Tag: stocks

All stocks related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

Stock Market Correction – The Storm Is Coming

A lot of mergers and acquisitions, drop trade investment and lack of business trust indicate a coming stock market correction Bear in mind that markets will not disappear, so you can get back

By Guy Avtalyon

The dark sign of an upcoming stock market correction might be when the companies are buying back their stocks and use them for buying other companies. In this example, the stocks are used as currencies. We can see that so many companies are doing exactly that. Further, we are witnesses of a lot of mergers and acquisitions. The companies are uniting to survive something. But what? What they are expecting?

Is the logical answer that they are expecting stock dumping and the stock market correction?

Some analysts say YES.

The first sign of possible stock market correction they see in companies buying other companies, in mergers with rivals and financed by shares exchange is the signal that the market is close to the end of its bullish period. The opposite opinion befalls when the companies invest in new activities, new operations, development. That would be a good signal for the stock market. But when the companies are using their own shares to buy growth it only can be a sign of the lost confidence.

Yes, the economy runs in cycles. The sunny days will always follow after rainy days. But we have to be worried when the economy’s condition pattern indicates the coming storm just as we are in a hurry when the real storm is coming.

How to manage the stock market correction?

A stock market correction is an alarming condition but quite normal. Some might be surprised, but it is a sign that the market is healthy. Well, in most cases.

How could we know that the stock market correction is coming? When the stock prices are dropping 10% or higher from their most current peak but not more than 20%. In such a case, we would have a bear market.

Firstly, don’t try to “time the market.” Avoid swing trading even though trading the ups and downs may give you some profit but for a short while. Many investors are trying to avoid losses by putting money in some other investments where they think there is a better possibility of profiting.

Most people lose money by trying to move their money around to participate in the ups and avoid the downs. This is a documented behavior studied by academics around the world. The field of study is called behavioral finance. That is a behavioral bias.

Our two cents

When you build your investment portfolio it should be based on knowledge and your education, not on prejudices. It is normal to expect that for every quarter of the year, you will have some negative returns. Tn order to lessen those negative returns or to control them you have to have a diversified portfolio. That means you need to combine your investments. Pick a mix of assets that have more potential for upsides and fewer chances for high returns because that means less risk.

During the market correction, savvy investors have more discipline, less fear, and stay with their investing playbook. Don’t trade at those times because you may catch larger losses. Behind these words lies the stats, you can easily check it.

Follow the old Wall Street pattern: Never catch a falling knife.

Be mentally prepared

A market crash may happen. When? It doesn’t matter. You have to be mentally prepared for that because the markets are unpredictable and it had happened before. Yes, we all like to be rich even on the paper and it’s really hard to chew a big bite. And the stock market correction is just that – a big bite. Some investors might feel fears, be frightened, and start selling their stocks at the worst time.

If you are a long-term investor type, you must have trust that the stock market will adjust eventually.

Corrections can last from several days to months or longer but the last mentioned are rare. Remember, a correction may damage your investment for short, but it is a great opportunity for adjusting overvalued stocks. So, buying opportunities are undoubted. So, just keep adding stocks to your investment portfolio while others are selling in a panic.

Can we predict a stock market correction

Nope. No one can predict a stock market correction. They aren’t predictable. Moreover, they can be generated by different matters. For example, we know the Great Recession has erupted on the housing bubble. But we know that after everything was finished. But predicting the main cause of the next correction just isn’t possible.

What we know for sure comes from research. According to one conducted on the example of the Dow Jones, the average correction lasted about 72 trading days or three and a half calendar months. And the correction is when the overall stock prices drop more than 10% and if the decline of more than 20% it is a so-called market crash. That’s all.

For whom the market correction matters?

Stock market correction matters for short-term traders. If you stay focused on the long term you will survive anyway. When correction occurs those who’ve adjusted their trading as the short term or those who have leveraged their account with the use of margin, should be worried.

Traders that used margin had bigger losses during the market downturn. Also, active traders had increasing costs united with their losses during the correction. Holding long-term investment was the best way to survive the stock market correction. At least such investors had a peaceful life.

Don’t be afraid of a stock market correction. It is usually a great time to buy high-quality companies at a lower price. So, you can add stocks to your portfolio for long-term investments, even the one that previously appeared to be a bit too pricey. Also, a market correction is a good time to examine again what you hold. Sell your position only if you see that your investment, but each in your portfolio, couldn’t meet the cause of keeping it.

A stock market correction doesn’t need to be terrifying. If you don’t want to taste it, it is best to stay away from investing in the stock market. Instead, stick with safe investments.

Keep your balance.

27th December 2019
Levi Strauss On The Market Again

Levi Strauss & Co. trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LEVI.
This famous brand promises to be a good investment

By Guy Avtalyon

Levi Strauss is riding again.
We are sure you have several of Levi’s products. When say Levi’s you mean eternity. Levi’s jeans is always IN. This denim cloth producer went public in March this year. The jeans on the trading floor. Sounds good even if it didn’t change the dress-code there. Actually, that decision was the second appearance of Levi’s on the stock market.

Firstly, the company was listed in the 1970s. But 15 years later, the company was taken private. Descendants of Strauss, well-known the Haas family bought it out. In March this year, that decision was changed and Levi’s is listed again on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LEVI. Levi’s started trading publicly for the second time in its 165-year history.

At that time, the shares were priced at $17 and grew 32% in the first trading day. On the closing bell, the price was $22.41 and the valuation was over $8.5 billion.

The LEVI price history

The LEVI price history isn’t long but we can see that it had a few good trading weeks after went public. The price dropped in August and was traded at about $16. In October, the price increased to almost $20 but dropped again at $17 and stabilized in that area.

On November 21 the LEVY was traded at $16.57 which was an increase of 0,20% from the previous day.

The experts’ forecast for Levi Strauss & Co.’s median target at $23.50, with the highest price at $28.00 and the lowest at $18.00. That would be a 41.82% rise from the current price of $16.57. Their estimation shows a buy signal for Levi Strauss & Co. stock.

The forward P/E ratio is 15.49 and P/E growth is 3.79, the dividend yield is 3.62%.

Levi Strauss & Co. posted its quarterly earnings report on October 8th. The company reported $0.31EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimates of $0.27. Levi Strauss & Co. earned $1.45 million during the quarter. The company had a return on equity of 37.44% and a net margin of 6.85%. The revenue was up 4.3% related to the same quarter in the previous year. Levi Strauss & Co. issued its revenue guidance of $5.882-5.909 billion.

Selling of Levi Strauss & Co. stock

The company’s main shareholder Walter J. Haas sold 73,845 shares on Wednesday, November 20th at an average price of $16.53, for $1,220,657.85.
Previously, on November 13th, Walter J. Haas sold 37,290 shares of the company at an average price of $16.96, for $632,438.40.
Two days earlier, on November 11th, Walter J. Haas sold 22,321 shares of stock at an average price of $17.06, for $380,796.26.
On November 8th, Walter J. Haas sold 50,749 shares at an average price of $17.10, for $867,807.90.

Hedge funds have new holding positions in the Levi’s

Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft FI got a new position in Levi Strauss & Co. at approximately $253,000.
Acadian Asset Management LLC took a new position at around $174,000.
Parallel Advisors LLC took a new position at approximately $96,000.
Aperio Group LLC took a new position at around $62,000.
NumerixS Investment Technologies Inc got a new position at about $58,000.
Institutional investors hold 9.21% of the Levi Strauss & Co. stock.

Experts’ ratings on LEVI

Bank of America boosted its price target on LEVI from $20.00 to $22.00 and marked the stock as a “buy” in October.
Guggenheim repeated a “buy” rating in September.
ValuEngine upgraded Levi Strauss & Co. from a “sell” rating to a “hold” in October.
Levi Strauss & Co. currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a price target of $24.43.

About Levi Strauss

The company is founded by Levi Strauss, an immigrant from Bavaria who came to San Francisco in 1850 during the Gold Rush. He brought dry goods for selling to the miners. he recognized the miners’ need for durable pants and hired a tailor to sew clothes out of tent canvas. Denim came later.
A partnership of three Strauss brothers was built in 1853.
After Strauss died the leadership of the company passed to the Haas family. By the 1960s, Levi’s jeans became popular globally. In 1971, when the company went public it was operating in 50 countries.

Levi Strauss & Co designs, and markets jeans, casual dress, pants, skirts, jackets, footwear, and accessories for women, men, and children under the brands: Levi’s, Dockers, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co, and Denizen. The company also authorizes Levi’s and Dockers’ trademarks for many product categories, like footwear, belts, wallets and bags, outerwear, sweaters, dress shirts, kids wear, sleepwear, and hosiery.

Levi’s is a famous brand but the stock needs a price accumulation before it keeps the advance. Anyway, this is the stock to be watched. Its trends in Europe are strong, rising at 20% a year for the past two years and 14% in 2019. Levi proceeds to diversify its distribution in Europe and it is now 50% direct-to-consumer sales. But the U.S. sales are down and now it represents 30% of Levi’s overall sales.

22nd November 2019
Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will merge with PSA Groupe, owner of Peugeot automobiles

Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Groupe PSA (Peugeot is the largest PSA brand), have agreed to continue a merger. That would form the fourth-largest carmaker in the world. Their boards are working together on a new relationship. The Wall Street Journal reported the companies are moving forward with a merger. Both companies confirmed this news.

The merger will give shareholders of each group equal ownership in the new entity.

On Thursday morning both companies stated that their boards have a mandate to finalize the negotiations in the next few weeks, which means FCA will not tie-up with Renault as was thought this summer.

The merger would create a company with revenues of €170bn, with an operating profit of over €11bn and vehicle sales of 8.7m. That would lead them ahead of General Motors and Hyundai-Kia in sales. The new potential entity would have a market value of between €45-50bn.

The model of the merger is a 50-50 all-stock.

PSA is listed on the Euronext Paris stock exchange.

Since 2014, FCA is officially listed on the NYSE.

After the Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

When the two companies do a merger, PSA chief executive Carlos Tavares is assumed to lead that new group while John Elkann, Fiat Chrysler’s chairman will hold the same position at the new entity.
Despite this speed, a final agreement of merger needs time and regulatory scrutiny.

According to Reuters, a merger between FCA and PSA could build a “$50-billion giant better placed to tackle a host of costly technological and regulatory challenges facing the global auto industry.” Details were not published, but some aspects have known.

For example, the Journal published that the new company would be “legally domiciled in the Netherlands,” with “operational headquarters in the U.S., France, and Italy.”
Further details and any influence on employment are not yet transparent. The known fact is that FCA has plans to add nearly 5,000 jobs to the Detroit factory to build SUVs. So, the obvious conclusion is that a merger would eventually help FCA in Detroit.

It isn’t a secret that the Peugeot Group has plans to re-enter the U.S. market. The merger with FCA would provide it through the Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram dealer network.
To adjust the value of the two companies, the PSA shareholders should get about a €3bn dividend from the sale of the 46% stake in parts carmaker Faurecia.
FCA shareholders will receive a €5.5bn ($6.12 billion) cash payout and incomes from the sale of its robot-making Comau unit, estimated at between €200m to €300m.

New headquarters

The new group will be based in the Netherlands, a neutral location, where FCA is domiciled and listed in Paris, Milan and New York. The Financial Times reported the FCA will “continue to maintain a significant presence in the current operating head-office locations in France, Italy and the US.”

Around €3.7bn in predicted annual run-rate synergies are targeted, 80% during the first 4 years. The total one-time cost of achieving the synergies is estimated at €2.8bn, the two companies revealed in the statement.

Bottom line

Carmakers are facing large investments in electric cars. That is the reason behind the merge. Costs. This merger would create one of the biggest carmakers groups in the world with well-known brands Citroen, Jeep, Opel, Alfa Romeo, Peugeot, and Vauxhall. This has the potential to be a true rival to Volkswagen, Toyota and the Renault-Nissan Alliance.

The merger of those two companies looks as wise given the global competition, capital power, and industry complexity from autonomous technologies.

This could create a global automotive leader.

31st October 2019
UGAZ And DGAZ Stocks – How To Trade Them

(Updated October 2021)

UGAZ and DGAZ are ETNs tracking natural gas prices.
Energy exchange-traded products (ETPs) might be a good trading opportunity as much as energy ETFs.

UGAZ and DGAZ stock closely watch the US Natural Gas Fund (UNG) and UNG tracks the price movements in natural gas.

Let’s make a distinction between those two.

The main purpose of UGAZ (VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas) is to increase the daily performance of UNG by three times. That’s 300%. To make this clear, if UNG price grows 1%, UGAZ will display a daily increase of 3%. The best time to trade UGAZ is when you have a bullish sentiment on UNG.

The main aim of DGAZ (VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas) is to generate profits from the losses in the UNG fund. DGAZ will increase the losses by three times inversely. Meaning, if UNG price drops by 1%, DGAZ could bring you a gain of 3%. So, the best time to think about DGAZ is when you have a bearish sentiment on the UNG fund.
As you can see, both UGAZ and DGAZ have 3:1 leverage. That can notably boost your potential profit.

Trading UGAZ and DGAZ

If you want to trade them, it’s vital to watch the UNG fund. UNG fund is the basis of ETF that runs both of them. This can be a complex fund but you can go short in the long term and consider both UGAZ and DGAZ. Natural gas is a highly volatile commodity and UNG is not straight associated with natural gas in the physical sense. So, UNG isn’t a clever investment if you keep in mind it fell by more than 90% after its start. Also, it doesn’t pay dividends. Instead, UNG uses future contracts and OTC exchanges to find and copy the natural gas price. It doesn’t hold stocks. So, we can say that UNG isn’t a good investment by itself. There is where UGAZ and DGAZ come to the scene. If you don’t care for dividends and just want to keep the position for a short-time the long-term volatility of FUNG will not affect your investment.

As we said, UGAZ increases the UNG gains, while DGAZ goes up when UNG falls in price. But keep for the short-term, as long-term holding is never recommended.

UGAZ and DGAZ trading opportunities

These products can be risky. Well, you have to follow the news as ETNs give 3-time leverage in a single day. As we said, when the natural gas price rises by 1%, UGAZ will rise by 3%, and DGAZ will fall by 3%. To repeat, if you want to hold UGAZ or DGAZ the percentage performance will oppose your expectations.
A lot of circumstances may influence these products. For example, politics, global economy, supply and demand, weather, interest rates, and many others.
The way to trade USO or UNG is to trade options. That will allow you to achieve better risk-reward levels. The profit potential could be tremendous.

Bottom line

If you look at the historical data you will find peaks over winter, for example, but also, sometimes the price can make a sharp move down.
Why does this happen? The natural gas price depends on weather forecasts. So, you have to watch that. If you see the meteorologists are expecting a warm winter you can be sure the demand will be lower. So, pay more attention to DGAZ.
The other factor that may influence the gas price is the change in natural gas supply. So, you have to keep attention on weekly natural gas storage reports.
Both will give you the future course of the natural gas price. And, to add more pain, remember, UNG isn’t always successful while mimicking the gas prices. You have to be ready for the UNG price failure.
UGAZ is a tactical trading tool. It provides 3-time exposure to its reference index, the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Excess Return Index. This ETN is not designed like a buy and holds an investment. The return can differ hugely from its initial exposure.
It consists of complex effects and extreme concentration on quick period natural gas prospects.
DGAZ is the inverse product, it is intended to be a tactical trading tool, not a buy-and-hold investment. It is for a one-day holding period.

30th October 2019
Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

The PEG ratio is one of the most popular metrics. It is so easy to calculate it. It never takes more than 10 secs even if you are not good at math.

But, what do you think, is this extremely simple metric, this PEG ratio really useful?

Let’s see. Let’s examine it a bit more on some examples.

First of all, the PEG ratio or the price/earnings to growth ratio is a stock valuation measure. Investors use it to evaluate a company’s performance and investment risk. It is a measure, so it can be calculated.

When the PEG ratio value is 1 we can say there is an excellent bond between the company’s market value and its expected earnings growth. If the PEG ratio is higher than 1, the stock is overvalued. But when the PEG ratio is lower than 1, the stock is undervalued.

The formula for PEG ratio is:

PE Ratio (Price/Earnings) / Expected Growth Rate = PEG Ratio

Assume we are examining two stocks with different characteristics

Stock A company:

price – $20/share
earnings – $4/share
expected EPS growth – 5%

Stock B company:

price – $40/share
earnings – $4/share
expected EPS growth = 20%

For stock A company

P/E ratio = $20/$4 = 5
PEG ratio = 5/5 = 1

For stock B company

P/E ratio = $40/$4 = 10
PEG ratio = 10/20 = 0.5

If we study the P/E ratio for valuation plans, we will discover that the stock B company has an advantage because it has a P/E ratio that is 50% less than that stock A company has. But if you find that company A is going to improve its earnings 5 times faster than company B, you may modify your opinion. If you use the price to earnings growth, you will see that the stock A company trades at a lower PEG ratio than stock B company. So, what can we conclude? Company A stock may give a better value.

But is that really true?

Well, there are some weaknesses connected to the PEG ratio. Earnings growth is not an isolated thing in the market minds. To get a whole picture of the stock value you have to take care of many factors such as cash flow, dividends, revenue growth, etc.

Further, when it comes to “growth” in the phrase “price/earnings to growth ratio” you will be faced with one problem when you are trying to value a company. You actually don’t know the rate of earnings growth. In the best case, you can guess or rely on Wall Street analysts. Having thin in mind, your PEG will be as good as your data is.

Well, something is good with the PEG ratio. It is very useful for smaller companies but for large companies (for example Disney or Ford) where the growth isn’t so important to total returns, it can cheat.

So, is the PEG ratio really useful?

You have to keep in mind that it isn’t a mathematical result. The method is as good as its inputs. The future growth rate could be the main problem in this PEG formula. When you or any analyst make forecasts about the future it can be wrong.

To make it clear, it is easy to calculate the PEG ratio for companies with weak growth. But, mature companies with excellent earnings and great dividends, have a slow growth rate. So, such companies will never have a PEG ratio of 1 or less. Right?

It is almost the same for companies with fast growth.

For instance, a company growing in a surplus of 30% per year will be incapable to maintain such a growth rate. Can you see how the PEG ratio is as good as its inputs? A huge amount of failures in the future earnings growth rises from a too optimistic or too pessimistic viewpoint for the company or industry. Getting an exact PEG ratio depends on what factors you use in the calculation. You may find that the PEG ratio is incorrect if you use historical growth rates. This one especially can lead to mistakes when future growth varies from the past.

Bottom line

Traders-Paradise wants to give some spotlight on the pros and cons of using the PEG ratio. As the answer to a question Is PEG ratio really useful, we can say: the PEG ratio is useful but only when you use it to improve a more precise discounted cash flow analysis or relative valuation.

23rd October 2019
How To Know If a Stock is Worth Buying

How to recognize if a stock is worth investing in?
What causes a stock to be good or bad?
What things to consider?

By Guy Avtalyon

How to know if a stock is worth buying? Let’s assume you are new in this field and how you can decide what stock to buy. For some investors, it is a tricky part. To be honest, it is hard for everyone. The risk is involved, the volatility of stock or market, the investment goal. Everything is on the table. But if you follow some rules connected to the estimation you can figure out how to know if the stock is worth buying. Yes, many people will tell you stock investing is like a wheel of fortune. And they are wrong. Investing is like solving the problem. Everyone has its own way, own style, but the goal is the same: solving a problem.

Prudent investors must enter the stock investing as if they have to solve a problem. Step by step.

Buying stock isn’t like buying a new sofa and when you find it isn’t for your room you can take it back. When you buy stocks, you have to be convinced they will hold their value, increase in value, and you will gain profit when you sell or deliver to you notable dividends over time. The main point is to know when a stock is worth buying.

Look at the price

When you have to decide if some stock is worth buying the first thing you will find is its price. You have to figure out how much the ownership of shares in some companies will cost you.

The amount of money you have in your hands will determine how many shares you can buy but the most important is to know historical data about particular stock prices. If you find the stock has steadily increased over time you will know that you can expect a good value in the future.

Pay attention to revenue growth

Share prices will grow if a company is growing. A company is growing when rising its revenue. Increasing revenue will show you if the company is strong. We can say it is a major indicator often called top line. The important part is not looking at revenue isolated. You have to observe all rise and drops in each quarter and year. And here is the tricky part. The positive trendline is good for the stock price but the revenue may be dropping or be flat and it is important to understand why that is.

You should check the company’s current holdings, projections for future operations and stability. If you hear or read some news, no matter if they are local or even rumors that the company is doing bad, it is better to step back. You wouldn’t like to hold stocks with so much stress. Your money is involved and you could lose everything invested. So, check the company’s revenue, it is easy since almost all companies have their official websites where you can find all this info.

But keep one thing in mind. If it is a temporary situation and historical data shows its stock was good in price that can be good for you to buy a stock at a low price and wait for it to rebound over time.

Some stocks may temporarily drop in price and it can be a good deal to buy them now because they have the potential to recover.

What is the company’s earnings per share

This info is important and you can easily count it. Just divide the leftover amount at the end of each quarter by the number of shares the company has sold, and you get the earnings per share. For example, if a company made $100 million in profits in the prior year and has 52 million shares, the earnings per share is $1.92. As an investor, you should pay attention to this since the higher earnings per share (EPS) shows you that the company is in good shape. And the tricky part again arises. Some companies can manipulate with EPS. The process is simple. They do it by buying back their shares. In that way, they are boosting EPS but not increasing profits.

Use the technical and fundamental analysis to know if a stock is worth buying

You will have some idea about stock’s quality if you check the prices over the past 200 days, for example. And you will see the trends. Trends are repeating.

Analysts think that by observing the movement over a determined period, you can define the baseline, the point where the stock should recover. Here the advice, don’t buy the stock at its highs, wait to come close to the baseline or to hit it. Some may ask how is good stock if hits the baseline. Well, when the stock hits the peak it is expensive, the price is increased, and the stock has no more space to run so the only possible scenario is to go down. If you buy a stock at its peak you will lose your money. So, it isn’t a good time to buy a stock.

Also, perform fundamental analysis. That will show the current and projected financial aspect. Use that info to discover now’s value. Use the company’s statement and balance sheet to determine the business strength. It isn’t a 100% indicator, but it is enough good sign of what you can expect from the company in the foreseeable future.

How to know if a stock is worth buying

One thing is sure and you must have that in mind when you are trying to know if a stock is worth buying.

A company can’t manage every single thing that might affect the business. The general economy can influence the health of a company and its stock play. For example, consumer prices, the changes to interest rates can affect how a company is doing. That is not in connection with its own business. But, the stable economy produces companies’ wealth and share increases come with that. And opposite, share prices can stumble during times of economic uncertainty.

You will find many analysts that issue reports and tips about individual stocks. These tips appear with “buy” or “sell” ratings. But analysts often disagree, so it isn’t recommended to depend on one report. Always compare several to know if a stock is worth buying.

22nd October 2019
Getting Started Investing is the Hardest Part

Getting started investing can be very easy and smooth since you need a little money to start. Investing is better than savings accounts because it can shorten the period of earning.

By Gorica Gligorijevic

Getting started investing isn’t a big deal, it shouldn’t fright you. Honestly, it’s so easy.

You know what, when I was just a little girl (my grandma used to sing this) my parents gave a lot of effort to teach me how to save money. Grandparents would like to give me money for some holidays with advice to keep it for rainy days. I had my savings account. From time to time, they would put some money there but most of the time they insisted I have to put. And I did it. Not frequently, I have to admit, but still. With time that habit got strong roots. Every month I’d put 10% of my earnings on my savings account. I am still doing the same. That first savings account is my 10%-account.

No matter how big or small portion is. 10% would every time end there.

I can only speak from personal experience but I am sure that other people could easily find themselves in the same situation.

I am not going to give you advice because I know that is almost impossible to put anything on your savings when you are living paycheck to paycheck. Yes, the amount of money that the majority have available to spend every month is insufficient to put something aside. Despite the old saying about money: If you save me today, I’ll save you tomorrow.

But we all know how important is to have something aside. And it is possible. Let me show you how.

How getting started investing

Okay, do you know the rule “pay yourself first”? Yes, starting this is hard. But do you understand the meaning of this rule? Of course, you do but why not tell it again. This means you have to put on your savings every month some amount of money. It doesn’t matter how much it is. A few dollars, or other currency you have. Just when you get your salary, put aside several coins. Every month. And you will see, that amount will grow with time. Try this. I am not going to tell you how should you spend this money. You may have enough for exotic travel, or to buy a car, or after some time you may have enough for house buying deposit. Just start.

No, I will never tell you to live below your means.

Sacrificing isn’t a good way to save anything except life. If you try this method, living below your means, you will be unhappy and you will always have the feeling that something was taken from you. It can be a trigger for something more serious. But, anyway, try not to purchase the famous brands, too expensive things. Do it occasionally if it makes you happy. But don’t let it be your goal. Life is a lot more than brands.

Create a budget

What you can do is to make a budget frame. It is a smart idea to write down the amount of money you have every month. You can do that in some excel spreadsheet, or just in some memo. Also, there is a lot of money management apps you can use. OK, that’s the first step. The next is to subtract all the costs you have, for example, taxes, debts, loans if you have (don’t worry, we all have), etc. What you have in your hands after these deductions is your net income. This is the amount you have to use as a base for creating your budget. So, track your spending to be able to make some adjustments if it is necessary and possible, of course. You should review your budget from time to time to be sure you are on a good track.

Getting started investing

Do you know that your money can work for you? Yes. Let’s assume that after one year of saving you have enough for exotic travel. Why do you need to make it right now? Go somewhere else and save e.g. $1.000 on your trip. That amount is more than enough for getting started off investing. You can do that with less money, here you will find how. You can choose to invest in some mutual funds (it is probably the best for starting), or stocks, or real estate. By investing you will generate a greater return than your money sleeping in your savings account. If you invest in something you will let your money work for you. The whole process may be done with your banker’s help. Your bank has financial advisors, investment advisors, they will tell you where to invest. Or you can engage some brokers.

What are the advantages of investing

One of the main advantages of investment is that you can have your money work for you to earn more. Let’s say this way. You don’t need to work more to earn more. Your investment will that for you. Investing could bring you a higher living standard, for example.

Further, you can apply investment plans for saving and growing money. The best part of investing is that you can be a long-term investor and money earned from investments can be spent to cover future expenses, for example, for your retirement, or buying a house, new car, your children’s higher education costs, or just you want to have more.

It is important for you to understand that investing isn’t gambling.

You can make a profit on investment due to research and careful choice of a suitable investment vehicle. It isn’t betting. The truth is that you can make losses in the market. That’s the reason to make less risky investments. Never mind if they have lower returns. Stay on them until you find yourselves capable to play riskier. That time may never come. You can stay in safe investments for your whole life. It is OK.

In that way, you will protect your property in the long run.

So, you can see that getting started investing isn’t always the hardest part. It can be very easy and smooth. You just need a little money to start. At least if you have some targeted amount you have to save in some period, investing will short that period. You’ll be able to gain it sooner. Sounds good, don’t you think?

10th October 2019
Bull Market – What Everyone Should Know?

A stock bull market means that investment’s price rises over a long period. Investors’ faith in stock prices lead the prices themselves in a self-fulfilling prediction. A bull market means profits for investors who own stocks.

What exactly is a bull market? If you are like me several years ago, you are confused with all these terms, conditions, maths, evaluations, or estimations of the stock market.

May I be honest with you?

The truth is that I know nothing about the stock market when I entered. I was foolish, I know. But my desire to earn, to be investor was something I never have had before. It was like this…

A personal story

A friend of mine had a grandfather. Extremely interesting figure. He came from Italy to the US as a kid. OMG, he was just 12 when he bought a ticket and came with nothing except dreams about fortune. To shorten this story, after several years of struggling he made his first success. He became a clerk in the office of some broker. Step by step, that wonderful man became very rich. People, listen. Very rich!

I wanted the same. ASAP! I asked him for the recipe. Oh, how I would like I never did such a thing! The first lesson was: You know nothing, have to learn a lot. C’mon, man! Give me something else to start. I thought I know everything. I have just finished university. With a diploma in the hands, I thought I know everything possible about anything. Of course, I was wrong.

That blessed man told me I had to learn. How to, where to go? I spoke with some friends. No help. So, I decided to start. I found a broker, put some money (not a lot) on my trading account, and started to find a stock. That was a nightmare! My first trade was totally a disaster! I placed another trade. The result was the same. In two trades I lost everything.

Ok, at least I tried. Then I went back to my friend’s grandfather and asked him to teach me.

“You get your first lesson, my son.”

OK, I understand. I have to go for basic. And I started to learn. You must learn to have a chance to earn.

The bull market was the point where I started. I can’t explain why, but I felt I needed to know what it is.

The term “bull market” indicates a stock market is rising. Of course, every single investor supposes the market to rise. Better say, has a hope it will rise. But having only hope means to stand in the mud. You can slide in a moment and fall. Having my previous experience in the mind, I needed more facts.

Nice from this zoological term

So, I learned that the bull market occurs when the prices rise for 20% or more.

Further, I learned that a bull market systematically produces higher highs and higher lows. A stock bull market happens in a strong economy. Nice again, thanks bulls. But what can drive a stock bull market, that I wanted to know?

And I found (with a little help from my friend) that great revenue, profit, and P/E ratio are the most important.

The revenue should be in line with the economy, meaning revenue should grow by the speed of economic growth. Here is some interesting part. As consumers spend more on goods and services rise the economy will rise. Super!

And I came to the companies profit.

The revenue must generate profit.

But some knowledge defeated me. I thought that great profit is a wonderful thing and it is good when the company can generate more profit from the same revenue money. But it is not so simple.

And the P/E ratio! The stock price is just the amount of money it will cost to buy a share of a company. But stock prices can vary. If the demand for the stock rise, its price will rise too. The P/E ratio estimates the relationship between a stock price and its earnings per share.

I was confused just as you are now, I believe.

In a bull market

In a bull market, you’ll notice powerful demand and limited supply for securities. This means that more investors want to buy securities and less want to sell. What will happen? The stock price will rise, right. Let’s go further! Let’s observe investors’ psychology.

In the stock bull market condition, investors have the hope of earning a profit. They are positive and optimistic. Oh, how I wanted to have that experience. Instead, I was scared to death. I needed more knowledge to sure what I am doing. My first trade was so stressful and, by the way, I wanted to show my older friend that I can learn.

In the periods of the bull market, people have more money.

And they are spending. In turn, it stimulates the economy to grow. My old friend told me something important and let me share that with you.

When it is the bull market, you should buy stocks in the early stage, while they are not too expensive. As the price goes up, just wait for its peaks and sell your stocks. And don’t worry if there are some losses in price. It is temporary. Just invest in more stocks with a higher chance of getting a bigger return.
I am grateful to him for this lesson. But there was one piece of advice that sounded the most important to me: “Play the market like toreador plays his wonderful performance in the arena. Peaceful, with confidence, elegant. Tickling the bull. You have to know where the limits are, don’t get surprised.”

I’ll not. Thank you, my dear mentor.

9th October 2019
How to Calculate the Fair Value of Your Stock

Fair value points to the genuine value of a stock or other security that is agreed between the two parties, the seller and the buyer. It can be calculated for the assets that are traded, but not for the products that are being liquidated. It can be a challenge to calculate the fair value if there are no obviously visible market prices. The point of this is to define the price or value that is fair for both sides, the seller will not be on the losing side, and the buyer will end with a satisfying price.

For example, a trader Anna sells its stocks to the trader John at $50 per share. The trader John believes he could sell it at $70 per share once he gets them. So, John buys 1,000 shares at the price Anna is setting. It is a fair value because both sides agreed the price and the trade is beneficial for each of them.

How to calculate fair value?

You can do it with comparable information, for example.

Use respectable financial news and find the last closing price for the stock you want to buy. Say, you want to buy 100 shares of some company and the last closing price of their stocks was $30. The fair value of 100 shares would be 100 x 30 = $3,000.

Also, you can calculate the fair value using the discounted cash flows.

For example, you want to examine investment that offers a range of cash flows. And you can’t find anything comparable. So, how to calculate the fair value of the investment?

Let’s say it is an investment of $10,000 and it generates $2,500 cash flow per year. What you have to do is to write down the cash flows for, let’s say, 5 years.

$10,000

1 – $2,500
2 – $2,500
3 – $2,500
4 – $2,500
5 – $2,500

Assume that the rate of return is 6%, and first calculate the discount factor so that you could calculate the discounted cash flows for each year.

For calculation purposes, the percentages need to be transformed into whole numbers. It is done by adding 100 to the number of percents and then dividing that sum by 100, i.e. (100+6)/100=1.06. Now you can calculate the discount factor for each year by rising to power of that year this number, i.e. to the power of 1 for 1st, to power of 2 for 2nd, and so on.

That should look like this:

1.06^1 = 1.06
1.06^2 = 1.12
1.06^3 = 1.19
1.06^4 = 1.26
1.06^5 = 1.34

The next step is to divide every $2,500 cash flow by the discount factor for each of these five years.

$2,500 / 1,06 = $2,359
$2,500 / 1,12 = $2,232
$2,500 / 1.18 = $2,100
$2,500 / 1.26 = $1,984
$2,500 / 1.34 = $1,866

This produces five discounted cash flows of: $2,359, $2,232, $2,119, $1,984, and $1,866.
Add these five numbers to -10,000. That was the initial investment, do you remember? Let’s see the result. The result is 541. This means that using a 6% rate of interest, the fair value of this particular stocks is $541.

Also, you can calculate the fair value for a stock is by using the P/E (price to earnings) ratio.

The formula to calculate the P/E ratio is

the current stock price per share / current earnings per share

What you have to do is to compare P/E ratios among companies from the same industry. For example, if you want to find the fair value for a utility, you have to compare the P/E ratio to other P/E ratios in that industry.

If the company has a high P/E ratio it usually means the company is overvalued. On the other hand, a low P/E ratio shows the company is undervalued. For example, if you hold a stake of shares in a company with a P/E ratio of 4 and the average P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry is 2, you can be sure that your stock is expensive or, in other words, overvalued.

The next thing to do is to modify the stock price to the average P/E ratio. Let’s say the average P/E ratio is 2, and the P/E ratio on your stock is 4. This means the current price is $8 and earnings per share is $2. We know that by following the P/E ratio formula.

Use the P/E calculation to find what the stock price needs to have a P/E ratio of 2.

The equation is

New P/E ratio x Earnings per share

And the answer is 2 x $2 or $4. The fair value for this stock is $4, not $8.

Bottom line

The puzzle of what security is really worth is one of the basic questions in investing. By calculating fair value, you will find the answer, maybe not exactly but you will be very close to it. Although, fair value calculations are essential to any investor’s stock.

Ways to fair value can classify value investors and growth investors.

The growth investors will estimate earnings that can be unstable. On the other hand, value investors will buy stocks at a discount to their fair value. They will wait for the fair value of their investments to rise. But both kinds of investors have to know that their companies can stumble. Also, the company may get significantly bigger which will cause keeping historical growth rates difficult.

The point is to buy stocks that will rise to meet the fair value of the company.

You might find these interesting too:

>>> The Average Daily Trading Volume How to Calculate

>>> Calculate Portfolio Performance

>>> Short Selling For Profit

>>> Lot size in forex – What is it and How to calculate it?

3rd October 2019
Stock Investing – The Pros and Drawbacks

5 min read

by G. Gligorijevic

Stock investing isn’t just buy and sell stocks. It is the whole philosophy and math. Well, you have to learn more about the logic behind the stock market.

When you want to buy a stock, that means someone else has to sell it. Be aware, that someone has worked on the numbers and concluded that the wise move is to get out of the position right now. Do you know why that one decided like that? How to be sure you are doing a good job if you pick that stock?

Stock picking is a struggle against other investors.

Maybe they know just like you, maybe more, maybe less.

The basic formula is easy: Pay a value that’s smaller than the long-term, per-share price of the underlying business. The philosophy of investing is in understanding how to determine that value.

Maybe you prefer to be a “growth” investor. So, your focus should be on the analysis of a company’s potential for future profits. You should choose the one growing fastest. As a growth investor, you are interested in great earnings. The P/E or price-to-earnings ratio is a popular metric for valuing stocks. Growth investors often are willing to pay P/Es of 20 or more.

Value investors usually buy stocks with lower P/E ratios. This appears more traditionally. But buying cheap has some risks. Very often when some stock is cheap it is a sign that the company has some problems. Is this true? No! Simply NOT! There is no easy way or formula that helps you to pick a fabulous stock to deal with. You have to research and make a decision.

But maybe you should invest in funds than individual stocks.

Stock investing demands time and intense analysis. It also needs notable cash to create a fully diversified portfolio. A choice is a mutual fund. That will spread your bets between hundreds of stocks.

Stock investing is attractive and enjoyable for a lot of people. If you want to enter the market on your own, you can use funds as the essence of your portfolio. Later, just set aside a small account for your selection of the individual stocks.

One of the main benefits of investing in the stock market is the chance to grow your money. Over time, the stock market performs a rise in value. Yes, the prices of individual stocks rise and fall daily. But, investments in solid companies that are able to grow, tend to make profits for investors. Moreover, investing in many different stocks will boost your wealth by leveraging growth in different areas of the economy. It will bring you a profit even if some of your individual stocks lose value.

Stock investing gives a lot of benefits to investors.

Owning stocks means to take advantage of a growing economy.
How does it come?
That is a kind of chain of good fortune. Everything is connected and logical.
Assume you want to buy a stock you’ve been examining for some time. And finally, they announce a surprise bit of good news and the price rallies sharply higher and so you jump in.
Let’s say, you have a sudden profit on your hands but, the stock reverses. It has retracted back to your entry price. Actually, it has gone beyond your entry price and you are a loser! You may think that it’s just market games and “shaking out weak hands”. So, you decided to hold on, knowing that patience is a trading power. Finally, you’re down further than you expected to be in the stock.
If you were ultra convinced of the upside potential, you may see this as an opportunity to buy more shares at a better price. On the other hand, you may panic and sell as you continue to watch the price trend further against you.

What happened?

Experts developed the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which states that stock prices instantly diminish all news. So, there’s no possible way for a trader to profit from news releases. That experts feel that strongly.

Here is one example.

Maybe two years ago, Samsung announced it is expecting profits to hit record levels in the third quarter. And almost three times as much as the same period the year before.
Following the announcement, their share price dropped.
That might seem counter-intuitive. But there are other factors at play. At the same time as announcing this expected profit win, Samsung’s CEO quit. He told that the company was going through an “unprecedented crisis” and that “a new spirit and young leadership” was needed to respond to the challenges. In this case, the decline in stock price can be understood. You know, if the CEO is worried, perhaps investors should be too.

But sometimes share prices drop on good news and it is really hard to understand why.

Market expectations are always priced into the market price. Say, for example, a company has a forecasted earning per share of $1. They’ve never missed an earnings target. So investors expect the firm will actually earn $1.10 per share. They think it’s currently undervalued. The firm then announces an earnings report of $1.05 per share.

Good news, right? They beat their forecast.

But, crucially, because investors thought the firm should earn more than this $1.05 per share, the stock’s price was bid upwards to a price that reflected earnings expectations. Because the real earnings are less than the current market price, the stock price drops as investors sell off their shares.
This effect can be intensified by investors who completely copy what everyone else is doing. In this case, selling off their shares. Every investor must have the bigger picture. That’s the point.

What you have to do?

If the stock is basically strong, hold the stock despite the stock price going down. It won’t matter much in the long term if the company. Most of the great companies focus on their long-term goals. This means that a few times, they might miss the short-term expectations.
But, short-term interests shouldn’t be ignored completely by the company or investors. Nevertheless, if the company is overall performing good in the long run, then there’s no point of worry. In any business, there will be few difficulties in the short run.
Additionally, do not get connected to short-term expectations. Analysts will keep on making expectations every quarter. It’s their job and this is what they are paid for. If a company keeps on working for the short-term goals, it might never be able to focus on long-term growth.
Overall, if the temporary setbacks are not going to affect the long-term profitability of the company, then ignore the short-term fluctuations and hold your stock.

2nd October 2019