Tag: stock market

All stock market related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

How to Defeat the Bear Market?

If you want to know how to defeat the bear market read this post to the end.

By Guy Avtalyon

Who wants to know how to defeat the bear market? Are you scared about the bear market? Yes, you should be scared. A bear market is one of the cruelest events that can happen to investors.
Let’s make clear what the bear market is. A bear market is when the price of stocks falls at least 20% or more from its 52-week high.
It is essential to understand the order of stock market returns, actually the range of return. Investors who do not understand the order may experience lingering effects that will reduce their profits for a lot.

Where the bear market may occur?

In short everywhere. Stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, oil. Literally everywhere where the trade occurs. Of course, when the prices of computers drop we can’t speak about the bear market. We will rather speak about deflation in such a case.

The bear market is brutal and dangerous. It can blot out everything you made in the bull market. The main goal for every investor during the bear market is to keep as much as it is possible the earning and investment.

I hope you know how to survive a bear attack. Do you really know? Did anyone tell this before to you? Well, the best way to survive a bear attack is to pretend you are dead. Just lay down, don’t breathe, don’t move, keep your eyes open to know what is the next bear’s move, but don’t move them. Clear?

Do it all but without panic.

The same comes when the stock market is down during the bear period. Stay calm and don’t panic.

How not to panic when the stock prices are going down?

Just keep in mind that it is the period. Yes, it is a period when the prices are dropping. A slump in investor confidence will indicate the attack of a bear market. You will see them running away as if chased by a pride of hungry lions. They are selling stocks with the speed of light. Oh, how wrong they are! Where they are going when the bear market is full of investing opportunities.

People, there is no need to get panicked.

That’s the natural condition of the market. To paraphrase a famous investor Peter Lynch, if you don’t understand that recessions can occur or the stock market may drop, you are not ready to enter the market, or at least, you will not do well there.

But we’re all on the same ship. There is no reason to panic. You have to know one thing. The market isn’t the Titanic. It will not crash so easily. This boat will correct itself. It will not happen overnight. So you have to be patient and stay calm. Remember how to survive a bear attack? That is exactly how to defeat the bear market.

During the bear market, most stocks will fall. How to stay in stocks in such circumstances? Just count!

Will it be better to have money in a savings account with a zero interest rate? Nope! Even when the price decline, your stocks will give you a better return.

The secret strategy on how to defeat the bear market is to buy and hold. Investing shouldn’t be the last trump card in your hand. You must have more options in your overall financial situation. You can’t defeat the bunch of enemies with one shot.

Except, of course, if you’re Luke Skywalker on the bombing run against the air vent of the Death Star.

How to defeat the bear market?

Buy now! Notice, be greedy when others are afraid. You should buy the stock when everyone else is selling. Evaluate the companies, their historical data, don’t read the news for a while (trust me, I know how journalists can produce breaking news, and highlight the headlines). Just be calm and let it appear. Let the right decision to come to you. The doors will be opened. Enter! Take your position! Ignore the jerks! Don’t listen to them, find your sweet spot. And don’t panic, again!

In the worst-case scenario, which is the most extreme, you can sell all your stocks and put cash to the bank account (to be honest, I don’t think it is smart, but still) or reinvest the money in more stable assets such as short-term bonds. But you have to know, if you sell all your stocks it is capitulation. It is the official term not my opinion about your investing. But if you do so, how will you come back, how will you rebound? You will be lost out. And it will be very hard for you to enter the stock market again.

The best way is to take a defensive strategy. This means to buy the stocks of big, stable companies. They are strong enough to defend your portfolio from the bear market. Their share prices are less sensitive to a bigger decline. For example, food businesses.

A bear market is a feeling about a particular market mood.

The bear market received its name for the behavior by which bears attack their victims. So, just pretend you are dead when the bear market occurs.

8th October 2019
Millennials’ Fears to Invest in the Stock Market

One of four millennials doesn’t think investing is a good idea.
Holding on to cash is financial hara-kiri.
The stock market isn’t out-of-reach and with a little amount, you can start investing.

By G. Gligorijevic

Millennials’ fears to invest in the stock market are shown in statistical data. Millennials are skeptical of the stock market at a great percentage. Yes, people! I can understand that. It isn’t easy to understand the stock market and when you don’t understand something, you are getting afraid. Moreover, you have heard a lot of scary stories. But take a look at your peers. Almost 1/4 think that a stock market is a great place to put their money. Are they braver than you?

Investing in the stock market has nothing to do with bravery it is all about common sense.

I know what you want to say: There are a lot of other ways of saving. Yes, that’s true. But is the return so great as with stock investing? Take a look at baby boomers! They stole cryptocurrencies from you, for example, not to mention other assets. Digital money should be yours. While you are hesitating to invest in the stock market, baby boomers and Gen X have an advantage.

Some of you may say: Yes, but they don’t have loans, they have homes, etc.

Sorry guys, but I have to disappoint you. They also have debts, mortgages, loans but don’t think the best way to earn more is to put cash in the savings account.

I’ll show you how wrong you are if you prefer to keep your cash in the savings account and how much you can lose over the years. Actually, I would like to show you how much you can earn if you invest in the stock market. So let’s make some comparisons.

Which are Millennials’ fears to invest?

Do you really think you need a million dollars to retire? You’re going to be very discouraged. That amount isn’t even close to cover the cost of your bag of groceries. Inflation is what will make it tricky.

To put it simpler, your parents needed much less money to cover the cost of their bag of groceries when you were born. The costs increased by about 300% over the past 30 years. Scary! But you can’t destroy the inflation. Inflation is good for some things but it is another subject. Let’s stay stick with this one. Having this on your mind, are you still convinced that one million dollars is enough for your retirement? I am not sure. It is more like you will need more. By keeping your extra money on your savings account you will never earn enough to beat inflation.

Holding on to cash is financial hara-kiri.

If you don’t mind, I want to show you something.

Over the last 90 years, the returns of the S&P 500 was 10%. This is one example but the same is with other stock markets. How much your savings accounts pay you? Let’s say it is a high-saving one so you may have 1,5% per year.

Assume you have $50.000. If you put that amount on the savings account after 30 years you will have, without correcting for inflation, almost $80.000. This means your savings account could generate only $1.000 per year. But what would be your income if you invest your $50.000 in the stock market? After 30 years of investing in a nice portfolio, you could have almost one million dollars.

Can you notice the difference? Millennials’ fears to invest come from lack of knowledge about finances.

Why Millennials are afraid to put their money in the stock market?

Investing has never been easier, but millennials are still afraid to start investing.
You don’t need the fortune to get involved in the stock market. You are investing to make a fortune. Today we have online brokerages and robo-advisors. That makes investing pretty much easier than ever.

Further, data is easy to access. You don’t need to read newspapers to gather the info about some stock. Yes, sometimes it can be fun and may bring a lot of entertainment, who likes it. But you have plenty of other ways out there to find the stock. Data is now easy to access and usually totally free.
You can start at less than $1.000. No one will think you are a loser if you start with less than $1.000 or with just little as $100.

Take profit of this, and take command of your future.

Investing has never been easier

The stock market isn’t out-of-reach and with a little amount of, let’s say $500 you can start investing. That is an optimal amount that may provide you decently returns. Start with this, try your hand. Of course, for the first investment, you can use some robo-advisor.

Ask your bank advisor to create an investment portfolio for you. There is no need to do it yourself alone.

Millennials’ fears to invest are without a real reason. The money is like sand. If you squeeze it in your hand, it will go through your fingers.

Don’t do that. You can play better and become a real wealthy. Grab your chance to win!

7th October 2019
How to Calculate the Fair Value of Your Stock

Fair value points to the genuine value of a stock or other security that is agreed between the two parties, the seller and the buyer. It can be calculated for the assets that are traded, but not for the products that are being liquidated. It can be a challenge to calculate the fair value if there are no obviously visible market prices. The point of this is to define the price or value that is fair for both sides, the seller will not be on the losing side, and the buyer will end with a satisfying price.

For example, a trader Anna sells its stocks to the trader John at $50 per share. The trader John believes he could sell it at $70 per share once he gets them. So, John buys 1,000 shares at the price Anna is setting. It is a fair value because both sides agreed the price and the trade is beneficial for each of them.

How to calculate fair value?

You can do it with comparable information, for example.

Use respectable financial news and find the last closing price for the stock you want to buy. Say, you want to buy 100 shares of some company and the last closing price of their stocks was $30. The fair value of 100 shares would be 100 x 30 = $3,000.

Also, you can calculate the fair value using the discounted cash flows.

For example, you want to examine investment that offers a range of cash flows. And you can’t find anything comparable. So, how to calculate the fair value of the investment?

Let’s say it is an investment of $10,000 and it generates $2,500 cash flow per year. What you have to do is to write down the cash flows for, let’s say, 5 years.

$10,000

1 – $2,500
2 – $2,500
3 – $2,500
4 – $2,500
5 – $2,500

Assume that the rate of return is 6%, and first calculate the discount factor so that you could calculate the discounted cash flows for each year.

For calculation purposes, the percentages need to be transformed into whole numbers. It is done by adding 100 to the number of percents and then dividing that sum by 100, i.e. (100+6)/100=1.06. Now you can calculate the discount factor for each year by rising to power of that year this number, i.e. to the power of 1 for 1st, to power of 2 for 2nd, and so on.

That should look like this:

1.06^1 = 1.06
1.06^2 = 1.12
1.06^3 = 1.19
1.06^4 = 1.26
1.06^5 = 1.34

The next step is to divide every $2,500 cash flow by the discount factor for each of these five years.

$2,500 / 1,06 = $2,359
$2,500 / 1,12 = $2,232
$2,500 / 1.18 = $2,100
$2,500 / 1.26 = $1,984
$2,500 / 1.34 = $1,866

This produces five discounted cash flows of: $2,359, $2,232, $2,119, $1,984, and $1,866.
Add these five numbers to -10,000. That was the initial investment, do you remember? Let’s see the result. The result is 541. This means that using a 6% rate of interest, the fair value of this particular stocks is $541.

Also, you can calculate the fair value for a stock is by using the P/E (price to earnings) ratio.

The formula to calculate the P/E ratio is

the current stock price per share / current earnings per share

What you have to do is to compare P/E ratios among companies from the same industry. For example, if you want to find the fair value for a utility, you have to compare the P/E ratio to other P/E ratios in that industry.

If the company has a high P/E ratio it usually means the company is overvalued. On the other hand, a low P/E ratio shows the company is undervalued. For example, if you hold a stake of shares in a company with a P/E ratio of 4 and the average P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry is 2, you can be sure that your stock is expensive or, in other words, overvalued.

The next thing to do is to modify the stock price to the average P/E ratio. Let’s say the average P/E ratio is 2, and the P/E ratio on your stock is 4. This means the current price is $8 and earnings per share is $2. We know that by following the P/E ratio formula.

Use the P/E calculation to find what the stock price needs to have a P/E ratio of 2.

The equation is

New P/E ratio x Earnings per share

And the answer is 2 x $2 or $4. The fair value for this stock is $4, not $8.

Bottom line

The puzzle of what security is really worth is one of the basic questions in investing. By calculating fair value, you will find the answer, maybe not exactly but you will be very close to it. Although, fair value calculations are essential to any investor’s stock.

Ways to fair value can classify value investors and growth investors.

The growth investors will estimate earnings that can be unstable. On the other hand, value investors will buy stocks at a discount to their fair value. They will wait for the fair value of their investments to rise. But both kinds of investors have to know that their companies can stumble. Also, the company may get significantly bigger which will cause keeping historical growth rates difficult.

The point is to buy stocks that will rise to meet the fair value of the company.

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3rd October 2019
Stock Investing – The Pros and Drawbacks

5 min read

by G. Gligorijevic

Stock investing isn’t just buy and sell stocks. It is the whole philosophy and math. Well, you have to learn more about the logic behind the stock market.

When you want to buy a stock, that means someone else has to sell it. Be aware, that someone has worked on the numbers and concluded that the wise move is to get out of the position right now. Do you know why that one decided like that? How to be sure you are doing a good job if you pick that stock?

Stock picking is a struggle against other investors.

Maybe they know just like you, maybe more, maybe less.

The basic formula is easy: Pay a value that’s smaller than the long-term, per-share price of the underlying business. The philosophy of investing is in understanding how to determine that value.

Maybe you prefer to be a “growth” investor. So, your focus should be on the analysis of a company’s potential for future profits. You should choose the one growing fastest. As a growth investor, you are interested in great earnings. The P/E or price-to-earnings ratio is a popular metric for valuing stocks. Growth investors often are willing to pay P/Es of 20 or more.

Value investors usually buy stocks with lower P/E ratios. This appears more traditionally. But buying cheap has some risks. Very often when some stock is cheap it is a sign that the company has some problems. Is this true? No! Simply NOT! There is no easy way or formula that helps you to pick a fabulous stock to deal with. You have to research and make a decision.

But maybe you should invest in funds than individual stocks.

Stock investing demands time and intense analysis. It also needs notable cash to create a fully diversified portfolio. A choice is a mutual fund. That will spread your bets between hundreds of stocks.

Stock investing is attractive and enjoyable for a lot of people. If you want to enter the market on your own, you can use funds as the essence of your portfolio. Later, just set aside a small account for your selection of the individual stocks.

One of the main benefits of investing in the stock market is the chance to grow your money. Over time, the stock market performs a rise in value. Yes, the prices of individual stocks rise and fall daily. But, investments in solid companies that are able to grow, tend to make profits for investors. Moreover, investing in many different stocks will boost your wealth by leveraging growth in different areas of the economy. It will bring you a profit even if some of your individual stocks lose value.

Stock investing gives a lot of benefits to investors.

Owning stocks means to take advantage of a growing economy.
How does it come?
That is a kind of chain of good fortune. Everything is connected and logical.
Assume you want to buy a stock you’ve been examining for some time. And finally, they announce a surprise bit of good news and the price rallies sharply higher and so you jump in.
Let’s say, you have a sudden profit on your hands but, the stock reverses. It has retracted back to your entry price. Actually, it has gone beyond your entry price and you are a loser! You may think that it’s just market games and “shaking out weak hands”. So, you decided to hold on, knowing that patience is a trading power. Finally, you’re down further than you expected to be in the stock.
If you were ultra convinced of the upside potential, you may see this as an opportunity to buy more shares at a better price. On the other hand, you may panic and sell as you continue to watch the price trend further against you.

What happened?

Experts developed the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which states that stock prices instantly diminish all news. So, there’s no possible way for a trader to profit from news releases. That experts feel that strongly.

Here is one example.

Maybe two years ago, Samsung announced it is expecting profits to hit record levels in the third quarter. And almost three times as much as the same period the year before.
Following the announcement, their share price dropped.
That might seem counter-intuitive. But there are other factors at play. At the same time as announcing this expected profit win, Samsung’s CEO quit. He told that the company was going through an “unprecedented crisis” and that “a new spirit and young leadership” was needed to respond to the challenges. In this case, the decline in stock price can be understood. You know, if the CEO is worried, perhaps investors should be too.

But sometimes share prices drop on good news and it is really hard to understand why.

Market expectations are always priced into the market price. Say, for example, a company has a forecasted earning per share of $1. They’ve never missed an earnings target. So investors expect the firm will actually earn $1.10 per share. They think it’s currently undervalued. The firm then announces an earnings report of $1.05 per share.

Good news, right? They beat their forecast.

But, crucially, because investors thought the firm should earn more than this $1.05 per share, the stock’s price was bid upwards to a price that reflected earnings expectations. Because the real earnings are less than the current market price, the stock price drops as investors sell off their shares.
This effect can be intensified by investors who completely copy what everyone else is doing. In this case, selling off their shares. Every investor must have the bigger picture. That’s the point.

What you have to do?

If the stock is basically strong, hold the stock despite the stock price going down. It won’t matter much in the long term if the company. Most of the great companies focus on their long-term goals. This means that a few times, they might miss the short-term expectations.
But, short-term interests shouldn’t be ignored completely by the company or investors. Nevertheless, if the company is overall performing good in the long run, then there’s no point of worry. In any business, there will be few difficulties in the short run.
Additionally, do not get connected to short-term expectations. Analysts will keep on making expectations every quarter. It’s their job and this is what they are paid for. If a company keeps on working for the short-term goals, it might never be able to focus on long-term growth.
Overall, if the temporary setbacks are not going to affect the long-term profitability of the company, then ignore the short-term fluctuations and hold your stock.

2nd October 2019
How to Buy Preferred Stock – The Tricky Road Is Now Simpler
3 min read

by Guy Avtalyon

KEY POINTS
- Preferred stocks are hybrid security. Let’s say, something between bonds and common stocks.
- The preferred stocks are riskier than bonds but less than common stocks
- Pay attention to THIS! Don’t buy a preferred stock issue at or near par value.
I know you’re probably thinking now to buy preferred stock and where to find them? Truth is it isn’t so easy to find them, so let me help you a bit.

I’ll give you the additional data that you can’t find ANYWHERE else.

First of all, preferred stocks are hybrid security. Let’s say, something between bonds and common stocks. You have to know that they are riskier than bonds but provide higher payments. And that is exactly what we want – higher returns, right?

By holding preferred stocks, you will receive regular fixed dividends. The procedure of buying them is the same as it is with common stocks. Firstly, you have to choose your broker. The thing you have to check is that your broker has a good and reliable list of preferred stocks. So, check the range of it before any commitment. Well, you will need some personal research on preferred stocks to pick the right one or several from the list of shares your accessible through your broker. Take your time, they are worth your effort.

Now, you have to recognize preferred stocks that match your interest. Evaluate the companies you have info that will work well in the future. Keep in mind that preferred stocks are long-term investments.

You can trade them on the stock market in the same way you would do it with common stocks.

Just like bonds, preferred stocks have credit rating and that is also needed to be checked.

Where can you get this info?

From a corporate credit rating bureau. Based on the data you receive from the bureau you will know if investing in preferred stocks is a good choice for you.

But there is one tricky part that shouldn’t terrify you.

You will see that credit rating for this kind of stocks is lower than it is for bonds. That comes due to their risky nature. As you can see at the beginning of this article, the preferred stocks are riskier than bonds but less than common stocks.

Let’s go straight to the point. How to buy preferred stocks, where you can find them?

You have to read balance sheets. In the stockholders’ equity section, you will notice the amount obtained from issuing preferred stock.

In the income statement, you will find the annual preferred dividends report.

Analyze issuing companies completely. Put your feelings about some company away. You are not investing based on your feelings. You have to do that based on your investing goals and risk tolerance. You will need a strong understanding of how a company’s stock works before you make a decision.

Read the stock’s prospectus. It is easy to find them online.

Preferred stocks offer a bit more than common stocks or bonds.

Actually, preferred stocks bring great deals. For example, yields average is 6.1%. It is much above the high-yielding sectors of the market, for example utility stocks and real estate investment trusts.

Where to find preferred stocks?

Try to find them among banks, and different financial companies, since they issue more than 80% of preferred stocks. Also, you can find them in telecommunications, health care, energy or similar companies.

Companies usually issue these stocks at $25 per share. That is par value. When investors start trading them, the price will go up or down. It is due to the interest rates. Just like bonds. When the interest rates climb the price of preferred stocks will fall. And vice versa.

In regular market conditions, preferred stocks should be better than high-quality bonds. They have to provide you steady income. And taxes below those for bonds interest.

How to buy a preferred stock simply?

Look here! A necessary starting point is an online broker that provides screening tools. Companies ordinarily give a grace period before they can redeem shares. It is usually 5 years after they issue preferred stocks. Besides that, a company may recall its shares at any time. So, keep a close eye on the call date.
Check all dates carefully to be sure you have at least 18 months before a company can repurchase shares.

I don’t know if you’ll buy it today or in a month or year. But I want you to know this!

Experience tells that preferred stocks under $23 are riskier, but if they are over $28 the yield could be too low. Moreover, if it is over $28 the potential loss could be bigger if the stock is called at $25 per share. A perfect yield should be between 5% and 7%, say experts. If the yield is higher, the potential risk is bigger.

Pay attention to THIS!

Don’t buy a preferred stock issue at or near par value.
1st October 2019
Preferred Stock Advantages Explained

Take advantage of owning these stocks, they are paying guaranteed dividends, but the owner doesn’t have the voting rights

By Guy Avtalyon

Preferred stock signifies an ownership stake in some companies. It is like a share of common stock but less volatile.
But there are more advantages to hold preferred stocks. For example, they are prioritized when it comes to dividends or bankruptcy. But by owning this stock you will not have the same voting rights as owner of common stock. Actually, you will not have them.

Preferred stock is similar to bonds. See, with preferred shares, you will have a fixed dividend in continuity. And you can easily calculate the dividend yield. All you have to do is to divide an amount of dividend in the currency by the current price of the stock. Yield is the effective interest rate you earn when you buy a share of the preferred stock.

Let’s do some math.

Assume a preferred stock has an annual dividend of $6 per share and is trading at $120 per share. So, the yield is $6 divided by $120 which is 0.05. Multiply by 100 to turn to the percentage. The yield is 5%.

6/120 = 0.05

0.05 x 100 = 5

This is regularly based on the standard value ere a preferred stock is sold. It’s generally determined as a percentage of the current market price after the trade starts. This is a difference from a common stock. Common stock has variable dividends that are published by the board of directors and it is never guaranteed. Moreover, a lot of companies don’t pay out to common stocks.

The added difference is that this kind of stock has a par value. It is in correlation with the interest rate. If the interest rate increases, the value of preferred stock drops. Also, when the interest rate decreases, the value of this stock will grow. You will not find a similar situation with common stock since its value is determined by supply and demand in the market.

Why buy preferred stock?

Investors frequently buy preferred stock for the income the dividends give. The dividends for them are higher than those issued for common stock. And the other benefit is notable. If the company has to miss out on a dividend it collects, it still must pay preferred stock dividends before any common stock dividends come to the schedule. That is why they carry less risk than common stock. Preferred stock owners must be paid before common stockholders if the company failed or in case of bankruptcy.

When evaluating the investment potential of preferred stock, it is most important to compare the dividend yield to the yields of the company’s bonds. You will find that preferred stocks often work similarly to bonds.
Preferred stock is a good choice for investors who don’t want to take a big risk. Moreover, it is less volatile than common stock and provides a better flow of dividends.

How to buy preferred stock?

The process is the same as you buy any stock. You can use a broker’s service, doesn’t really matter if it is a discount broker or full-service broker. The main point is that the company has to be publicly-traded, of course. But before you start finding a preferred stock to buy, you must know why should you do that. Why don’t you buy that company’s common stock?
When buying common stock, you’re actually buying a part of ownership in the company. You’ll have voting right as one of the co-owners. On the other hand, if you buy a preferred stock you’ll almost never get voting right.

They have regular dividends payments

When you buy preferred stock, you’ll get regular dividends payments. That is opposite from the owner of common stock that doesn’t have guaranteed dividends. Even a case that the company stops to pay dividends, your unpaid dividends are still yours and once, when the company decides to continue these payments, you’ll receive them.
The other advantage of buying preferred stocks is that your investment will be repaid in full even if the company goes bankrupt.
The owner of common stocks will get nothing instead.

One thing more is present here.

Those stocks give more options to investors. Let’s explain this. Numerous preferred shares are callable. This means the issuer can purchase them at any time. Investors have a true chance for these shares to be called back at a redemption rate. It can be a notable bonus over their purchase price. The market for preferred shares usually assumes callbacks and prices may be bid up respectively.

And we must point out one disadvantage again. Its shareholders regularly do not have voting rights as the owners of common stock. It may be a problem for some investors.

30th September 2019
Trade War Spillover In The Stock Markets

3 min read

The U.S. Treasury announced in a Saturday statement that the administration “is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time.” Following this news, Dow Jones futures grew a bit on Sunday evening, the same happened with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.

Only one day before, Bloomberg reported the Trump administration is thinking about limiting the exposure of US investment to China. Such a decision would have an impact on public pension funds’ exposure to China’s market and limitation for Chinese companies in main stock indexes.

The information about delisting Chinese stocks from U.S. exchanges frightened investors. The consequences of the trade war spillover were that Alibaba stock dropped 5.1%, slipping through its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. JD.com stock dropped 6% to a bit over its 200-day. Two Chinese IPOs, Pinduoduo slipped 4.2% and Huya stock 9.4% due to trade war spillover. New Oriental Education stock, dropped 6.55%, which is under its 50-day line.

Beijing described possible limitations on U.S. investments in China “the latest attempt at a decoupling,” published in Global Times on Sunday. All reports of Chinese state-owned media stated that the delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges would have deep impact on both, Chinese and US economies.

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Monica Crowley’s, U.S. Treasury assistant secretary for public affairs, stated this weekend that US administration is not thinking to block Chinese companies: “We welcome investment in the United States.”

The trade war between the US and China lasts almost one year. The next round of discussions will be held one week after China’s National Holiday, 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1.

The Chinese economy is the second-largest in the world. Its progress in the field of artificial intelligence and chips is notable. Also, robotics, 5G, energy storage could lead China to be the most powerful in advanced technologies.

What to watch in the stock market in the week ahead?

The next few days will produce some earnings releases, which could give some individual stocks moving.

Costco

Market Cap $125.758B

Its earnings report appear this week. It looks that Costco had benefit throughout the quarter. The analysts estimated they have earnings of around $2.54 per share. Last year it was $2.36. So, the expectations are a 7.6% increase.

Costco will reveal its results on Thursday. The investors are expecting to see good news. This warehouse retailing giant has enjoyed a nice increase in customer traffic lately. In the fiscal fourth quarter, it grew 6% in the U.S. market and over its global sales.

Stitch Fix

Market Cap $1.85B

This company’s earnings release will be revealed on October 1.

Its stock has dropped more than half of its value during the past 12 months. But this online service that gives clothing services has built solid annual income growth in the past 3 years.

Client numbers rose 16.6% in the fiscal third quarter. This is, of course, assuming Stitch Fix keeps its pricing in check. The analysts estimate is calling for $0.04 per share this week. Good news for shareholders.

Constellation Brands

Market Cap $39.511B

The company’s earnings release will be public on October 3.

The company has succeeded to keep a very constant sales trend within an alcohol industry. In the last 5 years, Constellation Brands has grown its earnings from sales. Its investment in Canopy Growth was a weak move since the Canopy didn’t show some good results this year. But the company’s beer segment may show better condition. For now, that is the best part of Constellation Brands’ business.

30th September 2019
Chinese Stocks May Get Delisted From the US Market

2 min read

By Guy Avtalyon

Bloomberg published Friday that the Trump administration is analyzing to severely limit U.S. financial flows to China. They are considering to restrict the ability of federal pension funds to invest in Chinese companies. Also, severer requirements that could cause Chinese companies to delist from U.S. stock exchanges are on the table.

According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 156 Chinese companies are listed on the US stock exchanges. Their entire market capitalization is above than $1 trillion.

U.S. stock markets are burning on this news.

Among Chinese companies that might be delisted are Alibaba Group, Baidu, Nio, JD.com, Tencent Holdings.

Last market reports show that Alibaba and other Chinese stocks fell on reports White House. Even though it isn’t clear what particular actions the administration considers. The Times states that White House wants to block “longstanding loopholes that have allowed Chinese companies with links to its government to take advantage of America’s financial rules to solicit funds from American investors without proper disclosure.”

Shares of Alibaba and other Chinese companies fell Friday after reports the White House is studying plans to restrict U.S. investments in China.

The stocks traded on the Nasdaq, Alibaba fell more than 5% in the last trading day last week, Baidu and JD.com fell 3.6% and 6%, NIO 13%, Huya had fallen 12%, Baidu fell 4%.

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF, fore example, China Construction Bank, and Tencent Holdings are members among others, also dropped by 1.2%.

This is actually disturbing

Capital Hill hawks want to limit US investors’ portfolio flows into China. That would have huge consequences for billions of dollars in investment in major indexes.

The options in considerations are: delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges and restricting Americans’ exposure to the Chinese market. Precise methods are still unknown and the plan has to be approved by President Trump. But he gave the green light to the study, as an unofficial source said.

The other step of Trump administration could be to restrict the Chinese companies included in stock indexes. Even if managed by US companies. Many Chinese companies were added to major indexes over past years and a lot of investors have access to them.

For example, Chinese companies have been added into the MSCI Inc.’s indexes since last year. Bloomberg Barclays started adding Chinese bonds to its leading Global Aggregate Bond Index in April this year.

In reply to the news, Nasdaq stated, “One critical quality of our capital markets is that we provide non-discriminatory and fair access to all eligible companies. The statutory obligation of all U.S. equity exchanges to do so creates a vibrant market that provides diverse investment opportunities for U.S. investors.”

Bottom line

The US administration is doing everything to untangle the US economically from China. Many analysts thought this move would be one that might be taken by China as part of negotiations to put more advantages on their side in this Trade War.
The decision to delist China stock from the US markets is an unusual shift. It might be too dangerous for investors to be in Chinese stocks now.

29th September 2019
How Often to Check The Investments?

2 min read

by Guy Avtalyon

Your investments should certainly be periodically checked but not every day. Even though it is your money invested. You have a bigger chance to lose money if you check your investments every single day.

How?

Well, you know that the price changes occur very frequently due to the stock market volatility. The stock price can rise and drops hourly. Watching that, you may feel a bit more nervous about your investments and provoke you to sell instead to hold and wait for the price to increase. Also, you have to know that daily fluctuation in stock prices does not influence your investments. The most important is how your stocks perform in a bigger time frame.

If you check your investment too frequently, you will end up acting irrationally to market movements and sell your stock at a low price.

Yes, I know, our investments may give us the impression that we will never end up with sufficient money. You have to know how often to check your investments so that you don’t destroy them.

For new investors, quick gains can cause investing to look impressive. It is normal to check your investment every night. I can understand that. I know some investors are checking several times a day. If you need to be worried about your investment it is a sign you made the wrong choice.

If your portfolio loses just a bit in a few days or weeks there is no reason to panic. The statistic shows that fresh investors usually put money in mutual funds or ETFs because they are afraid to invest in more volatile stocks and they avoid them. The truth is that holding stocks requires more attention, time to track them, and knowledge.

But you can’t have only mutual funds or ETFs in your portfolio and check them once a year. You would like to have stocks as well. And a lot of things will be changed.

So, how often to check the investments?

With stocks, things are pretty different. You have to check them at least once a week to notice if something, some event, for example, influences your investment.

If you are holding or trading individual stocks, try to check them quarterly. OK, maybe monthly if you are so nervous. It is reasonable to check your investments from time to time. But too much checking can make you panic and sell at a lower price. And you will start that chain. That frequently checking will cause trading, fast trading will cause over-selling, over-selling will produce more fees and costs. Also, if you have too much trades you will have low returns.

It is smart to pick a good investment strategy and stay with it. Check the progress of your investment quarterly and check the price, for example, monthly.

With mutual funds and ETFs, you have wide diversification, so once a year is enough.

With stocks, check it out by online approval or in the paper version. Most of the financial websites such as Yahoo Finance and some others offer stock research data. Also, your broker has quotes available.

How often to check your investments? Less is better. You are investor, investing is a marathon, it is for a long run. Make a reasonable plan, according to your risk tolerance, be patient. Rebalance your investments once a year and let your money work for you.

23rd September 2019
Market Timing – A Way to Beat The Stock Market

How is market timing possible? Read to the end.

By Guy Avtalyon

Market timing is the method of buying and selling in the market based on financial inclinations, business information, and market circumstances.

It is a kind of investment or trading strategy. It is an effort to beat the stock market by prognosticating its movements and buy and sell according to that data. While you are making moves in the financial market, changing the asset classes, you need some predictions. To make predictions you need tools, for example, technical indicators, financial and economic data, to be able to estimate how the market will move.

From these tools needed you can easily see that the market timing is in contrast to a buy-and-hold strategy.

Some investors don’t believe that is impossible to time the market. But on the other side, you have a whole range of investors, especially traders that are sure in it. Well, both sides are right, at some point. It is pretty hard to time the market, but it is possible for the short run. Seeking to time the market over the long run can be difficult and may show a lack of consistency.

Is market timing possible?

If you are a short-term trader or full-time investor, you may have some good results but you have to be an exceptional one to notice the right time to buy and sell in the market. The statistic is explicit, there is no notable success in comparison with the buy-and-hold investor.

Market timing is related to tactical asset allocation or dynamic investing.

Let’s say you want to invest $10,000 and you put $5,000 in the stock, $3,00 in the bonds, and $2,000 in the cash.

The market timer tries to sell when the price is the highest and to sell when the price is at the lowest level. So, the trader or investor confidence to market time will sell some part of stocks in case the interest rates are increasing and buy bonds. Such an investor wants to profit from something called a market “peak” for stocks and the start of growth for bonds.

The believer in market timing is sure that price movements in short-time are essential and usually predictable. That’s why the market anomalies are important to them to support their opinion. Chart patterns that are repeating are also important to them. Their investment horizon is shorter, it can be minutes, days, or months. On the other side, long-term investors, so-called buy-and-hold, prefer to estimate the long-term potential of their investments by employing fundamental analysis. They are estimating the company’s strategies, products, etc.

Market time investors will use leverage to gain returns. This will add more risk to their portfolios but their returns could be higher too.

Are there any costs for it?

Investors that practice this strategy claim that by using this method they are able to diminish losses. The principle is quite simple, they just have to move one sector before drawbacks. You see, their aim is to find a safe investment and avoid market volatility while they are holding volatile investments. Market timing investors that attempt to time entries and exits very often may underperform the long-term investors. The reason behind, it is extremely hard to gauge the next direction of the market. Despite their optimism, the real costs for the majority of them are higher than the possible gain of moving in and out of the market.

There are also extra trading commissions and capital gains taxes. The continuous analysis linked with market timing requires frequent asset reallocation and a lot of trading activity. Much more than passive investing. If you want to practice this method you will need more time and an excellent education.

Market timing is a questionable approach. You can find a lot of very serious studies that have revealed that the market’s bottoms and tops are pretty hard to find consistently.

Moreover, long-term investors truly support the efficient market hypothesis, which claims that the prices are random and reflect all available data, so it is impossible to outperform the market in the long run. It is especially too hard in a short time since it is impossible to forecast stock prices. Although, market timing has huge and faithful followers among investors. Can we say they are enjoying the challenge to consistently produce higher-average returns? Maybe.

The most important thing for all investors is the fact that they have to watch their investments, to watch charts and they have to know the market timing method.

23rd September 2019