Tag: TSLA

  • Tesla Bubble is Bringing New Short-Sellers

    Tesla Bubble is Bringing New Short-Sellers

    Tesla’s Bubble is Bringing New Short-Sellers
    Tesla stock rose an incredible 17% on Tuesday, but Morgan Stanley recommended selling Tesla for the first time since 2012.

    UPDATE 07/02/20:

    Yesterday 47 million shares of $TSLA traded at an average price of $750/share – equating to a nominal value of $35 billion. The last price was $748.96 on February 7.

    Tesla bubble is turning heavy bulls into short-sellers.
    The short-seller Andrew Left’s Citron Research tweeted: “even Elon would short the stock here if he was a fund manager.”

    Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) rally has seen the stock double in 2020 alone. The company’s market cap is over $160 billion. Great news to CEO Elon Musk and his bonus.

    The surge is getting headlines but what caused this change? Actually nothing. Tesla’s revenue growth dropped in the last quarter. The traders recognized it as a Tesla bubble and it isn’t surprising that a lot of them want to short it. 

    One is Citron Research as we mentioned.

    In a tweet posted on Tuesday, Citron Research said that they were shorting the stock again. Citron changed its mind after the recent run, despite their earlier statement that they would never do it again.

    On Thursday, even Morgan Stanley recommended selling Tesla for the first time since 2012. The bank downgraded Tesla to “underweight” from “equal-weight.” This new rating came at the time of a record rally for Tesla. Morgan Stanley also recognized rising downside risks. Shares of this electric-vehicle maker dropped 4% in early trading Thursday. It looks that traders who bet against Tesla’s victory are the ones who have to push the share price higher. What an irony! 

    Tesla bubble causes fears. How is that? Can you recall bitcoin’s surge back in 2017? Exactly. 

    The climbing for shares of Tesla provokes some investors to compare this jump to the bitcoin bubble. Tesla’s shares have grown 36% to a record price of around $887 in the last two sessions. This Silicon Valley favorite has jumped 180% during the last three months. Just to give you the right perspective,  on June 3 Tesla’s traded low at $178.97, on February 4, Tesla’s shares have gained almost 395%.

    And now Andrew Left said he’s betting Tesla will go back down. For the market winner 2020? Also, Michael Novogratz compared the surge in Tesla to bitcoin’s likewise parabolic progress.

    The gains have come too greatly, too wild

    The parabolic rally put shares up 21% Tuesday, after a 19% increase Monday. That put gains at over 100% for the past 12 months.  Bulls are clapping the record run, but short-sellers are also measuring in on what’s next for the electric car-maker. 

    But Citron Research doesn’t think the company is bankrupt, Andrew Left said Citron is shorting Tesla only because of the valuation.
    Citron Research tweeted more: “when the computers start driving the market, we believe even Elon would short the stock here if he was a fund manager. This is no longer about the technology, it has become the new Wall St casino.”

    Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Tesla to “underweight” 

    Now it is the “sell” rating. Tesla gets this rating from Morgan Stanley for the first time after seven years. According to Bloomberg, in September 2012 Morgan Stanley gave a selling rating to Tesla. This one came after a record rally and amid optimism about Tesla’s China factory. The bank saw the problem in “sentiment around the stock” that is “admittedly very strong, but we ultimately question the sustainability of the momentum.” 

    Morgan Stanley also lowered the valuation for the company’s mobility unit and increased the expectations for the core auto business. That resulted in a higher target price. 

    Why Tesla Bubble?

    Tesla’s current valuation is more downside risk for the stock than upside. Even the company’s increased price target from $250 to $360 indicates a 30% downside from the last trade price on Wednesday.

    Also, the optimism around the China factory had a great influence on Tesla’s stock. The problem is that the risks are not entirely recognized.

    Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley in his Thursday note wrote that investors “continue to harbor concerns whether an auto business commercializing advanced, dual-purpose technology in economically sensitive industries could be a long-term winner in the Chinese market.” 

    Tesla has entered into the bubble-zone, everyone is following what’s going on with it, even the people who are out of the stock market are reading news about Tesla’s stock price. And cheering. The surge was too fast, too far. That’s why it looks like a bubble. Who is surprised by short-sellers’ appearance now?

    What is a bubble?

    A bubble is when the fast rise of asset prices is followed by a shortening. It is generated by a surge in asset prices and driven by an enthusiastic market reaction. When fewer and fewer investors want to buy at a high price, a massive sell-off happens. That causes the bubble to decrease. After the new Morgan Stanley’s gave Tesla shares a “sell” rating it is quite possible the stock price will fall quickly. That is the situation with Tesla stock. The share value grows beyond asset value. So,  investors withdraw their money faster in fear that supply will exceed the demand. That could cause the share price to drop.

    Tesla’s 2020 rally has been strong. The stock was all the time very high and reached new all-time highs each week. But on Tuesday investors assumed that holes may arise whenTesla fell by over $100 just 15 minutes before the closing bell. This drop was followed by a large volume, implying that it wasn’t quite a healthy correction. Yes, TSLA finished the day up 17%, but the mini-drop was visible. It looks like the air is coming out of the bubble. 

    Bottom line

    Everyone should be skeptical when such a massive run in stock in a short time with very few visible reasons, appears. If we have in mind the recent rise of retail ownerships, we must consider that the further drops for Tesla stock are near. 

    Citron’s current change on Tesla stock can be accurate as the last one was. As an illustration, according to Bloomberg, Tesla overtook Apple as the most shorted US stock and analysts have bearish ratings on the asset. Everyone is predicting TSLA short squeeze. That can be right but on the other hand, it is more likely this stock price will decline slowly. Increasing short selling is more possible than a sharp fall. One of the analysts, Ihor Dusaniwsky said: “This is due to the amount of short hedging that is being done to offset Tesla convertible bond and options exposure.” 

    Before Tuesday’s rally, Tesla short-sellers had taken a $2.89 billion loss last year and a loss of $8.31 billion from the beginning of 2020. 

    Tesla shares were trading 12.73% higher at $879.30 on Tuesday.

    By the way, analysts that cover Tesla, predict the average price target is $506, which is around 35% below the closing price on Monday.

    But who can predict the market’s movement or what Elon Musks’ next move?

  • Tesla Cybertruck: It is not ball proof, but maybe it is bulletproof

    Tesla Cybertruck: It is not ball proof, but maybe it is bulletproof

    Tesla Cybertruck

    Tesla Cybertruck didn’t pass the metal ball test proof
    The company has always tried to meet auto-industry standards, which Elon Musk called “production hell.

    UPDATE 2019/11/25: Was it an embarrassing public presentation last week or just good marketing? Everything is possible. But one of three investors is sure that Tesla’s Cybertruck has a chance to be successful.
    After Elon Musk tweeted that the company received over 200,000 orders for the futuristic truck the stock price jumped for 0,99% on Monday and it is currently $336.34. The rumors increased the stock price. Take a look at the chart.

    Tesla Cybertruck didn’t pass the iron ball test. Are the broken windows the cause of dropping TSLA stock price? During the presentation of the new Cybertruck, something went wrong or the producer didn’t test the model enough before it showed it to the public? Anyway, it was hilarious. Okay! Musk tweeted after the reveal of the new model:

    “We threw the same steel ball at the same window several times right before the event and didn’t even scratch the glass.”

    The demo on late Thursday included hits with a sledgehammer and bullets that the truck could resist. But something went wrong as the windows broke into a thousand pieces when faced with a metal ball. It didn’t pass, though.

    And on that very day, the stock price dropped by 6% to $333.04 and Musk’s net worth plunged $768m after glass failure went viral. The launch of the Cybertruck experienced a delay since its “armored glass” windows shattered. And Wall Street was worried on Friday.

    Tesla Cybertruck

    The idea of Tesla Cybertruck is good? 

    It is constructed from stainless steel, a triangular structure and the base-model truck price is under $40,000. That should point out that Tesla is lowering battery costs. If we put aside the math (can be complicated) we will have a simple conclusion: someone is making EVs under $40.000. 

    There will be three models, the cheapest of which, at $39.900, mid-range model,  is priced at $49.900, and the most expensive at $69,900 that will start production in 2022.
    Electric vehicles are more costly than classic cars powered by internal combustion engines due to the battery pack. 

    However, refueling an EV by plugging it in is cheaper than with gas. And here we come to the pricing. The cost under $40.000 is a powerful promise. It looks the high battery costs are dropping. 

    But Tesla stock didn’t drop just because it had been higher. Over the past 3 months, the stock price has risen by almost 50% because the third-quarter results were better than expected. However, the drop on Friday looks to be related to the presentation of the Cybertruck and broken windows.

    The Robert W. Baird & Co.’s senior analyst, Ben Kallo is positive about Tesla stock, he rated it as Buy and set a target price at $355. 

    “While some may consider the Cybertruck too futuristic of a design,” he wrote in a Friday research report, “we do think strong functionality will eventually win over Tesla loyalists and enable the company to take share from traditional auto OEMs.” 

    Competition is big

    Ford is working on all-electric F-150, General Motors will enter the market in two years. Moreover, Ford and Amazon supported EV startup Rivian that also will bring something in 2020.

    The analyst Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity kept a buy rating on Tesla stock and a price target of $375.

    But Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch wrote he expected Tesla stock to fall because the investors might be skeptical of adoption of the Cybertruck.

    Yes, this vehicle is very different from current standards. So, what? Is that a problem?

    We think it isn’t. The main Tesla problem is that it isn’t a carmaker in, it is an innovator. They really should engage some constructors and workers with experience in the auto industry to build them a producing line. The industry veterans know that. Last year, Tesla’s factory in California couldn’t assemble the Model 3 sedan. 

    Maybe it is time for Tesla to follow the auto-industry practices and engage the experts in that field. At least, it will give fewer downturns and mistakes in the construction of their cars.

    Bottom line

    Recently Musk said the goal of Tesla is to create a system that provides “the most amount of fun you can have in a car.
    And Tesla added a “Caraoke” library of songs and lyrics, there are more games in Tesla Arcade. A partnership with gaming company StudioMDHR for its game Cuphead is signed. So, full entertainment is here. Where is the car?

    Tesla’s Cybertruck obviously didn’t pass the metal ball test. Will the stock survive that hilarious experiment? This EV maker is spending a lot of time on something the other car makers have almost led to perfection.

    That can make larger trouble in its business. Anyway, after the fiasco, Musk tweeted: “Guess we have some improvements to make before production haha.” Yes, you have, indeed.

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