Category: Financial News

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EUR/USD declined this week

1 min read

The US dollar was one of the strongest currencies during the trading week, mostly due to the optimism about Sino-US trade negotiations. EUR/USD declined even as the US consumer sentiment worsened significantly this month.
But previously, 3 days ago, EUR/USD declined dramatically.

EUR/USD declined as the US consumer sentiment worsened significantly this month. Yet the improving industrial production helped the dollar to gain on the euro. Another reason for the dollar’s strength was the rumor that the United States is considering lifting tariffs on Chinese imports.

Check the foreign exchange market. These are the data for some of the most interesting currency pairs:

AUD/USD

The Trend is bullish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday support is present at 0.7017 price level. So, as long as the price stays above 0.7017 support level, look for buy trades. If bearish candlestick closes below 0.7017 critical support level, then up trend is going to end.

EUR/JPY

The Trend is bullish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday support is present at 123.37 price level. So, as long as the price stays above 123.37 support level, look for buy trades. If bearish candlestick closes below 123.37 critical support level, then up trend is going to end.

EUR/USD

The Trend is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday resistance is present at 1.1484 price level. So, as long as the price stays below 1.1484 resistance level, look for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.1484 critical resistance level, then down trend is going to end.

GBP/USD

The Trend is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday resistance is present at 1.2965 price level. So, as long as the price stays below 1.2965 resistance level, look for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.2965 critical resistance level, then down trend is going to end.

USD/JPY

The Trend is bullish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday support is present at 107.77 price level. So, as long as the price stays above 107.77 support level, look for buy trades. If bearish candlestick closes below 107.77 critical support level, then up trend is going to end.
Images source: www.earnforex.com

22nd January 2019
Brexit deal, is it to be or not to be?

4 min read

Theresa May, the British PM, looks for a compromise with her political opponents that will deliver a Brexit deal. She is entering the most delicate and dangerous negotiations of the country’s split from the European Union.

On Wednesday night, there was an attempt in Parliament of opposition to oust her government in a vote of no-confidence 24 hours after her agreement with the EU was emphatically rejected by the historical margin for any sitting government of 230 votes.

But May survived and opened talks in an effort to break the deadlock. Now she must return to Parliament to set out her Plan B by Monday.

Point is that the UK has just 10 weeks left before the departure deadline.

According to Bloomberg, “May is prepared to blur her red lines to find a plan that will get through Parliament, according to a person familiar with the matter. That could mean keeping close ties to the EU, an outcome backed by opposition parties.”

On the other side, the European Union demand she radically rethinks the UK’s red lines. The bloc signaled its willingness to delay Britain’s withdrawal for a longer time.

That means, the EU had been preparing to make limited concessions over the much-loathed Irish border backstop to help May convince Parliament to back her deal.

But the after Tuesday night it is changed: European governments now believe a more fundamental shift is needed and the move has to come from the UK side, three diplomats said.

“The government approaches these meetings in a constructive spirit and I urge others to do the same,” May told the House of Commons after winning the confidence vote. “But we must find solutions that are non-negotiable and command sufficient support in this House.”

Economic consequences of Brexit deal

The pound initially rose after the historic vote on the Brexit deal. There were some expectations a cross-party approach would yield a Brexit plan that protects the trading connection with the bloc.

But the Theresa May discovered that the price of her opponents’ cooperation could be too high.

Rival party leaders promptly began to establish their conditions for taking part in talks to rescue May’s Brexit strategy. On the table is the option of delaying Brexit and even staging a second referendum on the membership of the EU.

The leader of the main opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn refused to take part at all in talks about the government’s new Brexit plan.

Corbyn, the Labour leader, said May must rule out a no-deal Brexit as a precondition for discussions. After a spokesman for the prime minister later told reporters she was not doing so, Corbyn’s camp said no deal was “blackmail.”

A “no-deal” Brexit is where the UK would cut all ties with the European Union overnight.

Labour party, Scottish National Party, and Liberal Democrat members of Parliament favor closer trading ties with the EU. More than May has proposed. Labour party, for example, is advocating full, permanent membership of a customs union with the bloc.
That sound as anathema to many pro-Brexit members of May’s Conservative party.

British authorities warn that leaving the EU without a deal could lead to a recession, with the pound falling as much as 25 percent and house prices taking as much as a 30 percent hit. Already, suppliers to manufacturers are stockpiling just in case.

Time is running short, and the prime minister has urgently scheduled calls with EU leaders to discuss the next steps.

It’s unclear how much the EU can help.

The bloc is willing to extend the Article 50 negotiating period beyond the summer. In order to find a deal if necessary, according to some diplomats. But on Wednesday, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier said there’s no way to remove the need for the most contentious part of the agreement, the so-called backstop plan for the Irish border.

According to some diplomats, European governments are willing to delay Britain’s departure well into the second half of the year.

So, there is a chance for Brexit to not happen on the long-ago scheduled date of March 29.

The economic exodus because of Brexit deal

The increasing likelihood of a no-deal split is pushing wealthy Europeans, who have made their homes in the UK, to move out. According to Anthony Ward Thomas, founder of a firm of the same name that specializes in overseas relocation.

He confirmed 296 moves away from Britain in 2018. That is an increase of 82 percent. Favored destinations are Paris, Brussels, Zurich, and Geneva, as well as southern France and Spanish locations such as Majorca. In other words the territories of EU countries.

Popular destinations also include the Channel Islands, which don’t apply capital gains or inheritance taxes. Relocation inquiries increased more than 50 percent in the second half last year compared to the first six months.

Customers are typically wealthy, having at least 5 million pounds ($6.4 million) at their disposal. They are European Union citizens moving with their families. There are some retirees seeking warmer weather but also favoring “more stable” political climate.

It pretty much looks that the people are abandoning the ship because it is sinking.

And the exodus may accelerate after the rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

You would like to read: What makes the Swedish economy unique and should the world follow its economic model?

Italy has also emerged as a magnet for moves, spurred by Brexit and the introduction of a new tax regime two years ago. This country was previously a focus mainly of the second-home owners. But these days, a new home buyer in Italy is, for example, entrepreneur or hedge-fund manager. They moved their families, bought homes, and started to work remotely.

Financial consequences

The pound drifted on Wednesday and gilts sold off even though the margin of the Prime Minister’s loss was way above the threshold many analysts feared would trigger panic. The prospect of a no-confidence vote in May later that evening has also failed to disrupt assets amid a general assumption she will prevail.

The one soft spot was the FTSE 100 Index of shares, which tends to fall when the currency performs well.

The key to the robust showing from UK assets appears to be in the scale of May’s defeat. A belief is growing among many financial professionals that there’s an increasing chance of a so-called soft-Brexit or even no Brexit at all. Those are outcomes many investors would cheer.

It looks that the chances of a no-deal Brexit are so slim now it’s not even really worth considering anymore. It looks that the resolution will be an even softer version than May’s proposal or a new referendum.

You would like to read Investment prediction for 2019 – Traders Paradise prediction

That’s a view shared by a host of analysts who expected May to survive the no-confidence vote called by the opposition.

The markets offer evidence of a pickup in confidence among traders. The cost of insuring UK banks’ subordinated debt fell, while volatility on pound options has slumped.

So, we can say that Prime Minister Theresa May’s record defeat in Parliament over her Brexit divorce deal caused a curious response from markets: Optimism.

The pound drifted on Wednesday and gilts, which is a traditionally safe investment, sold off even though the margin fell way below the threshold. And many analysts feared it would trigger panic. The prospect of a no-confidence vote in May later that evening has also failed to disrupt asset prices amid a general assumption she will prevail.

Not everyone sees the glass as half full

One undeniable outcome of the defeat of May’s deal is a further delay to the Brexit process and yet more uncertainty for traders. Dean Turner of UBS Global Wealth Management is among those recommending caution.

Fidelity International Leigh Himsworth is also wary. He’s reminding investors that a no-deal Brexit remains the default option. And that the mechanics of any other possibilities are difficult. He recommends investing in liquid assets and hedging against the various outcomes.

Brussels’ chief negotiator, Michel Barnier stated Brexit is at a standstill after the crushing rejection of Theresa May’s deal by MPs but offered to return to the negotiating table if parliament forces her to shift the “red lines”.

So, we will see. Monday is coming very soon.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

17th January 2019
Swedish Economy – HOW SWEDEN CREATED A MODEL ECONOMY

3 min read

photo source Jonathan-Brunkhorst unsplash
Nearly half of millennials say they prefer socialism to capitalism, but what do they mean?

“My policies most closely resemble what we see in the U.K., in Norway, in Finland, in Sweden,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told “60 Minutes.”

Yet Sweden’s experiment with socialist policies was disastrous, and its economic success in recent decades as a result of market-based reforms.

The Swedish economy continues to outperform other advanced economies.

Sweden is an amazing country. It is the country where Ikea, Skype, Spotify, Ericsson, Mojang (of the Minecraft fame) were founded and the country of the world’s oldest Central bank Sveriges Riksbank.

In the past, the Nordic nation has been criticized over state intervention. But now it tends to be presented as an example of how to optimize market capitalism.

What’s the secret?

Stability through reform

Sweden’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is among the highest in the EU. It has low inflation and a healthy banking system. But this has not always been the case. Historically, the Swedish economy suffered from low growth and high inflation, and the Swedish krona was repeatedly devalued.

Also, Sweden was hit by a violent financial crisis in the early 1990s. Banks became unstable. Two were nationalized, unemployment rose sharply, government spending soared, as did national debt.

photo source chuttersnap

The path back to stability and success was not easy for Sweden. But by pursuing inventive and courageous reforms, and sticking to them, Sweden has transformed its economy. They manage to pave the way for robust growth in the face of global economic uncertainty.

The balanced budget

According to the International Monetary Fund, Sweden’s national debt to GDP ratio fell from 80% in 1995 to 41% in 2017. All three leading credit agencies give Sweden an ‘AAA’ rating. That is a rare distinction, even among developed economies.

Since the crisis of the 1990s, successive Swedish governments have succeeded in maintaining control over public spending and continued to do so even in the wake of the 2007–2008 global financial crisis.

How was this achieved?

Sweden reinvented its economic governance with a series of innovative regulations. First, in 1996, a limit for public spending was introduced. This was followed by the addition of the ‘surplus goal’ for the government budget. These measures remain largely intact.

These reforms were met with broad support from across the political spectrum in Sweden, where political consensus is often the norm. These measures help prevent the accumulation of debt, and ensure that the national debt is kept in check.

The Swedish Fiscal Policy Council (Finanspolitiska rådet) was established in 2007. This committee of experts audits the government’s policy decisions regarding public finances. It aims to ensure that they remain consistent with the goals of growth, employment, and long-term financial sustainability.

The Swedish government’s credible management of public finances has meant that Sweden remains among the most fiscally responsible countries in Europe.

While governments with large budget deficits carry out austerity measures by increasing taxes and cutting public spending, Sweden has broadly avoided these difficulties. While Sweden remains a relatively highly taxed economy, the center-right coalition government of 2006–2014 scrapped inheritance tax in 2005 and a wealth tax in 2007.

The dynamic Swedish economy

Today, Sweden has a diverse and highly competitive and successful economy. The World Economic Forum ranks Sweden among the top ten most competitive countries in the world.

Sweden is also one of the easiest countries in the world to do business with, according to the World Bank.

A key feature of the Swedish economy is its openness and liberal approach to trade and doing business. Sweden has traditionally been an export-orientated nation, and typically maintains a trade surplus. The value of goods and services it exports is greater than the value of imports.

In addition to maintaining competitiveness in goods and manufacturing, growth in contemporary service sectors such as information and communications technology (ICT) has been strong in Sweden.

Sweden has produced a number of unicorns, including video game developers King and Mojang, fintech company Klarna, and music streaming service Spotify, and video call platform Skype.

Photo by John Arano on Unsplash

Sweden’s present economic and social prosperity was built on the lessons learned from the financial crisis in the early 1990s.

Governments pursued reforms and fiscal sustainability became institutionalized. Stable economic policies combine with competitiveness, innovation and an open approach to trade to make Sweden a model for economic success.

Cashless economy

Sweden is the most cashless society in the world with less than 1% of the value of all payments made using coins or notes in 2017.

Across the country, cash is now present in less than 20% of transactions in stores – half the number five years ago, according to the Riksbank.

Stockholm metro does not accept cash neither does most public transport. Most retailers only accept card payments and street vendors accept cards too. Even smaller payments are cashless with widespread card acceptance. iZettle – one of the most popular small retail payment processors is actually a homegrown company from Sweden.

Retailers are legally entitled to refuse coins and notes.

About 65% of Sweden’s 1500 odd bank branches no longer handle cash. Further many no longer even have ATMs.
Riksbank figures reveal that the average value of Swedish krona in circulation fell from around 106 billion in 2009 to 65 billion in 2016.

Let’s go back to the beginning of this article.

Ocasio-Cortez, like Senator Bernie Sanders before her, knows not to claim an actual socialist country as an exemplary.

During the primary season of the election of 2016, Sanders said, “I’m not looking at Venezuela. I’m not looking at Cuba. I’m looking at countries like Denmark and Sweden.”

Their opponents have the argument against. According to the latest edition of Economic Freedom in the World, Norway is the 25. a country in the world and Sweden 43. out of 162; while Singapore and Hong Kong first and second.

But, neither AOC or Sanders wanted to say that Nordic countries, even Sweden is the example of a free economy.

This was just a short picture of the Swedish economy.

The bottom line

Sweden and the Swedish economy is an example of how the government has to work for the benefits of citizens.

Sweden maybe is ranked lower than some other prosperous countries. But it isn’t the point. The point is: do citizens have opportunities, does government protects their rights and how they really treat them in regard to the living standards.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

15th January 2019
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – is she right?

2 min read

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who just took her House seat to represent the Bronx, has sparked headlines by suggesting tax rates as high as 70 percent to finance a “Green New Deal.”

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, said in an interview with Anderson Cooper on Sunday’s 60 Minutes, “There’s an element where, yeah, people are going to have to start paying their fair share in taxes,” she said. “Once you get to the tippy-tops, on your 10-millionth dollar, sometimes you see tax rates as high as 60% or 70%. That doesn’t mean all $10 million are taxed at an extremely high rate. But it means that as you climb up this ladder, you should be contributing more.”

On Friday morning, Politico reported that “exasperated” Democratic leaders on the Hill were striving to control Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Congresswoman and Bronx-native.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposed higher tax rate

She proposed a higher tax on the super-wealthy as part of a plan to finance the Green New Deal program.

AOC is proposing to lift the top marginal tax rate to 70 percent on incomes starting at $10 million. This idea has drawn both praise and mockery from the whole the political spectrum.

The opponents’ argument is that high taxes can make people work less. For example, if a well-to-do person takes home only $5,000 per hour instead of $7,000, he might cut back on the number of hours he works. But in real life, the effect is minimal.

Truth is that higher taxes are unlikely to reduce incentives, as the incentives to work are governed by the marginal utility of lost or gained income. Simply put when the wage of someone earning $22.000 per year can go up or down by $1.000 that person is well incentivized to make a decision about cutting back work hours. But when a person earning $10 mill a year, $1.000 of lost or gained income makes no change of the standard of living.

In support of this thesis, the Nobel Prize-winning Paul Krugman speaks.

Paul Krugman, in full Paul Robin Krugman, (born February 28, 1953, Albany, New York, U.S.), American economist and journalist who received the 2008 Nobel Prize for Economics for his work in economic geography and in identifying international trade patterns.

A few days ago he asked one simple question in his column for the New York Times:

“What does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez know about tax policy?’‘

And he gave the answer:

”A lot.”

Detractors try to discredit this young woman by publishing allegedly, compromising photos and videos. AOC was dancing in college. What?

That’s the right’s hysterics! Also, some of them try to show that her policy is insane.

Paul Krugman wrote:

”The controversy of the moment involves AOC’s advocacy of a tax rate of 70-80 percent on very high incomes, which is obviously crazy, right? I mean, who thinks that makes sense? Only ignorant people like … um, Peter Diamond, Nobel laureate in economics and arguably the world’s leading expert on public finance. (Although Republicans blocked him from an appointment to the Federal Reserve Board with claims that he was unqualified. Really.) And it’s a policy nobody has ever implemented, aside from … the United States, for 35 years after World War II — including the most successful period of economic growth in our history.”

And Krugman added:

“A policy that makes the rich a bit poorer will affect only a handful of people, and will barely affect their life satisfaction since they will still be able to buy whatever they want.”

and

“In other words, tax policy toward the rich should have nothing to do with the interests of the rich, per se, but should only be concerned with how incentive effects change the behavior of the rich, and how this affects the rest of the population.”

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez belongs to millennials generation

Almost half of the millennials say they prefer socialism to capitalism. What do they mean?

“My policies most closely resemble what we see in the UK, in Norway, in Finland, in Sweden,” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told “60 Minutes.”

On the other side, critics of high taxes claim the policy stifles economic growth by reducing the incentive for people to work. But Sweden’s employment rate is 77.5%, beating the U.S.’s 71%. In terms of economic growth this decade, expanding 2.7% a year in Nordic countries, on average, compared with 2.2% for the U.S.

For a real-world example, critics and fans alike should look to Sweden. This Nordic country has a marginal tax rate of 69.7% on salaries above $79,000. That’s almost 30 percents higher than in the U.S.

It is fantastic how many people don’t understand progressive taxation and marginal rates.

YOU WOULD LIKE TO READ THIS: Embarrassingly algorithms make fails more often than you expect.

Most interesting, it shows how few people understand that without progressive tax, you don’t get the infrastructure which allows people and businesses to prosper.

On the other side, some do.

Soak the rich. They should be happy we are not moving for a wealth tax.
Indeed. High marginal tax rates or guillotines. Seems like an easy choice for me.

So, we can say that Ocasio-Cortez’s tax plan isn’t radical at all.

And it certainly won’t damage the economy in any significant way. But will the plan to yield a bounty of tax revenue for a Green New Deal or other major spending programs?

This question is more about maximizing revenues than about the marginal rates.

Krugman pointed:

“Or to put it a bit more succinctly, when taxing the rich, all we should care about is how much revenue we raise. The optimal tax rate on people with very high incomes is the rate that raises the maximum possible revenue.”

Wealthy people have eye-popping incomes. But there really aren’t that many of them.

The amount of money the tax would raise would yield roughly $72 billion a year. That would increase federal personal income tax revenue by about 3.9%. It would certainly not be nearly enough to pay for Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal.

Chart: The Balance Source: The Office of Management and Budget

But the point is, why wealthy people don’t like to share or, more important, to invest in their country’s progress.

Survey shows

According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Aug. 15-21 among 1,893 adults, more Americans say tax rates on corporations and higher-income households should be raised rather than lowered.

The result is: 24% say taxes on incomes over $250,000 should be reduced; 43% say they should be raised, while 29% favor keeping them the same as they are currently.

According to the same survey, majorities of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents favor raising tax rates on both corporations (69%) and high incomes (57%), while Republicans are more divided.

YOU WOULD LIKE TO READ THIS: Traders Paradise wants to present you how rich is this world of scammers.

But while 70% of liberal Democrats say tax rates on household incomes over $250,000 should be raised, fewer than half of conservative and moderate Democrats (46%) say the same.

The bottom line

Historically, America used to have very high tax rates on the rich, even higher than AOC is proposing. The highest growth rate period was when the top marginal tax rate was 90%. That was the golden era of the post-WWII U.S. economy.

Let’s conclude this article with Krugman’s quote:

“Well, on the tax issue she’s just saying what good economists say; and she definitely knows more economics than almost everyone in the G.O.P. caucus, not least because she doesn’t ‘know’ things that aren’t true.”

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

13th January 2019
The algorithms make fails

Algorithmic errors that could cost us a lot. Embarrassingly algorithms make fails more often than you expect.

3 min read

Yes, algorithms make fails. Technology is not just for geeks, but for all of us. That’s a lot of people. Only a few companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have control over our wallet.

Do they make decisions by themselves or it is an algorithm involved in the whole process that helps them to make important decisions?

Big companies increasingly rely on algorithms. It doesn’t always work out.

Vignettes that tell tales of companies pushing their technologies forward, ignoring conventional wisdom and social norms fill modern history.

YOU WOULD LIKE TO READ: Artificial intelligence and machine learning we can apply to the financial markets

But what happens in today’s modern machine learning, AI-driven world when the algorithms fail?

What happens when the machine isn’t offering advice, but provide a decision? And do it wrong. What to do when the machines are wrong? Who’s liable? Does liability now move from the user to the provider of solutions?

Social media relies on algorithms to match their users with content that might interest them.

But what happens when that process goes messy? When algorithms make fails?

Over the past several years, there have been some serious fails with algorithms. Algos are the formulas or sets of rules used in digital decision-making processes. Now, the question is, do we put too much trust in the digital systems.

There’s one clear standout: the algorithms making the automated decisions that shape our online experiences require more human oversight.

A perfect example is the Facebook News Feed. No one knows how it works that some of your posts show up on some people’s News Feeds or not, but Facebook does.

The first case in a string of incidents involved Facebook’s advertising back end. After it was revealed that people who bought ads on the social network were able to target them at self-described anti-Semites.

Disturbingly, the social media’s ad-targeting tool allowed companies to show ads specifically to people whose Facebook profiles used words like “Jew hater” or “How to burn Jews.”

The website paid $30 for an ad that targets an audience that would respond positively to things like “why Jews ruin the world” and “Hitler did nothing wrong.”

It was approved within 15 minutes.

But Facebook’s racist ad-targeting didn’t cause enough for concern.

Instagram was caught using a post that included a rape threat to promote itself.

After a female Guardian reporter received a threatening email, “I will rape you before I kill you, you filthy whore!” she took a screen grab of the message and posted it to her Instagram account. The image-sharing platform then turned the screenshot into an advertisement, targeted to her friends and family members.

Scary and unethical. But it’s an algorithm that makes fails.

Try to tell that to the people that were targeted.

And, how about Amazon showing you related books? Related searches on Google? All of these are closely guarded secrets that do a lot of work for the company and can have a big impact on your life.

It’s logical to ask ourselves, what are the ethics of liability, and who will be responsible if and when algorithms take over?

Human beings have an explanation, no matter how imperfectly, why they took the actions that they did. Simple rule-based computer programs leave a trail. But the cognitive systems cannot explain or justify their decisions.

YOU WOULD LIKE TO READ: Artificial intelligence and machine learning we can apply to the financial markets

For example, why did the autonomous vehicle behave the way it did when its brakes failed?

Who is responsible when it is hacked?

Will data companies need insurance coverage for forwarding forecasts or will the usual legalese in marketing and delivery footnotes suffice?

Will they need to advise customers that they should not rely, for business purposes, on the expensive systems they have just purchased?

There are so many questions, but we want to point some algo fails from the recent past.

Algorithms aren’t perfect.

Algo fails and some fail spectacularly. Speaking about social media, a small glitch can turn into a PR nightmare real quick. It’s rarely malicious. This is something that the New York Times calls “Frankenstein Moments.” The situation where the creature someone created turns into a monster.

There are so many examples of how the algorithms make fails.

Everyone who has the profile on Facebook, with no doubt can see its end-of-year, algorithm-generated videos with highlights from the last 12 months.

This example happened in 2014. One father saw a picture of his late daughter. Another man saw snapshots of his home in flames. Other examples show people seeing their late pets, urns full of a parent’s ashes, and deceased friends. By 2015, Facebook promised to filter out sad memories.

The truth is that most of the algorithms fail are far from fatal.

But the world of self-driving cars brings in a whole new level of danger. That’s already happened at least once. A Tesla owner on a Florida highway used the semi-autonomous mode (Autopilot) and crashed into a tractor-trailer that cut him off.

Yes, Tesla quickly issued upgrades. But we have to ask, was it really the Autopilot mode fault? The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says maybe not since the system requires the driver to stay alert for problems. Now, Tesla prevents Autopilot from even being engaged if the driver doesn’t respond to visual cues first.

One of the examples is the case from Twitter.

There is another example of algorithms make fails. A couple of years ago, chatbots were supposed to replace customer service reps. The aim was to make the online world a chatty place to get info.

Microsoft responded in March 2016 by promoting an AI named Tay. It should provide that people, specifically 18- to 24-year-olds, may interact with on Twitter. Tay, in turn, would make public tweets for the masses.

But in less than 24 hours, Tay became a full-blown racist. She learned from the foul-mouthed masses, obviously.

Microsoft pulled Tay down instantly. She returned as a new AI named Zo in December 2016. But now with “strong checks and balances in place to protect her from exploitation.”

The social media companies are not the only ones afflicted by these algorithms fails. It seems that Amazon’s recommendation engine may have been helping people buy bomb-making ingredients together.

The online retailer’s “frequently bought together” feature might suggest you purchase sugar after you’ve put an order of powder. But, when users buy household items used in homemade bomb building, the site suggested they might be interested in buying other bomb ingredients.

What do these mishaps have to do with algorithms?

The common element in all the algorithms fails is that the decision-making was done by machines. It highlights the problems that can arise when major tech firms rely so heavily on automated systems.

There are legal issues here. And there are ethic issues. There might be basic training in “use the algorithm as input” but the final decision is a human one. And one day, some human is going to make the wrong “human decision.” When an algorithm says “no” and a person cancel it, we all know that the shit is going to hit the fan.

The tide is changing in this area. It comes with increased demands for algorithmic transparency and bigger human involvement. It is necessary to avoid the problematic outcomes we’ve seen in recent years.

But real change is going to require a philosophical shift.

The bottom line

The companies have a focus on growth and scaling. And to fit the massive sizes, they have turned to algorithms. But, algorithms make fails, as we can see.

But algorithms do not exist in isolation. As long as we rely solely on algorithmic oversight of things like ad targeting, ad placement and suggested purchases, we’ll see more of these disturbing scenarios. While algorithms might be good at managing decision-making on a massive scale, they lack the human understanding of context and gradation. And ethic too.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

11th January 2019
A chaotic December in equity markets

2 min read

Image from shutterstock.com

What caused a chaotic December? A chaotic December in equity markets is closing. But, at the end of the year, these were not usual circumstances.

It’s “completely bizarre,” says Stephen Innes, head of trading for the Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “It’s incredible just how harmful markets veer when sentiment slides.”

Innes mostly is keeping his money on the sidelines. But he has been taking profit on some winning investments. And, also, from blue-chip stocks whose valuations have dropped in the December sell-off.

Like many other traders in Asia, he’s been watching events play out in the U.S. from a distance, astonished at what he sees.
So, what he did see?

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 Index posted its biggest upward reversal since 2010 on Thursday. Just a day after the largest advance since 2009. Despite this two-day gain, the measure is still down almost 10 percent in December alone.

That’s the largest drop for each key market barometer since 1931, according to data from LPL Research. But those Depression-era losses were much bigger: the S&P 500 plunged 14.5% while the Dow plunged 17%.

Two golden rules have been broken.

First, since 1945, December has produced the highest average gains of any month. But December is the worst month of the year. Second, since the 1970s, the S&P 500 has never slumped when earnings growth was more than 10 percent.

Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Singapore, is planning to ride it out. “I remain invested through good times and bad,” he says. “Not being invested, over the long term, is like betting against the house in a casino.” He is a long-only investor.

The December 2018 chaos is making investors nervous.

This chaotic December in 2018 could have an impact in the future. The investors are worried that the economy could slow in 2019 because of continued trade tensions with China and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The Dow and S&P 500 are both in the red for the year, their worst annual loss since the 2008 Great Recession, and first annual loss since 2015. Last year, the S&P 500 returned 22%.

For the past, eight to nine years never happened the U.S. market dropping at this magnitude and speed.

Maybe the solution is to go overweight cash for the time being. The volatility will continue until year-end until investors get a clearer picture from the holiday earnings season, say experts.

But longer-term, it is unknown if this will prove a “healthy correction”. The investors may find the S&P 500’s low valuations are attractive and earnings come in above expectations. Or it will mark the end of the bull run. Either way, one thing’s for certain, this movement is definitely unusual.

This market turbulence isn’t normal.

Maybe investors should keep away from new trades and tend to the existing investments. Anyway, investors opinion is very bad.

Yes, most of them don’t think that this huge volatility will continue. But also, they are thinking that it is not a quite good idea to trade stock while the market is like this.

The investors can’t hope that the markets will turn around in the year’s final days. They are here and it is obvious that nothing will change.

In the past years, December was usually a very solid month for the market. Professional money managers used to buy top-performing stocks. That made their portfolios look good. This phenomenon is known as window dressing.

There was also the somewhat mysterious Santa Claus rally effect. The market was very well in the final week of the years.
There was some chalk up to light trading volume with so many people off for the Christmas holiday.

But volatility remained this year. Stocks are down.

It is, as we can see, unusual for this time of year. But the people take holidays. They have hope that the U.S. economy is robust and the sell-off will bottom out.

For this time of year, some people are probably a little more focused on the market.

But trying to explain short-term movements in the markets is an exercise in futility because generally, it is pretty random.

Not only stocks, but Bitcoin has also had a brutal 2018.

This chaotic December in 2018 had an impact on cryptos too.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is nearly 84% since its meteoric rise topped out at an all-time high of $19,870 in December 2017.

But just after bitcoin (BTC-USD) peaked, technical trader Peter Brandt made a fantastically prescient call. This has recently resurfaced in crypto circles. In January, he called for an 80% retrace of bitcoin’s parabolic advance, predicting a $3,933 price target. Bitcoin is currently trading around $3,600. It was very close.

But as ever, there were different opinions.

The dominant Bitcoin price prediction was that Bitcoin would reach the $14,000 mark by the end of 2018.

However, that prediction is blown out.

Despite some optimists who were hoping that Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 barrier till the end of this year. In fact, Jim Cramer was predicting that Bitcoin will go as far as shattering the million dollar threshold one day.

To do so, market capitalization should surpass 1 trillion USD just on BTC to reach $66,000 per coin, a 10x increase. Well, the entire market cap is at $212 billion. The BTC market cap was $170 billion almost a year ago. Now it is $115 billion and it was at $800 billion in January 2018.

So, who knows what can happen.

Today’s price of BTC you can see here

One thing is certain. After this chaotic December in 2018, next year will be difficult and uncertain. Markets will be full of volatility. Permanent ups and downs.

Anyway, it will be interesting.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

2nd January 2019
Grid Computing | The Powers of Distributed Cloud Computing
Grid computing, a descendant of the cloud and big brother to distributed computing.

Think of grid computing as the intersection of two core systems of organization: cloud computing and public utilities like electricity. At this intersection, grid computing is enabling you to tap into computational resources, centralized and not. Just like you would tap into the nearby energy lines for some of those glorious electrons that we rely on.

A modern power grid will have many sources of input. Power plants, for example, contribute a lot to the power grid but burgeoning technologies, such as solar panels and windmills, are democratizing power production.

Independent and artisanal power producers can contribute to the power grid and receive compensation. In some cases, this is excess energy.

Farmers, for example, may have solar panels to generate cheaper electricity locally. However, the farmer cannot store any unused electrons for future use, so they may choose to route that surplus energy back to the energy grid, where others can use it. One person’s wasted electrons are another’s fully charged Tesla.

Grid computing is much like the electricity grid. Contributors, big and small, can add to the grid. Users can tap into the computational grid and access services independent of the contributor.

The Cloud, Grid, and Distributed Computing

To better understand what grid computing is and its nuanced differences from distributed computing, it will be easier to first understand the barrier and limitations that grid computing is able to overcome. In other words, seeing the problems grid computing can solve will help us better understand what grid computing is.

The Limits of Cloud Computing Is Where the Grid Shines

Grid computing is a subset or extension of cloud computing. In a nutshell, cloud computing is the outsourcing of computational functions. A common cloud service, like cloud data storage from Google Drive or Dropbox, lets a customer store their data with those companies.

Someone looking to use cloud data storage chooses between providers like Google Drive, Dropbox and iCloud. The company they go with would then be their provider of cloud storage. Customer support, troubleshooting, billing, networking infrastructure, and all aspects to providing the cloud service to the customer would then come directly and solely from the company they choose.

Pretty straightforward, right? One customer, one provider. However, we are looking for the limitations of cloud computing. Where do the perks of cloud computing fall short and leave room for other organizational structures like grid computing?

Common Criticisms of Cloud Computing:
1. User resources are committed to a single symmetric multiprocessing (SMP) system.
2. Unused computing resources sit idle and are locked into a single task until it is complete.
3. Relatively limited scalability.
Evolving Cloud Limitations with Grid Computing

Keeping in mind the parallels that grid computing has with a public utility grid, this type of computational organization can alleviate some of the common criticisms limiting cloud computing.

Let’s look over each of these claims and examine how a grid system could be more beneficial for a user over a traditional cloud service.

Cloud Limitation #1: User resources are committed to a single symmetric multiprocessing (SMP) system.

I’ll use a really basic example to showcase this pain point. There is a neural scientist looking to crunch two data sets (Set A and Set B). These data sets are huge and she’ll need to outsource the task to a cloud service.

The cloud service will have no problem running these data sets and she happily rents one machine from them to process her datasets. Remember that her datasets are exclusive to each other and need to be processed separately.

This means that the single SMP machine she leased will run Set A followed by Set B. Her single machine is unable to process both data sets simultaneously.

No big deal though, the cloud machines she leased are heavy duty and tear through the massive data sets in less than a few hours each. Processing the data will take less time than a full nights sleep for the scientist.

Now, what happens if she needs to do the same processing but for 100 data sets. Her budget still only gives her enough funding to access one cloud SMP machine. Being a person of science, she quickly does the math and discovers that it will take nearly two weeks to process all that data!

This article was originally posted on https://coincentral.com/grid-computing-the-powers-of-distributed-cloud-computing/
27th December 2018
Bitcoin Bear Market Is Far From Over

2 min read

Bitcoin and the Bear market? Why the bear markets are the best time to be in crypto?

Recently, Bitcoin made a strong rally. Enough to break past the neckline of its double bottom at $3,600 to $3,700. This can be an uptrend underway. If buyers keep the price above the area of interest, it will be possible.

If you apply the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 38.2% to 50% levels span the former resistance. That might now hold as support. That means bitcoin could recover to around $4,035 and beyond.

Analysis indicates that the current Bitcoin price chart entirely mirrors that seen in late-2014 and early-2015, this market’s last moody bear market.

What happened then?

2013 marked a very significant year not only in the history of Bitcoin’s bear market but in the history of Bitcoin as a whole. In October 2013, FBI officially shut down the Silk Road.

Silk Road was an online black market. It also represented the first modern darknet market. However, Silk Road’s represented the crypto asset’s first form of widespread user adoption.

The Silk Road closed activity in October of that year. But the price of Bitcoin continued to rally until the end of November before the market had fully systemized the effects of that event.

It is impossible to know when Bitcoin has reached its peak while events are ongoing. Even more, the media didn’t help paint a clear picture of reality. At the time, even as the price of Bitcoin began dropping, headlines were incredibly optimistic.

But, during Bitcoin’s reversal period in January 2015, the general sense in media’s headlines was negative.

These headlines did not provide any positive signals to indicate the bottom of Bitcoin bear market, at that time.

Let’s go back to 2018! What is happening now with Bitcoin?

Although many have claimed that Bitcoin, has finally touched the bottom in 2018’s market downturn, data indicates that many investors still see plentiful amounts of value in blockchain-based assets.

The research group divulged that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin flow into investors’ wallets has been on the rise, eclipsing the $400 million milestones as of November 1st. Well, $400 million out of Bitcoin’s current $65 billion market capitalization isn’t especially important. In June, this same figure was $300 million. In that period, the price of Bitcoin was approx $6,000. Those days it is about $3,750. November’s inflows should be seen as a bullish indicator.

The data suggests that investors have sought to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices. Many investors started to allocate more capital towards Bitcoin, due to their long-term belief in the asset’s underlying value.

That wasn’t the case only with “personal wallets”. The institutional players via Grayscale Investments saw an increase in Bitcoin balances. It is an investment-centric subsidiary of the conglomerate that is Digital Currency Group (DCG).

Since the start of 2018, Grayscale has seen its Bitcoin coffers swell by 30,600 BTC to 203,000 total.

Now it accounting for more than 1% of the asset’s total circulating supply.

As seen in the chart above (sourced from LongHash), the wallets pertaining to Grayscale’s GBTC, a vehicle that allows retail and investors to purchase customized BTC on the U.S. OTC market, has seen month-over-month increases.

Markets move solely based on the demand from investors. Hence, if investors think a large rally cannot be maintained throughout the years to come, then some of the largest markets can experience steep sell-offs.

Bitcoin made the recovery and market watchers are pinning it on a number of factors. First is the Coinbase offering of crypto to crypto trading that could boost volumes in the retail sector. Next is the report that Mark Dow, the former IMF economist that opened a major short play on bitcoin after it hit its all-time highs, closed his remaining position also led many to think that he may already be seeing a market bottom.

Bitcoin could take a longer time to recover than in previous years.

Because the market is more structured.

But, it is wrong to claim that Bitcoin could drop to zero because of its 85 percent decline in price this year. This because, in the previous year, it demonstrated a 1,850 percent gain. And a major correction was expected after such a large movement.
But many aren’t convinced that lines can be accurately drawn. The Bitcoin industry has matured beyond measure in the past year alone, and even more so in the past four. Moreover, others have claimed that the worst has yet to come for crypto assets.
Vinny Lingham, CEO of blockchain-centric identity ecosystem Civic, explained that trading within the aforementioned $2,000-wide range is likely to continue for a minimum of three to six months, a common timeline in the eyes of Bitcoin’s short-term bears. The entrepreneur added that if a convincing breakout isn’t established by the end of Bitcoin’s six-month range, a strong foray under $3,000 wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.

The Civic chief noted that Bitcoin will likely remain range-bound between $3,000 and $5,000 “for a while.”

But Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said: ”Bear markets are a ‘Golden Time’ to be in crypto.”

Bitcoin bear market is far from over, this is the opinion of analytics.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

20th December 2018
Growth fears pushed Russell 2000 into Bear area

1 min read

Russell 2000 – That is going to say, we’re about the way to a bear market.

Russell 2000 is pushed into the Bear territory by growth fears!

Looks like the Bear Market is already here.

What happened?

Small American stocks have tumbled into a big hole, reflecting mounting slowdown fears on Wall Street, reported CNN.

The Russell 2000 fell into the hole, in the middle of a wave of selling. The major market indexes are in red.

The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are all well into correction territory. They are down more than ten percent from their previous highs.

Russell 2000 – Market indexes are red!

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks dived into a bear market on Monday. It happened after a 20% decline since hitting a record high in late August.

That marks the first bear market for the index since the downturn that spanned June 2015 to February 2016, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

The media’s conclude that investors are scared by the Federal Reserve rate hike.

“Investors are showing real caution about the pace of economic growth for the US next year,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Confidence is falling,” added he for CNN.

The index contains 2,000 smaller companies that do little business overseas. As such making them highly exposed to swings in the domestic economy.

The index is viewed as a barometer for confidence in American growth.

Small-cap stocks sometimes lead the broader market. That’s the reason for making a Russell 2000 bear market a potentially ominous event.

It’s the fear of a recession and that is very real.

How the Fed made this situation as real?

The Fed’s job is monetary policy. They have to keep unemployment low and inflation under control.

Trade war worries

About 40% of the debt held by Russell 2000 companies is floating-rate, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. The cost to service that debt has climbed in tandem with the Fed’s two-year of raising interest rates.

“That’s potential stress if growth is slowing in the United States, which the markets are betting on,” said Boockvar.

Moreover, about one-third of Russell 2000 companies are unprofitable.

That number could rise if the US economy gets stuck.

It looks that the odds of a US recession over the next 12 months have climbed to about 30%. That would be the highest level during the nine-year economic expansion.

The Russell 2000 climbed 13% last year. The investors bet that US-focused companies would avoid getting caught in the middle of trade wars. Multinational companies like Nike (NKE), Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA) dominate the S&P 500 and Dow.

This was a safe haven. But it ended up being a very crowded trade. And everyone knows what happens to a crowded trade when the tide goes out.

The idea that smaller companies would avoid the fallout of the crackdown on trade was flawed. Now it is obvious.

The reason is that Small-cap stocks do business with big-cap stocks.

Markets were in the midst of the longest bull market in American history. This began in March 2009. But the bull has been stumbling pretty badly of late, leading some analysts to investors to wonder whether this is the start of a bear market.
It is commonly measured by a 20% fall from a previous peak.

After a brutal decline in US stocks in October, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped into the red for the year. That caused erasing all the gains made in 2018.

The benchmark S&P 500 has fallen more than 9% from it’s the all-time peak at the same time. So, stocks continue to slide.
That is going to say, we’re about the way to a bear market.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

18th December 2018
Bitcoin Profit – Profit Even When MARKETS CRASH
3 min read
- Bitcoin Profit provides learning materials not only presented in the written form.
ABOUT

Bitcoin Profit was designed by skillful software developers. Its programming algorithm is founded on the basis of complex analytical methods. Let’say, these people have nothing to hide from the public. This is obvious from their policy of complete clarity in every possible procedure. Not only this. They teach users how to maximize their daily earnings while staying safe from the risks.

Who founded Bitcoin Profit

Bitcoin Profit is the creation of John Myers. It was developed after years of hard work and research. Myers hired the team for the development of the software. And it is highly skilled and professional. Further, they gave priority to security and safety. This is the reason they have implemented encryption strategy on their website. And yes, they are using the latest SSL protocol.

The brokers associated with this trading system are reliable, legit and have proper licenses to provide legal investment advice.

They all have reputable in the industry. And, which is very important, they want to help their clients prosper.

Their CEOs are educated traders who have many years of experience behind their backs. All of them have graduated from some of the most prestigious business schools in the world.

They have studied cryptos since back in the day when Bitcoin was first launched. The team has a lot of experience in currency trading, stocks and bonds, trading, and high-frequency trading as well. These guys certainly know what they are doing and they do it very well too.

Trading Platform

This trading system is smart and logical. It will alert you as soon as trading opportunities are available in the market. With its assistance, you will be able to make smart decisions about when to trade and when to stop. There are many qualities and features that make it extremely useful for traders. The software has been designed to be easy to use and it utilizes pre-set parameters to guide you as you trade.

Bitcoin Profit also provides to analyze the digital currency markets, study price charts, monitor market activities and identify trends. So, that can help you spot profitable trading opportunities especially if you are new in this world. The great preference of this software is that it will send out alerts as to when you should open or close a position.

This software will help you improve your gains and at the same time reduce the level of risks you encounter as a trader.

Importance for beginners

For novices, it can be quite exhausting to learn the basics of trading. As it is known, the time limit is one of the biggest barriers that prevent them from achieving the success they desire. But, when you use BTC Profit, it takes care of most of the hard work for its users. It provides assistance and support which makes the whole process simple and fast. Thus, it gives traders more time for their own research and analysis.

If you want to trade with Bitcoin Profit, you don’t have to undertake education or training in this area. Even if you are a complete beginner, for instance. You will found massive success with this tool because of its autopilot nature. And the software also enables manual trading, but it is more suitable for experienced traders.

Demo account

Yes, they have a demo account and it is completely free. It is very important for beginners. To test skills and learn.

How to start with BitCoin Profit?

1: Click the link to get to the official website of BTC Profit.

2: Fill in the form to get a FREE license for trading.

3: Follow the instructions on the platform to start profiting

To take advantage of this impressive algorithm that this crypto website has, you can do so by entering a couple of basic details into a registration form. After a couple of minutes, they will send an email confirmation and it will feature an applied link.

This will lead the client to a legit, regulated, and trustworthy partnering crypto trading platform where an individual trading account can be opened.

How to use this software

To use the software, you have to join the program and customize the settings. Note that you will need investment funds in your account to be able to trade bitcoins.

The program has a very simple user interface. Beginners will be able to benefit from the easy to use settings and features of the software to attain the best possible trading results.

Customer support

Personal Account Manager will assist customers. You can get in touch with them via telephone or email. This cryptocurrency exchange app has a number of certificates issued in its name for the high service quality. As a result, it operates only with licensed partners.

The process of joining the system is hassle-free. In case you might have questions or problems, you can always turn to the customer support service. That is available 24/7. You can be sure they will answer all of your questions in a swift manner and with professionalism.

The customer team

The customer care team at BTC Profit are professional, knowledgeable of the tool and most importantly they are friendly. Moreover, they give online service to customers. And you can trust them. Always they want to provide accurate information and on-time resolution of trading related issues.

With their problem-solving attitude and an approach that is fantastic, they keep their clients satisfied and happy.

Cost and expected returns

The minimum for the first deposit is $250. The cost of using the software is free. As long as you have investment capital in your account, you will be able to use the Bitcoin Profit without any cost. Well, returns may vary significantly depending on the settings you have chosen and the amount you invest on your trades.

Security

Another great bonus is the fact that it applies the most recent 256-bit encryption protocols. BitCoin Profit’s storage of personal and financial data is done on separate servers. Users must make a minimum initial deposit of $250 in order to fund their account but this is not a payment. It is simply a method of getting started. But the sum can be sent back to the trader at any time.

This team has made an effort with establishing this software is safety. The point is, the platform has been encrypted to provide the highest possible security level for your funds and personal information. In a volatile and fast-paced industry like cryptocurrency trading online, security is important. So, you can trade with a calm mind.

One advantage more

Bitcoin Profit provides learning materials. The most interesting segment here is that some of the learning materials are not presented in the written form. They are made available as interactive vlog content. And some are animated. So, we can confirm that they have very interesting materials. You can find frequent guest lectures from expert financiers. They utilize language which is simple. Even though the topics it covers can be very complex. But, the main point is, it can be understood by anyone.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Profit is not scam software. It has been proven to work and to generate substantial results for its clients. John Mayers and his team have developed an accurate and user-friendly investment platform.

Bitcoin Profit is a genuine and fully reliable cryptocurrency exchange app.

It started off as a small online investment project, launched by young professional. And now is full-time trading software. So, users can proceed to safely get started with it. As it complies with all SSL requirements.

It earns the approval of users and good ratings in cryptocurrency exchange reviews. At most, thanks to its outstanding performance. The majority of traders who are their customers have achieved excellent results, as we know.

Just grab one of the free spots that have been made available and begin your path in the cryptocurrency trading industry.

With a viable trading solution like Bitcoin Profit, it doesn’t matter in which direction the markets are moving. The software will always aim to help its users generate returns regardless of the conditions.

You can sign up now for free before you decide to spend money.

Also, you can also find more companies we recommend in our wall of fame, and be aware of the ones inside our wall of shame.

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

Screenshots from website thebtcprofit.com/
1st December 2018