Tag: investing

All investing related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

  • The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming
    The packaged-food giant reached rock bottom and positive signs are unfortunately weak. They are not enough to warrant a buy right now.

    The Kraft Heinz Company (NASDAQ: KHC) reported third-quarter 2019 financial results on October 31. The company reported lower net sales and higher input costs. So, the third quarter performances for this company were a lot below their potential but still, the company showed growth in comparison to the first six months this year.

    Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio said: “We are making good progress in identifying and addressing the root causes of past performance, as well as setting our strategic direction. Although there is still much work ahead, we’re encouraged by our improving performance, and are even more confident in our ability to turn around the Company and set a path of long term growth and profitability.”

    The Kraft Heinz Company results

    Net sales were $6.1 billion, and it was 4.8% below than it was in the same period last year.
    Net income increased to $899 million and diluted EPS increased to $0.74. Adjusted EBITDA declined 7.8% to $1.5 billion. The drop was caused by the drop in the United States and Canada, but there are higher overall corporate expenses also.
    The Board of Directors of the Kraft Heinz Company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share of common stock. It will be payable on December 13, 2019.
    The KHC stock was traded at $30.54 on Friday, November 22, which is an increase of 0.99%.

    The Kraft Heinz Company Is Bottoming

    Should you buy the Kraft Heinz Company stock?

    The analysts offering 12-month price predictions for Kraft Heinz Co have a median target of $32.00. Their high valuation is at $38.00 and a low at $23.00. The median shows a 4.78% rise from the current price.

    The recommendation is to hold stock in Kraft Heinz Co. 

    But the other group of analysts is pretty much sure that the Kraft Heinz stock couldn’t have good returns. That’s the reason why they claim that this stock is a bad and high-risk long-term investment. Today’s quote (Nov 25) for Kraft Heinz is $30.53 which is lower than on Friday. 

     

    Traders-Paradise opinion

    Having the current price of KHC stock in our mind and with the knowledge that the stock price had a downtrend for the past 1 year, we in Traders-Paradise are not sure is this stock is good as a long-term investment. We are close to thinking that this stock could easily drop significantly in the future hitting a decline of over 100% and to end up worthless. So, we suggest staying away from this stock if you are seeking a new addition to your investment portfolio. This is important especially if you are a new player on the market and don’t have enough experience. 

    This stock is trading in bear markets, which is harder for new traders.

    But if your plan is to buy and hold Kraft Heinz stock for a short time, for example, the next 10 days or two weeks, it can be a good choice. As we can see, the stock price could hit around $35 in the next several days.

     

    Bottom line

    The price line shows the possibility of zigzag running to the end of this year. After the end of this year, we are afraid that this stock will gain further declines.

    Our opinion comes from the suspicion that the company is not able to answer the challenges of predicting consumer demands. In its latest report, we couldn’t find that the company is ready to offer new products or to react to rivals’ improvements.
    The Kraft Heinz Company survives 150 years of challenging and produced some of the products well-known over the world. Yes, it is one of the largest global food companies, but the new era is already here and the company has to catch the moment.
    The point is that General Mills or Nestle are better choices in our opinion.
    We can recognize some possible upward movements, but they are weak and don’t provide enough reasons to buy this stock now.

     

  • The Top Winners And Top Losers In The Market

    The Top Winners And Top Losers In The Market

    The Top Winners And Top Losers In The Market
    Good and bad news may have a great influence on the stock price
    These two stocks show both sides, winning and losing on the market

    Top winners and top losers last week in the stock market is easy to find but what lies behind sometimes looks like a tricky part.
    For example, EyeGate Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (EYEG) is one of the winners last week. But what did make it become a winner? 

    The news about the high quality of its ocular bandage gel eye drops is able to provoke investors’ sentiment and confidence in the company. What did that news show us? The company is investing in research and development and improve its products. 

    And shares rose by more than 90%.

    The news that the company’s innovative eye-drop bandage worked better than the usual kinds of care. Its bandage contact lens, for the patients in need of corneal wound repair, is better than the others. EyeGate intends to submit a new application to the Food and Drug Administration in the first half of 2020.
    EyeGate CEO Stephen From said: “If approved, it will be the first product indicated to repair corneal defects, as well as the first prescription hyaluronic acid eye drops in the U.S.,” stated in a release. The company is expecting additional data this week. 

    And what happened? 

    The stock price jumped on good news.EyeGate shares rose on data for eye treatment data.

    The Top Winners And Top Losers In The Market

    Top winners and top losers last week are always the subject of investors’ attention. Yes, the stock price may jump on bad news too as well to drop on a good. Traders-Paradise wrote about it already.

     

    Let’s go a bit deeper in top losers. One of them is Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG).

    Pure Storage (PSTG) stock dropped Friday after the company reported Q3 results on Thursday. The results missed Wall Street estimates. Pure Storage is a provider of data system technology. On Thursday last week, they reported an adjusted profit of 13 cents/share but Wall Street expected a profit of 9 cents. That was good but revenue of $428.4 million missed the estimation of $440 million. The company’s revenue was $11.4 million below estimation.

    The stock price dropped despite the fact that the company’s revenue grew 15% in comparison to the same period last year. The problem arose due to the fact that it was the slowest growth over 4 years.

    Pure Storage stock dropped 15.1%, closing at $16.86 on Friday.

    Top gainers often continue to rise and reach new highs with strong fundamentals. When a stock continues reaching new highs it’s essential to pay attention since there might be a retracement.

    Bottom line

    What Traders-Paradise thinks about those two stocks, the top winners and top losers?

    News reports about EYEG stock have been trending positive lately. That may easily cause optimism among investors and hence, the good news is likely to affect the stock price rising in the near future. So, this stock has a BUY signal. 

    EyeGate Pharmaceuticals, Inc stock is a good long-term investment. If you are seeking stocks with stable returns, this one can be a beneficial investment choice. EyeGate Pharmaceuticals, Inc was traded at $7.090 last Friday. We are expecting a further increase in the next years. This stock may reach $14 in the next 4 years. If you invest $1.000 today you may have $2.000 at the end of that period since the revenue is expected to be about 100%.
    This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 26.89 million shares bought and sold for approximately $453.37 million.

    On the other hand, Pure Storage, Inc stock can be a bad long-term investment and high-risk investment option.
    Pure Storage, Inc was traded at $16.860 on Friday last week. It dropped from $19.85 and that marked a fall of 3 days in a row. Volume has grown in the last day by 21.42 million shares but on dropping prices. The Traders-Paradise opinion is the stock will continue to fall in the days ahead and your investment may be decreased in the future. 

     

  • Levi Strauss On The Market Again

    Levi Strauss On The Market Again

    Levi Strauss On The Market Again
    Levi Strauss & Co. trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LEVI.
    This famous brand promises to be a good investment

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Levi Strauss is riding again.
    We are sure you have several of Levi’s products. When say Levi’s you mean eternity. Levi’s jeans is always IN. This denim cloth producer went public in March this year. The jeans on the trading floor. Sounds good even if it didn’t change the dress-code there. Actually, that decision was the second appearance of Levi’s on the stock market. 

    Firstly, the company was listed in the 1970s. But 15 years later, the company was taken private. Descendants of Strauss, well-known the Haas family bought it out. In March this year, that decision was changed and Levi’s is listed again on the NYSE under the ticker symbol LEVI. Levi’s started trading publicly for the second time in its 165-year history.

    At that time, the shares were priced at $17 and grew 32% in the first trading day. On the closing bell, the price was $22.41 and the valuation was over $8.5 billion.

    The LEVI price history

    The LEVI price history isn’t long but we can see that it had a few good trading weeks after went public. The price dropped in August and was traded at about $16. In October, the price increased to almost $20 but dropped again at $17 and stabilized in that area.

     

    On November 21 the LEVY was traded at $16.57 which was an increase of 0,20% from the previous day.

     

    The experts’ forecast for Levi Strauss & Co.’s median target at $23.50, with the highest price at $28.00 and the lowest at $18.00. That would be a 41.82% rise from the current price of $16.57. Their estimation shows a buy signal for Levi Strauss & Co. stock.

    The forward P/E ratio is 15.49 and P/E growth is 3.79, the dividend yield is 3.62%.

    Levi Strauss & Co. posted its quarterly earnings report on October 8th. The company reported $0.31EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimates of $0.27. Levi Strauss & Co. earned $1.45 million during the quarter.  The company had a return on equity of 37.44% and a net margin of 6.85%. The revenue was up 4.3% related to the same quarter in the previous year. Levi Strauss & Co. issued its revenue guidance of $5.882-5.909 billion.

    Selling of Levi Strauss & Co. stock

    The company’s main shareholder Walter J. Haas sold 73,845 shares on Wednesday, November 20th at an average price of $16.53, for $1,220,657.85.
    Previously, on November 13th, Walter J. Haas sold 37,290 shares of the company at an average price of $16.96, for  $632,438.40.
    Two days earlier, on November 11th, Walter J. Haas sold 22,321 shares of stock at an average price of $17.06, for $380,796.26.
    On November 8th, Walter J. Haas sold 50,749 shares at an average price of $17.10, for $867,807.90.

    Hedge funds have new holding positions in the Levi’s

    Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft FI got a new position in Levi Strauss & Co. at approximately $253,000.
    Acadian Asset Management LLC took a new position at around $174,000.
    Parallel Advisors LLC took a new position at approximately $96,000.
    Aperio Group LLC took a new position at around $62,000.
    NumerixS Investment Technologies Inc got a new position at about $58,000.
    Institutional investors hold 9.21% of the Levi Strauss & Co. stock.

    Experts’ ratings on LEVI

    Bank of America boosted its price target on LEVI from $20.00 to $22.00 and marked the stock as a “buy” in October.
    Guggenheim repeated a “buy” rating in September.
    ValuEngine upgraded Levi Strauss & Co. from a “sell” rating to a “hold” in October.
    Levi Strauss & Co. currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and a  price target of $24.43.

     

    About Levi Strauss

    The company is founded by Levi Strauss, an immigrant from Bavaria who came to San Francisco in 1850 during the Gold Rush. He brought dry goods for selling to the miners. he recognized the miners’ need for durable pants and hired a tailor to sew clothes out of tent canvas. Denim came later.
    A partnership of three Strauss brothers was built in 1853.
    After Strauss died the leadership of the company passed to the Haas family. By the 1960s, Levi’s jeans became popular globally. In 1971, when the company went public it was operating in 50 countries.

    Levi Strauss & Co designs, and markets jeans, casual dress, pants, skirts, jackets, footwear, and accessories for women, men, and children under the brands: Levi’s, Dockers, Signature by Levi Strauss & Co, and Denizen. The company also authorizes Levi’s and Dockers’ trademarks for many product categories, like footwear, belts, wallets and bags, outerwear, sweaters, dress shirts, kids wear, sleepwear, and hosiery.

    Levi’s is a famous brand but the stock needs a price accumulation before it keeps the advance. Anyway, this is the stock to be watched. Its trends in Europe are strong, rising at 20% a year for the past two years and 14% in 2019. Levi proceeds to diversify its distribution in Europe and it is now 50% direct-to-consumer sales. But the U.S. sales are down and now it represents 30% of Levi’s overall sales.

  • Builders FirstSource Inc. Is Good Long-Term Investment

    Builders FirstSource Inc. Is Good Long-Term Investment

    Builders FirstSource Inc. Is Good Long-Term Investment
    Builders FirstSource Inc is a good long-term investment with the possibility to produce almost 30% of revenue

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Builders FirstSource Inc BLDR stock is, according to analysts, rated as a buy. In November it was upgraded from a hold rating.

    This third-quarter earnings season, many companies reported better earnings per share and beat the experts’ estimations and expectations. There were a lot of outperformed stocks and investors are interested to add them in their portfolios because they want strong returns. But which one or few to choose? The market noise is enormous and it so hard for individual investors to make such a decision.

    Builders FirstSource Inc.

    Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is currently recommended as a buy. This stock is trading with a P/E ratio of 12.74. Meaning, at current prices, you have to pay $12.74 for every $1 in trailing yearly profits. Over the past 52 weeks, BLDR’s P/E ratio has been as high 25.65 and low 10.15. But value investors use the P/S ratio as a metric also. You can find the P/S ratio when divide the stock price by sales.

    On the last day of October Builders FirstSource issued its Q3 earnings report.

    Builders FirstSource’s quarterly earnings were $0.72 per share, meaning it beat experts’ expectations. The earnings per share were $0,67 for the same quarter last year.

    So, we can easily see earnings of 20%. Surprised? For the previous quarter,  it was supposed that this company would report earnings of $0.48 per share. But it delivered earnings of $0.63, showing an increase of 31.25%. For the last 12 months or 4 quarters, Builders FirstSource has exceeded consensus EPS estimates 4 times.

    The company posted revenues of $1.98 billion for the third quarter. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.12 billion. The company has beaten consensus revenue estimates two times for the last four quarters.

    “Our strong third-quarter growth in sales volume and margins combined with our focus on working capital management generated another quarter of strong cash flow.  We were also pleased to deploy capital on an accretive acquisition, while at the same time, further improving our ratio of net financial debt to Adjusted EBITDA to 2.5 times,” said CFO Peter Jackson.

    BLDR stock is currently trading at $25,36.

    What’s next for the Builders FirstSource stock?

    The tricky question indeed. The price made a slight decline of 0,02% yesterday. You can use one simple measure: the company’s earnings outlook. You have to examine the current earnings expectations given by the experts but most importantly you have to check how their predictions have changed.

    The stock is bullish and Traders-Paradise opinion is the price can go up from $25.50 to $27 over the next 12 months. So, we can say it is profitable to invest in Builders FirstSource stock since the long-term earning potential is about 7.00% in the same period.

    The company’s ABOUT

    The company is a supplier and manufacturer of building materials, components, and construction services. 

    Builders FirstSource provides an integrated solution to its customers offering manufacturing, supply, and installation of building products such as windows, doors, and millwork lines.

    Its products are the factory-built roof and floor trusses, wall panels and stairs, vinyl windows, millwork and trim, and engineered wood designed, cut, and constructed. It constructs interior and exterior doors. 

    The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

    Should you buy the Builders FirstSource stock?

    Traders-Paradise predicts a future increase in values of Builders FirstSource, Inc (BLDR) stock. If you want to hold stock with good return, Builders FirstSource, Inc might be a good option for you. Builders FirstSource, Inc quote is $25.36 at 2019/11/20. Based on previous performances this stock may be worth up to $32 with revenue of almost 28% after a five years period. If you invest $10.000 today in this company, after 5 years, it is possible to have about $12.800.

     

  • Crocs Clogs Of Two Digits

    Crocs Clogs Of Two Digits

    Crocs Clogs Of Two Digits
    Crocs have sold more than 300 million pairs of shoes in more than 90 countries.
    Crocs is traded on the NASDAQ stock market under the ticker symbol CROX. Market Cap:  $2.44 B Current Price: $35.51

    Crocs reported Q3 on October, 30. The company reported revenues of $313 million, which represents the new third-quarter record for Crocs or an increase of 20% – 21%. It also reported reducing revenues due to currencies of $3.0 million and reduced revenues of $4.0 million due to closing stores. But the wholesale revenues increased by 25.4%, e-commerce sales rose 28.2%, and retail comparable store sales increased by 12.5%. Gross margin was 52.4%, in the same period last year it was 53.3%. Adjusted gross margin increased 30 basis points compared to last year’s third quarter. 

    Crocs had, according to the Q3 report, adjusted earnings per share of 57 cents. The experts’ estimation was 40 cents. The company’s shares were up more than 10% to nearly $37 after reporting. The current price is $35.51. CEO Andrew Rees said, “Our Americas business delivered exceptional growth, driven in part by another highly successful back-to-school season.”
    The great results produced a tendency for Crocs to boost its full-year guidance to 11%–12% revenue growth over 2018.

     

    “The Crocs brand momentum continues to gain pace, and for 2020 we anticipate revenue growth over 2019 of 12% to 14%,” said Rees.

    Crocs have closed more than 150 stores over the past several years. The competition was very strong. It has also focused its works on its Classic clog, profiting from the shift toward more casual and comfortable footwear. 

    Is Crocs a good investment?

    The investors should be enthusiastic about the Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX).
    Crocs is in the center of a strong increasing trend in the short term. The stock is assumed to increase 54.16% in the next 3 months and, so the price to climb between $52.32 and $62.85, expect experts. Moreover, they are seeing only positive signals for this company and strong buy signals from the short and long-term moving averages.
    A general buy signal is supported by the relationship of those two, the short-term average is above the long-term average.

    Where the problem may arise?

    The support level is between $35.42 and $32.45. If the price falls under these levels it will be a sell signal. For now, it is a strong buy signal and an indication of additional gains. The consideration may occur because the volume fell on November, 12 notwithstanding growing prices. This shows a divergence between volume and price and it may be an unexpected warning. 

    But some experts see a great potential of holding this stock in the long run. Their estimations show a possible fantastic 152% profit in 18 months. The investment analysts think the Crocs stock is good to buy. 

    Important info about Crocs

    Crocs, Inc. is a worldwide recognized as a leading producer of casual footwear with a broad portfolio of all-season colorful pairs of shoes. Crocs were first exposed at the 2002 Fort Lauderdale Boat Show.

    Famous clogs were originally developed as boat shoes produced by a Canadian Company, Foam Creations, Inc. The new shoes were molded into the shape of a human foot. Just a few years later they have become practical footwear in households and professions. The ugly trend overflowed the world. You cannot love Crocs because of its aesthetics. These ugly clogs made a trap for the brand. The producer claimed that only one pair will last a lifetime. The fashion industry surviving thanks to many and frequent shifts and this kind of thinking was so far from the industry. But that has never slowed Crocs down. The slippers wipe-clean and non-slip build sent them straight to kitchens, hospitals, everywhere the workers have to stay on their feet for a long time. 

    It went public in 2006

    The company had already adopted Crocs, Inc. In its presentation to investors, the company announced plans that requested for new footwear models, developed distribution in the US and over the world. 

    As investors’ interest in Crocs expanded, the company was able to increase its asking price and the number of shares on the market. Firstly, the plan was to sell 9.9 million shares at $13 to $15 per share. Crocs managed to add a bit more than a million shares and hit its asking price to the $19 to $20 range. Investors liked the company since the Crocs had extraordinary growth and a product that had a global appeal.

    Today nothing has changed. Crocs is one of the most popular producers of slippers. But that isn’t the only product they have: clogs, boots, other kinds of footwear, but with a common characteristic: comfortable, long-last, colorful and funny.
    The stock should be watched closely, it can produce a great profit.

     

  • How to Find Big Opportunities in Investing

    How to Find Big Opportunities in Investing

    How to Find Big Opportunities in Investing

    Everyone would like to know how to find big opportunities in investing. That’s the point, right? One of the best ways is to notify where traders are overreacting to the news.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    To find big opportunities in investing, other traders’ extreme fears will help you. For example, traders reacted to news that brokers were cutting their fees. But did you notice a massive rise in their stock price? During the past few weeks, online brokerage stock took hits.

    Let’s go step by step. When Charles Schwab announced it would cut all commissions for all trading, E-Trade, Interactive Brokers and TD Ameritrade fell. This news sent brokerage stocks lower because the traders overreacted.

    In that period, for example, TD Ameritrade (AMTD) dropped from $48 to $33. The other brokerages experienced a decline in stock price too. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) fell from nearly $54 to almost $45, Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) dropped from $43 to $35, etc.

    The traders responded to news that brokers are cutting their fees. They had fears about brokerage future without that income and started to sell. But the point is to overcome the fears and recognize the opportunity. When you recognize the bottom in some stocks you actually can see great returns. And let’s take a look at our example again.

    What happened with these stocks a bit more after?

    Charles Schwab moved from $35 to $42, TD Ameritrade moved from $33 to $39, Interactive Brokers stock rose from $45 to $48, etc. How did this happen? There are no tricks. When some stock becomes oversold and gets stretched in one direction too quickly, too far, you will notice bounce back. That is exactly the time when you have to buy the stock. So, you are profiting while others are feeling fears. 

    It is simple to recognize when the stock dropped on extreme fears. How to find those big opportunities in investing?

    Key technical pivot points 

    Bollinger Bands

    Let’s say you noticed that traders picked a moving average of 20 with two regular deviations up and under that average. When a stock reaches or enters the lower zone, you can be sure the stock is oversold.

    RSI and W%R

    Use RSI to confirm the indicators that are higher. The oversold condition will appear when RSI goes to or below its 30-line, also when W%R (Williams’ %R) comes to or up the -80-line the stock is considered to be oversold.

    MACD

    Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is helpful and simple. It helps to confirm the info we get from previously mentioned indicators. MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average). 

    How to identify investment opportunities?

    You will need a bit of magic to find big opportunities in investing.

    These four indicators must be matched with one another if you want this to work. They have to be aligned. And moreover, you don’t want to rely on one indicator. You must have all four.
    So, what we had with brokerages in October this year? Just to be said, we can use other examples, but this is fresh. We saw the stock dropped due to the fees-pricing fight. Though, we saw the precise time of extreme fear and, at the same time opportunity.

    When you see the stock dropped to its lower Bollinger Band, it is a sign that the stock is oversold. Use historical data for that stock and you will find that whenever the lower Bollinger Band is reached or entered the stock turned and bounced back higher from that point.

    Use RSI to find big opportunities in investing

    But you have to check RSI also. Find the confirmation on what Bollinger tells you. If the RSI is a below-set line the stock is oversold. That the confirmation of Bollinger Band’s story. Check this info in historical data to have a sense of how the stock was performing in case it had lower RSI and if the stock moved to its lower Band.
    If you see the stock bounced back higher quickly that is the confirmation and you should buy. 

    And as we mentioned before MACD and Williams’ %R have to confirm the described condition to be sure you can trade with 85% of success.

    Examples of how to find big opportunities in investing

    The list is really endless. Big investments may come fro different fields, different companies. For example, some small but developing company can be a better choice than a famous brand.
    In case you don’t believe this, let’s see what stats tell us. Small companies are the spine of any national economy. That’s the fact. Small companies employ many people, actually the majority. So, it is easy to conclude that the can be a big opportunity to invest in.
    Just keep in mind before you invest in one of them to examine its potential for growth, financial strength. When you go through this process try to find out how passionate management is about business, sometimes that will tell how serious they are about future growth and the company’s future. Especially if you want to invest in some startup.

    Big opportunities in investing can be detected in up to 85% of cases.
    Put all these indicators together with extreme traders’ fears based on news, and you will see how to find big opportunities in investing.

  • Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will merge with PSA Groupe, owner of Peugeot automobiles

    Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Groupe PSA (Peugeot is the largest PSA brand), have agreed to continue a merger. That would form the fourth-largest carmaker in the world. Their boards are working together on a new relationship. The Wall Street Journal reported the companies are moving forward with a merger. Both companies confirmed this news.

    The merger will give shareholders of each group equal ownership in the new entity.

    On Thursday morning both companies stated that their boards have a mandate to finalize the negotiations in the next few weeks, which means FCA will not tie-up with Renault as was thought this summer.

    The merger would create a company with revenues of €170bn, with an operating profit of over €11bn and vehicle sales of 8.7m. That would lead them ahead of General Motors and Hyundai-Kia in sales. The new potential entity would have a market value of between €45-50bn.

    The model of the merger is a 50-50 all-stock.

    PSA is listed on the Euronext Paris stock exchange.

     Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger

    Since 2014, FCA is officially listed on the NYSE.

     

    After the Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Merger 

    When the two companies do a merger, PSA chief executive Carlos Tavares is assumed to lead that new group while John Elkann, Fiat Chrysler’s chairman will hold the same position at the new entity.
    Despite this speed, a final agreement of merger needs time and regulatory scrutiny.

    According to Reuters, a merger between FCA and PSA could build a “$50-billion giant better placed to tackle a host of costly technological and regulatory challenges facing the global auto industry.” Details were not published, but some aspects have known.

    For example, the Journal published that the new company would be “legally domiciled in the Netherlands,” with “operational headquarters in the U.S., France, and Italy.”
    Further details and any influence on employment are not yet transparent. The known fact is that FCA has plans to add nearly 5,000 jobs to the Detroit factory to build SUVs. So, the obvious conclusion is that a merger would eventually help FCA in Detroit.

    It isn’t a secret that the Peugeot Group has plans to re-enter the U.S. market. The merger with FCA would provide it through the Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep/Ram dealer network.
    To adjust the value of the two companies, the PSA shareholders should get about a €3bn dividend from the sale of the 46% stake in parts carmaker Faurecia.
    FCA shareholders will receive a €5.5bn ($6.12 billion) cash payout and incomes from the sale of its robot-making Comau unit, estimated at between €200m to €300m.

    New headquarters

    The new group will be based in the Netherlands, a neutral location, where FCA is domiciled and listed in Paris, Milan and New York. The Financial Times reported the FCA will “continue to maintain a significant presence in the current operating head-office locations in France, Italy and the US.”

    Around €3.7bn in predicted annual run-rate synergies are targeted, 80% during the first 4 years. The total one-time cost of achieving the synergies is estimated at €2.8bn, the two companies revealed in the statement.

    Bottom line

    Carmakers are facing large investments in electric cars. That is the reason behind the merge. Costs. This merger would create one of the biggest carmakers groups in the world with well-known brands Citroen, Jeep, Opel, Alfa Romeo, Peugeot, and Vauxhall. This has the potential to be a true rival to Volkswagen, Toyota and the Renault-Nissan Alliance.

    The merger of those two companies looks as wise given the global competition, capital power, and industry complexity from autonomous technologies.

    This could create a global automotive leader.

  • Real Return On Investment

    Real Return On Investment

    Return On Investment

    Return on Investment or ROI, measures the profitability of an investment, for every amount you put in, what profit can you expect.

    Return on investment is a measure practiced to estimate the efficiency of your investment. Also, you can use it to compare the efficiency of different investments. ROI seeks to measure the volume of return on investment in comparison to the costs. So, to calculate ROI, you have to divide the return of your investment by the cost. The result will be displayed in a percentage or a ratio.

    How to Calculate Return On Investment

    ROI formula is:

    ROI = (Current value of investment – the cost of investment)/cost of investment

    Compounding interest sounds like alchemy for many new investors, but ROI is true magic. Particularly when your money rises each year.
    Let’s say you invest $2,000 at 5% interest. You’ll have $3,500 in interest after 15 years. Your initial capital would be grown by $1,500 of interest. But if you invest at a 5% annual compound interest, you will have about $4,158.

    But where is the magic?
    The magic comes now. What if you can earn a higher rate of return?

    What if you invest at 8% or 10%? This can be really important because it is your money and you would like to watch it grow.

    True magic lies in math.

    Let’s say you have an investment goal and also, you know how long you want to hold your investment. For example, you would like to sell some of your stocks after 2 years. Assume you invested $2,000 in the stock. And you did that. You sold your stock for, let’s say, $3,000. Great! You made $1,000 in profit. That is 50% of return which is amazing if you want to calculate it quick and dirty,  and incorrectly. But, you need to factor in your liabilities and annual inflation rate to calculate the real return on investment. Okay, you have to pay a capital gain taxes, for example, it is $150, so you ended at $2,850 which is still good. Yes, your return will not be 50% it is 42.5% after you pay capital gain taxes. Oh, wait! Where is the inflation? Yes, you have to calculate the inflation over those two years. Let’s say the inflation rate is 2.5%.

    $2,850/(1.025×1.025) = $2,713

    Your real value return will be 35.65%.  It is less than 50% of return what you may be expected but it’s still good.
    It was a bit complicated but correct, which is the most important. And it is for two years. Do your own math for longer periods.

    Several things you have to keep in mind.

    A good return on stocks has to surpass inflation, taxes, and fees. Only in that way, you’ll be able to build your wealth.
    Use ROI to compare investments even if they’re not related. It isn’t the same if you are buying blue-chip stock or small-cap. In short, everything is different. But, if you compare only ROI may provide you a clear insight into where you want to direct.

    ROI can be used in combination with the rate of return, which takes into account the time frame, which we did. You can use a net present value or NPV, which we did to calculate the real rate of return.
    The usual return on investment for the majority of investors is about 2-3%. It isn’t great. But if you keep your money in a bank account you will have a negative return, after you factor and pay all taxes and inflation. 

    A  good return on investment is 10-12% per year

    You can beat the market. That is everyone’s goal, right?
    But if you expect to earn 15% or 20% – it’s not going to happen. Or it will happen very rare. Don’t believe in false promises, they are counting on your lack of experience. If you build your financial security on bad premises you will end in a risky field. You may lose all your capital. If you have a more conservative approach to investments you will have a less stressful experience. Investing should give you certainty.

    Bottom line

    ROI is a popular measure due to its simplicity and versatility. Typically, use ROI as a simple measure of your investment’s profitability. Use the ROI on a stock investment. The calculation isn’t difficult. It is easy to understand. If your investment’s ROI is net positive, it is good. Avoid negative ROI, it is a signal of a net loss.

  • When to Sell Option Call?

    When to Sell Option Call?

    If the trade is going in your favor or for the trade that is going against you – don’t wait until expiration to see what happens. Sell before.

    Fresh traders, particularly those with a little amount on the account, like to buy options. But do they understand all the rules? The vast of them somehow skip selling prior to the expiration date. The truth is that the call option could be sold at any time. Call options give you the right to buy some assets, you already know that. To know when to sell the option call, pay attention to several situations.

    Let’s say you own calls and you decide to let them expire worthlessly. That’s okay. Your decision. But if you forgot and the stock closes on the expiration date the options will automatically be exercised whenever it is “in-the-money” when the market closes.

    And it will be a problem when the next day comes. The next day, the day after the expiration date, the margin call will come. Where is the problem? When you buy an option call, you are buying the right to buy a stock. Did you know that? If you are new in the options trading it is likely you didn’t. And what happens? When margin call comes you have to pay for shares and you’ll be forced to sell your call options. So, it is better for you to sell your options calls before the expiration date.

    So, you have to close your trade before the expiration date.

    When you opened your position your aim was to make a profit, right? So, don’t wait for options to get too close to the expiration date because they will lose the value. As the expiry date is closer, the value is going down. To make a profit it is better to sell your options and close the trade. Of course, you may take a loss too but if you wait longer and as you are approaching the expiration date, the chances to avoid loss are almost zero.

    Avoid margin call

    Lett’s say you bought one call option. How to know when to sell option call? Don’t forget that one option controls 100 shares of stock. And let’s say the strike price is $30. If the stock closes at $30,03 your options will be automatically exercised and you’ll be the owner of 100 shares of stock. Further, your broker will send you a margin call if you don’t have a sufficient amount on your account to pay that stock. And what you have to do? You will be forced to sell the stock to close out your trade. More often, you will sell it below the exercise price. But it isn’t necessary to be your case. You can avoid this unpleasant situation. Just close out your open position before the expiration day. Before the market closes, of course.

    For a strike price, you can calculate the cost to buy a call option and the cost to use it. You can find plenty of websites with options quotes. All you have to do is to type a stock’s ticker symbol and get a quote. You will see a column with months arranged and with the options expiring that particular month. Remember, you can trade the option until the third Friday of the expiration month.

    Calculate options for a strike price

    Find your wanted strike price in the “strike” column. Strike prices are ordered from cheaper than the stock price to higher than the stock price. Suppose the stock’s price is $50 and the strike prices ranging from $20 to $70 in a $2 increase. And you want to calculate an option with a $60 strike price. And suppose you want to buy a call option with a $2 “ask” price.

    To calculate the whole price to buy one option contract you have to multiply the ask price by 100. In our example, it is $2 x 100 which is $200. No, it doesn’t amount to buying the stock, this amount of money you have to pay for the right to buy the stock

    Let’s go further. The next thing to do is to multiply the strike price by 100. That is an added amount you have to pay to use the option.

    $60 x 100 = $6,000

    This means you can buy 100 shares of stock for $6,000 before the expiration date.

    Use volatility forecast

    In general, volatility is extremely important when buying or selling options. Since “returning towards the mean” is especially noticeable on volatility, you can somehow easily forecast the volatility as it goes above a certain point or less than a certain point – it will, most likely, return towards the average volatility.

    You can check the VIX to measure market volatility. Learn here how to do it.

    Bottom line

    Don’t buy call options with the aim to own the stock when the options expire. Your goal has to be to buy a call option and profit when the stock price grows.  If call options expire in the money, you will end up paying a bigger amount to buy the stock. Much bigger than what you would have paid if you had bought the stock. If you want to hold the stock, buy it. Don’t play games with options. 

    And finally, one important note when it comes to questioning when to sell option call.

    The European-style options expire on the third Thursday of the month. The American options expire on the third Friday. Don’t forget about this time difference. This could result in huge financial losses for you.

    Forecast volatility, that’s a key ingredient in profiting from option trading.

  • Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

    The PEG ratio is one of the most popular metrics. It is so easy to calculate it. It never takes more than 10 secs even if you are not good at math. 

    But, what do you think, is this extremely simple metric, this PEG ratio really useful?

    Let’s see. Let’s examine it a bit more on some examples.

    First of all, the PEG ratio or the price/earnings to growth ratio is a stock valuation measure. Investors use it to evaluate a company’s performance and investment risk. It is a measure, so it can be calculated. 

    When the PEG ratio value is 1 we can say there is an excellent bond between the company’s market value and its expected earnings growth. If the PEG ratio is higher than 1, the stock is overvalued. But when the PEG ratio is lower than 1, the stock is undervalued.

    The formula for PEG ratio is:

    PE Ratio (Price/Earnings) / Expected Growth Rate = PEG Ratio

    Assume we are examining two stocks with different characteristics

    Stock A company: 

    price – $20/share
    earnings – $4/share
    expected EPS growth – 5%

    Stock B company: 

    price – $40/share
    earnings – $4/share
    expected EPS growth = 20%

    For stock A company

    P/E ratio = $20/$4 = 5
    PEG ratio = 5/5 = 1

    For stock B company

    P/E ratio = $40/$4 = 10
    PEG ratio = 10/20 = 0.5

    If we study the P/E ratio for valuation plans, we will discover that the stock B company has an advantage because it has a P/E ratio that is 50% less than that stock A company has. But if you find that company A is going to improve its earnings 5 times faster than company B, you may modify your opinion. If you use the price to earnings growth, you will see that the stock A company trades at a lower PEG ratio than stock B company. So, what can we conclude? Company A stock may give a better value.

     

    But is that really true?

    Well, there are some weaknesses connected to the PEG ratio. Earnings growth is not an isolated thing in the market minds. To get a whole picture of the stock value you have to take care of many factors such as cash flow, dividends, revenue growth, etc.

    Further, when it comes to “growth” in the phrase “price/earnings to growth ratio” you will be faced with one problem when you are trying to value a company. You actually don’t know the rate of earnings growth. In the best case, you can guess or rely on Wall Street analysts. Having thin in mind, your PEG will be as good as your data is.

    Well, something is good with the PEG ratio. It is very useful for smaller companies but for large companies (for example Disney or Ford) where the growth isn’t so important to total returns, it can cheat.

     

    So, is the PEG ratio really useful?

    You have to keep in mind that it isn’t a mathematical result. The method is as good as its inputs. The future growth rate could be the main problem in this PEG formula. When you or any analyst make forecasts about the future it can be wrong.

    To make it clear, it is easy to calculate the PEG ratio for companies with weak growth. But, mature companies with excellent earnings and great dividends, have a slow growth rate. So, such companies will never have a PEG ratio of 1 or less. Right?

    It is almost the same for companies with fast growth.

    For instance, a company growing in a surplus of 30% per year will be incapable to maintain such a growth rate. Can you see how the PEG ratio is as good as its inputs? A huge amount of failures in the future earnings growth rises from a too optimistic or too pessimistic viewpoint for the company or industry. Getting an exact PEG ratio depends on what factors you use in the calculation. You may find that the PEG ratio is incorrect if you use historical growth rates. This one especially can lead to mistakes when future growth varies from the past.

    Bottom line

    Traders-Paradise wants to give some spotlight on the pros and cons of using the PEG ratio. As the answer to a question Is PEG ratio really useful, we can say: the PEG ratio is useful but only when you use it to improve a more precise discounted cash flow analysis or relative valuation.