Tag: stock market

All stock market related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

  • Superstition In the Stock Market May Lead You to Lose the Shirt

    Superstition In the Stock Market May Lead You to Lose the Shirt

    Superstition In the Stock Market
    Stevie Wonder wrote in his famous song:
    Very superstitious
    Writing’s on the wall
    Very superstitious
    Ladder’s about to fall
    Thirteen-month-old baby
    Broke the looking glass
    Seven years of bad luck
    Good things in your past

    Superstition is so live in the stock market that you can barely believe. Imagine that it is Friday 13, just like it was in April, September, and December this year. Some people, especially scientifically-minded, would roll the eyes. But, despite the fact that Friday 13th is just a day in the calendar and it may occur several times in one year, some investors truly believe that it is a bad-luck day. 

    When enough investors share this foolish belief, stock prices can be changed but not in the investors’ favor.

    But do superstitions really affect the stock markets? 

    Some studies revealed that people are more risk-averse when thinking about Friday13.
    One study from 2005 discovered that hesitation to do business on this day ends in a loss for the US economy of almost $900 billion. Does this scare affect stock prices? Believe or not, yes.

    First superstition: Friday 13th

    According to a study, returns on Friday 13th are lower compared with other days.

    This Friday 13th effect was broad spread among numerous investors until 1980 but has disappeared. The reason is simple: automated trading erased the “Friday 13th effect”. 

    But it so funny to talk about Wall Street superstitions. So let’s proceed.

    Superstition In the stock market No2: Did you know anything about the witching hour?

    Several years ago I found an article written by the man who worked as a broker on Wall Street. I am sorry, I didn’t remember his name. But what I remember is the witching hours are between 2 and 3 PM. Superstition linked to this part of the day (notice, it was on a daily base) was related to market close. If the market sold off at that time, it was a sure sign that the market will be closed on a positive mark. In that interval, from 2 to 3 PM, he and his colleagues were maniacally buying stocks. Just to provide a stronger close.  

    It worked until it didn’t. They didn’t leave the stats.

    Superstition In the Stock Market No3: Sell on Rosh Hashanah and buy on Yom Kippur

    The superstition works like this: on Rosh Hashanah, which is the first day of Jewish New Year investors should sell some of their positions and buy them back on Yom Kippur. This year Rosh Hashanah began on the evening of Sunday, September 29 and ended on the evening of Tuesday, October 1. 

    Do you believe that this trade works? Well, yes. More often than not. But for Jewish. Maybe you should try to sell some of your positions on January 1 or on Christmas or on Islamic New Year. In 2020 it will begin in the evening of Wednesday, August 19 and ends in the evening of Thursday, August 20

    But I am not so sure, dates may vary. 

    Chinese new year will begin on Saturday, January 25, 2020. 

    Did you know that for one part of Orthodox the New Year actually begins on January, 14? Confused? It is just a calendar. But if it works for Jewish why it doesn’t work for others? There is no reason. The only thing to consider is, do you have to trade according to the Jewish calendar or you can use any.

    What I learned during my life is: about superstition and taste is worthless to argue. Take it or leave it.

    Superstition No 4: Super Bowl theory

    This theory goes that the Dow Jones will have a good year if a National Football Conference (NFC) team wins the Super Bowl. But if the American Football Conference (AFC) team wins it will end the year lower.

    For those with a lack of knowledge about American football, the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC) are parts of the National Football League (NFL). Honestly, European football is simpler. 

    From 1967 to 2003 this superstition showed it was accurate 68%.  Several years in a row AFC teams were winning the Super Bowl and that was a period of economic growth, but who cares?

    Let’s ask the stats.

    It was 1967 when one AFC team won the first Super Bowl. During the following period, AFC teams have won 11 times, if you check the stock market result you will be surprised. In 6 of those 11 years, the stock market was dropped. On the other side the stats aren’t so favorable, NFC won Super Bowl more than 30 times and Dow Jones didn’t advance in each of them.

    October Effect

    This one is a bit harder to rebut. 

    The October effect is a market anomaly. The stocks tend to decrease during October. Honestly, it is mainly a psychological effect rather than a real wonder. The stats show something different than this theory. 

    But…

    October has this reputation thanks to Panic in 1907, Black Monday, Black Tuesday and Black Thursday in 1929, and Black Monday in 1987.

    Black Monday, 1987 that happened on October 19. The Dow fall 22.6% in one day. It was possibly one of the most unlucky days for investors and the stock market. 

    Despite the scary title, this effect is not statistically exact. From a historical view, October has seen the end of bear markets more than it witnessed the beginnings. But, investors see this month as dangerous and they are selling, and that sentiment creates possibilities to buy on the other side. So, superstition or not, while one sees the end, the other will see the beginning.

    Bottom line

    Irrationality and superstition in investing will always cause lower returns. Traders, whether they admit it or not, are superstitious. Some will have a happy pen, the other lucky shirt or underwear (hard to believe), some will have some other talisman. Superstition in the stock market is broad spread.

    Luckily, many investors and traders are devoted to science, education, and knowledge. 

    As Stevie Wonder wrote: 

    When you believe in things
    That you don’t understand,
    Then you suffer,
    Superstition ain’t the way

    Happy trade!

  • Chinese stocks that will benefit from phase one deal between the US and China

    Chinese stocks that will benefit from phase one deal between the US and China

    Chinese stocks that will benefit from phase one deal between the US and China
    Morgan Stanley believes that IT and Transportation stocks will benefit the most from any de-escalation of trade tensions.

    Morgan Stanley says there are some Chinese stocks that will benefit from phase one deal between the US and China.

    Almost half of them belong to the IT sector. This sector suffered in the trade war because the companies took place on tariff lists. Also, some of them are from the consumer sector.
    Morgan Stanley said in last week’s report: “These two sectors saw the biggest scale of valuation re-rating based on their previous reaction to de-escalation events.” 

    These 29 stocks have significant exposure to U.S. revenues, according to this investment bank.

    The so-called phase one trade deal, the US President and President of China, was made several days ago. It is a kind of initial agreement but nevertheless, it caused some optimism. Anyway, it is progress in this situation. The US President said in his tweet on Saturday that the US and China would  “very shortly” confirm the deal.

    Morgan Stanley wrote: “We believe IT/Internet-related and Transportation stocks will benefit the most from any de-escalation of trade tensions.” The airlines’ stocks or in general, transportation  stocks, is going to benefit from, as bank wrote, from “strengthened CNY/USD” and “improved global trade outlook.”

    What are the Chines stocks that will benefit?

    First on the list could be AAC Technologies, with 58% publicity exposure. It supplies Apple. Further, Lenovo. This laptop producer has 31% exposure to the US revenues. Also, Samsonite could benefit. 

    As much as Alpha Group, Goodbaby International, Nexteer Automotive Group, Ningbo Joyson Electronic,  Regina Miracle International, Zhongji Innolight, Sunwoda Electronic, WuXi AppTec, Crystal International Group, SMIC, Bestway Global Holding, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech, Cosco Shipping, Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical, Lens Technology, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium, GoerTek, WuXi Biologics Cayman, GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing,  Luxshare Precision Industry, Shenzhen Sunway Communication, Universal Scientific, FIT Hon Teng, or Legends Holdings are also Chinese stocks that will benefit.

    All of them are publicly listed on Chinese exchanges.

    Morgan Stanley warned that the final outlook for the sector depends on the talks’ “dynamics” among the U.S. and China, including the signing of a deal.
    The bank said that both countries have been so close to signing a deal several times in the past 18 months but it didn’t happen.

    Some US stocks could benefit too

    Intel, the largest producer of semiconductor products in the world. Also, Harsco, a service, and engineered products corporation. Diodes Incorporated, a leading producer and supplier of discrete and analog semiconductor products could benefit from the deal between the US and China, for example.

    Unexpectedly, on Dec 11, China made new offers to the US to end the trade deadlock. China proposed to reduce tariffs on U.S. vehicles from 40% to 15%.

    It seems that both sides are looking to end this trade war. For example, President Trump has offered to mediate in the case of Huawei’s executive whose arrest had increased trade tensions.

    More about China’s economy

    China’s economy began this decade in growth and it looks like it will end with the slowdown, the worst seen since 1990.

    Well, policymakers have the chance to avoid a crisis and they know how to do that. The question is, do they want. For investors, it is a buying opportunity after Chinese stocks dropped to record lows in comparison to world peers.

    The main topic for China for the next 10 years is it going to fix these problems more quickly and dynamic way. The other choice is to have them forever.
    It is surprising how they maintain the pace of growth with the state sector involved. The progress away from a state-controlled economy to a more private-sector is lacking.
    Further, China has very little or low motivation to allow complete fluidity of capital flows into and out of the country.

    Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University recently commented on Bloomberg:

    “China was unlikely to experience a financial crisis and a sharp depreciation of the currency. I think the market didn’t understand that these are mainly balance sheet events, and as long as China’s financial system was closed and its regulators powerful, Beijing could easily extend and restructure liabilities so as to prevent a crisis.”

    Bottom line

    Supplies, Technology,  and Industrial are Chinese stocks that will benefit the most from ending a trade war. So, pay close attention to the stocks from those sectors and make your investment choice.

  • The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming
    The packaged-food giant reached rock bottom and positive signs are unfortunately weak. They are not enough to warrant a buy right now.

    The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported third-quarter 2019 financial results on October 31. The company reported lower net sales and higher input costs. So, the third quarter performances for this company were a lot below their potential but still, the company showed growth in comparison to the first six months this year.

    Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio said: “We are making good progress in identifying and addressing the root causes of past performance, as well as setting our strategic direction. Although there is still much work ahead, we’re encouraged by our improving performance, and are even more confident in our ability to turn around the Company and set a path of long term growth and profitability.”

    The Kraft Heinz Company results

    Net sales were $6.1 billion, and it was 4.8% below than it was in the same period last year.
    Net income increased to $899 million and diluted EPS increased to $0.74. Adjusted EBITDA declined 7.8% to $1.5 billion. The drop was caused by the drop in the United States and Canada, but there are higher overall corporate expenses also.
    The Board of Directors of the Kraft Heinz Company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share of common stock. It will be payable on December 13, 2019.
    The KHC stock was traded at $30.54 on Friday, November 22, which is an increase of 0.99%.

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    Should you buy the Kraft Heinz Company stock?

    The analysts offering 12-month price predictions for Kraft Heinz Co have a median target of $32.00. Their high valuation is at $38.00 and a low at $23.00. The median shows a 4.78% rise from the current price.

    The recommendation is to hold stock in Kraft Heinz Co. 

    But the other group of analysts is pretty much sure that the Kraft Heinz stock couldn’t have good returns. That’s the reason why they claim that this stock is a bad and high-risk long-term investment. Today’s quote (Nov 25) for Kraft Heinz is $30.53 which is lower than on Friday. 

     

    Traders-Paradise opinion

    Having the current price of KHC stock in our mind and with the knowledge that the stock price had a downtrend for the past 1 year, we in Traders-Paradise are not sure is this stock is good as a long-term investment. We are close to thinking that this stock could easily drop significantly in the future hitting a decline of over 100% and to end up worthless. So, we suggest staying away from this stock if you are seeking a new addition to your investment portfolio. This is important especially if you are a new player on the market and don’t have enough experience. 

    This stock is trading in bear markets, which is harder for new traders.

    But if your plan is to buy and hold Kraft Heinz stock for a short time, for example, the next 10 days or two weeks, it can be a good choice. As we can see, the stock price could hit around $35 in the next several days.

     

    Bottom line

    The price line shows the possibility of zigzag running to the end of this year. After the end of this year, we are afraid that this stock will gain further declines.

    Our opinion comes from the suspicion that the company is not able to answer the challenges of predicting consumer demands. In its latest report, we couldn’t find that the company is ready to offer new products or to react to rivals’ improvements.
    The Kraft Heinz Company survives 150 years of challenging and produced some of the products well-known over the world. Yes, it is one of the largest global food companies, but the new era is already here and the company has to catch the moment.
    The point is that General Mills or Nestle are better choices in our opinion.
    We can recognize some possible upward movements, but they are weak and don’t provide enough reasons to buy this stock now.

     

  • Recession Fears Overflowed Americans

    Recession Fears Overflowed Americans

    Recession Fears Overflowed Americans
    42% of Americans plan to reduce spending, according to the research held by the Consumer Education team at LendEDU
    32% reported having no money in an emergency fund and 55% of respondents reported having $1,000 or less.
    37% believe their finances are too low to resist a recession 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Recession fears overflowed not only Americans, but the whole world is also in it too. In late August, the Consumer Education team at the LendEDU conducted a nationally-representative survey of Americans to gauge their sentiment towards the situation of an economic recession. The aim of this nationally-representative survey of Americans to gauge was to better understand how the risk of a recession may change consumer spending and investing habits has been said from the Team. 

    And if you have some fears and concerns about the coming recession, you are in the right club. According to this survey, more than half of Americans are somewhat or completely worried about a recession and willing to change their habits.

    The survey revealed that fears of a recession are modifying habits and, also, that many Americans haven’t positive feelings about their current financial conditions.

    Here are some data from the survey:

    42% of respondents are planning to spend less and save more due to recession fears
    32% of respondents reported having no money in an emergency fund and 55% of respondents reported having $1,000 or less. The median amount was $712.
    37% of respondents believe their finances are too weak to withstand a recession and 22% are unsure.

    HERE IS THE FULL REPORT

    We are all afraid of recession

    Even if we are living in a safe-heaven with a booming economy the question of when, not if, a recession will come. The history isn’t helpful, it is contrary. All we know about recession is scary.
    When it occurs, many people could be in a very hard financial situation. Some of them are still trying to stand on their feet after the Great Recession in 2008. 

    That is our reality. The media are full of reports about recession and how fast we will be faced with it. Massive unemployment, doom, misery, and, of course, the stock market breakdown. That is exactly what media reports say.

    To make clear what the recession is. When the GDP is negative for two or more running quarters. The decline in personal income or corporate profits, or when the employment decreases, also the production or retail sales are falling, we can say we have a recession.

    Many factors may cause a recession. But one thing you have to keep in mind, a recession is only part of the business cycle. And it never lasts forever. The economy will never fall forever.

    Why do recession fears grow?  

    The fears come from a willingness to survive. Sounds controversy, but when you are faced with something you don’t know, or you don’t understand, or you already had a bad experience, you feel fear. But the other side of your brain commands you must survive. So, what are you doing? You are going to find a way to meet your brain’s expectations. Well, when we are afraid of recession the first thing we can do is to cut our expenses if our salaries are decreasing. That means, we have to change our habits. 

    And this LendEDU survey showed exactly that. The majority prefer to change their habits in order to survive a possible recession. 

    But when it comes to their investments some intriguing things arose. On a question from the mentioned survey: “Recently, there has been talk about the possibility of an economic recession. While a recession is far from certain, are you planning to change your investment allocation (ex. stocks, bonds, etc.) or investment preferences?”

    The majority of participants responded that they would not change investment allocation.

    Here are the answers:

    No, I am planning to continue investing per usual (44%)
    Yes, I am planning to invest more conservatively (16.1%)
    Yes, I am planning to invest more aggressively (3.8%)
    Unsure, or none of the above (36.1%) 

    Let’s say that 70% of this 44 % have a well-diversified portfolio. That is in the best case. The other 30% maybe are not informed about how dangerous can be if they don’t change the investment allocation in time of recession or awaiting it.

    Recession fears 

    The stock market can also warn of an approaching recession, but that’s not always the case. The member of the Traders-Paradise team has a witty remark on this, saying that the stock market has guessed ten out of five recessions. Yes, it is a joke but in some cases, the stock market can forecast the recession.

    The inverted yield curve, for instance, can show that there will be a recession but not when. One thing is certain, the market can move but the economy couldn’t be changed overnight. The bad data has to be present in the market for a longer period than one month and not even than you cannot be sure that recession is coming. 

    Claudia Sahm, a Federal Reserve economist suggested a method to detect a recession more quickly. In a new paper, she introduced a system to more quickly detect and react to a recession. The full paper is here

    Who can say for indisputable when the next recession will happen? No-one. But if you have recession fears, you are in the great club. A lot of surveys show that Americans are afraid that a new recession will come soon and they are taking some steps as a response. The recession fears are well-known in the whole world. We all feel fears of a recession. 

    So, Americans, you are not alone.

  • Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will merge with PSA Groupe, owner of Peugeot automobiles

    Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Groupe PSA (Peugeot is the largest PSA brand), have agreed to continue a merger. That would form the fourth-largest carmaker in the world. Their boards are working together on a new relationship. The Wall Street Journal reported the companies are moving forward with a merger. Both companies confirmed this news.

    The merger will give shareholders of each group equal ownership in the new entity.

    On Thursday morning both companies stated that their boards have a mandate to finalize the negotiations in the next few weeks, which means FCA will not tie-up with Renault as was thought this summer.

    The merger would create a company with revenues of €170bn, with an operating profit of over €11bn and vehicle sales of 8.7m. That would lead them ahead of General Motors and Hyundai-Kia in sales. The new potential entity would have a market value of between €45-50bn.

    The model of the merger is a 50-50 all-stock.

    PSA is listed on the Euronext Paris stock exchange.

     Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Since 2014, FCA is officially listed on the NYSE.

     

    After the Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger 

    When the two companies do a merger, PSA chief executive Carlos Tavares is assumed to lead that new group while John Elkann, Fiat Chrysler’s chairman will hold the same position at the new entity.
    Despite this speed, a final agreement of merger needs time and regulatory scrutiny.

    According to Reuters, a merger between FCA and PSA could build a “$50-billion giant better placed to tackle a host of costly technological and regulatory challenges facing the global auto industry.” Details were not published, but some aspects have known.

    For example, the Journal published that the new company would be “legally domiciled in the Netherlands,” with “operational headquarters in the U.S., France, and Italy.”
    Further details and any influence on employment are not yet transparent. The known fact is that FCA has plans to add nearly 5,000 jobs to the Detroit factory to build SUVs. So, the obvious conclusion is that a merger would eventually help FCA in Detroit.

    It isn’t a secret that the Peugeot Group has plans to re-enter the U.S. market. The merger with FCA would provide it through the Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram dealer network.
    To adjust the value of the two companies, the PSA shareholders should get about a €3bn dividend from the sale of the 46% stake in parts carmaker Faurecia.
    FCA shareholders will receive a €5.5bn ($6.12 billion) cash payout and incomes from the sale of its robot-making Comau unit, estimated at between €200m to €300m.

    New headquarters

    The new group will be based in the Netherlands, a neutral location, where FCA is domiciled and listed in Paris, Milan and New York. The Financial Times reported the FCA will “continue to maintain a significant presence in the current operating head-office locations in France, Italy and the US.”

    Around €3.7bn in predicted annual run-rate synergies are targeted, 80% during the first 4 years. The total one-time cost of achieving the synergies is estimated at €2.8bn, the two companies revealed in the statement.

    Bottom line

    Carmakers are facing large investments in electric cars. That is the reason behind the merge. Costs. This merger would create one of the biggest carmakers groups in the world with well-known brands Citroen, Jeep, Opel, Alfa Romeo, Peugeot, and Vauxhall. This has the potential to be a true rival to Volkswagen, Toyota and the Renault-Nissan Alliance.

    The merger of those two companies looks as wise given the global competition, capital power, and industry complexity from autonomous technologies.

    This could create a global automotive leader.

  • Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    The PEG ratio is one of the most popular metrics. It is so easy to calculate it. It never takes more than 10 secs even if you are not good at math. 

    But, what do you think, is this extremely simple metric, this PEG ratio really useful?

    Let’s see. Let’s examine it a bit more on some examples.

    First of all, the PEG ratio or the price/earnings to growth ratio is a stock valuation measure. Investors use it to evaluate a company’s performance and investment risk. It is a measure, so it can be calculated. 

    When the PEG ratio value is 1 we can say there is an excellent bond between the company’s market value and its expected earnings growth. If the PEG ratio is higher than 1, the stock is overvalued. But when the PEG ratio is lower than 1, the stock is undervalued.

    The formula for PEG ratio is:

    PE Ratio (Price/Earnings) / Expected Growth Rate = PEG Ratio

    Assume we are examining two stocks with different characteristics

    Stock A company: 

    price – $20/share
    earnings – $4/share
    expected EPS growth – 5%

    Stock B company: 

    price – $40/share
    earnings – $4/share
    expected EPS growth = 20%

    For stock A company

    P/E ratio = $20/$4 = 5
    PEG ratio = 5/5 = 1

    For stock B company

    P/E ratio = $40/$4 = 10
    PEG ratio = 10/20 = 0.5

    If we study the P/E ratio for valuation plans, we will discover that the stock B company has an advantage because it has a P/E ratio that is 50% less than that stock A company has. But if you find that company A is going to improve its earnings 5 times faster than company B, you may modify your opinion. If you use the price to earnings growth, you will see that the stock A company trades at a lower PEG ratio than stock B company. So, what can we conclude? Company A stock may give a better value.

     

    But is that really true?

    Well, there are some weaknesses connected to the PEG ratio. Earnings growth is not an isolated thing in the market minds. To get a whole picture of the stock value you have to take care of many factors such as cash flow, dividends, revenue growth, etc.

    Further, when it comes to “growth” in the phrase “price/earnings to growth ratio” you will be faced with one problem when you are trying to value a company. You actually don’t know the rate of earnings growth. In the best case, you can guess or rely on Wall Street analysts. Having thin in mind, your PEG will be as good as your data is.

    Well, something is good with the PEG ratio. It is very useful for smaller companies but for large companies (for example Disney or Ford) where the growth isn’t so important to total returns, it can cheat.

     

    So, is the PEG ratio really useful?

    You have to keep in mind that it isn’t a mathematical result. The method is as good as its inputs. The future growth rate could be the main problem in this PEG formula. When you or any analyst make forecasts about the future it can be wrong.

    To make it clear, it is easy to calculate the PEG ratio for companies with weak growth. But, mature companies with excellent earnings and great dividends, have a slow growth rate. So, such companies will never have a PEG ratio of 1 or less. Right?

    It is almost the same for companies with fast growth.

    For instance, a company growing in a surplus of 30% per year will be incapable to maintain such a growth rate. Can you see how the PEG ratio is as good as its inputs? A huge amount of failures in the future earnings growth rises from a too optimistic or too pessimistic viewpoint for the company or industry. Getting an exact PEG ratio depends on what factors you use in the calculation. You may find that the PEG ratio is incorrect if you use historical growth rates. This one especially can lead to mistakes when future growth varies from the past.

    Bottom line

    Traders-Paradise wants to give some spotlight on the pros and cons of using the PEG ratio. As the answer to a question Is PEG ratio really useful, we can say: the PEG ratio is useful but only when you use it to improve a more precise discounted cash flow analysis or relative valuation.

     

  • AT&T – This Stock Can Beat Any Recession

    AT&T – This Stock Can Beat Any Recession

    AT&T - This Stock Can Beat Any Recession
    Why this stock is a good choice

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Could AT&T really beat a recession? According to historical data, it is a company with very good performances, a true winner. But let’s go a bit deeper.

    The high dividend yield of more than 6% is awesome
    35 years of continuously increasing
    More than 100 million customers in the US and Latin America 

    AT&T Ticker symbol T (NYSE)
    Market Cap $276.278B

    AT&T - This Stock Can Beat Any Recession

    AT&T Inc. has a great history, actually, it is the history of modern civilization. When 1874 Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. Two financial backers found the company that became AT&T. One year later the Bell Telephone Company, the first forerunner company to AT&T, is set up and issues stock to the seven principal shareowners. In 1946 AT&T started offering pre-cellular mobile telephone service. With only three channels available for operation, it was able to provide12 to 20 simultaneous calls in a whole area. But still…

    Next year AT&T develops the theory of cellular telephony. At that time, the technology to realize the theory did not yet exist. Actually, AT&T pioneered almost everything in telephony and communications. 

    A century and a half long history, visions, development, continuously ups, beating the crisis, and becoming greater and greater. 

    AT&T stock today

    Today, AT&T Inc. is one of the best investments you can imagine. The company offers various services like cable, wireless, satellite TV, and broadband telecommunications. This means the company has an extremely well-diversified portfolio. Revenue at more than $170 billion was up by 18% in the most recent quarter. In the same period earnings per share expanding 1.2%. 

    The company’s important $85 billion investment in Time Warner will provide AT&T access to mass-media brands such as HBO, CNN, TBS,  and TNT. Additional competitive edge comes from programming from the NBA, the NFL, MLB. Also, its acquisition of DirecTV in 2015, constituted it among the world’s biggest media companies. The management’s expectations are that this will produce earnings per share of $3.60 by the end of the fiscal year.

    AT&T dividends

    The annual ongoing dividend makes it a top pick for income investors.

    Those businesses give AT&T a wide moat, but it still has gaps. The company’s long term debt is about $158 billion, reported last quarter. The company is maybe too large scope and its wireless growth is a bit slow, the news about the number of its pay-TV customers is not good. 

    Moreover, the activists are forcing AT&T to consider some new opportunities for streamlining its stretched out business. First on the list is a spin-off of DirecTV. 

    Several weeks ago Elliott Management revealed its stake in AT&T and pushed the company to lower costs and make management reforms. One of them is to boost the stock price. Elliott stated its programs, which incorporate an important study of assets that could be traded or spun off, could raise the stock by at least 60% by the end of 2021.

    Relationship with Elliott Management 

    On Thursday, 17/10/19,  AT&T shares rose 0.74% in premarket trading to $38.09. The stock has increased 32.48% year to date and 16.34% during the past 52 weeks.
    The agreement could be reached very soon, maybe by the end of this month. But there are possibilities for agreement to fall apart, also. We will see.

    Nevertheless, analysts anticipate AT&T’s revenue to stay approximately the same next year and that earnings could rise just 2%. Those increase rates look weak, but the stock pays a yield of 5.5%. It’s also boosted its dividend annually for over 35 years.
    The company spent just 50% of its free cash flow on its dividend over the past 12 months. It expects to produce over $28 billion in free cash flow this year. That will be up from $22.4 billion in 2018. 

    AT&T and 5G 

    That could have an important influence on the company’s outlook and earnings next year. AT&T already started deploying 5G in 2018. In April this year, 19 cities had access to the company’s 5G network.  AT&T says the network will be more broadly available across the country next year.

    Investing in AT&T is a great opportunity to grow and there is an extraordinary dividend too. Having its history in mind and its penchant for developing new technologies, AT&T is the obvious winner. Moreover, it is a company that can beat any recession.

  • Invest in Saudi Arabia

    Invest in Saudi Arabia

    Invest in Saudi Arabia
    The Saudi Arabian economy, one of the strongest and most stable in the region, and has started a phase of transition. That is a great opportunity for investors.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Invest in Saudi Arabia can be profitable but it is connected with some drawbacks. Saudi Arabia is the biggest economy in the Middle East. Its economy is growing, but at a more moderate rate than earlier, for example, during the oil growth at the beginning of this decade. Saudi Arabia’s government is spending about 7% to US$295 billion this year to encourage economic growth.

     

    The economy is still supported by rich oil reserves, but oil prices are at the lowest in the past decade. 

    The Saudi government has endorsed a national plan called ‘Vision 2030’. This plan aims to modernize and diversify the economy. They have entrusted a huge quantity of assets to the Public Investment Fund (PIF). The goal is to increase employment, especially in the private sector, in retail, healthcare, and education.

    Foreign investments are welcome too. To encourage them, the government opened the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange, named Tadawul. 

    Tadawul

    Tadawul is the only securities exchange in Saudi Arabia with about 150 listed companies and itis controlled by the Capital Market Authority. The exchange is weighted towards the financial services and energy industries but covers many other industries. 

    The Tadawul All Share Index (TASI),  is very similar to the S&P 500. 

    The foreign investment rules are now more liberal than ever. The most important, listings and capital raises in Saudi Arabia were strong over the earlier year, while capital markets in other regional and oil-driven economies have dried up.

    Saudi Arabia can be a very attractive investment target when oil prices are rising. At the same time, it is the trickiest part. The country is depending on crude oil and it is a limited source. Despite the government’s efforts, the diversification in other industries may not show the sustained result. We will see. But there are other benefits of investing in Saudi Arabia.

    Relying on oil has some crucial benefits. Oil revenues are directed to the economic development programs managed by the government funds. Further, the government has already taken steps to privatize some industries, for example, telecom and electricity. Actually, they want to open up their market to fresh investment from foreign investors and especially in non-energy markets.

    Where to invest in Saudi Arabia

    Saudi Arabia has currently over 500 domestic funds in operation. That is the largest number of funds in the Middle East by a large margin. You can invest in asset classes such as listed equities, money market instruments, and corporate and sovereign debt. Also, private funds invest in real estate. That is the main asset for high net worth and institutional Saudi investors. Nowadays, there is an increase in private equity and venture capital due to the support of the CMA, SMEA, and other government authorities and various stimulus programs. 

    Saudi Arabia adopted seven Guiding Principles for Investment Policymaking in 2019. It includes among others, non- discrimination, investment protection, investment sustainability, transparency, protection of public policy concerns. And foreign investors are there.

    For example, Aubin Group from the UK invested $743 million, DuPont, and Alphabet. 

    The stock of foreign direct investment rose last year and reached $230 billion. Foreign investments are essentially located in the chemical industry, tourism, fuel, automobiles, etc.

    The case of Saudi Aramco

    With a net income, last year of $111.1 billion, Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s oil company, and the world’s most profitable company is not listed in Tadawul.

    And the criteria for listing on the Tadawul aren’t as rigorous as some other exchanges like the London Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange, for example.

    “What we have always said is that Aramco is ready for listing whenever the shareholders make a decision to list,” Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser told recently to reporters at the World Energy Conference in Abu Dhabi.

    “The primary listing is to list locally but we are ready also for listing outside in other districts,” Nasser added.

    Why invest in Saudi Arabia

    If you want to invest in Saudi Arabia you should know some things. Saudi Arabia is ranked as 5th in the world for fiscal freedom. Also, it is the 3rd most rewarding tax system in the world. This country is among the 20 biggest economies and the biggest in the Middle East. It is one of the world’s fastest-growing countries and the largest free market in the Middle East. Also, Saudi Arabia is the biggest recipient of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) among the Arab countries. The downside of investing in Saudi Arabia can be limited resources. But you can find plenty of companies to invest in. For example, it is recommended buying these stocks: THOB AL ASEEL CO., or ABDULLAH SAAD MOHAMMED ABO MOATI FOR BOOKSTORES CO., or BAAZEEM TRADING CO. Check them.

    But stay tuned, there will be more about Saudi Arabia companies good to invest in.

  • How to profit from The Stock Market Plunging?

    How to profit from The Stock Market Plunging?

    The Stock Market Is Plunging But You Can Profit From It

    By Guy Avtalyon

    The stock market is plunging but will it crash or not is still unknown. It isn’t easy to predict the stock market crash because it occurs suddenly. The point is to be prepared for such a scenario and here are several ways on how to do so.

    I don’t want to frighten you, but we have to talk about the stock market plunging.

    The volatility of the markets is back again. Actually, the market is plunging. That is the data from the first six days in October. The S&P 500 has dropped a total of 83 points. Now it is almost 115 points lower than in September. Having this in mind, the trade war and the inverted yield curve, also, let us know how not to speak about a recession. 

    The stock market is plunging

    These gaps are standard. For the last 70 years, there were 37 corrections in the S&P 500. If our counting is good that is almost every second year. And mentioned drops were about 10%. Now, we have 5% and such were more common in history.

    This is the price we have to pay for long-term wealth making. So, you must understand that long-term investors have an advantage against the short-term since they would infrequently experience continuing damage from stock market corrections. Time and patience, wait for a bull market rally. It will nullify the correction in the stock market. Anyway, the point of long-term investing is to buy and hold. Hold on to your stocks, that is the key to winning in the long run.

    I warned you how difficult this year can be. But when investors’ fears overwhelm the market and the stock market is plunging, there is still something you can do.

    Is a safe-haven stock right move?

    Yes, you can thrive during the stock market correction if you buy safe-haven stocks. For example, buy gold. The gold is a store of value, so it is a safe-haven asset.

    The truth is that you will not gain a lot of profit by holding gold for a long time. It is a physical commodity, there is no dividends. So think about buying a stake of shares in some companies that produce the jewelry or anything of gold instead. Also, a good choice is to buy shares of mining. This is also a suitable alternative when the stock market is plunging and getting lower.

    Stocks with low volatility

    Companies that provide constant profits, pay a dividend, and have low volatility can be very beneficial when the course in the market turns. Some of them will give you yield much bigger than the yield of a 10-year Treasury bond, for example. Find some company with the old fashioned model of business. Yes, it can be boring but in the long run, it is excellent. The point is to survive the market plunging.

    Basic goods and utilities as a safe investment

    Buying stocks of some companies that produce cleanser or hygiene is an excellent choice. People will always need to be clean and they will buy these products no matter how deep the crisis is. Also, stocks of energy companies. They are not low-cost but they are eternal. Even more, these defensive basic-need stock can grow in a volatile market.

    What to do when the stock market is plunging?

    Many things in the markets depend on risk tolerance. Your investment portfolio is based on risk tolerance. The main problem with the stock market plunging and when it crashes is that they are coming suddenly, no one can be sure that the crash will come and when, or the market will recover. Market crashes happen quickly, there is no warning. The problem with investors’ risk tolerance is that is very hard to adjust it depending on circumstances, especially during the bear market. You’ll be emotional, panicked, you will be encompassed by fears. To avoid all of these, take care of your portfolio structure. You should hold liquid assets, such as cash, bonds. When the market crash occurs you need a through-out scenario to avoid losses. Liquide commodities will provide you that. 

    Being an investor means you have to put your feelings away. You have to make your decisions separate from them.
    Investing is magnificent. But life is also.

    During the bear markets, even trivial corrections can be remarkably dangerous.  But at the same time, bear markets will offer you great moments. The point is to know what you want and where are looking for. But Warren Buffett thinks about bear markets as buying opportunities. The trick is that in such market periods the stock prices of large companies are going down. When that moment occurs watch in your favorite stocks. The time will do the rest. You should buy it when others are selling.

     

  • Getting Started Investing is the Hardest Part

    Getting Started Investing is the Hardest Part

    Getting Started Investing is the Hardest Part
    Getting started investing can be very easy and smooth since you need a little money to start. Investing is better than savings accounts because it can shorten the period of earning.

    By Gorica Gligorijevic

    Getting started investing isn’t a big deal, it shouldn’t fright you. Honestly, it’s so easy.

    You know what, when I was just a little girl (my grandma used to sing this) my parents gave a lot of effort to teach me how to save money. Grandparents would like to give me money for some holidays with advice to keep it for rainy days. I had my savings account. From time to time, they would put some money there but most of the time they insisted I have to put. And I did it. Not frequently, I have to admit, but still. With time that habit got strong roots. Every month I’d put 10% of my earnings on my savings account. I am still doing the same. That first savings account is my 10%-account. 

    No matter how big or small portion is. 10% would every time end there. 

    I can only speak from personal experience but I am sure that other people could easily find themselves in the same situation. 

    I am not going to give you advice because I know that is almost impossible to put anything on your savings when you are living paycheck to paycheck. Yes, the amount of money that the majority have available to spend every month is insufficient to put something aside. Despite the old saying about money: If you save me today, I’ll save you tomorrow.

    But we all know how important is to have something aside. And it is possible. Let me show you how.

    How getting started investing

    Okay, do you know the rule “pay yourself first”? Yes, starting this is hard. But do you understand the meaning of this rule? Of course, you do but why not tell it again. This means you have to put on your savings every month some amount of money. It doesn’t matter how much it is. A few dollars, or other currency you have. Just when you get your salary, put aside several coins. Every month. And you will see, that amount will grow with time. Try this. I am not going to tell you how should you spend this money. You may have enough for exotic travel, or to buy a car, or after some time you may have enough for house buying deposit. Just start.

    No, I will never tell you to live below your means. 

    Sacrificing isn’t a good way to save anything except life. If you try this method, living below your means, you will be unhappy and you will always have the feeling that something was taken from you. It can be a trigger for something more serious. But, anyway, try not to purchase the famous brands, too expensive things. Do it occasionally if it makes you happy. But don’t let it be your goal. Life is a lot more than brands.

    Create a budget

    What you can do is to make a budget frame. It is a smart idea to write down the amount of money you have every month. You can do that in some excel spreadsheet, or just in some memo. Also, there is a lot of money management apps you can use. OK, that’s the first step. The next is to subtract all the costs you have, for example, taxes, debts, loans if you have (don’t worry, we all have), etc. What you have in your hands after these deductions is your net income. This is the amount you have to use as a base for creating your budget. So, track your spending to be able to make some adjustments if it is necessary and possible, of course. You should review your budget from time to time to be sure you are on a good track.

    Getting started investing 

    Do you know that your money can work for you? Yes. Let’s assume that after one year of saving you have enough for exotic travel. Why do you need to make it right now? Go somewhere else and save e.g. $1.000 on your trip. That amount is more than enough for getting started off investing. You can do that with less money, here you will find how. You can choose to invest in some mutual funds (it is probably the best for starting), or stocks, or real estate. By investing you will generate a greater return than your money sleeping in your savings account. If you invest in something you will let your money work for you. The whole process may be done with your banker’s help. Your bank has financial advisors, investment advisors, they will tell you where to invest. Or you can engage some brokers.  

    What are the advantages of investing

    One of the main advantages of investment is that you can have your money work for you to earn more. Let’s say this way. You don’t need to work more to earn more. Your investment will that for you. Investing could bring you a higher living standard, for example.

    Further, you can apply investment plans for saving and growing money. The best part of investing is that you can be a long-term investor and money earned from investments can be spent to cover future expenses, for example, for your retirement, or buying a house, new car, your children’s higher education costs, or just you want to have more.

    It is important for you to understand that investing isn’t gambling.

    You can make a profit on investment due to research and careful choice of a suitable investment vehicle. It isn’t betting. The truth is that you can make losses in the market. That’s the reason to make less risky investments. Never mind if they have lower returns. Stay on them until you find yourselves capable to play riskier. That time may never come. You can stay in safe investments for your whole life. It is OK. 

    In that way, you will protect your property in the long run. 

    So, you can see that getting started investing isn’t always the hardest part. It can be very easy and smooth. You just need a little money to start. At least if you have some targeted amount you have to save in some period, investing will short that period. You’ll be able to gain it sooner. Sounds good, don’t you think?

Traders-Paradise