Tag: Profit

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The Average Stock Market Return

The stock market average return of 10% is exactly that – an average, while the returns for any particular year may be lower or higher.

The average stock market return was about 10% annual for the past almost 100 years. But when we take a look at any year particularly we could notice that the returns weren’t always average. And that is the truth about the average stock market return, it is average rarely.

Historical data shows the average stock market return is 10% but when you look at year-to-year it can vary. For example, this rate should be reduced by inflation. Inflation can vary too let’s say from 2% to 3% which is a regular rate.

But when we talk about investing and investors we usually think about long-term investments. To be honest, the stock market likes long-term investors. They are keeping their investments five or more years.

Keep in mind: the stock market’s returns aren’t average and could be far from average. For example, over the past 80 years, you could find that the average stock market return was from 8% to 12% only several times. Due to the volatility of the stock markets, most of the time the average stock market return was higher or lower. So, returns can be positive even when the market is volatile but the average stock market return will not rise every year. Sometimes it will be lower sometimes higher.

What is the average stock market return?

The average stock market return actually is about 7%. If we take into account the periods of highs, for example, the 1950s the returns were up to 16%. But we had the negative returns of 3% in the 2000s.

For example, from 1998 to 2018, we had an average stock market return of 6.88%. The lower return came from the enormous loss in the market in 2008.

But, over the last 50 years, the average stock market return was 10.09%.

The stats may help here, the Dow Jones – by May 25, 2018, the average annual return was 5.42%. On January 6, 2012, a 25-year period ended with an average return of 7.55% per year. But if we look at data from the beginning of 20 century, the average stock market return was around 4.3% respectively.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 index had average returns from 1957 through the end of 2018 about 7.96%. But, the average annual return from its inception in 1926 through the end of 2018 was about 10%. Last year, 2019 was great with a return of 30.43%. If we include dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 return was 33.07%.

How to calculate the average return on stocks?

The average return on your stocks’ portfolio should reveal to you how well your investments have run in a particular period. This can also help you to predict future returns. Remember, this measure isn’t the annual compound growth rate.

So, to calculate the average return on stocks you will need to calculate the return for each period. The next step is to add returns together and divide the result by the number of periods. That’s how you will get the average stock return.

Calculate the average rate of return

Firstly, what is the average rate of return?
It is the percentage rate of return that is expected on an investment but compared to the initial cost.

The formula is quite simple. Divide the average annual net earnings after taxes or return on the investment to get the average annual net earnings and then display in percentage.

The average rate of return formula = (Average Annual Net Earnings – Taxes) / Initial investment x 100%

Here is the explanation of what we did:

Firstly, determine the earnings from stock for a particular period, let’s say 10 years. Now, you have to calculate the average annual return. Do that by dividing the total earnings after 10 years by the number of years.

Further, if you have a one-time investment, find the initial investment in the stock. If you want to calculate for regular stock investments, take the average investment over life.

And finally, divide the average annual return by initial investment in the stock.

Also, you can do all of this and get the same result if you divide the average annual return by average investment in the stock but expressed in percentage.

Let’s take the example of a stock that is likely to generate returns of 10% per year after taxes and for a period of 3 years.

The initial investment $10.000
First-year’s net earnings $1.000
Second-year net earning $2.100
Third-year net earnings $3.310

Use formula

The average rate of return formula = (Average Annual Net Earnings – Taxes) / Initial investment x 100%

After 3 years your initial investment will be increased by 64% or you will have $6.420 more in your account.

What does this mean for investors?

As always, computing dividends is important and you have to account for them. If you reinvested received dividends, even better. That’s compounding on compounding!

The truth be told, those who have stayed invested in stocks have largely been rewarded.

The understanding of the concept of the average rate of return is important because investors make decisions based on the possible amount of return expected from an investment. Based on the average rate of return, you can decide will you enter into an investment or not. Moreover, the return is used for ranking the stocks and ultimately you will choose per the ranking and include them in the portfolio.

In a few words, the higher the return, the better is the stock.

But let’s examine one different case of the average stock market return.

Let’s say your initial investment is also $10.000 but (this isn’t easy to say) in the first year you lost 20% of the initial investment. That’s bad news. But in the second year, you gained 20% of the initial investment. Oh, how nice it is!

Yes, nice but your gain is zero.

(-20+20) = 0

What do you think? Do you still have your $10.000? Things never move in that way.

Here is why.

When you lose 20% of your initial investment you ended up with $8.000. Right? That amount became the amount of your investment. On that amount, you gained 20% or $1.600. So, after two years you have $9.600 in your hands and you are short for $400 compared to your initial investment of $10.000. You lose money and your return isn’t zero. Your return is minus and you will need more gains in bigger percentages to cover that loss.

The stock market average return isn’t misleading. That is how you have to calculate it.

Or to calculate CAGR.

Bottom line

This means that investors MUST have a financial plan and investing strategy.
There are no guarantees for big gains in the stock market and never were. The average return of 7% or 10% is great if you are a long-term investor. It is reasonable to expect a good return on the current stock markets if you reduce your enthusiasm when the good times come.
That’s nice, you’re making money. But, when stocks are jumping, remember that not so good time may come. Especially keep this in your mind over the bull market cycle.
You can get the average return only if you buy and hold but not if you trade frequently. Even a few percent per year can produce nice gain over the years.

3rd January 2020
Civeo Corporation Could Be Good Turnaround Stock

Civeo Corporation is a spin-off the Oil States International.
It is a US accommodation service and multinational corporation. It is a spin-off of Oil States International and a public company listed on the NYSE

by Gorica Gligorijevic

Civeo Corporation is publicly traded on NYSE under the ticker name CVEO. According to the current price, it may never be so cheap. What we think is that this stock could easily be a great opportunity for investing. How does it come? Well, when the stock is cheap as this one is just a small sign of good news can send them flying.

What we are talking about is the Civeo Corporation stock is turnaround stock. It had happened before, this particular stock made 115% profit in 1 month. This stock is ready to give some of the highest returns. How do we know that? Well, as we said just a small sign appeared recently. Investor Carl Icahn bought a 9.9% stake. That is a sign of a turnaround. The most interesting thing with this stock is that you will receive the 4.7% dividend while waiting for a turnaround.

If you buy this stock now it is possible to double its value very soon. This stock can perform very well in 2020 as being an incredible buy.

Market Cap $162.547M
Current price $0.9587

Why invest in Civeo Corporation stock?

Turnaround stock investing is a real source for investors. Hence, when you notice that some stock has a great probability of return within a year.

Civeo ( CVEO) reported third-quarter revenues of $148.2 million, a net income of $4.5 million, and an operating cash flow of $23.6 million.

Civeo Corporation delivered a third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $36.2 million. It is up 62% compared to the previous year, and also, there is a free cash flow of $20.3 million Also, the reduced leverage ratio from 4.26x to 3.52x on September 30, this year.

The company completed the acquisition of Action Industrial Catering which provides the company’s presence in the Integrated Services and Western Australian markets. Moreover, for the fourth quarter of 2019, Civeo awaits adjusted EBITDA $19.5 million to $23.5 million. For the full of this year, Civeo Corporation is expanding adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $98.0 million to $102.0 million. Civeo is reducing its 2019 capital expenditure guidance to a span of $33 million to $37 million.

“We are encouraged by the Company’s achievements this quarter and we will continue to focus on operational execution, revenue diversification, free cash flow generation, deleveraging our balance sheet and winning new work as opportunities present themselves,” said Bradley J. Dodson, Civeo’s President, and Chief Executive Officer.

Civeo Corporation company

Civeo Corporation is the foremost provider of hospitality services. But also has notable market positions in the oil operations in Canadian and the Australian. Civeo gives full solutions for accommodations of workers with long term and temporary lodging and gives food services, full housekeeping, power generation, communications systems, and logistics services. Currently, Civeo Corporation operates a total of 30 lodges in Canada, Australia, and the U.S., with approximately 31,000 rooms.

Why invest in turnaround stocks?

First of all, they may never be cheap again. By investing in turnaround stocks you may score double or triple-digit gains. How? The beaten-down stocks with real value will survive and provide a profit despite the overall market because they are driven by key developments in the company. And, the most important, turnaround stocks can run independently of the markets.

The turnaround stocks may be hidden for the majority of investors. Hence, you must have a focus on several key criteria. The company must have a stable focus on businesses and be able to recognize and drop all profitless ventures. Such a company makes changes in management with successful turnarounds.

In the past, such a company completed a turnaround plan that gave clear, real direction to employees. Also very important to be noticed, the company must have several great shareholders who will support the turnaround attempt. The company has to be a trustworthy brand. All of these are guarantees that stock will have a great turnaround. It’s up to us to recognize the potential and buy on a bargain.

When you notice all these indicators, it means you have got the opportunity to buy a great turnaround stock. It is time to put some of your money into stocks that give excellent value and powerful management. Yes, they are still beaten down but is it fair? This particular stock is ready for a big return.

13th November 2019
How to profit from The Stock Market Plunging?

By Guy Avtalyon

The stock market is plunging but will it crash or not is still unknown. It isn’t easy to predict the stock market crash because it occurs suddenly. The point is to be prepared for such a scenario and here are several ways on how to do so.

I don’t want to frighten you, but we have to talk about the stock market plunging.

The volatility of the markets is back again. Actually, the market is plunging. That is the data from the first six days in October. The S&P 500 has dropped a total of 83 points. Now it is almost 115 points lower than in September. Having this in mind, the trade war and the inverted yield curve, also, let us know how not to speak about a recession.

The stock market is plunging

These gaps are standard. For the last 70 years, there were 37 corrections in the S&P 500. If our counting is good that is almost every second year. And mentioned drops were about 10%. Now, we have 5% and such were more common in history.

This is the price we have to pay for long-term wealth making. So, you must understand that long-term investors have an advantage against the short-term since they would infrequently experience continuing damage from stock market corrections. Time and patience, wait for a bull market rally. It will nullify the correction in the stock market. Anyway, the point of long-term investing is to buy and hold. Hold on to your stocks, that is the key to winning in the long run.

I warned you how difficult this year can be. But when investors’ fears overwhelm the market and the stock market is plunging, there is still something you can do.

Is a safe-haven stock right move?

Yes, you can thrive during the stock market correction if you buy safe-haven stocks. For example, buy gold. The gold is a store of value, so it is a safe-haven asset.

The truth is that you will not gain a lot of profit by holding gold for a long time. It is a physical commodity, there is no dividends. So think about buying a stake of shares in some companies that produce the jewelry or anything of gold instead. Also, a good choice is to buy shares of mining. This is also a suitable alternative when the stock market is plunging and getting lower.

Stocks with low volatility

Companies that provide constant profits, pay a dividend, and have low volatility can be very beneficial when the course in the market turns. Some of them will give you yield much bigger than the yield of a 10-year Treasury bond, for example. Find some company with the old fashioned model of business. Yes, it can be boring but in the long run, it is excellent. The point is to survive the market plunging.

Basic goods and utilities as a safe investment

Buying stocks of some companies that produce cleanser or hygiene is an excellent choice. People will always need to be clean and they will buy these products no matter how deep the crisis is. Also, stocks of energy companies. They are not low-cost but they are eternal. Even more, these defensive basic-need stock can grow in a volatile market.

What to do when the stock market is plunging?

Many things in the markets depend on risk tolerance. Your investment portfolio is based on risk tolerance. The main problem with the stock market plunging and when it crashes is that they are coming suddenly, no one can be sure that the crash will come and when, or the market will recover. Market crashes happen quickly, there is no warning. The problem with investors’ risk tolerance is that is very hard to adjust it depending on circumstances, especially during the bear market. You’ll be emotional, panicked, you will be encompassed by fears. To avoid all of these, take care of your portfolio structure. You should hold liquid assets, such as cash, bonds. When the market crash occurs you need a through-out scenario to avoid losses. Liquide commodities will provide you that.

Being an investor means you have to put your feelings away. You have to make your decisions separate from them.
Investing is magnificent. But life is also.

During the bear markets, even trivial corrections can be remarkably dangerous. But at the same time, bear markets will offer you great moments. The point is to know what you want and where are looking for. But Warren Buffett thinks about bear markets as buying opportunities. The trick is that in such market periods the stock prices of large companies are going down. When that moment occurs watch in your favorite stocks. The time will do the rest. You should buy it when others are selling.

15th October 2019
How To Profit By Investing In Bad Companies

2 min read

You don’t believe it is possible. Profit by investing in bad companies sounds pretty stupid and naive. But it is possible.

To be more precise, sometimes it is possible to make notable investment returns by buying the stocks with minimum chances. The key is to recognize the companies which will grow in the future.

There is some math behind. The point is to make a difference between business and stocks.

Let’s be more clear!

For example, you have some money aside and want to invest in some cheap stocks. But you find two similar companies in the same industry, say gold.

Company ABC is a large one. Gold is currently at $100, its exploration and other costs are $60, that is a $40 profit. Not bad.

Company XYZ is a disastrous business. It’s exploration and other costs of $90, which is only $10 in profit at the current gold price of $100.

Which one to choose?

The logical answer would be ABC but the wrong one.

Let’s assume the hypothetical situation.

The price of gold suddenly rise in the market, and the current it is $300, for example.

Let’s see the numbers for those companies.

Company ABC offers $240 in profit.

$300 gold price – $60 in expenses = $240 profit

Company XYZ offers $210 in profit

$300 gold price – $90 in costs = $210

But here is where the math has the greatest influence.

Company ABC earns more money for any reason, its profit rose 600% from $40 to $240. But, compare it with company XYZ which grew its profit 2,100%.

Moreover, there is a phenomenon

It is very reasonable to assume that company XYZ will experience a multiple expansion, meaning added increase. The possible final result: company XYZs stock price is raising exponentially more, much more than the stock price of company ABC.

What to say? Company ABC is maybe a healthier business, but company XYZ is better as a market choice.

How is possible to profit by investing in bad companies?

This is recognized as operating leverage.

Operating leverage describes a company’s level of fixed costs in comparison to its revenue. Companies with high operating leverage have large fixed expenses. They are obliged to cover them as first. If fixed expenses are exceeded, the revenue will fall. Such a situation may cause great difficulties for the company, from large cuts to lower profits, even bankruptcy.

You can find companies with high operating leverage in almost all sectors and industries. Gold miners, airlines, crude oil companies, are some examples. Actually, you may find these companies where the business has enormous changes in revenue. You will notice enormous profitability fluctuations. That comes because fixed costs can’t always adapt as quickly as the market value.

But you have to know that investing in bad companies carry a lot of stress and risk. Investing in some of these companies can make you rich but it is almost impossible for them to provide you a constant profit.

It’s easier to invest in some solid businesses with steady profit and dividend. You should avoid headaches.

You would like to read How to Become A Trader or Investor in Just 10 Minutes

15th September 2019
How to Calculate the Loss and Profit
2 min read

(Updated October 2021)

It is always useful to discover the percentage rise or drop. That is called profit and loss.
To calculate profit and loss we have to make clear some terms involved in the calculation.

We will use the stock as an example.

* Cost Price ( CP): The price at which you buy a stock is the cost price. That is the amount paid for purchasing stock.

* Selling price (SP): The Price at which you sell a stock is the sales price. That is the amount received when a stock is sold.

* Profit (also the gain): You get a profit when you sell a stock at a price higher than its cost price. You will like to sell your stock at a higher price. CP < SP

* Loss: If you sell a stock at a price lower than buying price, then you caught a loss. CP > SP

The percentage of profit or loss is always calculated on the cost price.

The formula for profit is

Profit = SP – CP

The formula for loss is

Loss = CP – SP

Let’s calculate the percentage of loss and the percentage profit. Percentage Loss and Percentage Profit are calculated based on CP

Profit% = (Profit/CP) × 100

Loss% = (Loss/CP) × 100

For example, one trader purchased a share of stocks for $1.000 and then sold it or $1.250.

What is the profit and profit in percentages? Is it 3%, 15%, 18%, 20%, 25%?

OK, this is basic.

The words “purchasing” or “buying” are indicated as CP, cost price.

In our case, CP is $1,000.

The trader sold the stock at $1.250.

The word “sell” is indicated as SP, selling price.

In our case, SP is $1.250.

We can easily find the profit. It is SP – CP, so

profit = $1.250 – $1.000 = $250

Don’t miss this What Is APY and How to Calculate it

Now, we have to find the profit percentage.

The formula is

[(profit)/CPx100]

so

[(250/1000)x100] = 25%

Our trader made a 25% profit in this transaction.

But what would happen if our trader sold the stock at $800?

CP is $1.000

SP is $800

loss = CP – SP

loss = $1000 – $800 = $200

or

[(200/1000)x100] = 20%

The trader’s loss is 20%.

Calculate the Loss and Profit in Percentages
- Divide the amount that you have profited on the investment by the amount invested. To calculate the profit, subtract from the price for which you sold the price that you initially paid for it.
- Now that you have your profit, divide the profit by the initial amount of the investment.
- The last step, multiply the number you got by 100 to see the percentage difference in the investment.
If the percentage is negative, you have lost on your trading. If the percentage is positive, you made a profit on your trade.

By calculating the profit or loss you are actually estimating the change. Our calculation is based on the relationship between the selling price, and cost price. The difference shows if we are making a profit from the transaction or will we have a loss.

You would like to READ: Gordon Growth Model – Mathematics of Trading
6th September 2019
Short Selling For Profit

What to do with stocks when the price starts to decline? Bet that a stock will fall more.

By Guy Avtalyon

Short selling for profit is a trading strategy that attempts to profit from an expected decrease in the price of a security. Basically, a short-seller wants to sell at a higher price and buy at lower.

How does short selling for profit work?

Let’s you are a trader and you have some information that some stock will decrease in value by the expiration date. Ofc, you don’t hold that stock but you can borrow it from a broker. For example, you borrow 100 stocks at $10 market price. And you open the position, meaning you want to sell them at market price by their expiration date. And you succeed. Then you close your short position and sell your borrowed stocks for $1,000. But before you give back that 100 stocks to your broker you are betting that their price will decrease in value before the expiration day. That happens. Now, you are buying these stocks at a lower price, it is called covering the short position.

Let’s say, the price of your borrowed stocks declines at $6 each.

You sold them at $1,000, bought them at $600. Return 100 stocks to the broker and you pocket $400.

(100x$10) – (100x$6) = $400

The risk in this kind of trading is literally unlimited because the price may rise and rise to infinity.

But, the profit can be huge, also. The previous example showed a short-selling for profit. Well, by using short selling you may gain loss too.

Example of making loss while using short selling.

The vice versa case is when stock price increase in value during the time while you are holding them.

Let’s say their market price rose at $14 each and you are holding 1oo stocks. The equitation will be

$1,000 – $1,400 = – $400

You borrowed those stocks at a $10 market price. But despite your expectations, the price increased which means you made a wrong bet. But you have an obligation to return those to the broker, hence you have to buy them back at that higher price. In this transaction, your loss is $400.

Short selling for profit is a method for traders to benefit from a drop in a stock’s price.

Short selling is only possible by borrowing stocks. The problem is they are not always available because when they are you may be faced with a crowd of other traders that already massively trade them.

Is short selling for profit risky?

The short-selling for profit can be risky and questionable. When a huge number of traders choose to short some stocks, their actions will make a great influence on the stock price. With such big traders’ interest, the price will decline sharply. That is not a good situation for companies. Their market value decreases. Sometimes the markets forbid short-selling, especially during the economic crisis.

As I said, short selling is risky for plenty of reasons. You can make a great loss if the stock price increases instead to decrease.

The other reason is that the sharp increase in selected stock may cause traders to cover the position all at once. Moreover, short-covering usually force the price to go up. Then you have a situation that more and more short-sellers are covering their positions and such stock is grasped in a so-called short squeeze. So, like a chain of unfortunate events, right?

The main purpose of short selling for profit is when you borrow the stocks from the broker to sell them instantly and buy them back at a lower price. And return them to the broker. When the whole process is finished you should profit from the difference in stock price.

Risks of short selling

Short selling involves a magnified risk. When you buy a stock you can lose only the money that you have invested. For example, if you bought one share at $300, the maximum you could lose is $300. Stocks can fall to $0 and that is the maximum, there is no stock that may fall below zero. The maximum in your potential loss will stop at your initial capital invested.
In short selling, you can potentially lose an infinite amount of money. Stock can increase its value for an infinite time to an inconstant price. So, you’ll have an infinite loss.
For example, let’s say you enter a short-selling at $200, and suddenly the stock price increases by 300% to $800. You’re obliged to buy the stock back and return them at $800, essentially losing 400% of your capital. actually, you are in incredible debt.

Just be careful when you bet against stock price.

16th August 2019
Don’t buy stocks on a dip

Many say the strategy is to “buy a dip”, but can it really lead to success? There are so many opposing opinions.

By Guy Avtalyon

Don’t buy stocks on the dip says UBS Group AG. It is a Swiss multinational investment bank. While analysts at Goldman Sachs Securities Division advised: “Buy bitcoin on the dip” for stocks it is a straight way to a loss.

“Buy the dip” was a good plan for the bull market, but analysts at UBS addressed to stock investors:

“A world where leading indicators are accelerating is generally one where a correction in equities is an opportunity for investors and ‘buying the dip’ gets rewarded. In contrast, today’s backdrop with PMIs (purchasing managers indexes) in the low 50s and rates arguing for further declines often results in buying the dip being a losing proposition,” addressed strategists Francois Trahan and Samuel Blackman, in a Tuesday.

This announcement is quite strange because dip buyers are still making a profit.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.44% increased more above 370 points Tuesday. This increment came after the U.S. said it would pause imposing tariffs on some imports from China.

The S&P 500 SPX, +1.48% climbed 1.5%. The Dow is depressed 2.2% for the month, and the S&P 500 is 1.8% below in comparison to the previous month.

Trahan and Blackman have a different interpretation of the current market conditions.

What is buying on a dip

It is a losing proposition.

They said the historical records covering the last nine economic cycles, reveals that buy-the-dip works the best when leading economic indicators, like PMIs (private mortgage insurance), are accelerating.

The analysts said that buying-the-dip had a virtually excellent history. They call it the “risk-on” period. However, it is followed by the “risk-off” period. When PMIs fell under 50, labeled the “risk-aversion” period, dip-buying has poor benefits, they said.

Don’t buy stocks on a dip the analysts said

They said that defining the period of the cycle is just one piece of a three-item checklist. They also explained the perfect risk-reward scenario. It happens when the “risk-on” period is followed by interest rates, that carries an increase in the price/earnings ratio, so the earnings opportunity is promising.

Today, the potential dip buyers are 0-for-3, they explained. In other words, we are witnesses of the “risk-off” period, but the companies earnings opportunity has declined.

They also estimated interest rates.

They were looking at yields with an 18-month lag.

Their conclusion is: “the path laid by interest rates 18 months prior to today shows that there is now tightening in the pipeline, and it’s more likely we experience multiple contractions than expansion in the months ahead.”

Multiple expansion points the readiness of investors to pay more for a dollar of earnings. And they pointed out that the risk/reward for buying the dip “extremely poor”.

As you can see, analysts from Investment bank Goldman Sachs has advised investors to capitalize on the new dip and buy bitcoin.

The bank stated that its short-term target for bitcoin is $13,971. It also suggested to investors to buy Bitcoin on any dips in the current situation. But, don’t buy stocks on the dip, says UBS Group AG.

There is a difference.

15th August 2019
Bear Market profit! How to Make the Profit on the Bear Market?

2 min read

The bear market is here. Now is the time to focus on how bad this bear market can be. But also, how can you make a profit during the Bear market period. The questions exploded, and negative consequences are extensive and serious. But it isn’t impossible to make the profit over the bear market.

The investors and advisers are still focused on holding stocks. That means they are not prepared for the destructive emotions that come from this panic-crash.

How they could be when is the time of the bear market and their goal is to make the profit?

Hopefully, the market does not drop.

But there is a considerable risk now. Maybe the best philosophy is to be prepared for a disaster than to count that the worst will not happen.

Yes, we know. The Bear markets are brutal when they hit. That know any stock investor who was invested in stocks during 1973–1975, 2000–2002, or 2008.

The very first fact is that fortunately, bear markets tend to be much shorter than bull markets. If you’re properly diversified your portfolio, you can get through this period. And not to have much damage.

How?

If you are an agile investor, bear markets can provide opportunities to boost your portfolio. It can lay the base for long-term wealth.

Here are some ways to make bear markets very profitable.

First of all, don’t let yourself down, even when the market is down. Stay calm and focused.

The big truth is that in the bear market, the stocks of all companies tend to go down. Where is the catch? How to make some profit from this?

Bad stocks tend to stay down. Yes?

But good stocks tend to recover and back on the growth path.

So, the strategy is clear.

If the stock of a profitable company goes down, that is a buying opportunity.

Remember this!

Let’s say a few words about the second opportunity during the Bear market.

You have to look at the dividends! A dividend comes from a company’s net income. It is an important fact. Contrary, the stock’s price is determined by buying and selling in the stock market.

Say the some company’s stock price goes down but the company is strong yet, still earning a profit, and still paying a dividend.

It is a good opportunity for those seeking dividend income.

If you are one of them, you have to buy.

A bear market comes in tough economic times. It reveals who has too much debt to deal with. But also, who is doing a good job of managing their debt.

We are talking about the bond rating.

In this circumstance, the bond rating becomes valuable. The bond rating is a picture of a company’s creditworthiness.

The ratings of AAA, AA, and A are considered kind of investment-grade. The lower ratings are Bs or Cs.

A rating of AAA is the highest rating. This mark signifies that the agency believes that the company has achieved the highest level of creditworthiness. Therefore, it is the least risky to invest in.

If you find a stock whose company has a bond rating of AAA, that is good to buy!

Using ETFs with your stocks can be a good way to add diversification and use a sector rotation approach. Different sectors perform well during different times of the slump and flow of the economic or business cycle.

Do you remember the rule: Never put all eggs in one basket.

So, rotate your sector.

Bear markets are tough for good stocks. But they’re brutal to bad stocks.

When a bad stock goes down, it often goes into a more critical decline. Because more and more investors look into it and discover the company’s shaky finances.

What you have to do?

Short it?

Going short is a risky way to bet on a stock going down. If you’re wrong and the stock goes up, you have the potential for unlimited losses.

A better way to speculate on a stock falling is to buy long-dated put options. That gives you the potential to profit if you’re right but limits your losses if you’re wrong.

During the bear market, you can make the profit by using the margin. It can be useful. Using the margin is wisely, it can be a powerful tool. The great tactic is o acquire dividend-paying stocks after they’ve corrected.

A margin is using borrowed funds from your broker to buy securities.

Keep in mind, you don’t like to use margin before the stock corrected or declined.

Using margin when the stock is high and it subsequently falls, can be dangerous. But using margin to buy the stock after a notable fall is less risky.

Buy call option if you want to make the profit during the bear market!

Well, it is about speculating, not investing. Remember, a call option is a derivative, and it has a finite shelf life; it can expire worthless if you’re not careful.

The good side of a call option is that it can be low-cost to buy. And it tends to be a very cheap vehicle at the bottom, when is a bear market. This is your chance!

If the stock price sink, but the company is in good condition, betting on a rebound can be profitable.

How can you still make the profit?

For example, you can write a covered call option. Also, you can write a put option to generate income.

But the most important is to stay calm when the bear market starts. That will provide you with more chances to make the profit.

If you don’t plan to retire ten years from now or even more, a bear market shouldn’t make you nervous.

Good stocks will survive bear markets. After that period, they’re ready for the next bull market.

So, try not to get quickly out of stock. If you want to make the profit on the bear market territory.

Just keep monitoring the company performance for growing sales and profits. If the company looks fine, then hang on. Keep collecting your dividend and hold the stock.

This bear market had a fairly recognizable trading picture. We had the opportunity to see it before.

So, be patient and take your advantages!

Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

19th December 2018
Profitable Forex Trading By Using Two Approaches

Forex is short for foreign exchange, but the actual asset class we are referring to is currencies.

By Guy Avtalyon

If you want to be a profitable forex trader and have profitable forex trading, you have to follow some rules. You have to either win more often than you lose. The must is to win more on each trade than you lose.

Or better yet; do both.

Doing both is truly the hallmark of a professional trader. It can be very tricky though. As you are a new trader, it is probably best to focus on one approach. See where you can go from there.

I want to show you the ins and outs of each approach and help you decide which method suits you the best.

What is the relationship between the win rate and reward ratio in forex trading?

Before everything, you have to understand the relationship between a trader’s win rate, their reward ratio, and profitability. Assuming a trader risks an average of 10 pips on a trade to make 10 pips of profit. They will need to get 50% of their trades right in order to breakeven. Only if they win more than 50% of their trades, then we can speak about profitable forex trading.

What happens if you risk 10 pips to make 20?

You are trader forex trading with a positive reward ratio and therefore you will not have to win as many trades to breakeven or turn a profit. The opposite is true for a trader who trades with a negative reward ratio e.g. risks 10 pips to make 5. Such a trader will have to win more than 50% of their trades to breakeven and even more to turn a profit. There is an inverse relationship between a trader’s win rate and reward ratio. The larger your reward ratio, the fewer trades you have to win, and the more trades you win, the less you need to win on each trade.

What is profitable forex trading?

Forex trading with a positive reward ratio is a good place to start as a beginner. Why?

Because chances are if you are just starting out, you don’t quite yet have a talent for accurately predicting markets. Say your goal is to make twice as much as you are risking on a winning trade. We have to do some math. If you have such a goal, then your breakeven rate drops all the way down from 50% to 33% and any wins above 33% are pure profit.

If you aim for 3 units of risk (3R) on a profitable trade, your breakeven requirement drops even further to 25%.

This advice is offered by market makers with educational background. This advice is reliable, but what they ignore to tell new traders is that it’s actually harder to make 2 x risk (2R) than it is to make 1 x risk (1R). Anyway, this approach is still a great place to start as a new trader, we just believe in an open and honest approach to forex education.

What is forex trading with a positive win rate?

Trying to score profitability via a positive win rate isn’t the best idea for new traders, because you are not yet experienced enough to get the market right more than half the time. Aiming for one unit of risk in profit has a higher chance of success than aiming for two. The other option is trading with a negative reward ratio, such as aiming for less than a single unit of risk on a profitable trade.

But there is the problem with trading forex with a negative reward ratio: the more your reward ratio drops, the more trades you need to win to turn a profit. If for example, you only aim for half a unit of risk on a winning trade, your breakeven rate rises from 50% all the way up to 66.67%. Then again, there is a higher probability of profitable forex trading and success on trades with negative reward ratios.

Automated systems and forex signals

When looking at automated systems and forex signals, you often see systems that appear great because they are forex trading with extreme negative reward ratios. These systems will risk a hundred pips or more in order to make 5-10 pips. This can work for a long time, but eventually, volatility picks up and the stop losses start getting hit. Every stop-loss that triggers wipes out a bunch of winning trades and you start seeing sharp declines in the system’s equity curve. The characteristic of these systems is win rates above 90%. If you see a system with a win rate that high, look a little deeper. You’ll like to examine how exactly this unbelievable win rate happens.

Currency is known as an “active trader” opportunity. This type of opportunity suits brokers. That means they earn more due to the agility that accompanies active trading but it is also promoted as leveraged trading. Hence it is easier for a forex trader to open an account with a little money than it is required for trading stocks.

How to use forex trading as a hedge

You can use currency trading to hedge your stock portfolio too.

For instance, if some trader builds a stock portfolio in a country where there is potential for the stock to increase in value. But there is a downside risk in terms of the currency. For example, you might own the stock portfolio and short the dollar against another currency such as the Swiss franc or euro.

This means, the portfolio value will increase, and the negative effect of the declining dollar will be neutralized. This is good for those investors outside the U.S. who will eventually repatriate profits back to their own currencies.
With this profile in mind, this suits the best day trading or swing trading.

The other strategy of trading currencies is to understand the fundamentals and long-term benefits.

It is useful to a trader when a currency is trending in a specific direction. That means it offers a positive interest differential. Hence, it provides a return on the investment plus an appreciation in currency value.

This forex trading strategy is a “carry trade.”

Good timing is the essence of profitable trading. In both cases, as in all other trading activities, the trader must know their own personal attributes. In order not to violate good trading habits with bad and impulsive behavior patterns.

7th October 2018
How Do Dividend Paying Stocks Work?

Dividends may be a sign of good stock but never invest in some stock just because of dividends it pays.

By Guy Avtalyon

The dividend is like interest on a loan. A company that earns real money every year operates with it on three options. First, the company can reinvest earnings to make new products, find more customers, or to make business more efficient. Some companies can buy back their stock in order to own more of the company and more profits. The third way is to return some of the money to shareholders through dividends. It is very important to understand how dividends work. Stocks that pay dividends can be great to hold.

Dividends are like interest on a loan. Assume you loan your relative $1000 for a year at 5% interest. You expect to get back your $1000 plus that 5%, which is $50 more. The dividend is that except the $1000 stays in the company because you still own part of it. It’s your part of the profit the company made.

Unfortunately, not all companies will pay dividends. Some companies don’t make the profit and they can’t pay out anything. Other companies flow all of their money back into the company to grow faster. The rule is there is no rule. What works for one business doesn’t work for others.

Is investing in dividends a good choice?

I know some people who like to receive dividend checks. For instance, some reliable companies may payout every three months. Even if the share price has small moves every year, investors still make money from these dividend payments and they don’t have to sell their shares to get that money. The check comes at the end of a certain period.

This money gets paid to all shareholders, no matter how many shares they own. The retiree who owns one share of some company gets the dividend in the same way as the wealthy hedge fund manager. The reliability of dividends gives them attractivity in investment.

Do Stock Pay Dividends?

High dividend-paying stocks have rates of 5%, 10%, or even more.

Why they are so high? It is simple to explain. Let’s see this simplified example.

A company with a share price of $100 which pays a dividend of $1 per share every year has a dividend yield of 1%, while a company with a share price of $10 which pays out $1 per share every year has a dividend yield of 10%.

Notice that the price you pay for a stock and the growth of the business over time determine how much money you make on that stock. Keep in mind there’s no shortcut to investing little money with high returns. Unfortunately, but that’s true.

The easiest way to find if a stock pays dividends is to look at any stock research site. You will find a dollar amount for the latest dividend announced, the annual amount paid, and the current yield. Always check the dates. The point is that stock may pay out one quarter and not the next.

Is it profitable to invest in the high dividend-paying stocks?

High dividend-paying stocks are paying more than the average dividend rate. Companies that pay high dividends are considered as good companies. But they may have some other reason like to attract investors to drive up the share price. It also may be a sign that the share price has dramatically gone down recently. Sometimes this means the stock is on sale or that the company is in trouble. You can’t know this just by looking at the share price or how high is the dividend amount. You have to have better information about the company’s business and its current financials.

The company must choose to pay a dividend and the amount paid may vary. Not all companies will regularly raise the number of its dividend payments.

Is investing in stocks that pay dividends a good strategy?

Yes, especially if you want regular cash coming in reliably. Reliability is the keyword because dividends aren’t guaranteed. You still have to do your research. It is better to buy great companies, not just stocks that pay the highest dividends per share.

High dividend stocks are not necessarily a good investment. Pay attention do they pay them every year, every quarter or does a certain company follow a regular schedule for the rise of its payment amount. It is possible to make more from dividends every year per share than you initially paid for the stock. Keep in mind this the tricky part of a dividend yield of stocks; it’s always calculated relative to the current price, not what you paid. A company that pays a huge dividend is a warning sign. How does the company plan to maintain its payment strategy? Is this a temporary trick to raise the stock price to fake levels? Always think about reliability.

Does value investors make money from high dividend-paying stocks?

Dividends are excellent. And value investing looks for underpriced stocks.

“What are the best stocks to invest in?” or “What are the reasons to invest in a company?”, can be the questions you ask yourself. In that case, dividends may be a sign of a good stock. But not all great stocks pay dividends, indeed. Some never do. Some pay from time to time. It depends.

If you pick a powerful company that gives you a check every quarter and if the price is right relative to the value, then you have no problem. That gem belongs to you.

18th September 2018