Tag: stock market

All stock market related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

  • How Long Will The Bear Market Last?

    How Long Will The Bear Market Last?

    How Long Will The Bear Market Last?
    Stock markets over the world experienced great losses from the beginning of this year due to a massive sell-off caused by the COVID-19. 

    How long will the bear market last? We believe not forever. In fact, the bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Especially when they are driven by some event. Coronavirus outbreak is such an event. like this one is. But if we take a look at historical data we may conclude that the question of how long will the bear market last, pretty naive. How is that? Well, this kind of bear market recovers very fast.

    How can we be so sure?

    Let us explain. If we want to put different types of a bear market into categories, we will see we can put them into 3 key categories based on the type of drivers. 

    The first type of bear market is caused by the business cycle. That is when growth leads to inflation, interest rates increase too fast, the yield curve inverts, demand decreases, loan activity decreases, etc. They are so-called cyclical bear markets.

    The second type is caused by market bubbles, much more leverage, turbulences, and disruptions on the credit markets. In other words, this structural type of bear market occurs when we have structural asymmetries in the market or economy. So, we are pointing to another type of bear market, the so-called structural bear market. We already saw it in the 2008-2009 market downturn.

    But also, we can recognize a bear market driven by some event which is this one, caused by a coronavirus outbreak and global pandemic. Of course, this kind of bear market can be triggered by some crises, wars, political instabilities, etc.

    How long will the bear market last?

    This month can be an important test for stock-market investors. Everyone is looking for hints that the worst of this stock market massacre is ended. But the coronavirus outbreak moves on and demands at least short-term economic distress. In the next several weeks we will be faced with more and more bad news as a pandemic is spreading. That may cause further sellings. Bad news has such an influence on the stock market. Also, a surge of business failures can occur. 

    The experts sound pretty sure that the stock market’s bounceback last week is a good sign even though all markets are volatile. The stock market was dropping with great speed into the bear market. But yet, there is a hope that March lows for main indexes may be kept from further declines. That is just our opinion, based on the reaction of central banks. 

    Well, this bear market isn’t easy for any investor. Even the most optimistic investors claim that further decline is possible before the stocks find the bottom. That is true especially if we know that sharp rebounds are possible before retesting new lows. But as we said, there is a logical chance that recent lows can be the last we saw and rebounds can be better than in former significant selloffs.

    Predictions for the stock market

    Robert J. Shiller, a Nobel laureate is exactly certain about the stock market in the long run. His concerns are about how long will the bear market last, where the stock market is heading.

    He wrote for The New York Times:

    “It is too simple to assume that with its steep decline, the market has already discounted epidemiologists’ forecasts for COVID-19. By this logic, the stock market would fall further only if the virus turns out to be worse than forecast.”

    Yes, but we are dealing with an entirely unknown situation. We never have had before such a massive lockdown of everything companies, whole industries, millions of people, the numerous countries. This is a totally unique event.

    But Robert J. Shiller added in his column:

    “People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may. If you are 60, for example, you should hold 40 percent stocks, under this rule.”

    And also admitted that “this advice isn’t grounded in any scientific truth about financial markets.”

    Well, this advice isn’t bad, it is good advice. It isn’t against common sense. While people are doing something, taking action they may feel better. That is from a psychological point of view. Also, it is a quite reasonable decision to risk less in such a market downturn but yet inspires you to take action. 

    Shiller advises further “buying just enough to restore the stock balance after market declines.”

    Bear markets rule a short time

    Maybe this is the answer to the question of how long will the bear market last. Bear markets rule for a short time. What we can expect is the market data will be weak in the weeks ahead. The problem is what are we expecting.

    Stocks in March entered a bear market with record speed. After March 23 they were bouncing sharply. But DJIA has the biggest first-quarter decline of -1.68% on record with a 23.2% fall. The S&P 500 Index had a decline of -1.51% on a 20% first-quarter fall this year. It is the biggest since 2008. After March 23 both indexes had a rebound and for example, DJIA had its biggest three-day gain, which had been seen last time in 1931.

    Let’s see how long this bear could market last?

    As we said we can recognize three main types of bear markets: caused by the business cycle, caused by some event (like this one) and a structural bear market.

    The most severe is the structural bear market because it is the result of problems in the financial system and capital markets.

    A cyclical bear market is bad also but tends to fix itself over a short time and sufficient policy answers.

    And last but not the least, the bear market caused by some event. According to historical data, this kind of bear market was shorter, less critical on the downside. Such a market took less time to recover. It is quite logical. Before the market was hit with a drastic event such as a coronavirus outbreak, the markets all over the world were in good condition. And you see, that’s why we think that it does not take as long for the economy to recover once the shock of this event disappears. It’s true that so many people lost jobs in the early stage of the pandemic, the companies are faced with shutdowns and limitations. But when this kind of problem disappears, everything can return in normal pretty quickly.

    Bottom line

    How long will the bear market last? There is no way to predict that, honestly. Who can predict when the market will bottom? From what we know, the bear market will end even before bad news stops coming up to us. For investors, the main point is to be ready for that first day of recovery, they have to adjust their positions for that to join the rebound when it happens. We believe it can happen sooner than many investors expect or predict.

    In the meantime, we recommend investors wait for it calmly. Stay focused on long-term investments and don’t let your emotions take control of your decisions. Use this period to learn something new and expend your horizons.

  • Volatility Trading – How To Trade Volatility Profitably?

    Volatility Trading – How To Trade Volatility Profitably?

    (Updated November 2021)

    Volatility Trading - How To Trade Volatility Profitably?
    Volatility traders do not pay attention to which direction stock prices move, they are interested in the level of volatility itself.

    Volatility trading describes trading the volatility of the price of an underlying asset. Make a note of the difference, it isn’t trading of the price itself. Or in other words, volatility trading indicates trading the assumed future volatility of the index. Hence, it is buying and selling the anticipated future volatility of the asset. Every single asset in which price changes, actually manifests price volatility. So, traders that trade volatility looks at how much change, in any direction, will happen. They don’t pay attention to the price, they don’t want to predict the price itself. Such traders just think about how much the price of some asset will move in the future, in the stock price, for example. No matter if it will go up or down. And it isn’t random trading. They have developed strategies which we’ll present to you.

    But firstly, we would like to make clear what volatility trading is.

    For example, options are a favorite tool for volatility trading. Why is that? Well, many factors can affect the value of the option but a crucial for its value is the expected future volatility of the underlying asset. Hence, options with higher expected volatility are more valuable than options on instruments with low expected volatility in the future.
    Therefore, options represent an easy way to get exposure to the volatility of the underlying instruments. Basically, that expected future volatility of the underlying instrument of an option is a very important part when traders’ valuing the option.

    Factors important to determine the volatility

    We can recognize seven factors that determine the price of an option and they are also called variables. While all of them are variable only one is an estimate and represents the most important part. The known factors are the current price of an underlying asset, strike price, also the known part is calls and puts, meaning what is the type of an option. Further, we always know what is the risk-free interest rate, and the dividends on the underlying assets. But what we don’t know is volatility. The volatility is the most important variable to determine the price of an option. So we need to know what indicates volatility. 

    First of all, it is one of the “Greeks” – Vega. 

    It is the measure of an option’s price sensitivity to shifts in the volatility of the underlying instrument. Vega outlines the value that an option’s price changes as a response to a 1% move in the expected volatility of the underlying asset. This “greek” will show the change of an option for every 1% of the change in volatility. 

    Main points related to volatility trading

    Traders should pay attention to two main points related to volatility.

    One is relative volatility. It refers to the current volatility of the stock in comparison to its volatility over a given period. For example, ABC stock options that expire in one-month historically showed expected volatility of 15%, but current volatility is 25%. Let’s compare it with XYZ stock options that had expected volatility of 25% but now grown to 30%. If we want to estimate absolute volatility it is obvious that XYZ stock has a greater. But the stock ABC gained a greater change in relative volatility. 

    The volatility of the overall market is important too. The most used is VIX ( the CBOE Volatility Index) that measures the volatility of the S&P 500. VIX is also known as the investors’  fear gauge. When the S&P 500 experiences a sharp decline, the VIX increases sharply. Every time when the S&P 500 is rising gradually, the VIX will be pacified. 

    Strategies for volatility trading

    Straddle strategy

    As we said, traders who trade volatility are not interested in the direction of the price changes. They make money on high volatility, no matter whether the price goes up or down. 

    One of the most popular strategies for volatility trading is the Straddle strategy with pending orders. This strategy provides a profit when the price goes considerably in one direction, no matter if it is up or down. The best time to use this strategy is when the traders expect an extreme increase in volatility.  

    We said it has to be used with pending orders. The pending orders are orders that were not yet executed, hence not yet becoming a trade. They’ll become market orders when certain pre-specified conditions are met.
    If you want to use this strategy, you’ll need to identify a market in consolidation before some significant market release. Further, set a buy stop pending order above the upper consolidation resistance. A sell stop pending order you should set below the lower consolidation support.  

    In Forex trading

    For example, you are trading Forex and have a currency pair that entered a consolidation stage with low volatility. Just put buy stop orders a few pips above the upper resistance,  so a sell stop order should be a few pips below the lower support. No matter in which direction the price will change, it will trigger one of these orders and when the volatility continues, the trade will end up in a profit.

    The real trigger for pending orders is volatility. Volatility occurs a bit before important reports in the market and traders usually schedule this kind of trades before them.
    In a straddle strategy, the traders write or sell a call and put at the same strike price wanting to receive the premiums on both positions. The reason behind this strategy is that the traders await expected volatility to decrease significantly by option expiry. That allows them to hold most of the premiums received on short put and short call positions.

    Ratio Writing

    Ratio writing is simply writing more options than are bought. Use a 2:1 ratio, just two options, sold or written for every option bought. The aim is to profit on a large fall in expected volatility before the date of expiry.

    Iron Condors in volatility trading

    In this strategy, the traders combine a bear call spread with a bull put spread of the same expiration. They hope to profit on a reversal in volatility. The result would be the stock trading in a tight range during the life of the options.
    The iron condor strategy has a low payoff, but the potential loss also has a limitation.

    Go long

    During the high volatility, traders who are bearish on the stock can buy puts on it. Keep in mind the saying “the trend is your friend.”
    “Go long” strategy or buy puts is expensive. It requires, from traders who want to lower the costs of long put positions, to buy more put out-of-the-money or, the other way is to add a short put position at a cheaper price to meet the cost of the long put position. You can find this strategy under the name a bear put spread.

    Go Short

    The other name for this strategy is “write calls”. The traders who are bearish on the stock but think the level of expected volatility for options could decrease may write naked calls to pocket a premium.
    Writing or shorting a naked call is a very risky strategy, keep that in mind. There can be an unlimited risk if the underlying stock boosts in price before the expiry date of the naked call position. In such a case, you can end up with several hundred percent of the loss. To reduce this risk, just combine the short call position with a long call position at a higher price. This strategy you can find under the name “a bear call spread.”

    Use VIX to predict the volatility 

    Yes, you can recognize market turns by using VIX. To be more specific,  you’ll recognize the bottoms. Well, the stock market regularly rises gradually and the VIX will decrease in the same manner. So very low levels can occur. The investors don’t feel they need any protection. If these periods last longer, the VIX as a sell signal can be useless. 

    But, the nature of the S&P 500 is long-biased. If index declines investors start to buy protection (simple put options) fast. That pushes up the VIX. Can you see how great the “fear barometer” VIX is? When you notice a high VIX you can be sure the investors and traders are overreacting because the market drops. The VIX during times of market drops will behave as the spike. That is a good signal to discover when selling is overdone and the market is moving higher due to bounce or even bottom for a longer-term.

    This strategy is suitable when the VIX ‘sign’ appears during a bullish trend in the S&P 500.

    Bottom line

    Volatility trading is an excellent way to get profitable trades even if you are wrong about the direction of the price. Volatility is the main interest of volatility traders. They are seeking big changes in any direction. Use the VIX index as a measurement for volatility in the stock market. A rising VIX index indicates fears in the market. But it is a good time to buy stocks. The most popular trading strategy to trade volatility is the Straddle strategy.
    Also, traders use the Short Straddle strategy when they expect a lack of volatility, for example, the prices continuing with steady change.
    No matter which of these strategies you want to use, just keep in mind that you can profit no matter what is the direction of the price movement.

  • Shiller CAPE Ratio – The Measurement Of Market Valuation

    Shiller CAPE Ratio – The Measurement Of Market Valuation

    Shiller CAPE Ratio – The Measurement Of Market Valuation
    The Shiller P/E or the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of a stock market is a market valuation metric that eliminates change of the ratio caused by the difference of profit margins during business cycles. It is the regular metric for evaluating whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued.

    Shiller CAPE ratio or the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of a stock market is one of the regular metrics if you want to evaluate whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued.

    Shiller CAPE ratio, developed by Robert Shiller, professor of Yale University and Nobel Prize Laureate in economics. This ratio usage increased during the Dotcom Bubble when he claimed the equities were extremely overvalued. And he was right, we know that now. Shiller P/E is actually a modification of the standard P/E ratio of a stock.

    Investors use this Shiller CAPE ratio mostly for the S&P 500 index but it is suitable for any. What is so interesting about the Shiller CAPE ratio? First of all, it is one of several full metrics for the market valuation able to show investors how much of their portfolios should wisely be invested into equities. 

    The ratio is based on the current relationship among the price of equities you pay and the profit you get in return as your earnings.

    For example, if the CAPE ratio is high it could indicate lower returns across the following couple of decades. And opposite, a lower CAPE ratio might be a sign of higher returns across the next couple of decades, as the ratio reverts back to the average.

    Investors use it as a valuation metric to forecast future returns. The metric has become a popular method to get long-term stock market valuations. To be more precise, the Shiller CAPE ratio is the ratio of the S&P 500’s (or some other index) current price divided by the 10-year moving average of earnings adjusted for inflation.
    The formula is:

    CAPE ratio = share price / average earnings over 10 years, adjusted for inflation

    That was the formula but let us explain a bit more how to calculate the Shiller CAPE or also called Shiller’s P/E ratio.
    What you have to do is to use the annual earnings of the company in the last 10 years. Further, adjust the past earnings for inflation.  

    How the Shiller CAPE ratio works

    As an investor, you know that the price is the amount you have to pay, and the value is the amount you get. That’s clear. We have to compare the price to the value and that’s why we have many metrics to do so. One of them is the P/E ratio, read more HERE.

    It is legal that everyone wants to buy a healthy company when the shares are trading at a low P/E ratio. This means you can get lots of earnings for the price you paid. This is valuable for index too. Just take an aggregate price of the shares of the company from, for example, the S&P 500 index for one year and divide that number by the aggregate company’s earnings for that year. You will get an average P/E for the index.

    But it isn’t quite true. For example, during the recession. At the time of the recession stock prices will fall as well as companies’ earnings (okay, they may fall significantly sharper). The problem is that the P/E ratio can rise temporarily. The investors want to buy when this ratio is low but temporary high P/E can send them a fake signal that the market is overpriced. And what is the consequence? Investors wouldn’t buy at the time when it is the best solution.

    So, here is the Shiller CAPE ratio to fix that. Shiller invented a special version of the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio to help fix this simple calculation. If we use his CAPE ratio we’ll have a more accurate understanding of the ratio between current price and earnings. This ratio employs the average earnings over the past business cycle, not just one year that may have bad or good earnings.

    The importance of the ratio

    Shiller himself explained this the best. He used 130 years of data and noticed that the returns of the S&P 500 over the next 20 years are fully inversely connected with the CAPE ratio at any observed period. How should we understand this? Well, when the CAPE ratio of the market is high, that means the stocks are overvalued. So, the returns in the next 20 years will be lower. Hence, if the CAPE ratio is low, we can be sure the next 20 years the returns will be satisfying. 

    This is natural and logical. Cheap stocks can increase in price no matter if it is from a growing company’s earnings or a rising P/E ratio. Contrarily, when stocks are expensive and have a high P/E ratio, they don’t have too much space to grow. It is more likely they have more chances to drop when market correction or recession comes.

    How to use the Shiller CAPE ratio

    Shiller warned against using CAPE in short-term trades. The CAPE is more helpful in predicting long-term returns. Siller said in an interview:  “It’s not a timing mechanism, it doesn’t tell you – and I had the same mistake in my mind, to some extent — wait until it goes all the way down to a P/E of 7, or something.”

    But really, you have to combine CAPE with a market diversification algo or some other tool for that. Maybe the most important part is that you never get fully in or fully out of stocks.  As the CAPE is getting lower and lower, you are moving more and more in. We think the CAPE ratio for March this year is 21.12. Check the Shiller P/E ratio HERE

    So, it isn’t super high. We, at Traders-Paradise, think the stocks should be an important part of your portfolio. Don’t get out of the stocks and go in cash because the CAPE is at 21. It is smarter to buy less and expect poorer returns in the next several years. Some experts noted that markets are most vulnerable when the Shiller P/E is above 26 like it was in February this year. Some stats show that investors respecting Shiller’s ratio are doing better.

    Bottom line

    Since Shiller showed that lower ratios signify higher returns for investors over time, his CAPE ratio becomes an important metric for predicting future earnings.

    There are criticisms about the use of the CAPE ratio in predicting earnings. The main matter is that the ratio doesn’t take into account changes in the calculation of earnings. These kinds of changes may turn the ratio and give a negative view of future earnings.

    The CAPE ratio was proved as important for identifying potential bubbles and market crashes. The average of the ratio for the S&P 500 Index was between 15 -16. The highest levels of the ratio have exceeded 31( February 2020). For now, the Shiller CAPE ratio announced market crashes three times during history: Great Depression in 1929, Dotcom crash in 1990, and Financial Crisis 2007 – 2008.

    Opponents of the CAPE ratio claim that it is not quite helpful since it is essentially backward-looking, more than it is forward-looking. Another problem is that the ratio relies on GAAP earnings, which have been changed in recent years. 

    The proponents claim the Shiller P/E ratio is good guidance for investors in determining their investment strategies at various market valuations. 

    Historical data show that when the market is fair or overvalued, it is good to be defensive. When the market is cheap, companies with strong balance sheets can produce great returns in the long run.

  • Gross Margin How To Calculate And Why It Is Important For Investors

    Gross Margin How To Calculate And Why It Is Important For Investors

    Gross Margin How To Calculate
    The gross margin helps investors to examine a company’s potential for profitability. But investors shouldn’t rely on it as the only metric.

    Gross margin represents the companies’ net sales revenue minus the cost of goods sold or shorter COGS. Why is this so important? Gross margin is the sales revenue companies keep. To put it simply, that is the money the companies left over when they pay all cost, fixed and variable related to their production but subtracted from their net sales. Fixed and variable costs are purchasing the materials needed for production, plant overhead, labor. So, the higher gross margin means that a company retains more capital. That money company usually uses for debt payments or some other costs. 

    To calculate it we need to know two figures: net sales and cost of goods sold. Net sales is calculated if subtract returns, discounts, and allowances from the gross revenue. 

    So the formula to calculate the gross margin is expressed as

    gross margin = net sales − COGS

    This is is an important metric. It enables companies to fund investments during periods of growth and be profitable when the growth declines. Many factors add to a company’s capability to keep a high gross margin. That can be products that deliver high ROI, pricing discipline, etc. It reveals how much a company is able to invest in further development, sales, or marketing and consequently, can it be the winner in the market.

    The importance of gross margin in investing

    Every single investor would like to discover the next big player in the market and invest in the company in its early days and ride those stocks to enormous gains. For example, some of them did it in the early days of Apple, Microsoft or similar. 

    Though, finding these stocks is the tricky part. Early-stage growth companies don’t have obvious and constant earnings. Some investors who invested in such companies usually end up in loss. Since there is no earnings yet, what do you have to look at? Simple, look at the gross margin and cash flow. For early-stage companies, but not for them only, these two metrics are most important. Well, you have to understand one important thing. Some companies will heavily spend to develop some products or expand their business during some period. So, it might be some losses over those periods that can last even a few years. But every investor is expecting that, right? Hence, the most important for you as an investor is to determine if the company is able to be profitable after all.

    For example, you are examining a fresh company in the market. It has fantastic revenue growth. Always ask yourself how capable is the management in turning sales into profits? Here is this important metric on the scene to help us. It is the best tool we have to examine a company’s potential for profitability. Use the formula above and calculate it before deciding to buy any stock. Never overlook the importance of gross margin.

    A real-life example

    Let’s assume a company you are estimating has $10 million in sales. The costs of purchasing materials and labor amount to $6 million. What will be its gross margin? Let’s use the formula.

    $10.000.000 – $6.000.000 = $4.000.000

    That is a 40% gross margin rate. This figure is important but you’ll need to estimate if a company is on the way to profitability. So, watch for increasing gross profit margins. The increasing gross profit margin will show if there is an uptrend.
    Also, increasing gross margin is connected to research and development. For example, biotech and technology companies need money to invest in these sectors. Companies with increasing gross margins always invest more cash in future operations.

    What does the gross margin tell investors?

    The gross margin is the part of the revenue that the company retains as gross profit. For instance, when a company’s quarterly gross margin is 40%, that means it retains $0.40 from each dollar of revenue produced. You can use any currency, of course. Since COGS has been already subtracted, the rest of the fund can be used for interest fees, debts, dividends payment, etc. Gross margin is very important for companies, not for investors only. By using this tool they can compare the expense of production with revenues. For instance, a company has a problem with falling gross margin. What can management do?

    They may try to cut labor costs or to find a cheaper supplier. The other solution is to increase the price of the products to increase revenue. But this isn’t always the best solution since the sales may drop due to increasing prices. Gross profit margins can be useful for investors to estimate company efficiency. Also, this measure can help investors to compare the companies with different market caps.

    How gross margin influence the profitability

    To explain the influence gross margin has on profitability, let’s examine an easy example. For example, two companies are the same, but their gross margins are different. They have the same revenue, distribution, operating costs, almost everything is the same. But, company ABC is generating double the operating profit of company XYZ. If we want to value these companies, we can conclude that company ABC should be valued more than twice the value of company XYZ.  

    But what if company XYZ has a temporary hard time making gross margin below, for example, 10%? What is this company is investing in research and development, and thus has an expense for that of about 30%? Does this make it less efficient and favorable? Maybe this company is doing something on the go-to-market side to get more customers? So, this part has to be examined also. What we want to say is that one metric isn’t good enough, you have to use several to get the full picture of the company’s performances. Even companies with low gross margins can be profitable in a long haul.

    Is it important in stock picking and investment?

    Some investors misunderstand the gross margin also called gross profit margin with profitability ratio operating margin. 

    Remember, different companies have different gross margins and that depends on the essence of business. That is the reason why you should never try to compare the gross margins of companies from different industries. Do it in the same industry. Of course, you can make comparisons for companies with different market caps.

    When you are estimating the gross margin willing to pick a stock to buy, remember that the majority of the companies are following the market cycles. When the market is booming the demand is very high, while in the dropping market the demand is low. During the bull market, period companies with a high gross margin will be a favorable investment. Hence, when the bear market starts such a company will suffer more. Well, how is that possible? The company with a high gross margin tends to grow faster, its profit and EPS grow faster, and higher EPS means higher returns for shareholders. But when the bear market occurs the profit of such a company will usually fall faster.

    Of course, the management has the possibility to reduce the costs and limit the operating margin decline.

    Bottom line

    Investors can use this metric while deciding to invest in some company but shouldn’t be relied on it as solely one. They have to use it along with other metrics to pick a stock they want to add to the portfolio. Companies with high gross margin can deliver strong returns but the other parameters should be included also. Keep in mind that some early-stage companies can be a good choice too, also if the other metrics show that.

  • The Bear Market Starts – How To Avoid Big Losses?

    The Bear Market Starts – How To Avoid Big Losses?

    The Bear Market Starts - How To Avoid Big Losses?
    We are not clairvoyants so we cannot predict how long this bear market will last, but what we can do is to suggest to you how to overcome this market condition. 

    The bear market starts. Dow Jones closed down over 20% on March 11 compared to its highs in February. That is the end of its historic bull market run. The bear market starts. Actually, it started at the moment as the pandemic was declared by the WHO. What to do with your investments right now? Will the stock market crash?

    No one knows for sure what will happen next. But it is quite possible that the coronavirus could put stocks down for a long time. What makes us afraid is that the bear markets can go along with the recession.

    Investors are panicked. Past several weeks the stock market was switching so fast and unpredictable. Michael Macke, founder of Petros Advisory Services told CNBC Make IT about investors’ feelings: “like we are all Chicken Little.” His comment was relating to the tale about the chicken who was claiming the sky was falling, but the chicken was wrong, right or wrong?  “Only after the fact will we know for sure if we have a bear market or even a recession,” said Macke.

    Nothing can last forever, even bad or good. The good times must come to the end at some point. This is particularly true for the stock market. And this bullish period did it. So, the bear market starts.
    After a fairly exciting run, the stock market lastly jumped into the bear market territory. Investors are disturbed and panicked. 

    But what do we know about the bear market? 

    What to do when the bear market starts

    The bear market is a point when stock prices drop at least 20% from a recent high. They will stay down there for a while. But how long will it take for the stock market to recover? What to do? Will the recession come too? What to do with investments? How to avoid losses and is that possible at all? This is a turbulent time. So many questions but several answers.

    If we try timing the market we’ll be foolish. So, let’s see what experts have to say. First of all, they say drops like this one is a good opportunity to buy more stocks, particularly the people investing for retirement. This is important for younger investors who couldn’t buy stocks during the bullish market because the prices were too high, hitting all the time the new highs. If you have some spare money and you don’t need it in the next, for example, five years, put it in investments. But if you think you will need that cash it is smarter to stay away from the stock market. The history of the 200-years old stock market shows that the market will start to rebound as the bad news stops coming and the prices will stop to decline. 

    What is smart to do during the bear market period?

    When the bear market starts, it is smart to check your concrete investment strategy. If you are a young investor it is quite possible you are facing the bear market for the first time in your life. So, this is a great opportunity to check your risk appetite and how much you are able to manage it. You might obtain a valuable lesson.

    Even advanced investors do the same. They are reviewing their portfolios to be sure that the investments they are holding are suitable for their investing goals. It is very important to see your investments are in line with the risks you take. Some experts think that pilling off into safer investments is a bad decision. And maybe they are right. History shows that if you successfully handle your stocks during the bear market, it is more possible to profit a great when the market recovers. Yes, this all about long-term investors because investing isn’t about a moment in time, it is a process over time.

    What is the best strategy when the bear market starts?

    No one likes this. This enemy is dangerous so don’t try to fight back with it. The most important is to stay calm. Okay, you may play dead as you should do when you meet the bear in the woods. Just lay down and pretend you are dead. This was a joke but it works when the bear market starts and everything seem so uncertain.
    So, don’t be frightened. Fear is a bad partner now.

    Do you know the old saying on Wall Street? “The Dow climbs a wall of worry.” What does it mean? This means the markets will continue to rise despite anything. Nothing can stop that. No matter if we have an economic crisis, terrorism, or other misfortunes. Just keep your emotions under control and far away from investment decisions. Look, today’s catastrophe will be just an unpleasant flash one day. Nothing more. Well, it can last a few years but still.

    It is a normal condition

    The other important thing. It is normal to have bad years in the stock market. They are coming in the cycles and it isn’t unusual. For long-term investors, this is particularly a favorable situation. They can buy stocks at discount. 

    Speaking about this bear period, it might be smart investing in, for example, NFLX (Netflix) can be a good choice. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, and pandemic people have to stay at their homes and what are they going to do?  Watching TV, of course. That will bring a higher income with more subscribers, consequently, the dividends could be higher and the stock price will rise. But don’t buy Uber’s stock, for instance. You might wonder why. It is quite simple to explain. As more people will stay at home, less income will be for Uber and prices can drop. (Thank you Guy, for these examples.)

    Maybe the stocks of the companies that are involved in vaccine development or anything related to this unfortunate situation are not bad decisions. Pharmaceutical, detergent, soaps, antiseptic, hygienic supplies producers, virus testing, and other biotech companies. Think about this.

    Diversification can help also

    The point is to have a well-diversified portfolio. If you don’t have yet, it is time to add bonds, cash, stocks. The percentage of each will depend on your risk tolerance, goals or are you an investor with a long time horizon or not. A proper allocation strategy will save you from potential negative forces. 

    Further, invest only the amount you can allow to lose, that will not hurt your budget or the whole capital. For example, don’t take short-term loans and buy stock with that money if you don’t plan to hold them for a long time, e.g. five years or longer.
    Keep in mind, when the bear market starts, even trivial corrections, can be remarkably harmful.

    But as we said, when the bear market starts that may provide great opportunities if you know where to look for. We pointed to just a few examples above. Maybe you should follow what Warren Buffett did. So, buy the value stocks since their prices are going down.

    Bottom line

    What to do when a bear market starts?

    We can’t predict how long this bear market will last. If you’re considering selling off a group of stocks to lower your losses, just don’t do that. By doing so you’ll end up locked in losses. How can that situation help you? But if you have cash available for investing, this bear market period is a great time to do so. Remember, just don’t invest money you may need in the next five years or more.

    Also, don’t get scared as some investors are when a bear market starts. The stock market will recover from this as always it did during history. If you buy stocks now and your plan is to hold for a long time, you will have good chances to end up in profit.

    Maybe it is best to use our preferred trading platform virtual trading system and check the two formula pattern.

  • How to Invest In Stocks?

    How to Invest In Stocks?

    How to Invest In Stocks?
    Investing in stocks is an outstanding approach to grow wealth. But how to start? Follow the explanation below to learn how to invest in stocks.

    There is a difference between understanding that investing in stocks is a reasonable financial decision and understanding how to invest in stocks. If you are a beginner it can be very important. Yes, investing in stocks is a reasonable decision in any circumstances. But do you know how to invest in stocks? It isn’t just about picking some stock and putting the money. For many people, the stock market is a big enigma but it hasn’t to be. Also, many people are questioning how to invest in stocks and still, this is complicated for them. So many potential investors are scared to start investing. 

    But we have to say they are making maybe the biggest mistake in their lives. There are so many benefits of investing. The effort that it takes to learn how to invest in stocks, will result in great benefit. Anyway, the advantages of investing far outweigh the efforts spent to learn. One thing is for sure, investing in stocks isn’t frustrating at all. At least, it shouldn’t be. 

    So, let’s start. 

    We are going to explain how to start investing in stocks

    First of all, you can buy and sell shares in any public company at any time. The principle is almost the same as any other business. The point is to buy a share of stocks in the company when it is cheaper than its actual value. The next step is to hold on for some time until its value has risen to the position that you feel satisfied to sell it for a profit.

    So a successful investment could be (please keep that in mind this is a made-up example) as followed. Let’s say you bought a stock of a company and you paid $20 per share. And you hold on to this company for 3 years. After that period of time, your stock has grown at $50. You wouldn’t like to miss this opportunity for profit and earn 2.5 times more than your initial investment was. Even better is if you bought a dividend-pay stock so you can gain profits along the way without selling any of its shares.

    How really to invest in stocks

    You cannot start without any knowledge about it. Therefore, you have to know the fundamentals of investing. The main goal of investing is to make money. That will not be complicated if you have a plan and investment strategy. So, we already said that investing is simply buying assets that are supposed to grow in value. That can be stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds. But keep in mind that you don’t have guarantees that your investment will increase in value over time.

    You are wary of taking risks now, aren’t you? Don’t be, we know your hard-earned money can be at risk. You may choose some low-risk investments, for example, bonds. But historically, stocks generated larger returns than bonds. And you are seeking wealth. You may ask why to invest and not put your money into a savings account. Well, investments will give you higher returns, particularly over a long time.

    But you have to decide where to invest, what are your financial goals. We are talking about how to invest in stocks. And if you follow some rules it can be safe and provide you high returns.

    Let’s buy our first stock

    As a beginner investor, you can invest for the long-term or invest in companies that mean something special to you personally. It is always easier to make a success with the long term-investing. Trying to make short-term profits can be a tricky part for new investors.
    So, in short-term investing, you have to know when to buy and sell. That requires great research, education, and a bit of luck. Yes, why not say that. If you choose a long-term investing, all you have to do is pick a great company at a fair price. Your stock will increase in value over time. The possible costly errors will be reduced as the longer your investing horizon is. Invest in companies that you are already familiar with.

    Okay, let’s assume you found a company you would like to invest in. So, you can buy shares in that company through a broker. Brokers provide you to easily do that. Remember, they are charging a fee for the services. Buying stocks is simple like you are picking something from the online catalog. Just pick the stock you want, the number of shares you want, and your purchase is completed when you put money. You have great options with online brokers but you have to check them before starting working with them. Also, online brokers will charge you lower fees. How to choose a broker you will find HERE.

    Follow three basic strategies when investing 

    Start investing earlier
    If you want your money to work for you, and you start investing as soon as you can, the more chances it will have for growth.
    Stay invested as long as you can
    This is something about compounding returns. The point is to stay invested, meaning don’t go in and out of the market. If you stay invested you’re able to earn more money than you have already earned.
    Risk management
    You’ll need to spread out your investments to be able to handle the risks. Never put all your money in just one investment. It is too risky and dangerous. Diversification is the recipe for successful investing. When you have several investments added to your portfolio, the risk of losing money is lower. Some of your investments will be winners, some will not. But over a long haul, you will profit.

    Stocks pay you dividends

    That will provide you a stream of income and without having to sell even one share. We know you’ve heard how investors are interested in the drop and rise of the value of stocks. But, trust us, they are very interested in the dividends paying stocks. To make clear what dividends are. They are amounts that the companies are paying to their stockholders for each share of stock they hold. It is commonly less than one dollar, for example. But…

    Let’s say you want to buy shares in the company at $10 per share. And you want to invest $2.000. So, you’ll have 200 shares of that company. That company pays a dividend of $0.10 quarterly. What does it mean? This means you will have $20 every three months, $0.10 x 200 = $20. It isn’t much, but for one year you will receive $80 and you can reinvest it or buy some other stake of shares in different companies. Anyway, it is an additional income from one stock. When you become a large investor, dividends only could provide you a nice life. For example, instead of $2.000 investment, you were able to invest $2.000.000. In this case, you would own 200.000 shares of the stock mentioned in our example. That would mean you could have a $20.000 per quarter or $80.000 per year just in dividends. Not bad, right? Moreover, you didn’t need to sell any of your stock. 

    The companies can change their dividends. It is normal. They can pay out a smaller dividend per share or raise them. You have to know that dividends are not guaranteed. They are just a nice bonus, particularly with a solid company with a long history of raising dividends.

    How to invest in stocks in four steps

    It is very important to estimate what some company means to you. If the company has some meaning to you, you’ll be more interested in it. You’ll be more inspired to research it and you can invest with confidence. So, that will be the first step before starting investing in stocks. Find and examine a company that means something to you. 

    The second step is to examine how the company prevents its rivals to take over the control over its market. In other words, it is a so-called moat. Big companies with famous brands have a moat, for example. They are unique in the market, well-recognized, and well-positioned. The competitors can stay on the coast and cry but you will have a safe investment. 

    Also, pay attention to management. Are the people who are the leaders of the company competent? You don’t want to invest in the company which is led by corrupted managers.  

    But maybe the most important part of how to invest in stocks is to find a company with a high safety margin. It is a financial ratio that estimates the number of sales that exceed the break-even point. In other words, that is the point where the company stops being profitable.

    Also, the safety margin represents the difference between the intrinsic value and the market price of stocks. To calculate the safety margin use this formula:

    Safety margin = sales – the break-even point

    Bottom line

    You may ask how much you should invest in stocks.
    The amount of money you should invest in stocks is up to you and your financial condition. Never invest more than you can afford to lose, that’s the rule. Even the smartest and most advanced investors sometimes can be dried. Never invest in something you can’t understand. Always calculate the risks. In that way, you’ll be able to recognize the potential reward and the probability of loss.  Does the stock have a history of giving returns, how losses could occur, are important questions and you have to find the answers. 

    Don’t jump into the stock market without knowing why. Do detailed research to avoid big losses and failures.  Your most important step should be to research the companies, though. The final step is to buy a stock and start getting rewards. 

    While this article isn’t meant to cover everything you need to know about investing in stocks or everything on how to invest in stocks. That is the no-end process. For more to know, participate in our Full Trading & Investing Course.

  • What Is Options Trading Examples

    What Is Options Trading Examples

    What Is Options Trading?
    In options trading, the underlying asset can be stocks, commodities, futures, index, currencies. The option of stock gives the right to buy or sell the stock at a definite price and specified date. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Before we explain deeper: what is options trading, we need to understand why we should trade options at all. If you think it something fancy, you couldn’t be more wrong. Actually, the origin of options trading came from ancient times. For example, Ancient Greeks were speculating on the price of olives before harvest and traded according to that. When someone asks you: what is options trading and argues that it belongs to modern stock brokerages just tell such one about trading olives. 

    From the first day of trade existence, people were trying to guess the price of food or some item they wanted to buy. 

    What is options trading?

    We have a simple example to answer the question: “ What is options trading.”

    Let’s say we want to buy a stock at $10.000. But the broker tells us that we can buy that stock at $20 and the time is limited so we have to make our decision in a short time frame but we don’t know “ what is options trading.” This broker’s offer means that we have to pay $20 now and get a right to buy the stock after one month. Well, our right, in this case, obligates the seller to sell us that stock at $10.000 even if the price increases in value after one month. This $200 will stay in the broker’s account forever. We will never get it back. But we got the right to buy the stock at the price we are willing to pay. 

    How does options trading work?

    We understand there is a chance that the stock price will increase much over $10.200, we want to pay our broker an extra $200 to provide us the right to buy the stock at $10.000. Moreover, we saved the rest of our $10.000 so we can keep it or invest in something else while waiting for the end of the period.

    Okay, the end is here, the one-month period is over so what is the next? Well, we have the right to buy that stock at $10.000 and we noticed the price is much over that amount. Of course, we will buy it at the agreed price. But what to do if the price is below the guessed price? Remember, we have the RIGHT to BUY not OBLIGATION. So, we can buy or not depending on the stock price. 

    This is a very simple explanation on the question: What is options trading, but this is the essence. 

    The options are derivatives. That means their prices are derived from something else, frequently from stocks. The price of an option is connected to the price of the underlying stock. Options trading is possible with the stocks, bonds market, and ETFs, and the like.

    What are the advantages of options trading?

    Some investors are avoiding options because they believe they are hard to understand. Yes, they can be if your broker has a lack of knowledge about them. Of course, you can have less than need knowledge about options trading. But the truth is, it isn’t hard to learn because this kind of trading provides a lot of advantages. Keep in mind that options are a powerful tool so use them with the necessary diligence to avoid major problems.

    Sometimes, we think that characteristics like “critical” or “unsafe” are unfairly connected to the options. But when you have all the information about options you’ll be able to make a proper decision.

    Cost less

    One of the most important advantages of options trading is it will cost you less. Let’s see how it is possible.

    Yes, we know that some people will claim that buying options are riskier than holding stocks. But we want to show you how to use options and reduce risk. Hopefully, you will understand that all depend on how you will use them.

    First of all, we don’t need as much financial assurance as equities require. Further, options are relatively immune to the possible effects of gap openings. But the most important, options are the most dependable form a hedge. Are they safer than stocks though? Yes! 

    Lower risk

    Let’s say this way. When we are trading stocks, we have to set a stop-loss order to protect our position. We are the one who has to determine the price at which we are not willing to lose more. And here is the problem. Stops are designed to be executed when stocks trade at or below the limit we set. So, what if we place a stop-loss order at, for example, $36 for the stock we bought at $40. We don’t want to lose more than 10% on that stock. Our stop-loss order will become a market order and our stock will be sold when the price reaches $36 or less. This is how this order will work during the trading day but what can happen over the night? 

    How to use options as a hedge?

    Here is where the problems arise. Let’s say we closed stock at $38. Almost immediately after the opening bell, the next morning, due to the bad morning news about the company, our stock fell under $15. So that will be the price we’ll get for our stock. We’ll be locked in a great loss. The stop-loss order did nothing for us. If we bought the options as protection instead, we wouldn’t have such a great loss since the options never shut down after the closing bell. We would have insurance 24/7. 

    Can you understand how the options are a more dependable form of hedging?

    And as an additional choice to buying the stock, we could employ the stock replacement strategy. This means we would buy an in-the-money call instead of buying the stock. We have a lot of possibilities with options trading since the options mimic almost 85% of a stock’s performance. The benefit is that they cost 25% of the price of the stock. For example, if we bought an option at $25 instead of a stock at $100, our loss will be limited on that amount, not on the stock price. 

    Do options have higher returns?

    We don’t need to be a great mathematician (well, some of us are, that’s true) to understand that if we pay less and take the same profit, we have higher returns. That is exactly what options trading provides us. 

    Let’s analyze this part and compare the returns in both cases.

    For example, we bought a stock for, let’s say $100. You bought an option of that stock at $25. This stock has a delta of 70, so the option’s price will change 70% of the stock’s price movement. (This is a made-up example, please keep that in mind.)
    So, the stock price goes up for $10, and our position on this stock will give us 10% of the return. You bought an option and your position will give you 70% of the stock change (delta is 70, remember?) which is $7. 

    Do you understand?

    We paid the same stock $100, you paid $25.
    Our return on that stock is 10% which is $10; your gain on investment of $25 is $7 which is a 28% return on investment. Who made a better job?

    Of course, when the trade goes against you, options can impose heavy losses. There is a chance to lose your entire investment.

    Benefits of options trading

    Options trading can be a great addition to your existing investing strategy. They will give you leverage in your investing. You will have cheaper exposure to the stocks, increasing profits and losses when the stock price changes. One of the benefits is that options can reduce the risk in the overall portfolio. For example, a protective put trade. That is when you combine purchasing a put option to sell stock at a specified price. That will provide you the upside when the stock price rises but also, that will protect you from losses when the stock price drops. Also, you can earn by selling the options. You will receive the money even if the stock isn’t exercised. That is compensation for giving someone else the right to buy your stock but that one never did it. You’ll keep the money anyway.

    Bottom line

    Options offer more investment options. They are highly adjustable vehicles. You can use options for positions synthetics. But it is for advanced traders.
    But there are some extreme risks to options. Firstly, options can expire worthlessly. That will be a complete loss of whatever you paid for the options. Further, options are highly volatile. Many brokerages will offer options trading, but with some added requirements before they will let you trade options. 

    Also, speaking about options strategies, they will work well when you make many trades simultaneously. You have to know that options markets aren’t constantly liquid as the stock market. The simultaneous trades don’t always go ideally. So, your strategy may not work the way you expected. Many online brokerages will give you access to options trading with low commission costs. So, we all can use this powerful tool. But, take some time to learn how to use options accurately. It is still new for individual investors. 

    We’re doing smart trading.

  • Markets Are Down – Should We Invest Further

    Markets Are Down – Should We Invest Further

    Markets Are Down
    The spread of the coronavirus has disturbed investors. The fears of new outbreaks can push down global demand. The S&P 500 closed down 3% on Tuesday, the index is deeper in the red.

    Markets are down, an inverted yield curve is noticed, coronavirus is progressing and spreading all over the world. Everything tells us that we should be afraid. This inverted yield curve is proof of investors’ fears. They are starting to fear the worst and sell in panic. Almost all benchmark indexes are decreasing. While we have several things that can help- us to avoid infection by COVID-19, what can we do to protect our investments? 

    Stock markets suffered two big drops so far this week. Coronavirus outbreak made a great influence on the global stock markets. An economic downturn has increased quickly following China. It is the reality now in the US, Middle East, and Europe.

    The best sign of how this situation is difficult is visible among the investors who are looking for safe havens for their capital. But there are so many signs that worry us. The yields on U.S. government bonds are dropping to near-record lows and showing red flags. Further, returns are higher for short-term debt in comparison to the 10-years bonds meaning, yields continue inverted. Everything is opposite to the regular situation and some of the experts think that is the sign the recession is coming.

    But our intention is not to cry over this situation. We would like to discuss how to turn this market downturn to our benefit. Is it possible at all? We are receiving controversial information from our governments, experts have their interests also. That makes confusion among investors especially when it is so obvious that stock markets are down. As we said, let’s try to find the way out there. The mother of all questions is:

    Should we invest when the markets are down?

    In short, yes. Why shouldn’t we? We should invest in any case no matter if the stock markets are down, sideways, or they are up. The essence of investing is to reach settled financial goals. To do that we have to keep our eyes on our investments, to the stock prices, no matter what kind of market condition is. That’s a general duty while investing. Otherwise, everything will go apart.

    Let’s say you are going to shop and you notice that something you planned to buy is on discount. What will you do? Step away? Will you buy it or not? Of course, you will. When it comes to stocks, why would your decision be different? As far as we remember, investors’ mantra is “buy low, sell high”, right? Actually, when everyone is selling, the smart decision is to buy. That is according to Warren Buffett. But where is the catch? Don’t buy if you didn’t plan that or just because you saw someone is doing so. Buy only after you made a consistent plan of your investment. Buying cheap stocks just because they are on sale can be the wrong move.

    Buy, buy, buy

    We don’t want to diminish the influence of the coronavirus outbreak. It is a horrible situation, a possible dead-ending disease, very dangerous. But what we know is the financial markets have been almost immune to the influences of earlier epidemics. 

    Stock prices are affected by various outside factors and some of them have nothing to do with companies’ operations, that’s true. The prices will decline on the bad news such as the coronavirus outbreak or a downturn in the overall economy. But that has nothing to do with the company, to repeat. The circumstances like this one actually represent a great opportunity. For example, you were looking at some company for a long time and its stock was too pricey for you. Due to the markets down it becomes cheaper. Maybe you have enough capital to buy it since it is such a good market player. 

    We have a great reason to change our position and buy more stocks

    Why not? It is a good time to buy more at fire-sale prices. But what if you don’t have suitable cash to deploy? Think! Maybe you can find one or a few investments in your portfolio to sell and buy a new one.

    Always keep in mind, your investment decisions should be based on your financial goals, not managed by market movements. That’s why you should buy stocks when markets are down only if you wanted particular stock and it is suitable for your goals. Don’t rush with that because buying stocks just because they are cheaper at this very moment is also an emotional reaction as much as selling when the markets are down.

    What are we doing instead?

    Well, we are doing smart trading. We must have a plan, investing schedule and stick with it. That means we already planned some cash reserve and we are ready for a situation like this new market downturn is. So, we are able to look at this like a buying opportunity that comes.

    Buying stocks while everybody is selling isn’t a strategy without risk. There is always a chance that the market doesn’t go to the bottom. But if we buy when the markets are down, we have a chance to have larger gains when the market rebounds. More than the investors who didn’t buy.

    A few days of bad news are not a reason to sell in panic

    To be honest, drastic drops can be upsetting to look at. The markets trended upward for so long and suddenly we have this. But we have to consider this situation as a buying opportunity.
    The worst strategy when the markets are down is to sell your portfolio. Okay, maybe the worst of the worst is to take the short positions. The stock market knows how to punish investors who are too bearish.
    Rather, maintain a notable piece of your portfolio in stocks, even now when the stock markets are down. The point here is to be in position and take advantage when the markets turn forward. Of course, you would like to protect your portfolio against dangerous market forces as much as possible.

    So what and how to do it?

    Well, you have to reduce your stock exposure but you have to keep the main strengths. Keep the winners. You can sell the positions that are not performing well because they represent the weak part of your portfolio. So, during the market correction or situations like this one when the markets are down, those stocks or funds might get the most critical hit. Further, even when the markets are down you may have some positions that are extremely good but you assume that they will not play so well. Your actions should be – take a profit. Yes, why not? Just do it at market peaks to have profits.

    Further, consider the way you invest, maybe it’s time to change something. Maybe index-based ETFs are not the best choice, they work well during bull markets, but bear markets are less safe. 

    Don’t follow the prevailing sentiment and sell investments. Rather sell risky positions, for example, some with a high beta. Also, think about selling some with a history of volatility. Yes, we know there are some investors who sell their positions in the most steady companies to avoid losses. What we can say is that they are very nervous. Who else wants to sell everything and sit at the sideline? You know, the market will bounce back one day. But if you sell everything you hold now you will miss big gains when it happens. Sell risky investments only, as we said. Hold blue-chip companies!

    Bottom line

    The keyword for overcoming the market’s downturn is advance preparation. There is no better strategy. The nature of the stock market is to experience declines from time to time. Preparations mean having enough cash to provide ourselves more opportunities in investing. Think about this downturn as a normal cycle. As said, it is so normal for the stock market to go down after it reached its peak. Savvy investors made some other preparations while the market was at the peak. They already lowered their exposure on time.

    But it isn’t too late yet. At least once in life, every single investor has to deal with weak market conditions. So, we truly believe you are prepared for this one. Stay calm, lower your exposure to stocks, sell stocks that are not good players, buy more. But never try to stay at the market with knee-jerks reactions. Don’t sell in panic, that will ruin your investments, your capital, family and finally you. Stay stick with your investment goals and wait for the market to rebound. It is the only proper way to overcome the market’s downturns.

  • What Is Alpha In Investing – How to Beat the Market

    What Is Alpha In Investing – How to Beat the Market

    What Is Alpha In Investing
    Alpha represents a measure of an asset’s return on investment compared to the risk-adjusted expected return.
    Beta represents a measure of volatility. Beta measures how an asset moves versus a benchmark.

    What is Alpha? Alpha is a measure of the performance of an investment in comparison to a fitting market index, for example, the S&P 500. The base value is zero. And when you see the number one in Alpha that means that the return on the investment outperformed the overall market average by 1%. A negative alpha number shows that the return on the investment is underperforming in comparison to the market average. This measure is applicable over a strictly defined time frame.

    What is Alpha more? It is one of the performance ratios that investors use to evaluate both individual stocks and portfolio as a whole. Alpha is shown as a single number, for example, 1, 2, 5 but expressed as a percentage. It shows us how an investment performed related to a benchmark index. For example, a positive alpha of 4 (+4) suggests that the portfolio’s return outperformed the benchmark index’s performance by 4%.  But the alpha of negative 4 (-4) means that the portfolio underperformed the index by 4%. When alpha is zero that means that your investment had a return that met the overall market return.

    What is Alpha of a portfolio?

    It is the excess return the portfolio yields related to the index. When you are investing in some ETF or mutual funds you should look if they have high alpha because you will have better ROI (Return on Investment).

    But you cannot use this ratio solely, you have to use it together with a beta. Beta is a measure of investment volatility. The beta will show you how volatile one investment is compared to the volatility of, for example, the S&P 500 index.

    These two ratios are used to analyze a portfolio of investments and assess their theoretical performance.

    How to calculate?

    First, you have to calculate the expected rate of return of your portfolio. But you have to do that based on the risk-free rate of return, market risk premium, and a beta of the portfolio. The final step is to deduct this result from the actual rate of return of your portfolio.

    Here is the formula

    Expected rate of return = Risk-free rate of return – β x (Market return – Risk-free rate of return)

     and

    Alpha of the portfolio = Actual rate of return of the portfolio – Expected Rate of Return on Portfolio

    The risk-free rate can be discovered from the average annual return of security, over a longer period of time.

    You will find the market return by tracking the average annual return of a benchmark index, for example, S&P500. The market risk premium is calculated by deducting the risk-free rate of return from the market return.

    Market risk premium = Market return – Risk rate of return

    The next step is to find a beta of a portfolio. It is determined by estimating the movement of the portfolio in comparison to the benchmark index. 

    So, now when we have this result, expected rate of return, we can calculate further. We have to find the actual rate of return. It is calculated based on its current value and the prior value.

    And here we are, we have the formula for calculation of alpha of the portfolio. All we have to do is to deduct the expected rate of return of the portfolio from the actual rate of return of the portfolio.

    That was a step by step guide for this calculation.

    Becoming an Alpha investor

    There is a great discussion about should the average investor look for alpha results of a portfolio. But we can hear that investors mention alpha. This is nothing more than the amount by which they have beaten or underperformed the benchmark index. It can be the S&P 500 index if you are investing in the US stock market. In such a case, that would be your benchmark.

    For example, if the benchmark index is up 4% over the period, and your portfolio is up 6%, your alpha is +2. But if your portfolio is up 2%, your alpha is -2.

    Of course, everyone would like to beat the benchmark index all the time. 

    What is the Alpha investing strategy?

    We know that Alpha is a measure of returns after the risk is estimated. Risk is determined as beta, a measure of how volatile one investment is related to the volatility of the benchmark index.

    Alpha strategies cover equity funds with stock selection. Also, hedge fund strategies are a popular addition in alpha portfolios.

    Something called “pure alpha” covers hedge funds and risk premia strategies. The point is that by adding an alpha strategy to your overall portfolio you can boost returns of the other investment strategies that are not in correlation.

    Alpha is the active return on investment, measures the performance of an investment against a market index. The investment alpha is the excess return of investment relative to the return of an index.

    You can generate alpha if you diversify your portfolio in a way to eliminate disorganized risks. By adding and subtracting you are managing the risk and the risk becomes organized not spontaneously. When alpha is zero that means the portfolio is in line with an index. That indicates that you didn’t add or lose any value in your portfolio.

    When an investor wants to pick a potential investment, she or he considers beta. But also the fund manager’s capacity to generate alpha. For example, a fund has a beta of 1 which means it is volatile as much as the S&P index. To generate alpha, a fund manager has to generate a return greater than the S&P 500 index.

    For example, a fund returns 12% per year. That fund has a beta of 1. If we know that the S&P 500 index returns 10%, it is said the fund manager generated alpha returns.

    If we consider the risks, we’ll see the fund and the S&P index have the same risk. So, the fund manager generated better returns, so such managers generated alpha. 

    Alpha in use

    You can use alpha to outperform the market by taking more risks but after the risk is considered. Well, you know that risk and reward are in tight relation. If you take more risks, the potential reward will go up. Hence, limited risks, limited rewards.

    For example, hedge funds use the concept of alpha. They use beta too, but we will write later about the beta. The nature of hedge funds is to seek to generate returns despite what the market does. Some hedge funds can be hedged completely by investing 50% in long positions and 50% in short positions. The managers will increase the value of long positions and decrease the value of their short positions to generate positive returns. But such a manager should be a ninja to provide gains not from high risk but from smart investment selection. If you find a manager that can give you at least a 4% annual return without a correlation to the market, you can even borrow the money and invest. But it is so rare.

    Alpha Described

    What is alpha more? It is often called the Jensen index. It is related to the capital asset pricing model which is used to estimate the required return of an investment. Also, it is used to estimate realized achievement for a diversified portfolio. Alpha serves to discover how much the achieved return of the portfolio differs from the required return.

    Alpha will show you how good the performance of your investment is in comparison to return that has to be earned for the risk you took. To put this simply, was your performance adequate to the risk you took to get a return.

    A positive alpha means that you performed better than was expected based on the risk. A negative alpha indicates that you performed worse than the required return of the portfolio. 

    The Jensen index allows comparing your performances as a portfolio manager or relative to the market itself. When using alpha, it’s important to compare funds inside the same asset class. Comparing funds from one asset class, otherwise, it is meaningless. How can you compare frogs and apples?

    What is beta?

    When stock fluctuates more than the market has a beta greater than 1.0. If stock runs less than the market, the beta is less than 1.0. High-beta stocks are riskier but give higher potential returns. Vice versa, stocks with lower beta carries less risk but yield lower returns.

    Beta is usually used as a risk-reward measure. It helps you determine how much risk you are willing to take to reach the return for taking on that risk. 

    To calculate the beta of security, you have to know the covariance between the return of the security and the return of the market. Also, you will need to know the variance of the market returns. The formula to calculate beta is

    Beta = Covariance/Variance

    ​Covariance shows how two stocks move together. If it is positive that means the stocks are moving together in both cases, when their prices go up or down. But if it is negative, that means the stocks move opposite to each other. You would use it to measure the similarity in price moves of two different stocks.

    Variance indicates how far a stock moves relative to its average. You would use variance to measure the volatility of stock’s price over time.  

    The formula for calculating beta is as shown above.

    Beta is very useful and simple to describe quantitative measure since it uses regression analysis to gauge the volatility. There are many ways in which beta can be read. For example, the stock has a beta of 1.8 which means that for every 1% correction in the market return there will be a 1.8% shift in return of that stock. But we also can say that this stock is 80% riskier than the market as a whole. 

    Limitations of Alpha

    Alpha has limitations that investors should count when using it. One is related to different types of funds. If you try to use this ratio to analyze portfolios that invest in different asset classes, it can produce incorrect results. The different essence of the various funds will change the results of the measure. Alpha is the most suitable if you use it strictly for stock market investments. Also,  you can use it as a fund matching tool or evaluating comparable funds. For example, two large-cap growth funds. You cannot compare a mid-cap value fund with a large-cap growth fund.

    The other important point is to choose a benchmark index. 

    Since the alpha is calculated and compared to a benchmark that is thought suitable for the portfolio, you should choose a proper benchmark. The most used is the S&P 500 stock index. But, you might need some other if you have an investment portfolio of sector funds, for example. if you want to evaluate a portfolio of stocks invested in the tech sector, a more relevant index benchmark would be the Dow technology index. But what if there is no relevant benchmark index? Well, if you are an analyst you have to use algorithms to mimic an index for this purpose.

    Limitations of beta

    The beta is good only for frequently traded stocks. Beta shows the volatility of an asset compared to the market. But it doesn’t have to be a rule.  Some assets can be risky in nature without correlation with market returns. You see, beta can be zero. You should be cautious when using a beta.

    Also, beta cannot give you a full view of the company’s risk outlook. For short-term volatility it is helpful but when it comes to estimating long-term volatility it isn’t.

    Bottom line

    What is alpha? It began with the intro of weighted index funds. Primarily, investors started to demand portfolio managers to produce returns that beat returns by investing in a passive index fund. Alpha is designed as a metric to compare active investments with index investing. 

    What is the difference between alpha and beta?

    You can use both ratios to compare and predict returns. Alpha and beta both use benchmark indexes to compare toward distinct securities or portfolios.

    Alpha is risk-adjusted. It is a measure that shows how funds perform compared to the overall market average return. The loss or profit produced relative to the benchmark describes the alpha. 

    On the other hand, beta measures the relative volatility of assets compared to the average volatility of the entire market. Volatility is an important part of the risk. The baseline figure for beta is 1. A security with a beta of 1 means that it performs almost the same level of volatility as the related index. If the beta is under 1, the stock price is less volatile than the market average. And vice versa, if the beta is over 1, the stock price is more volatile. There is some tricky part with beta value. If it is negative, it doesn’t necessarily mean less volatility. 

    A negative beta means that the stock tends to move inversely to the direction of the overall market.

  • P/E Ratio An Quick Method to Value a Stock

    P/E Ratio An Quick Method to Value a Stock

    P/E Ratio An Quick Method to Value a Stock
    Investors use the P/E ratio to unveil the relative value of a company’s stock. Also, the P/E ratio can be used to compare a company’s historical data or to compare markets as a whole over time.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    The  P/E ratio or price to earnings ratio calculates the market value of a stock in relation to its earnings and do it by comparing the market price per share by the earnings per share. To put this simple, the P/E ratio indicates how much the market wants to pay for a particular stock based on its current earnings.

    Investors often use the P/E ratio to assess a stock’s fair market value by predicting future earnings per share.

    It is one of the most broadly used methods for determining a stock value. It can show if a company’s stock price is overvalued or undervalued. But the P/E ratio can reveal a stock’s value in comparison with other stocks from the same industry. This ratio is also called a “multiple” because it shows how much an investor is willing to pay for one dollar of earnings

    That is why the P/E ratio is also called a price multiple or earnings multiple. Investors use this ratio to determine how many times earnings they are willing to pay.

    Calculate the P/E ratio

    The formula is simple. Just divide the market value price per share by the company’s earnings per share.

    P/E ratio = share price/earnings per share

    Earnings per share or EPS is the volume of a company’s profit for each outstanding share of a company’s common stock. It is a kind of indicator of financial health. Earnings per share present the part of a company’s net income that would be gained per share if all the profits is paid out to its shareholders. If traders and investors want to discover the financial health of a company they use EPS.
    In P/E calculation, the amount of “earnings” or “E” is provided by EPS.

    P/E = EPS/Saher Price

    Where the symbols show:

    P/E = Price-to-earnings ratio
    Share Price = Market value per share
    EPS = Earnings per share

    ​ For example, at the end of the year, ABC company reported basic or diluted earnings per share of $3 and the stock is selling for $30 per share. Let’s find the P/E ratio:

    EPS = $4
    Share Price = $30 

    This ABC company P/E ratio was: 

    P/E = $30/$4 = $7.50

    So, the company was trading at ten times earnings. So what? This indicator isn’t helpful without comparison to something. As we said, this figure has to be compared to the historical P/E scale of this company stock, or to peers from the same industry.

    For example, this P/E ratio was lower than the S&P 500 (the S&P 500 average is about 15 times earnings) but we can compare this P/E ratio to peers. And we noticed that the company XYZ had the P/E ratio of 11 at the end of the same year. What can we conclude? Well, ABC’s stock is undervalued. It is lower than, for example, the S&P 500 and for the same period, had lower P/E than its peers.

    You can calculate this ratio for each quarter also but it is common to calculate it at the end of the year.

    Use the P/E ratio to calculate earnings yield

    This is particularly useful. The formula is actually inverted P/E ratio and looks like this:

    Stock’s Earnings Yield = (EPS / Share Price) x 100

    or in our ABC company case:

    earnings yield = (4/30) x 100 = 13.33

    Can you see, to calculate the stock’s earnings yield you have to divide EPS by share price and multiply by 100 to turn it into percentages.

    The earnings yield of a stock is the percentage of each dollar invested in company stocky. It is calculated by dividing earnings per share of the company to its share price. 

    And as you can see, our ABC company has a low P/E ratio but high earnings yield. That will always be like this, the stock with a lower P/E ratio has a higher earnings yield, and the stock with a higher P/E ratio has a lower earnings yield. 

    This lets you easily compare the return you are earning from the underlying company’s business to other investments. Also, this will provide you to avoid to get in bubbles, panics, and fears. It gives you an insight into the stock market and directs on the underlying economic facts.

    Of course, you don’t need to perform all these math even if it is totally simple. This is especially important for beginners in the market. 

    The majority of stock market sites will automatically figure the P/E ratio and you can see it immediately. With help of this number, you can understand the difference between a stock that is selling at a high price because it suddenly became an analysts’ darling and a stable company that is out of analysts’ kindness and investors are selling it for a part of what it truly deserves.

    The two types of EPS metrics 

    Forward P/E ratio

    The most common types of P/E ratios are the forward (also known as leading) P/E and the trailing P/E.
    The forward P/E uses expected earnings guidance instead of trailing figures. It is useful when you want to compare the current earnings to the future.
    While it is helpful it also can lead you to some confusion. The main problem is that companies often underestimate earnings. The reason behind this is they want to beat the estimated P/E when they announce the next quarterly earnings. Also, some companies will declare too strong and enthusiastic the estimation but later adapt it in the next earnings report. Of course, there are always analysts to provide estimates but can confuse too.

    Trailing P/E ratio

    The trailing P/E the most popular P/E metric. It takes into account past performances. To calculate the trailing P/E you have to divide the current share price by the EPS earnings for the last 12 months. Investors mostly like trailing P/E because it is more objective.
    But this ratio also has weaknesses since the past performances don’t guarantee future performances. It is always better to invest money based on future earnings chances. 

    The other problem is the EPS figure is constant. You know the stock price is changing. If some company event pushes the stock price higher or lower, the trailing P/E will not reflective of those changes in full. The trailing P/E will alter as the price of a company’s stock moves because earnings are published each quarter. On the other side, stocks trade every day.  That’s why investors favor forward P/E. When the forward P/E ratio is lower than the trailing P/E, you can be sure the analysts are expecting earnings to increase. And vice versa.

    What are the limitations of P/E?

    The P/E ratio has some limitations. When it is low you may think the stock is good but the stock isn’t good just because it is cheap. You have to know the growth rate, free cash flow yield, dividend yield, and many other metrics also, to make a qualified decision when buying a stock.

    Build a diversified portfolio that not only holds assets that were handsome but also reduces risk.

     

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