Category: How to Master in Trading – Advanced

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This category – How to Master In Trading – Advanced is directed at elite traders. The impressive thing is that all posts and articles are very precise in explanation no matter how complicated the subject is. All advanced trading techniques, methods, strategies are understandable thanks to comprehensive and detailed explanations.

  • The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing
    Diversification has to be a well thought out step for investors. It can boost growth and lead you to wealth. But if doing improperly, it can cause costly failures.

    Investors infrequently pay attention to the danger of diversification. All taught that the idea of diversification is to reduce the portfolio’s risk. And nothing is wrong with that. Some amount of diversification is important or investors will take too much risk that will never be neutralized for.
    But sometimes too much can be very bad. It is the same with the diversification of the portfolio if it is too diversified. And we will explain to you the danger of diversification. 

    So, in the first place, the danger of diversification may come when the diversification is done improperly but also if the investment portfolio is over-diversified. But let’s go step by step through all examples of the danger of diversification because they can be very costly. They can ruin the whole investment and leave you with your empty hands.

    The danger of diversification in investing

    Portfolio without focus

    No one will tell you that the danger of diversification is the reduced quality of your investments. In investing, one of the very important parts is to have a well-focused portfolio. That provides investors to have the best opportunities. To say this way, publicly listed companies are not all worthy to invest in. Also, what is maybe more important, you can find even fewer companies that are so-called safe investments. In order to have well-diversified portfolios, investors don’t pay enough attention when picking the stocks they could add many of them that don’t give a margin of safety to the portfolio. That will cause a reduction in the quality of investment. That would be the danger of diversification.

    A complicated mixture of assets

    The other danger may appear if investors add too many assets without truly understanding what they have. In other words, their portfolios are too complicated. The point with investing is to have control over your investments and know what they are. If you have too many assets from different classes you would be lost in attempting to follow them and to stay on top of them. 

    Portfolio volatility

    It’s very important to understand that the more stocks you add to your portfolio, it will be more correlated to the market returns. There is some logic behind and you have to understand it because portfolio volatility can lower your portfolio performance. So, it can be too risky. Always keep in mind that the number of investors that ever reach average returns is under the average. The reason is the volatility caused by risk.

    Having an index fund instead of a portfolio

    Instead of buying too many stocks and adding too many assets, it’s better to buy some index funds. If you have too many assets, your portfolio will look like an index fund anyway. So indexing can be the danger of diversification. Indexing is good when the bull market, but if it is bear you could be faced with a lot of problems and danger.

    Indexing, as well as over-diversification, represents the hidden danger of diversification. For example, if your portfolio may not have quality if you hold second-rate investments along with great investments. Sometimes, holding so-called inferior investments is the result of ef emotional buying, so avoid that. Pick stocks after you research them, never based on some emotions.

    What can put us in danger of diversification?

    The largest single danger is a surprise risk. Surprises are often part of our everyday life but when it comes to our investment it is a sign that we as investors are not cautious enough. Investors should be aware of risks and to predict them as much as possible. It is crucial in investing, due to safety, to quickly transfer our assets that show more risks than we expected or we can accept.

    Also, forget you’re able to have an excellent and perfect plan for your future. Very often some unexpected events can arise. For example, this coronavirus pandemic that we have now. These events have a great impact on our investments so if we have over-diversified portfolios how could we manage all the investment? It’s almost impossible.

    The perfect investment plan doesn’t exist. Every single investor made some mistakes. Just listen to what Warren Buffet has to say about his mistakes and wrong decisions. Yes, even him.

    The belief that you are always right isn’t only a stupidity, it is a more dangerous practice. However, it demands to keep on learning in order to modify your behavior. 

    If you never change your behavior you’ll take too many risks and you’ll put yourself in one of the dangerous situations. Moreover, you’ll never grow as an investor and, also, your capital will not grow. Sometimes it is better to give up and admit we are wrong than stay with the wrong plan and make more mistakes. 

    Comfort from following others

    We are all vulnerable and insecure at some level, whether we admit it or not. A great number of people seek help in instant solutions. The easiest way is to follow what other investors do. That’s a kind of psychological effect. If the majority is doing something, how can that be wrong? Remember, only a few investors know how to make money on the stock market. The others, the majority fail. The stats are cruel. 

    The winners represent a small part of all investors. 

    Investing is difficult but it can be very successful and profitable. All you have to do is to guess where the new gain capacity will come from. The tricky part is that you cannot do that without the knowledge and without comprehensive research. The best suggestion is: follow the standards, not the people.

    The fake feeling of security can bring us to the danger of diversification

    The truth is that many apparently diversified portfolios aren’t really diverse. For example, if your portfolio consists of stocks of 5 different companies and 5 different industries it might seem as a well-diversified one. But if all your portfolio consists of 100% stock in one market index and they are all based in the same country and have exposure to the same currency, you have a very dangerous diversification. In other words, your investment is at great risk. 

    You might think you made a great choice, but in reality, you are at risk to lose everything if some unfortunate event hit that country or currency.

    Bottom line

    Proper diversification is a matter of great importance. Smart investors allocate their money based on their own valuations, never on some prophecy or doubted predictions. Avoid over-diversification if you are invested in ETFs or mutual funds since it is a common mistake. When picking the stocks, seek the highest quality companies, to direct the chances of success in your favor.

    The bright side of portfolio management is that you can avoid the danger of diversification if you manage your portfolio on your own. Diversification is an extremely crucial concept in portfolio management, but it has to be done properly. When building your portfolio keep in mind the danger of diversification in investing. That will help you to reach optimal diversification.

  • Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use

    Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use

    Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use
    “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” – Benjamin Graham

    To find accurate value investing tools you’ll need time, a lot of it to do your homework. Finding the right tools requires a lot of research. It is the same as finding a good value stock to invest in. It can be so complicated that many investors are scared of all that job. 

    But if you don’t like to do your own research, here are some tricks to help you. 

    By having the value investing tools to value a company and evaluate its prospects, you can eliminate unsuitable stocks. Also, you can do it more quickly and focus on the best picks. One of the most accurate among value investing tools is the P/E ratio. 

    P/E ratios as value investing tools 

    The price-earnings ratio or P/E ratio is classified as a primary tool to identify undervalued or cheap stock. It is a simple metric that is easy to calculate. All you have to do is to divide a stock’s price per share by its earnings per share. Earnings per share is shortly expressed as EPS. Value investors always have the P/E ratio in their value investing tools boxes and seek a low P/E ratio. A lower ratio means that they will pay less per each dollar of the company’s current earnings.

    But this metric has some downsides. Of course, it is still a good start but if you rely on this one measure solely it is more likely your strategy will not be accurate and successful. 

    Investors are frequently attracted by low P/E ratio stocks. The problem is that they can be inaccurate and inflated numbers. Sometimes, companies report incorrectly high earnings sums or some forecasts show much higher earnings, so the low P/E ratio can be false. Everything becomes more clear after real earnings reports and the P/E ratio goes up and investors’ research result is false too.

    So, if you use the P/E ratio alone you’ll end up trapped with the wrong decision.

    Use PEG ratios as value investing tools

    If the P/E ratio is flawed, what should you do to find true value stocks? Which one of the value investing tools you have to use? PEG ratio will help you to recognize if a company with earnings growth is trading below its intrinsic value. The price-to-earnings ratio or PEG ratio can help you to avoid some traps while searching for value stocks. To calculate the PEG ratio use this formula:

    PEG Ratio = Price To Earnings Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate

    If the PEG ratio is less than 1 it is supposed to be a sign of an undervalued stock and it is possible to buy such stock at discount. So, the PEG ratio of 1 means the company is correctly valued. Contrary, if the PEG ratio is above 1 it may indicate that a stock is too expensive. But the PEG ratio shouldn’t be used as an individual metric. The valuation puzzle requires using other value investing tools to have a comprehensive picture of the stock’s value. 

    For many investors, the PEG ratio is a favorite among value investing tools due to its ability to show the stock that is at discount. However, as with all of the value investing tools the PEG ratio is useful to recognize the stock that could deserve a closer look. You’ll need more research and tools to reveal the possibility that the stock is cheap for a reason, in which case it isn’t the right choice. Simply, you wouldn’t want such stock in your investment portfolios.

    But keep in mind, for example, various industries will have different PEG ratios. So be careful when judging the company’s value.

    The company’s cash flow

    The company is worth only the amount of the future cash flows it can make from its operations. Keep this in mind. The value investors will always check the company’s cash flow before starting to invest. 

    As we noticed above, the P/E ratio is by no means a complete measure. The company’s net income is only an accounting entry and it is often influenced by numerous non-cash costs, for example, by depreciation. Also, companies use tricks to misrepresent their earnings. As a difference, cash flows measure the real money that the companies paid out or acquired over a given period. 

    Cash flows exclude the influence of non-cash accounting charges. They don’t include depreciation or amortization. So they are more objective value investing tools because they only admit the real cash that flows into or out of a company. Cash flows are a clear picture of the company’s real profitability. However, we have to repeat, it makes no sense to estimate cash flows as the only tool you use when seeking the value investment. 

    Enterprise value

    It is important to compare operating cash flow to the company’s Enterprise Value if you want a clearer picture of the amount of cash the business is generating related to its total value.

    To explain the enterprise value. 

    It is as a number that in theory outlines the full cost of a company if someone buys 100% of it. If the company is publicly-traded, this means buying up every single of the company’s shares.

    To calculate it you have to sum up the company’s market capitalization, add debt, preferred stock together, and subtract out the company’s cash balance. The result will show how much money an investor or group of them would need to buy the whole company. So, it is an outstanding picture of the total value of the company.
    When you divide a company’s operating cash flow by its enterprise value, you can easily calculate the company’s operating cash flow yield. 

    These measures are also the value investing tools. Especially cash flow yield because it presents the amount of cash that the company generates per year in comparison to the total value investors invested in the company.

    Return-on-Equity – ROE is excellent for value investing tool

    ROE is another excellent tool that can help you to find value stocks.  

    It is a profitability ratio and measures the ability of a company to generate profits from its shareholders’ investments. To put it simpler, the ROE shows how much profit generates each dollar of stockholders’ investment generates.
    The ROE of 1 indicates that every dollar of stockholders’ investments generates 1 dollar of net income. This measure shows how efficiently a company uses investors’ equity to generate net income.

    ROE is also an indicator of how efficient management is.

    The formula is 

    ROE = Net Income / Shareholders’ equity

    This measure is broadly used, and it is easy to find the ROE lists for publicly traded companies on almost all financial websites. When investors look for value investment opportunities, they are looking to find a stable or growing ROE of the company. 

    However, there are some cautions. For example, some companies can produce enormous ROE in one year, but the next one or more years later resulted in reduced profitability.

    Also, the tricky part is the relationship between ROE and debt. For example, if the company is taking higher debt loads it is possible to use debt capital instead of equity capital. Such a company will have a higher ROE. These companies with exponential and fast growth can be favorable, but also, can ruin shareholder value. Investors prefer ROE at around the average of the S&P 500. 

    Bottom line

    Sadly, there’s no fixed method that will provide investors a distinct way to reveal the best value stock for investing. Investors have to take into consideration the company’s sector and industry, also, if the company has an advantage over its peers. Look for the companies that are able to become brands, or have some unique product, the new technology, in other words, with a sustainable competitive advantage. 

    Remember, some companies operate in a cyclical market. For example, automakers. Such companies will have great growth and huge returns in periods of the rising economy but they will fail if the economy is in a slowdown. So think about the company’s profitability under all conditions. 

    These value investing tools will help you to uncover plenty of potential picks and to find a good stock to invest with trust.

  • Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation

    Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation

    Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation
    Asset allocation is one of the most efficient investment strategies. The percentage allocation shows the level of risk and the expected return. What if the numbers are negative?

    By Guy Avtalyon

    If you wonder how it is possible to have negative numbers in asset allocation we will say the shorting on the asset may cause that.
    For example, you have a long-short strategy with two classes only: equity long, and equity short. You can be sure that an equity short class will have negative numbers in asset allocation because all short investments are allocated under this class.

    Asset allocation is important because it is an individual investment strategy. The numbers of stocks, bonds, commodities, cash show the level of risk and hence, how big returns an investor expects.
    Investors use asset allocations in their factsheets that have to precisely represent their investment strategy. The asset allocation sums up to 100%,  which means that the invested volume and cash all together build total net assets.

    But if you build a portfolio that makes weightings of asset classes, you’ll have the negative numbers in your asset allocation. A good example comes from futures contracts, they can make your cash weighting appear negative.

    This is connected to the leverage of the futures and the difference between the exposure and the actual book value of futures contracts. You know the future contracts are derivatives, right? Never mind. Let’s explain it in short.

    The influence of derivatives on negative numbers in asset allocation

    Derivatives receive their value from the performance of underlying assets. The issuer can modify practically arbitrarily the exposure of derivatives to the price changes of the underlying assets. The changes in the market value of the underlying asset can be strong or weak. That is the so-called leverage effect. But, also it can be inverse. The point is that some small changes in the market value of the underlying assets may cause a really huge change in the value of derivatives.

    Maybe the most popular derivatives are futures. Futures are contracts specified for the buying or sale of a financial instrument at a pre-arranged price in the future. 

    For the buyer of a futures contract we say to go long, hence the seller goes short. Futures are traded on exchanges. The counterparty risk is close to zero. To guarantee that traders of a futures contract can cover possible losses at any time, they have to deposit an amount of the overall exposure of that futures contract. That is a margin account. 

    What happens if the futures’ price goes against the trader?

    In such a case, the trader has to cover the losses on the margin account which is known as a margin call. But if the price goes in a trader’s direction, the trader will withdraw the profit from a margin account.

    Therefore, the trader only places a part of the overall futures contract exposure in cash on the table. So, there is leverage. For example, let’s imagine a trader enters a contract with exposure in the underlying of $100.000. The requested margin for that trade, meaning the booking value of such a futures contract is $20.000. A 1% rise in the underlying asset or +$1.000,  will result in a 5% rise in the booking value of the futures contract. So, the leverage in our example is 5.

    Let’s take a look at a portfolio example

    Let’s assume you have a portfolio of $500,000 net assets. The total volume is in cash, so the portfolio allocation is 100% cash. Now let’s enter into 10 of the futures contracts we mentioned prior, for example. The portfolio will consist now of $300.000 in cash and $200.000 invested in the futures contract. Expressed in percentages it will be 60% cash and 40% futures.

    Is this an accurate picture? If we examine the booking value, this allocation is perfectly mathematically accurate. But should we base the allocation on the booking value solely? Of course not, because it is useless.

    As the $200.000 booking value describes an exposure in the underlying of one million dollars, the allocation should display 60% cash and 200% underlying. This would show the real risk and anticipated potential return of this portfolio. But it is 260% in total?

    How the negative numbers in asset allocation occur

    We have only one test left now to understand negative numbers in asset allocation. 

    It is expected the sum of all allocation positions in the calculation that use the booking value equals 100%. But if we use the interpretable exposure it doesn’t. It is a lot above 100%, actually, it is 260%! How to solve this issue that puts investors in a difficult situation? Speaking from the financial point of view, this increased exposure is based on the leverage. If you want the same exposure in the underlying assets, you will need cash. But if you don’t want to use the remaining cash,  you have to lend the amount you need to invest in underlying assets. 

    This means you have to balance the leverage by an additional position. That is known as – synthetic cash.

    In our example, this will appear as an allocation of 60% cash, 200% underlying assets, and -160% in synthetic cash. But as managers of our portfolios, we like clear stats, so we can express our allocation as follows: underlying assets 200%,  – 100% cash (synthetic cash included).

    And can you see how the negative numbers in asset allocation arise? All without shorting.

    Negative returns as negative numbers

    Negative returns are valuable in risk estimation. Investors have negative returns when the percentage of periodical return is below zero. To calculate this you have to divide the number of negative returns by the number of all returns over a given period. In this way, you can see the negative returns frequencies. 

    For example, (note the numbers are for the purpose of this example only, they are not accurate) the negative return frequencies for 6-month returns from March 1960 to December 2001 were 2% for Treasury bills, 26% for long bonds,  and 24% for the S&P 500 Index.

    The high negative return frequency for long bonds implies that bonds in the long periods present lower volatility than stocks. And this is very important info when it comes to the risk estimation.

    The investors who recognize risk from the aspect of volatility, it might seem reasonable to believe that long bonds would have several more difficult years than stocks during a 41-year period. But this is a misconception. 

    But recent data show investment returns might not be normally distributed. The normal distribution can minimize the influence of market shocks, for example, market corrections. Also, it doesn’t take into account the changes in returns within and between separate asset classes.

    Do negative numbers in asset allocation have any positive aspects?

    There is some positive aspect of negative numbers also. 

    We know it isn’t easy to stick with your long-term strategy when the markets fall sharply. But you can lose the bigger picture when such dramatic times come. Just think about the future, the time when you really will need that money. The majority of portfolios have between 10 and 30 years time horizon. Stay focused on how many shares you have, don’t think what they are worth now.

    Continue with regular investing, buy shares at lower prices, just keep investing even the share prices are dropping. Keep in mind that the markets are cyclical. So, what is bad today easily may become fantastic tomorrow. Markets are moving up and down, the negative numbers in asset allocation can turn into positive. Who can predict the time and how sharp the market can drop. The only thing is sure, the down markets always recover ultimately.

  • Mistakes in Options Trading – How To Avoid Them?

    Mistakes in Options Trading – How To Avoid Them?

    Mistakes in Options Trading - How To Avoid Them?
    Options trading isn’t difficult once you understand the basic concepts. They provide great opportunities when you use them correctly and can be dangerous when you use them wrongly. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    You could make a profit no matter if stocks go down, up, or sideways and these great possibilities could lead you to make mistakes in options trading.  Despite the fact that this sounds great, you could also lose everything you invested in options trading. And you can do that in a short time. 

    Do you want that? Of course not. No one wants to lose money. So, what do we have to do?

    It is important to understand where mistakes in options trading can come from and how to avoid them. The truth is that even the most experienced traders can make mistakes in options trading. They can misunderstand some opportunity, have less caution, literally almost any absence of focus may cause mistakes in options trading. 

    We will examine the most frequent mistakes and how to avoid them and, also, how to overcome them.
    These mistakes are typically made by beginner options traders. So, take time to evaluate them and you can avoid making costly wrong actions.

    What mistakes can you make in options trading?

    Mistake 1: You don’t plan your entries and exits 

    Options trading is more complicated than trading stocks. When you enter the position in options trading, there are a lot more elements to watch and be aware than it is the case when trading stocks. In options trading, you cannot just enter and exit the position. You have to make a lot of adjustments if you want to profit and decrease the risks involved. 

    So the first mistake in options trading is to trade without a plan. This means you’ll enter the position and what is next? What are you going to do? Will you let your emotions to handle your trading? What if the price move against you? Will you pretend nothing is happening and like a child you’ll close your eyes until all problems go away?

    Of course, we know it’s impossible to put emotions out. But, also, we know that you can’t allow your emotions to affect your trading decisions. If you do such a thing, your portfolio could blow out and you’ll end up in losses.

    How to avoid a Mistake 1?

    Simply, trade smarter. It’s easy to say but how to avoid mistakes in options trading, particularly this one?

    Start to plan your exits. Exits are not important just to reduce the losses when things are not going in your favor. You must have an exit plan, in any case, you shouldn’t even enter the position before you have a good exit plan. Your upside exit and downside exit points must be set in advance. That means you already know the price targets. Further, a time frame for each exit is important too so you have to plan it.

    Keep in mind that options are time decaying assets. As the expiration date nears, the scope of decay grows. For example, if you are a long call or put and your expectations are more likely not to happen in the expected time frame, get out of the trade. Don’t wait, just go on to the next one.

    Time decay will not always knock your trade, of course. For example, if you sell options without having them, time decay will work for you. You’ll have a winning trade if time decay erodes the option’s price. You’ll keep the premium for the sale. Yes, that will be all you’ll earn if you are a short seller of a call or put option. The bad thing is that you may expect a great risk if the trade goes wrong.

    So, it isn’t a matter of what do you like or not, what strategy you’re running. You MUST have an exit plan for each trade. Even when you have a winning or losing trade. If your trade is winning don’t be greedy and don’t wait around for more. Exit with profit. If it is the opposite and your trade is losing, don’t wait also because you’ll need to exit the losing trade. Waiting with the hope that losing trade will turn into your favor is too risky.

    With having the plan, when you know your entry and exit points you’ll profit more consistently, you’ll reduce your losses. 

    Mistake 2: Using only the long call and long put strategies

    The important element when starting to trade options is to have a vision for what is possible to happen. In other words, you’ll have to estimate but also, your estimation must be accurate. You can use technical and fundamental analysis or a mixture of both. By using technical analysis you’ll have an interpretation of the volume and price in the charts, also you’ll look for support and resistance zones, trends because you would like to recognize opportunities for buy or sell. Fundamental analysis will show you a company’s financial audits, performance data, and current trends so you’ll be able to view the company’s value. 

    While estimating the different options strategies, you have to be sure the strategy you pick is created to take advantage of the outlook you suppose. You have to decide which is most suitable for your current situation.

    If you limit your trades to long call and long put strategies you’ll limit the probability to use some more profitable strategies. Moreover, they are unique, for options only and not implementable on stocks. 

    How to avoid mistakes in options trading?

    In trading options, you can trade an upward as well as downward move, a move in each direction, or without movement. Besides, you can trade, for example, an increase in volatility, or a decrease in volatility, etc. Is there any reason why shouldn’t you use some of these strategies and add them to your trading toolbox?

    Of course, not all options strategies will be good for every trader. There are some trading strategies that you don’t enjoy running. Maybe you didn’t have luck with them in the past. It isn’t necessary to use them but it can be useful to know them. Just try out the new strategy in a small size. That will not increase the cost per trade but new strategies might be interesting but most importantly, maybe you’ll find your next favorite strategy.

    Mistake 3: You wait too long to buy back short strategy

    This strategy can turn into a great mistake. You must be ready to buy back short strategies early. For example, if a trade is going in your favor it is easy to love the fanfare, but the trade may easily turn in a different direction. 

    We have heard numerous explanations of why traders are waiting too long to buy back options they have sold. Some were betting the contract would expire worthlessly, some didn’t want to pay the commission to get out of the positions,  or were just greedy hoping to get more profit out of the trade. The list of excuses is very long.

    How to avoid all mistakes in options trading?

    When a short option gets out-of-the-money and you want to buy it back, just do it. Don’t hesitate. 

    There’s a rule-of-thumb. If you can maintain to hold 80% or more of your original gain from the sale, think about buying it back quickly. Contrarily, a short option will come back and hurt you if you wait too long to close the position.

    Let’s say this way. For instance, you sold a short strategy for $2 and, for example, a week before the expiration date, you have an opportunity to buy it back for $1. Take it! Quite rarely it will be worth an additional week of the risk. 

    Mistake 4: You are buying out-of-the-money options

    This is common for new traders. We almost all tried this in the beginning. The reason is obvious. Out-of-the-money options are the cheapest and it looks like a great plan to start with them. Well, they are that cheap with a great reason and we understood that later. These options have very little chances of ending in the money. Most frequently they end up worthlessly. Trading these options is more a lottery game where you have to buy numerous tickets to see one that pays off and break even.

    When you buy these options, you must be accurate in timing and direction both. Even if you hold these options longer, a move in the right direction will not help you out. With approaching expiration, there is less possibility for these options to end up in the money. It’s more likely they will remain cheap.

    How to avoid this mistake?

    Try to get long calls or long puts at the money or in the money. That will increase their value since the options will be more costly than the out-of-the-money equivalent. So the probability of success will increase and it will deserve money.

    Mistake 5: Trying to overcome the past losses by doubling up

    All traders have certain absolute rules. They are playing well unless a trade turns against you. That experience is common for every single trader. Almost everyone was faced with a trade that turned against expectations. The first reaction is to break all adopted trading rules and continue trading the same option they started with. 

    Have you ever heard a saying “doubling up to catch up?” But it falls into stock trading. For example, if you bought the stock at $50 and you loved it, you’ll still love it at $30 because the lower price will give you a chance to buy more shares. This isn’t relevant in the world of options trading. It can be one of the great mistakes in options trading.

    How to avoid this mistake?

    This strategy called doubling up isn’t suitable for options trading. Don’t use it. Keep in mind that options are derivatives and that their prices don’t move the same direction as the underlying stock. 

    Yes, this strategy can lower your cost per contract for the entire position, but it can compound the risks. So when a trade goes against you, just ask yourself: “Is this a trade I would like to execute?” So, what to do in this case. Simply close the trade to cut losses and find another opportunity. To say this simply, it is smarter to take a loss now than wait and have bigger losses later.

    Everyone can make mistakes in options trading. They can be costly especially if you are trading cheap options. 

    Never think that cheap options can give you the same value as low‑priced options. Cheap options might have a bigger risk. You can lose everything you invested in them and more. the lower the likelihood is that it will reach expiration in the money. Before taking any action try to understand where the mistakes in options trading may arise.

  • Day Trading Stocks – Most Profitable Type Of Trading

    Day Trading Stocks – Most Profitable Type Of Trading

    For day trading stocks you need volume, volatility, and a trend or range tendency. When using a stock screener, enter your rules into the relevant fields to narrow the surplus of stocks down to a few.

    Maybe it is too difficult to explicitly say that one type of trading stocks is more profitable than the others but Day trading stocks is the choice of active traders because of its profitability. Why did we say it is difficult to point to the special one? Because it depends on what kind of trader someone is and, maybe much more, on which strategy the trader chooses to use. Also, it isn’t the same which market you trade and what assets you are trading. 

    The individual traders can make a few trades per day since it isn’t hard to enter and exit several trades daily. Of course, big investors would prefer long-term opportunities. 

    One is sure, getting into day trading stocks is a decision that no one should make in a hurry. You should take time to examine all difficulties, to learn them since day trading stocks requires very careful planning. Only in that way, you’ll be able to earn your life-time capital in just a few hours. Yes, it is possible because day trading stock is one of the most profitable types of trading.

    Before we jump into the day trading stocks we have to explain what day trading is.

    What is Day trading stocks? 

    Day trading stocks means the trader is opening and closing the position during one trading day. When a trader opens a trade at 10 PM and closes it before 2 PM we are talking about day trading. You can find the traders who trade day only, some will perform it depending on the situation and opportunities, but also, so many traders never implement day trading stocks.

    How does a day trader pick the stock?

    Of course, a day trader is very careful and never just picks a stock no matter which one. Day traders always estimate the reasons to trade a particular stock. And as the reasons are different, traders have different criteria and strategies.

    Since there are thousands of stocks in the market to choose from, the main question is how to do that? What is the best criterion, measure, method? It differs too. And if we try to figure it out, we can get confused. Look, some traders can find a new stock every single day. They are seeking stocks that are breaking out of patterns. Some are looking for the most volatile stock or the stocks that breakout of support or resistance levels. Also, some traders have the favorite stock or two and trade them every day for months or years. This isn’t without a good reason behind. If you know the particular stock very well, you’ll need less research on it. Since you already have the chosen one, you don’t need to search further for new stocks and breakouts or volatility. 

    How to find a stock for day trading?

    If you want to become a day trader, you have to pay attention to several things.

    Volume

    For a day trader, a stock volume is important to enter and exit trades. To explain this more. When the volume of the stock is high it is much easier to enter and exit the position and to do without slippage or with very little. Why is it important to avoid slippage or to lessen it? Slippage happens almost all times but generally during periods of high volatility when traders use the market orders. 

    It happens when a trader gets a different price than expected, no matter if such a trader is on an entry or exit from a trade. Slippage occurs when the market order or your stop-loss point shifts somewhere between the time of your entry and the time of the execution. This is especially noticeable during periods of higher volatility when orders are bigger than the usual amount of shares on the bid or offer.

    While choices vary, but many day traders will trade stocks with a daily volume of several million, some have over 90 million. That is a big number and it is hard to manage that. So day traders usually narrow the number of stocks down by using a stock screener. If they still have too many stocks to observe, the traders commonly reduce it to stocks with a volume of 3 of 4 million on a daily average.

    Volatility

    Volatility is important too because day traders need stocks with strong change during the day. The stocks have different volatility. Some will move 0.5% daily but others will move 5% or more per day. Picking the stock may depend on many factors, for example, reflexes, a trading style, your temper, etc. For the majority of traders, the stocks that shift 0.5% to 2% daily are the best choice since they can handle that volatility. Volatility over 5% daily is hard to handle. Only the most experienced traders trade these stocks.

    Trend and range

    These two components are important in day trading stocks. Traders differ by what they are trading, so we have trend traders, range traders and some that use both excellently. As you know, the trend is the direction of stock’s price, while the range is the difference between low and high prices over a particular trading time. The stock price is moving all the time. It can go down or up showing a downtrend or uptrend. A stock screener is very helpful here and will separate stocks with trend or range depending on your setups for the strategy you chose.

    How to learn day trading stocks?

    There are many ideas and methods to maximize profits from day trading. Nevertheless, managing the risks connected to day trading is most important.

    First, trade only the amount you can afford to lose. You must have aside some amount of money for day trading. Don’t rent money for day trading because it’s possible to lose it. Start with a small amount and keep strong control over losses until you get some knowledge and experience. Don’t think you can quit your day job immediately. Day trading is seductive, we know that. But you need to test your strategy when the markets get rocky, for example, during the recession. If you are profitable, you can easily shift to day trading.

    When to buy?

    Day traders try to make money by using small price movements in assets. They have to leverage vast amounts of money to do so. They are focused on liquidity. That allows them to enter and exit a stock at a favorable price. Further, they keep an eye on volatility, higher volatility leads to greater profits or losses. Trading volume is another thing that they are considering. High volume means there are a lot of people interested in the particular stock. When the volume is increasing that is a sign that the price will drop or go up. After you choose a stock you want to trade you have to learn how to recognize the entry point. Some tools can help you. For example, some news services, but it has to be a real-time service because the stock prices can be influenced by news.

    Quotes are important too. Electronic communication networks, for example, display the best open bid and ask quotes from various market players and can automatically pair and execute orders. 

    Intraday candlestick charts are useful but provide a rough analysis of price action. 

    Your entry point has to be defined very accurately, you have to know the exact point when you are going to enter the position. For example “during the downtrend” isn’t precisely defined. You have to define more specifically and test it too and find if there is a chance for that to be generated each day or more often. 

    Also, the direction has to be tested. You would like the price to go in your expected direction. After you check and test everything you may have a potential entry for your strategy. 

    After finding an entry point you’ll need to judge how to exit, or sell, your trades.

    When to sell?

    There are many ways to exit a winning position. For example, trailing stop and profit target. The profit target is the most popular. The other well-known price target strategies are scalping, fading, daily pivots, momentum. The best time to exit is when the interest in the stock is decreasing. The volume will show that. Your profit target should provide you more profit on winning trade than you would have a loss in a bad trade. For example, if your stop-loss is 2% away from your entry price, your take profit level should be more than 2% away. You have to know your exit before you even enter the trade. The exit level has to be precise.

    Bottom line

    Day trading means to take advantage of small price changes. It can be a profitable game if you play it carefully. Hence it can be a risky game for new and inexperienced traders who don’t have a strong trading strategy. This type of trading is connected to the high volume of trades. So you have to respect some general principles if you want to become a day trader.

    You may have profitable trades by following the patterns. More about it learn from the “Two Fold Formula” book, we recommend. But we also recommend to test it by using our preferred trading platform firstly.

    You might find these interesting too:

     >>> Is Day Trading Like Gambling?

    >>> Swing Trading and Day Trading – The Difference

    >>> The pattern day trader rule

    >>> Day Trading the Best Methods – Day Trading for Beginners

    >>> Day trading stocks – How to find best trading platform

    >>> What is the best day trading strategy?

    >>> Money Required to Start the Day Trading

     

     

  • Stock Market Bottom And How To Recognize It

    Stock Market Bottom And How To Recognize It

    Stock Market Bottom And How To Recognize It
    Nobody can with certainty predict a stock market bottom. Still, it’s worth at least thinking about different entry points to let your money work for you.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    The questions for the past several weeks mainly were all about the stock market bottom. Did the stock market hit the bottom? Will the stock prices stop dropping? Have stocks reached support levels? When will prices stop falling? 

    Stock traders have so many questions these days and weeks. But do they really know where to look? 

    Maybe one of the most terrifying jobs related to investing is about the stock market bottom and how to recognize it. The idea to predict when a given stock will hit the bottom is old as much as investing and trading. The point is to recognize the point where the stock will no longer drop. The rule of thumb is: buy low, sell high. The problem arises when we have some unpredictable events in the market such as this one, coronavirus pandemic. That has an influence on the global economy, almost all economic and political events, and decisions. So, with a high level of certainty, we can say finding the stock market bottom can be a discouraging job.

    Well, this kind of question traders ask almost every day but are they looking in the right place to find the answer? For example, investors are looking at Dow Jones. Is it the right place? We are afraid that the value of DJIA isn’t able to alarm you when the stock market hits the bottom. Okay, it will tell you but after it happened. 

    So what to do? 

    How to recognize the stock market bottom? 

    If you want to find it, you’ll need some indicators. Indicators can tell you when is the stock market going to hit a bottom but also when it is going to recover. By using indicators you’ll not miss the beginning of the wave. When buying a stock you want to do so at the lowest possible price but you wouldn’t like to hold falling stocks. You would like them to start rising after you bought them, right? That’s why it is so important to recognize the stock market bottom. The point where the stock can find support.

    That knowledge can give you huge profits and prevent huge losses. So, how can we know with certainty that a stock has touched a low point? To be honest, no one can do that with 100% certainty and consistency, but traders and investors have some tools, fundamental and technical trends, and indicators. They arise in stocks when they are about to tap the bottom.

    The indicators of stock market bottoms

    Some indicators can help us determine when the stock market is going to form a bottom. What we really need to have are indicators of the health of a global economy and what the main participants in the market are doing with their money. But keep in mind, there is no such thing as a magic indicator to identify a stock market bottom. We have to look at several indicators to have an idea of the economy’s and stock market’s health.

    Second, we have to look at history because it will tell us that the average bear market persists about 17 months. Also, it corrects around 35% from the maximum. But keep in mind that you cannot find the two bear markets alike 100%. All we can do is to suppose that the next will be similar. 

    Further, we have to understand the valuation. For example, the S&P 500 has a P/E ratio and earnings. The P/E ratio will move up and down depending on the market period. It will be up when we have good earnings growth, all ratios including the P/E ratio will go up. But when the circumstances are changed, with rising pessimism the valuation is likely to go down. 

    For example, when the S&P Index was above 2.500 the P/E ratio was at 19.

    Also, the higher the VIX is, the chances for the stock market to hit the bottom are growing. These first two days in April this year, VIX traded between 54 and 57. If we take a look at historical data we can see that in 2008, the VIX was somewhere between 70 and 95. During the March this year, VIX traded over 75.

    Other indicators of the stock market bottom 

    The stock market fell over 25% in 3 weeks. This is the sharpest drop in history. The biggest decline occurred on March 12th, the biggest since the market crash in 1987. Many investors thought that a stock market hit a bottom. 

    If you want to recognize when the stock market bottom is, check out your emotions. Did you feel fear at that time? If yes, you were one of the millions with the same emotion. Fear was so obvious in the middle of March. To be honest, almost all were panicked.

    But we have to try to be reasonable. Just take a look at the charts and the technical levels for those days. Can you notice the major pivot? Do you notice a bottoming tail and a huge volume? 

    Okay! A major pivot, bottoming tail, and a huge volume on the same day and combined with a market 3-weeks decline of 25%, are indicators there was some at least short-term bottom.

    What to do when the stock market is near the bottom?

    The most intelligent investors started to buy those days. Small chunks, nothing big. Smart investors are doing such a thing to accumulate their full positions. The point is to buy 25% or 30% even 50% of the total position. That will keep your potential stress down and provide you an all in all a better average. But remember, don’t buy some small-cap, go for the brands. 

    Where is the market bottom now? 

    That is the most frequently asked question since coronavirus appeared. 

    Market experts like to say that it’s impossible to time the market. Well, it isn’t the truth. If we can see the market tops, why shouldn’t we see the market bottoms? Institutional investors know that. Follow what they are doing. Their actions could be the key bottoming signal. Follow-through has been noticed at almost every stock market bottom. This signal is extremely important because it can provide you profits when the early stages of a new market uptrend is confirmed.

    The quest for a stock market bottom

    This signal works quite simply. When there is a sustained stock market downturn, the first rising day from the index low is most important. That could be the beginning of a rally attempt. No matter which index you are using S&P 500, Dow Jones or Nasdaq. 

    According to some experts, the gain expressed in percentages isn’t important at this point. Also, don’t pay attention to the trading volume. What you have to look at is a down session and the moment when the index bounces after a great drop and closes close to session highs. Some experts deem that closing in the top half of the day’s trading range is adequate also.

    Further, find a bigger percentage gain in higher volume than the prior session several days in the rally attempt. This time period is making it possible for short covering to resolve and for a rally attempt to gain ground. The rally will be halted in place only if the index reaches a new low.

    How will the market react after the pandemic?

    It is good if the market supports the new buyings, but if it doesn’t, just be patient. Sometimes, breakouts are visible on the charts after a few weeks. This market crash caused by the coronavirus outbreak has a large supply of stocks making the new base. But a lot of them have yet to bottom.

    If an index suffers a decline in higher volume shortly after the follow-through day, the signal will fail in most cases. If close below the low of the follow-through day, it is almost the same. It is more the sign to start selling the stocks you bought recently.

    These signals don’t mean you should rashly jump into the market since they tend to fail after indexes have dropped clearly in a short time. That happened with the stock market correction in February. The more suitable is to buy a few stocks, maybe one or two, and test how they will work. If there is a real uptrend your stocks will rise.

    Every investor wants to know when trends are going to make a significant change. Will they reach tops or bottoms. The truth is no one knows that for sure. Only the big volume spikes, and staying stick to the chosen sector, will give you some clue if the stock has reached the lowest level from which it will not decline more. We pointed just one of the numerous scenarios. There are many others. 

  • Greeks In Trading Options As A Risk Measure

    Greeks In Trading Options As A Risk Measure

    Greeks In Trading Options As A Risk Measure
    Using Greeks in trading options can confuse a trader but can be extremely helpful. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Greeks in trading options can provide helpful information, but also they can add a bit of complexity that can confuse options traders. Greeks in trading are a measure of how some option’s price is sensitive to its basic parameters, volatility, or price of the underlying asset. This measure is important when you analyze the sensitivity of your options’ portfolio or single option. So many traders and investors think this is a vital measure for decision making in options trading.

    The key Greeks are Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta but some will include Rho too. Also, you’ll find some other Greeks derived from these four or five.

    Greeks in trading options can indeed hide the most important part, the difference between the stock price and strike price and the value decrease with reducing time to expiration on the option. For these reasons some options traders never examine the Greeks at all when making trades. But they are important and we will show you why.

    The importance of Greeks in trading options

    It isn’t easy to have an accurate prediction of what is going to happen to the price of the option especially when the market is moving. Even more difficult can be to predict the options positions that efficiently couple multiple individual positions. That is the case with options spreads, for example. 

    The problem is that most options trading strategies require the spreads, anything that can help you to predict the option position is important and you have to know them better. These measures can be very useful when you have to predict the future of the option price since they measure the sensitivity of a price related to the price of the underlying assets, interest rates, volatility, and time decay. By having all this information you can be in a much better position because you will know when and which trades to make. 

    How is that possible?

    The Greeks in trading options will provide you a hint of how the price of your options will run related to how the price of the underlying asset changes. Also, the Greeks will help you forecast how much time value an option is losing daily. Moreover, by using Greeks in trading options you will have a valuable tool for risk management. In other words, you can use these measures to understand the risk for each position and where the risk will appear. Greeks will help you to recognize which risk factors you have to remove from your position and your positions’ portfolio. Also, they can show you how much hedging you need for that. 

    Keep in mind, you can use Greeks as an indicator of how the price will go related to different factors but they are theoretical. To make this more clear, Greeks are actually values based on mathematical rules and can be accurate only if they are calculated according to the exact mathematical model.

    How to calculate Greeks?

    It is possible to do yourselves but, we have to warn you, the process is complex and you’ll need a lot of time for that. Usually, traders use some software to do that for them and get accurate calculations. The serious online broker will automatically present values for the Greeks in the options they display. That makes the use of Greeks in trading options a lot easier.

    Anyway, we will show you how to calculate the four most popular Greeks.

    Calculate Greek Delta

    Delta, the sign is Δ, can measure the sensitivity of price changes related to the moves in the price of the underlying assets. So, for example, when the price of the underlying asset grows by some amount in money, the price of the option will change by Δ amount. Here is the formula to calculate that Δ amount

    Δ = ∂V/∂S

    ∂  represents the first derivative
    V  represents the option’s price which is the theoretical value
    S –represents the price of the underlying asset

     Why did we take the first derivative of the option and price of the underlying asset? Because the first derivative is a measure of the rate change of the variable over a determined period.

    The delta is visible as a decimal figure from -1 to 1. For example, call options will have a delta from 0 to 1, but puts will have a delta from -1 to 0. We have to point one important thing here, to give you a better perception of how to understand Delta numbers. When you see the option’s delta is close to 1 or -1, you will know the options are deep-in-the-money.

    Also, you can calculate delta for your options’ portfolios. It is the weighted average of all deltas of options added to the portfolio. As one of the Greeks, delta can be a hedge ratio, also. When you know the amount of delta, you can hedge your position if you buy or short the number of underlying assets multiplied by delta. It’s quite simple, don’t you think? 

    Gamma as one of the Greeks in trading options

    Gamma or Γ is a measure of the rate of change of its delta per 1-point move in the price of the underlying stock.

    The formula to calculate is expressed as:

     Γ = ∂Δ/∂S = ∂2V/∂2S

    The gamma can be expressed as a percentage also. And as same as delta, gamma is changing even with very small moves of the underlying asset price. Gamma is at its peak when the asset price is near to strike price of the option. It drops when the options go deeper out of or into the money. When the option has gamma value close to 0 that means it means the option is very deep out of or into the money. 

    Long options will have positive gamma values. When the options strike price is equal to the price of the underlying stock gamma will have the maximum value.

    One of the Greeks in trading options is Vega

    Vega or ν is also an option Greek. It measures the influence of changes in the underlying volatility on the option price. In other words, it measures the sensitivity of the option price in comparison to the volatility of the underlying stock. Vega will show the change in the price of the option for each change in underlying volatility, for every 1% of it.

    Here is the calculation:

    ν = ∂V / ∂σ

    ∂  represents the first derivative
    V  represents the option’s price  which is the theoretical value
    σ  represents the volatility of the underlying asset

    The vega is shown as a money amount.

    Options will be more costly when volatility is higher. So, when volatility rises, the price of the option will rise too. Consequently, when volatility decreases, the price of the option will drop also. Hence, when you want to calculate the new option price caused by volatility changes, you have to add the vega when volatility goes up. This means, to subtract it when the volatility decreases.

    Theta

    Theta symbol is θ. It is a measure of the sensitivity of the option price relative to the option’s time decay. If the date of expiry is closer by one day, the option’s price will change for the theta value. The theta is related to the option’s time to maturity.

    The formula is:

    θ = ∂V / ∂τ

    ∂ represents the first derivative
    V is the option’s price in sense of theoretical value
    τ represents the option’s time to maturity

    Generally speaking, the theta is expressed as a negative figure and it is negative for the options. Well, for some European options it can be positive. This is possible because theta describes the most negative value when the asset is at-the-money and shows the value by which the option’s price will decrease every day.

    Long-term options will have theta of near 0 because they do not lose value daily. Hence, theta is higher for short-term options, particularly at-the-money options. The reason is that short-term options have more premiums and a chance to lose every day. Theta will dramatically increase when the option is near to the date of expiry and time decay is greatest during those periods.

    Rho

    Rho or ρ. It measures the sensitivity of the option price related to interest rates. When a benchmark interest rate rises by 1%, the option price will switch by the rho value. The rho isn’t too important as other  Greeks are. Interest rates don’t have such a big influence on option prices and they are less sensitive to interest rate changes.

    Nevertheless, here is the formula to calculate:

    ρ = ∂V / ∂r

    ∂ is the first derivative
    V is the option’s price meaning the theoretical value
    r is the interest rate

    The call options will have a positive rho, but the rho for put options will be negative.

    Why using Greeks in trading options?

    In real trading, the Greeks will all change and develop their changes over the other variables. Every single change in the underlying asset’s price, interest rates, the expiry date may influence all variables simultaneously. So, it’s a smarter decision to use some software to calculate the final result.

    But it is very important to know why and how the Greeks can help and provide you a measure of position’s risk and reward. When the Greeks in trading options become familiar to you, apply them to your trading strategies. It is necessary to use all types of risk-exposure measures. This may bring your options trading to a higher level.

    Meanwhile, learn more about pattern trading from the “Two Fold Formula” book and check it with the our preferred trading platform.

  • Volatility Trading – How To Trade Volatility Profitably?

    Volatility Trading – How To Trade Volatility Profitably?

    (Updated November 2021)

    Volatility Trading - How To Trade Volatility Profitably?
    Volatility traders do not pay attention to which direction stock prices move, they are interested in the level of volatility itself.

    Volatility trading describes trading the volatility of the price of an underlying asset. Make a note of the difference, it isn’t trading of the price itself. Or in other words, volatility trading indicates trading the assumed future volatility of the index. Hence, it is buying and selling the anticipated future volatility of the asset. Every single asset in which price changes, actually manifests price volatility. So, traders that trade volatility looks at how much change, in any direction, will happen. They don’t pay attention to the price, they don’t want to predict the price itself. Such traders just think about how much the price of some asset will move in the future, in the stock price, for example. No matter if it will go up or down. And it isn’t random trading. They have developed strategies which we’ll present to you.

    But firstly, we would like to make clear what volatility trading is.

    For example, options are a favorite tool for volatility trading. Why is that? Well, many factors can affect the value of the option but a crucial for its value is the expected future volatility of the underlying asset. Hence, options with higher expected volatility are more valuable than options on instruments with low expected volatility in the future.
    Therefore, options represent an easy way to get exposure to the volatility of the underlying instruments. Basically, that expected future volatility of the underlying instrument of an option is a very important part when traders’ valuing the option.

    Factors important to determine the volatility

    We can recognize seven factors that determine the price of an option and they are also called variables. While all of them are variable only one is an estimate and represents the most important part. The known factors are the current price of an underlying asset, strike price, also the known part is calls and puts, meaning what is the type of an option. Further, we always know what is the risk-free interest rate, and the dividends on the underlying assets. But what we don’t know is volatility. The volatility is the most important variable to determine the price of an option. So we need to know what indicates volatility. 

    First of all, it is one of the “Greeks” – Vega. 

    It is the measure of an option’s price sensitivity to shifts in the volatility of the underlying instrument. Vega outlines the value that an option’s price changes as a response to a 1% move in the expected volatility of the underlying asset. This “greek” will show the change of an option for every 1% of the change in volatility. 

    Main points related to volatility trading

    Traders should pay attention to two main points related to volatility.

    One is relative volatility. It refers to the current volatility of the stock in comparison to its volatility over a given period. For example, ABC stock options that expire in one-month historically showed expected volatility of 15%, but current volatility is 25%. Let’s compare it with XYZ stock options that had expected volatility of 25% but now grown to 30%. If we want to estimate absolute volatility it is obvious that XYZ stock has a greater. But the stock ABC gained a greater change in relative volatility. 

    The volatility of the overall market is important too. The most used is VIX ( the CBOE Volatility Index) that measures the volatility of the S&P 500. VIX is also known as the investors’  fear gauge. When the S&P 500 experiences a sharp decline, the VIX increases sharply. Every time when the S&P 500 is rising gradually, the VIX will be pacified. 

    Strategies for volatility trading

    Straddle strategy

    As we said, traders who trade volatility are not interested in the direction of the price changes. They make money on high volatility, no matter whether the price goes up or down. 

    One of the most popular strategies for volatility trading is the Straddle strategy with pending orders. This strategy provides a profit when the price goes considerably in one direction, no matter if it is up or down. The best time to use this strategy is when the traders expect an extreme increase in volatility.  

    We said it has to be used with pending orders. The pending orders are orders that were not yet executed, hence not yet becoming a trade. They’ll become market orders when certain pre-specified conditions are met.
    If you want to use this strategy, you’ll need to identify a market in consolidation before some significant market release. Further, set a buy stop pending order above the upper consolidation resistance. A sell stop pending order you should set below the lower consolidation support.  

    In Forex trading

    For example, you are trading Forex and have a currency pair that entered a consolidation stage with low volatility. Just put buy stop orders a few pips above the upper resistance,  so a sell stop order should be a few pips below the lower support. No matter in which direction the price will change, it will trigger one of these orders and when the volatility continues, the trade will end up in a profit.

    The real trigger for pending orders is volatility. Volatility occurs a bit before important reports in the market and traders usually schedule this kind of trades before them.
    In a straddle strategy, the traders write or sell a call and put at the same strike price wanting to receive the premiums on both positions. The reason behind this strategy is that the traders await expected volatility to decrease significantly by option expiry. That allows them to hold most of the premiums received on short put and short call positions.

    Ratio Writing

    Ratio writing is simply writing more options than are bought. Use a 2:1 ratio, just two options, sold or written for every option bought. The aim is to profit on a large fall in expected volatility before the date of expiry.

    Iron Condors in volatility trading

    In this strategy, the traders combine a bear call spread with a bull put spread of the same expiration. They hope to profit on a reversal in volatility. The result would be the stock trading in a tight range during the life of the options.
    The iron condor strategy has a low payoff, but the potential loss also has a limitation.

    Go long

    During the high volatility, traders who are bearish on the stock can buy puts on it. Keep in mind the saying “the trend is your friend.”
    “Go long” strategy or buy puts is expensive. It requires, from traders who want to lower the costs of long put positions, to buy more put out-of-the-money or, the other way is to add a short put position at a cheaper price to meet the cost of the long put position. You can find this strategy under the name a bear put spread.

    Go Short

    The other name for this strategy is “write calls”. The traders who are bearish on the stock but think the level of expected volatility for options could decrease may write naked calls to pocket a premium.
    Writing or shorting a naked call is a very risky strategy, keep that in mind. There can be an unlimited risk if the underlying stock boosts in price before the expiry date of the naked call position. In such a case, you can end up with several hundred percent of the loss. To reduce this risk, just combine the short call position with a long call position at a higher price. This strategy you can find under the name “a bear call spread.”

    Use VIX to predict the volatility 

    Yes, you can recognize market turns by using VIX. To be more specific,  you’ll recognize the bottoms. Well, the stock market regularly rises gradually and the VIX will decrease in the same manner. So very low levels can occur. The investors don’t feel they need any protection. If these periods last longer, the VIX as a sell signal can be useless. 

    But, the nature of the S&P 500 is long-biased. If index declines investors start to buy protection (simple put options) fast. That pushes up the VIX. Can you see how great the “fear barometer” VIX is? When you notice a high VIX you can be sure the investors and traders are overreacting because the market drops. The VIX during times of market drops will behave as the spike. That is a good signal to discover when selling is overdone and the market is moving higher due to bounce or even bottom for a longer-term.

    This strategy is suitable when the VIX ‘sign’ appears during a bullish trend in the S&P 500.

    Bottom line

    Volatility trading is an excellent way to get profitable trades even if you are wrong about the direction of the price. Volatility is the main interest of volatility traders. They are seeking big changes in any direction. Use the VIX index as a measurement for volatility in the stock market. A rising VIX index indicates fears in the market. But it is a good time to buy stocks. The most popular trading strategy to trade volatility is the Straddle strategy.
    Also, traders use the Short Straddle strategy when they expect a lack of volatility, for example, the prices continuing with steady change.
    No matter which of these strategies you want to use, just keep in mind that you can profit no matter what is the direction of the price movement.

  • Price Action Strategies For Profitable Trading

    Price Action Strategies For Profitable Trading

    Price Action Strategies
    Experienced traders use price action strategies in trading to make more profitable trades. Price action strategies are one of the most used in current financial markets.

    Price action strategies in trading are present for quite some time. They are here for good reason. That’s why these strategies are frequently used in the financial market. Price action strategies are used by both long-term and short-term traders. The point is that analyzing the price of a security is maybe the simplest but at the same time the most powerful approach to getting an edge over the market. And that is crucial for any trader. Having an edge means that you’ll not be found out by the market. 

    Okay, you might think you are a great trader because you had several winnings. Do you really think that having luck is the most important part of trading?

    Anyone can do the same if the lucky is a matter of importance.

    Relying on luck is the danger because the wheel of fortune is turning around. And eventually, your winning trades will become great losses. All the profits you made during your winning streak will vanish like a soap bubble. That’s because you don’t have an edge. Actually, in this case, your edge is with the market which is too risky because at some point that edge will play out in favor of the market securing that trader loss. 

    If you don’t have an edge and the edge is in the favor of the market, it is a matter of time until the edge starts to play out and you’ll become a loser. 

    Think about this as a casino, for example. All tools and machines in the casino have odds adjusted in favor of the casino. In any case, the casino is the winner. Yes, from time to time someone will make a lot of money, but there are many losing players, more than winning. So, the casino will be the winner in any case.

    That is the casino’s edge. The exact comes with your trading if you are only considering your next trade and never think about trading inside the market’s overall edge.

    Stay focused on the price action

    Price action is a trading method that enables a trader to understand the market and make trading decisions based on current and real price actions. So, in price action strategies you are not relying only on technical indicators. As you can see, the action price strategies are dependent on technical analysis. Some traders use price action strategies to generate a profit in a short time. 

    If you want to be a price action trader, you must be focused on price action. This sounds like nonsense, you may think. But if you want to evaluate deeper, you will find the majority of traders think the price action strategies are the same as pattern trading. And that is a great mistake. 

    While pattern trading requires just staring at the last candles of the chart and making a trade based on them, for price action trading you’ll need more. Yes, in pattern trading the last one or two candles can be an excellent entry signal, in price action strategies they are just candles among many many other candles on the chart.

    Every successful price action trader knows how to read a price action chart as a whole and knows how to force them to tell the entire price action story. Price action traders have to interpret the real order flow, support and resistance, traders’ behavior and trends through the live price action.

    What is price action trading?

    Price action trading is trading in which traders base their decisions on the price movements of an asset which can be stock, forex, bonds, etc. There is no need to use other indicators, your trade is based on price action solely. Of course, you can use other methods but it will have a very small impact on your decisions.

    The price action traders believe that the only valid source of data flows from the price itself. For example, when the stock prices go up, the price action traders know that investors or other traders are buying. Based on the aggressiveness of that buying, price action traders estimate will the prices continue to rise. These traders don’t care why something occurs. Their all concern is to find the best possible entry point with lower risks but with greater profits. For that to know, they are using real-time data, for example, volume, bids, offers, magnitude and similar. Also, historical charts are very important.

    In trading – what is that?

    First of all, price action trading is the method where you make all your decisions from the so-called “naked” price chart. That means there are no other indicators. All we have is price action. That’s a lot of data because all markets generate data about the price changes over different periods. And that data is displayed on the price chart. What can you read there? For example, everything about the beliefs and behavior of other traders and investors, no matter if they are humans or computers. Data is for a specific time frame and all opinions, beliefs, all financial data, news that affects price change, and behavior are visible on the chart as price action. 

    The most important part, with knowing the price movements, you’ll be able to develop a really profitable trading system. All signals from the price action chart have a general name – price action trading strategies. These strategies can give you a chance to predict future movements with a high level of accuracy so you can make a profitable strategy.

    Price action trading strategies can be used on a broad variety of securities including stocks, bonds, derivatives, forex, commodities, etc.

    Price action strategies

    Trendline strategy

    One of them is the trendline strategy, very simple to use. The main point here is to know how to draw trendlines. This is an important part because only if you do it properly you’ll be able to predict where the price will bounce off the trendlines. Well, you’ll take a trade based on it so be consistent in how you draw trendlines. 

    Breakout strategy

    The other price action strategy is a breakout. For example, a stock price is moving with a specific tendency. When it breaks the tendency, it is a signal for a new trading opportunity. To make this clearer, suppose a stock traded between $9 and $6 for the last two weeks. Suddenly, it moves above $9. So, the stock price changed the tendency. That is the signal for traders that the sideway moves are probably finished and the stock price is possible to go up to $10 or more.
    Of course, you might be faced with a false breakout, but it is also an opportunity to trade in the opposite direction of the breakout.

    Bars formation

    Another price action strategies examine the price bars formation on a specific model of the chart. For example, candlestick charts. If traders use candlestick strategies, for example, the engulfing candle trend strategy. It is important to wait until the up candle engulfs a down candle during an uptrend. That should be your entry point, the moment when an up candle goes above the opening price of the down candle.

    You can use price support and price resistance zones. That could give good trading chances. Support and resistance zones occur where the price has tended to reverse in the past and these points may be relevant in the future.

    Bottom line

    Price action strategies aren’t suitable for long term investments. They are aimed at short-term traders. So many traders don’t think that the markets never operate on consistent patterns. They believe the markets work randomly. The consequence is that they don’t think it isn’t possible to have a strategy that will work in any case. If you combine technical analysis with historical price data, price action strategies will allow you to make profitable trades. 

    These strategies are very popular today due to its advantages. They provide flexible trades, access to many asset classes, use of any software, apps or trading websites. Moreover, traders have a chance to backtest any strategy on historical data. Also, maybe the most important part of price action strategies is that the traders have an opportunity to choose their actions on their own. So, that creative approach to trading is important for many of them. 

    A lot of proponents on price action trading insist on high success rates. Trading has the potential for making great profits. Traders-Paradise suggests testing and acting after that. Just to be ready to meet your best possible profit chances.

  • Ratios Important To Make Profit In Stocks

    Ratios Important To Make Profit In Stocks

    Ratios Important To Make Profit In Stocks
    If you want to buy stocks, the wrong way is to follow your intuition and expect everything will work spontaneously. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Ratios important to make a profit in stocks is something we will explain to you why that is and how to calculate and examine them. The truth is, you have to favor investing and trading strategies to eliminate emotions. These ratios will give you insight into a company’s fundamentals and let you evaluate a company’s health.
    Stock investing demands a rigorous analysis of financial data if you want to find out the company’s real worth. Investors commonly estimate profit, losses, check business accounts, cash flow, balance sheets. You might think it is too much work and give up or, what is really dangerous, you might buy a stock without any estimation, like you are buying a lottery ticket. Yes, sometimes evaluating the right stock can be hard and eat your time. The question is why should you do that? Instead, you can find a lot of these data free on the internet.

    Understand ratios before buying

    Much more before you buy stocks, it is very valuable to know how to calculate, understand, and read ratios when you see them. It doesn’t matter if you get them from your broker or you find them on the internet. Ratios are important to make a profit in stocks because they will tell you everything about the company you want to invest in. If you don’t estimate the ratios, the possibility of making the wrong investment decision will increase. Just ask yourself, do you really want to invest in a company with debt, that hasn’t enough cash to maintain it or support the operations, and moreover, has low profitability? To be honest, estimating ratios or calculating them isn’t a foolproof method but it is a way for fast checking of the company’s health.

    What ratios are important to make a profit in stocks?

    The most common categories are related to earnings and the balance sheet since they are crucial indicators of a company’s health. The crucial ratios show the company’s income and its ability to persist solvent. But you can use a lot more ratios important to make a profit in stocks and we would like to show you how to put them to work to help you make a proper investment decision.

    So, let’s start!

    P/E Ratios Important To Make Profit In Stocks

    It is the most usually mentioned ratio. The price-to-earnings ratio is sometimes called P/E or just pE ratio. This ratio measures the share price correlated with the earnings per share. The P/E ratio is helpful when you want to compare the stock of one company with the stock of some other from the same industry. By using it you’ll be able to unveil if some stock is underpriced, overpriced, or in harmony with other companies in the same industry. This ratio is a very popular metric and the calculation is quite simple. All you have to do is to divide the value per share by earnings per share for one company. Calculate this ratio for the last four quarters (of course you can do this for several years) and if all of them were equal remember, the lower the P/E ratio is better.

    Use forward earnings

    Also, use forward earnings, which is the average of Wall Street’s projections for the current fiscal year. According to Benjamin Graham, it is proposed the stocks should trade for a P/E multiple equal to 8.5 times earnings plus doubling the growth rate of earnings. If you want to estimate some cheap stock, well, the P/E ratio maybe isn’t an adequate metric.

    For example, the S&P 500 trades for 19,47 times during the past four quarters of earnings reports. The average P/E for the last 80 years is 15.86, which means the market is a little pricey. This is just an example and figures can be inaccurate at this moment.
    So, if the P/E ratio is lower than average, it’s a sign that you’ve found a potential bargain. Well, you don’t have all the relevant data to decide whether to buy a stock or not. A lot depends on growth, so the next ratio to watch is the PEG ratio.

    PEG ratio

    The PEG ratio is a pick of growth investors. To calculate it just divide the P/E by the company’s growth rate earnings expected in the next five years (this is the most accurate). Again, Graham, of course, and efforts to gauge the size of a discount or premium you will pay for growth. If the PEG ratio is less than 1 (which is low PEG), it implies the stock can be undervalued. Contrary, if the PEG ratio is higher than 1 or more, it is an indicator that the stock is overvalued. But the PEG ratio isn’t ideal, it has some downsides. By using the PEG ratio you are not able to predict future growth rates.

    Use Price-to-Sales Ratios important to make a profit in stocks

    P/S ratio is similar to the P/E ratio and to calculate it just divide the market capitalization by the company’s total sales for the last 12 months. So, put aside the earnings. This ratio will tell you how much you will pay for every single dollar in yearly sales. To make clear why we have to put aside the earnings. Well, there are periods when the company doesn’t have earnings so the total sales can tell better about the company’s value than the P/E ratio can. Maybe even more, because no one can manipulate the sales, earnings are something that can be manipulated. If the P/S ratio is low in comparison to other companies, that means a company could be a winning investment.

    But be careful, sometimes a low P/S ratio can be spoiled if the company has a huge debt and permanent lack of profitability.

    Price-To-Book or P/B

    Use this ratio to compare the stock price to the company’s book value. A P/B is expressed as a difference between assets and liabilities, meaning assets minus liabilities. If P/B is low it may indicate a good buying opportunity. When the book value per share is higher than the stock price, it is an indicator that the stock is undervalued. The idea behind is to understand how much money you’ll have in case you sell all of it.

    This is price multiple metrics. The P/B is used when comparing current multiples to historical averages. This ratio is useful for comparing the companies that provide some kind of services, for example, meaning they don’t have a real property. For instance, the equipment company has little book value but trade at very high P/B value multiples, sometimes 25 times over book value.

    Price/Cash Flow or shorter P/CF ratio

    It measures the value of a stock’s price related to its operating cash flow per share. It is particularly helpful for evaluating stocks that have positive cash flow but have non-cash charges and are not profitable.

    The formula is

    P/CF = share price / operating cash flow per share

    You have to count the operating cash flow for the previous 12 months. Further, have a focus on cash generated by the company, forget depreciation from earnings, or amortization. This measure is better than the P/E ratio to compare the valuations of companies from different countries. You know that different countries have different depreciation charges and that may influence earnings. Lower P/CF is better, but remember, almost all companies have extra cash flow, not all is coming from the operations. 

    For example, free cash flow. It is the amount that the company owns after paying debts, dividends, buying back stock. If cash flow is negative it shouldn’t be a red alarm until it becomes a constant problem. If that is the case, the company can easily meet the solvency problem.

    Why ratios are important to make profit in stocks?

    Ratios important to make a profit in stocks are also dividend yield, dividend payout ratio, return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), profit margin, a current ratio, etc.

    There are so many tools, websites, reports that are useful. You have to analyze a stock before you buy it. Also, you have to know the time frame of your investment. We always say stock trading is different, it isn’t the same as investing. Researching stock will take some time, you can’t finish it in a few minutes. But it is completely irresponsible to buy any stock without researching and evaluating by using ratios mentioned above. 

    If you are a trader maybe this can help you. Test it with our preferred trading platform virtual trading system. In investing, permanent study and examination are crucial.