you will not have the same voting rights as owner of common stock. Actually, you will not have them.

Preferred stock is similar to bonds. See, with preferred shares, you will have a fixed dividend in continuity. And you can easily calculate the dividend yield. All you have to do is to divide an amount of dividend in the currency by the current price of the stock. Yield is the effective interest rate you earn when you buy a share of the preferred stock.

Let’s do some math.

Assume a preferred stock has an annual dividend of $6 per share and is trading at $120 per share. So, the yield is $6 divided by $120 which is 0.05. Multiply by 100 to turn to the percentage. The yield is 5%.

6/120 = 0.05

0.05 x 100 = 5

This is regularly based on the standard value ere a preferred stock is sold. It’s generally determined as a percentage of the current market price after the trade starts. This is a difference from a common stock. Common stock has variable dividends that are published by the board of directors and it is never guaranteed. Moreover, a lot of companies don’t pay out to common stocks.

The added difference is that this kind of stock has a par value. It is in correlation with the interest rate. If the interest rate increases, the value of preferred stock drops. Also, when the interest rate decreases, the value of this stock will grow. You will not find a similar situation with common stock since its value is determined by supply and demand in the market.

Why buy preferred stock?

Investors frequently buy preferred stock for the income the dividends give. The dividends for them are higher than those issued for common stock. And the other benefit is notable. If the company has to miss out on a dividend it collects, it still must pay preferred stock dividends before any common stock dividends come to the schedule. That is why they carry less risk than common stock. Preferred stock owners must be paid before common stockholders if the company failed or in case of bankruptcy.

When evaluating the investment potential of preferred stock, it is most important to compare the dividend yield to the yields of the company’s bonds. You will find that preferred stocks often work similarly to bonds.
Preferred stock is a good choice for investors who don’t want to take a big risk. Moreover, it is less volatile than common stock and provides a better flow of dividends.

How to buy preferred stock?

The process is the same as you buy any stock. You can use a broker’s service, doesn’t really matter if it is a discount broker or full-service broker. The main point is that the company has to be publicly-traded, of course. But before you start finding a preferred stock to buy, you must know why should you do that. Why don’t you buy that company’s common stock?
When buying common stock, you’re actually buying a part of ownership in the company. You’ll have voting right as one of the co-owners. On the other hand, if you buy a preferred stock you’ll almost never get voting right.

They have regular dividends payments

When you buy preferred stock, you’ll get regular dividends payments. That is opposite from the owner of common stock that doesn’t have guaranteed dividends. Even a case that the company stops to pay dividends, your unpaid dividends are still yours and once, when the company decides to continue these payments, you’ll receive them.
The other advantage of buying preferred stocks is that your investment will be repaid in full even if the company goes bankrupt.
The owner of common stocks will get nothing instead.

One thing more is present here.

Those stocks give more options to investors. Let’s explain this. Numerous preferred shares are callable. This means the issuer can purchase them at any time. Investors have a true chance for these shares to be called back at a redemption rate. It can be a notable bonus over their purchase price. The market for preferred shares usually assumes callbacks and prices may be bid up respectively.

And we must point out one disadvantage again. Its shareholders regularly do not have voting rights as the owners of common stock. It may be a problem for some investors.

30th September 2019
Trade War Spillover In The Stock Markets

3 min read

The U.S. Treasury announced in a Saturday statement that the administration “is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time.” Following this news, Dow Jones futures grew a bit on Sunday evening, the same happened with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.

Only one day before, Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is thinking about limiting the exposure of US investment to China. Such a decision would have an impact on public pension funds’ exposure to China’s market and limitation for Chinese companies in main stock indexes.

The information about delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges frightened investors. The consequences of the trade war spillover were that Alibaba stock dropped 5.1%, slipping through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. JD.com stock dropped 6% to a bit over its 200-day. Two Chinese IPOs, Pinduoduo slipped 4.2% and Huya stock 9.4% due to trade war spillover. New Oriental Education stock, dropped 6.55%, which is under its 50-day line.

Beijing described possible limitations on U.S. investments in China “the latest attempt at a decoupling,” published in Global Times on Sunday. All reports of Chinese state-owned media stated that the delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges would have deep impact on both, Chinese and US economies.

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Monica Crowley’s, U.S. Treasury assistant secretary for public affairs, stated this weekend that US administration is not thinking to block Chinese companies: “We welcome investment in the United States.”

The trade war between the US and China lasts almost one year. The next round of discussions will be held one week after China’s National Holiday, 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1.

The Chinese economy is the second-largest in the world. Its progress in the field of artificial intelligence and chips is notable. Also, robotics, 5G, energy storage could lead China to be the most powerful in advanced technologies.

What to watch in the stock market in the week ahead?

The next few days will produce some earnings releases, which could give some individual stocks moving.

Costco

Market Cap $125.758B

Its earnings report appear this week. It looks that Costco had benefit throughout the quarter. The analysts estimated they have earnings of around $2.54 per share. Last year it was $2.36. So, the expectations are a 7.6% increase.

Costco will reveal its results on Thursday. The investors are expecting to see good news. This warehouse retailing giant has enjoyed a nice increase in customer traffic lately. In the fiscal fourth quarter, it grew 6% in the U.S. market and over its global sales.

Stitch Fix

Market Cap $1.85B

This company’s earnings release will be revealed on October 1.

Its stock has dropped more than half of its value during the past 12 months. But this online service that gives clothing services has built solid annual income growth in the past 3 years.

Client numbers rose 16.6% in the fiscal third quarter. This is, of course, assuming Stitch Fix keeps its pricing in check. The analysts estimate is calling for $0.04 per share this week. Good news for shareholders.

Constellation Brands

Market Cap $39.511B

The company’s earnings release will be public on October 3.

The company has succeeded to keep a very constant sales trend within an alcohol industry. In the last 5 years, Constellation Brands has grown its earnings from sales. Its investment in Canopy Growth was a weak move since the Canopy didn’t show some good results this year. But the company’s beer segment may show better condition. For now, that is the best part of Constellation Brands’ business.

30th September 2019
How to Identify Market Trends

6 min read

By Guy Avtalyon

Being able to identify stock market trends is a crucial part of your investments and trading. How many times have you heard that the market is trending? Numerous. But did you have the ability to recognize the signs before the market move in some direction?

So, when we say the market is trending we are talking about market moving in one of two directions. When the market is moving up it is Bullish, but when it moves down it is a Bearish trend. There is some misunderstanding toward trends. Let’s say this way, never fight against market trends. That will take you to losses. Rather catch the flow to manage your risk-reward.

It is so important to have ways to identify market trends. Markets can also move within a ‘range’, and they don’t need to be recognized as Bullish or Bearish, rather they are falling sideways. So, you can see we have three possible market directions. Ability to recognize when a market is probably moving out of a trend will also help you.

Assume you are trading while the market is in a Bullish trend. So your focus would be on buying the position. But suddenly the market starts to change and your edge disappears.

It is absolutely scary when you are looking at those changes at your charts. But there are several things that will provide you to know how to identify market trends.

First, let’s make clear what the trends are you looking at.

This is very important. You have to determine the time frame you are looking at. Why is this so important? Assume you are looking at a daily time frame and the market is in a bullish trend. Suddenly, the market moves up. Where is the problem? Your 10 minutes chart shows the bearish trend! Yes, but you must have a bigger picture. The market may be in bullish trend the whole day but in those 10 minutes, it is bearish because it is falling.

That is the nature of markets. They will never go only up or only down.

That’s why the timeframe you are looking at is very important. Just like in sport. Your favorite basketball team is in permanent progress to the top of the table. In the market, it is a bullish trend. But suddenly, your team has a match against some outsider and they lost the game (which usually happen to my favorite team). That is a bearish trend in the market.
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How to Identify Market Trends

Identifying the trend is essential. But you have to be able to associate that trend with your trading. For example, you recognize a market as bullish on the daily timeframe. What is the possible move? Just wait until it comes back within support levels that you expected to be the span where the buyers will continue the trend. Than start to look at the 1-hour timeframe to buy positions. That is how you may adjust your trades with the market trend.

You can identify market trends by applying different kinds of technical analysis. You can use trendlines and technical indicators. But trendlines are the most effective method of verifying that a trend breathes.

Identifying the trends will help you to avoid wrong buy/sell signals. One thing is important to know, the trending indicator will operate better in trending markets, while oscillators are better in sideways trends. Which one to use may define your success rate.

Recognizing Trends

The trends are an overall direction that a particular financial market is moving. To analyze trend you have to use technical analysis to determine direction. Just connect by using trendline all the highs and lows in your charts.

So, let’s see what kind of trends we have:

Uptrend

The uptrend is when you can inline low points sloping upward. The main characteristic of uptrend is higher highs and higher lows.

Downtrend

Connect a series of chart high points sloping downward, and you will have a downtrend. A downtrend is always defined by lower highs and lower lows.

These graphs are simple images in order to have a clear picture. Trendline should be drawn on the candlestick chart. But in any case, to be able to start a trend line you will need at least two points in the market. You may draw the trendline only when the second swing high or low is identified.

Speaking about the candlestick chart, you will see that the majority of trend lines overlap the high or low of a candle. The point is to get the maximum touches without cutting the body of a candle. If the trend line cut the body of a candle you may be sure it is a violation.

Identifying Market Trends

Draw triangles on market swings.

We already mentioned the market swing points. I am free to say that probably the most obvious way to identify a market trend is to follow them. You can do it by drawing triangles.

We already know that higher highs and higher lows relate to a Bullish trend and lower highs and lower to a Bearish trend. By drawing triangles over important market swings you will spot when this is occurring. This helps also to inform you when the market

It will also keep you alert to when the market finish trending and moves into a range, or the trend goes reverses.

Also, you may use the Bill Williams fractals indicator.

It is an excellent tool to identify market trends. This indicator is helpful to spot the market swings. When the arrows are upward that is the high of the swing, when the arrows pointing downwards it is low of swing.

Upward pointing arrows indicate the high of a swing, downward pointing arrows indicate the low of a swing. This is a simple tool that will show you if the market is in a trend. Moreover in what direction, or if it is in a range.

Moving average as help on how to identify market trends

The moving average is one of the most popular methods to identify market trends. When the market is beyond the level of the moving average, it is Bullish. If under, it is Bearish. But this method has some disadvantages. It depends on the period you are looking at.

One moving average can miss out on great parts of trends so you will end up struggling against the trend. It is always smart to apply two moving averages. One has to be slower the other faster. And, when the faster one is above slower the market is bullish when it is below the market is bearish.

Use trend lines

That’s why we had to explain the trend lines. Trend lines are a great tool to identify a market trend. Also, they will highlight potential trading zones inside the trend. The market is in trend when it respects the trend line.

When the market breaks the trend line it is moving out of the trend into a range, or into a trend reversal.

Bottom line

Markets consist of many different varieties of trends. How to identify market trends will principally define the success or downfall of your investing. No matter if you are a long or short-term investor.

27th September 2019
BTC Price Will Surge Again

2 min read

Yes, the Bitcoin prices displaying a massive drop on Tuesday. Well, there is good news too. Crypto investors continue bullish! So the BTC price will surge again.

As BTC recorded a huge fall and fell about 13%, investors and traders persist optimistically. They expect the bull market to recover quickly.

Bitcoin price made a sharp drop yesterday (September 25) falling almost 16%. The daily open was at $9,691 but recorded a new low at $8,164. The price support was broken at $9,090 leaving the area that it has been trading in since June.

In doing so, price broke strong support at $9,090 and exited the area that it has been trading in since June. Bitcoin’s price action continues bearish under this scope.

But nothing is finished. Today’s chart (at the time of writing) shows some uptrend. A small one but still.

The larger picture reveals regular price action with prior corrections.

You wouldn’t like to miss this: MONETIZING BITCOIN

Traders-Paradise wrote about the second-largest German exchange in Stuttgart which started Bitcoin trading. Also, Bakkt starts and SoFi, a finance management firm is launching a crypto trading platform.

Are people still micro wise? Well, not all thankfully. BTC price will surge again.

The BTC/USD pair is trading at the $8,407 after hitting a low at $8,125. In the past two days, the price has passed below the SMA200. Dangerous? Yes, but the typical race for Bitcoin. For unexperienced in Bitcoin, the bullish momentum will continue as long as the daily close is above the long term average. The indicator stays on the bullish side of the indicator. You can check it.

BTC/USD needs strong support levels, instead, it may fall even more since BTC/USD had another heavily bearish day on Wednesday. The disturbing element is that the daily confluence indicator doesn’t show any support levels until $8,100.

But even if it goes lower its still a good entry for longs. It is expected the volume further fails on a macro scale. But the price may consolidate if the trading starts again.

Bitcoin’s price is a distraction from the value. Everyone was yelling about Bitcoin’s drop past two days. What is about today? It has recovered.

Don’t judge based on hash rate data. It is an estimation. It isn’t exactness. Until traders start to trade it again the price of Bitcoin may stay on the low level. The point is, Bitcoin may drop slightly more in the next few weeks, with frequent ups and downs but to the end of the year, it may surge again, and more than anyone can expect. That’s the nature of Bitcoin and the beauty of the game

26th September 2019
European ETFs: Invest in the World’s Biggest Regional Economy

by Guy Avtalyon

European ETFs give a large diversification in mutual funds and with a bit of the fee. If you buy one security as a foreign investor you will have exposure to a lot of firms in the EU. Why Europe is interesting for investors? First of all, some of the biggest companies are located in Europe. So, it is a great opportunity for foreign investors to invest in EU ETFs. The European Union factors about 20% of the world GDP, therefore it looks like one of the most valuable investment targets in the world.

Benefits of Investing in European ETFs

Europe is one of the best-shielded business areas around the globe. To be honest, there are still some risks after the crisis in 2009. The companies in Eastern Europe have better growth potential than Western Europe. Anyway, having EU ETFs in your investment portfolio is a great choice and I’ll try to explain why that is.

First of all, in Europe are some of the most successful companies. For example, a lot of US investors are very interested in them. Moreover, Europe is consists of several areas. That makes European ETFs very good for diversifying a stock portfolio without the risk which developing markets may give. The added quality is that the EU is honestly low-risk. Just compare it with Asia, for example.

Many investors are now attempting to enter the European Union market through mergers and acquisitions. Also, by investing in its main businesses. The EU is, in fact, welcoming foreign investment.

Here is full information that will help investors about investing in European Union.

Risks of investing

Of course, there are some risks involved.

The main risk is that the members of the EU are very connected and dependent on each other. At first glance, nothing is bad with that but if a crisis occurs it will spillover among them, and business in the union may fall down like a house of cards. As I mentioned above, Wester Europe economies have slower growth and they may seem less attractive for investing. Especially for investors who want more risky investments.

Where to find: Top European ETFs

MSCI European ETF (NYSE: VGK)

Vanguard is available in Europe. Its European funds are based in Ireland. Vanguard allows non-residents to buy their ETFs/funds through a broker. So you can not directly do it through them. Vanguard’s ETF is a good option but it involves currency exchange. You can simply open an account with any broker with access to the NYSE ARCA. That is the stock exchange where Vanguard ETFs trade. The rest is simple, buy it just like with any other international stock.

iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)

A lot of investors favor “tracker” funds. They allow you low-cost investments. But not all tracker funds are low cost. Moreover, the fund charge is not all you pay, you will have to pay the broker or fund platform too. The good news is that as your portfolio grows the broker will charge you less on a sliding scale.

SPDR DJ Euro STOXX 50 ETF (NYSE: FEZ)

FEZ includes the 50 biggest EU companies but the large-caps from countries that don’t use the euro, including the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden, are not included. But, FEZ’s portfolio includes companies from France and Germany. As a difference from other EU funds, it does not hedge euro exposure.

European ETFs provide the most comfortable approach to get exposure to European markets and the easiest access to invest in Europe. In comparison to buying foreign stocks directly, it is for sure.

Further, European ETFs are an excellent method to diversify your stock portfolio with low-risk investments. To be honest, I have to say that European ETFs will not suit every investor. Risk seeking investors wouldn’t like them, or for younger investors, European markets are not volatile enough. Yes, there is pretty much a lack of excitement.

26th September 2019