Tag: Portfolio

All investing and trading portfolio articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

 

  • Investment Portfolio Rebalancing – Why Should We Do That?

    Investment Portfolio Rebalancing – Why Should We Do That?

    Investment Portfolio Rebalancing - Why Should We Do That?
    Even if you’re a less aggressive investor, you should rebalance your portfolio at least once a year.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    You invested your hard-earned money for the long term, you added your lovely stocks, bonds, whatever, and thought everything is done and suddenly somebody told you’ll need investment portfolio rebalancing. What? Should you find an accountant? What you have to do? How to perform that investment portfolio rebalancing? What does it mean, at all?

    That is the main key, the fundamentals of investing. You have to do two main things: building it and investment portfolio rebalancing. 

    The investment portfolio is a collection of your investments. You hold stocks, bonds, mutual funds, commodities. The allocation of the assets you own has to be done based on your risk tolerance and your financial goals. But nothing is finished with the moment you bought your lovely assets. It is just a beginning. After a few years or sooner you’ll notice that different assets generate different returns and losses as well. Some stocks may have nice and high returns, so they become a large part of your portfolio. Much bigger than you wanted. 

    Assume you built up a 60/40 portfolio where 60% were in stocks. But after some time, you found that the value of those stocks represents over 80% of your portfolio’s overall value. What you have to do? Honestly, it is the right time for investment portfolio rebalancing.

    Investment portfolio rebalancing means that you have to adjust your investments, you have to change the asset allocation of the portfolio to obtain your desired portfolio outlook.

    Why is investment portfolio rebalancing important?

    It will help you to keep your desired target asset allocation. In other words, to keep the percentage of assets you want to hold adjusted to your risk tolerance and to earn the returns you need to reach your investment goals. If you hold more in stocks, you’re taking on more risks since your portfolio will be more volatile. That might have a bad influence on your portfolio because the value will change with changes in the market. 

    But stocks look like a better investment than bonds due to their ability to outperform bonds as a long-term investment. That is the reason to hold more stocks than bonds in your portfolio but as a reasonable portion to avoid additional risk.

    In periods when the stock market performs well, the portfolio’s money value that’s come from stocks will grow along with stock price rise. We already mentioned this possible scenario when your 60% of holdings in stocks rise to over 80%. This means your portfolio can become riskier. So, you’ll need investment portfolio rebalancing. How to do that? Simply sell stocks until you manage them to represent 60% of your portfolio. For the money received from that selling, you can buy some less volatile assets such as bonds, for example. 

    The drawbacks of investment portfolio rebalancing

    However, there are some problems if you rebalance your portfolio during the time when the markets are doing well. Even more, it can be hard to sell stocks that are doing well, they are your winners and their prices might go even higher. What if you miss huge returns?

    But consider this. What if they drop and you lose an important amount of money? Are you okay with that? 

    Remember, every time you sell any asset that is an excellent player, you are actually locking in gains. That’s real money and you can use it to obtain some stocks that are not such a good player but you’ll buy them at a bargain. Do you understand what you actually did? You sold high and bought low. You’re every single investor’s dream. You made it happen! 

    The real-life example 

    Our example of rising to 80% is rather drastically than a realistic one. Investment portfolio rebalancing ordinarily means selling 5% to 10% of your portfolio. We are pretty sure you are able to choose 5% of your winners and to buy some current losers but in the long run also winners. Investors usually buy bonds instead of stocks when rebalancing their portfolios. 

    Investment portfolio rebalancing is important because it provides you balanced asset allocation and, what is also important, in this way you’ll avoid additional volatility of your portfolio. If you’re the risk-averse type of investor this added risk might produce bad investment decisions. For example, you might sell stocks at a loss.

    Investment portfolio rebalancing is the best way to follow your financial plan and obtain the best returns adjusted to your risk tolerance. Anyway, you don’t need to be overweight in stocks because the markets are cyclical, and it could be a matter of time when the next reverse will come.

    Why rebalancing your investment portfolio?

    Let us ask you. Are you having a car? Do you change the oil or broken parts from time to time? The same is with your investment portfolio even if it is the best created. As we said, the markets are cyclical and some parts of your portfolio might not play well in every circumstance. Why should you want to hold a stock that isn’t able to meet your investing goals or you bought it by mistake?
    It isn’t hard to rebalance your portfolio, at least once per year. In short, that is investment portfolio rebalancing. If you think your investment portfolio is well-diversified among asset classes, just think again. Maybe it is diversified among asset classes but is it diversified within each asset class?

    For example, why would you like to hold only Swiss biotech stocks? There is no reason. Moreover, it can be dangerous. It can hurt your investment portfolio a lot. It is better and safer if you hold a mix of different stocks, domestic and foreign from different sectors.

    What if some of the investments grow in value while others decline? 

    In the short term, it is good. In the long run, it can be a disaster. That is the reason to rebalance your portfolio promptly and properly. Otherwise, your portfolio will be hurt as well as your overall returns.

    For example, you own 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds. Sometime later, your stocks performed unsuccessfully and their value is lower now, but bonds performed outstandingly. So, what do we have here? Bad performers – stocks at lower value and bonds as excellent players at a higher value. Would you think to change the proportion in your portfolio? Of course, you would. So, what do you need to achieve that? 

    Let’s examine a different mix. For example, you may rebalance your portfolio and now it will be 40% in stocks and 60% in bonds. But what is the consequence if you don’t rebalance your portfolio and stay with your initial mix? You will not have enough capital invested in stocks to profit when stocks come growing back. Your returns will be below expected.

    What if stocks were growing in value while bonds did unsuccessfully? Or, what if your portfolio turned into a collection of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, and quickly the stock market dropped? You’ll have greater losses, much bigger than it is possible with rebalanced the 50/50 mix. In short, you had more money in stocks. Your long-term gains are in danger.

    To make a long story short, when rebalancing, you have to cut the over-performing stocks and buy more underperforming assets. The point is to sell overvalued stocks and buy less expensive but with good prospects. Do you understand this? We came up again to the winning recipe: buy low, sell high.

    How often should you do that?

    The answer is short, once or twice per 12 months mostly. Markets are cyclical and unpredictable. However, if you rebalance at an uncertain period of the year you’ll put your money at risk. Never avoid rebalancing your portfolio after significant market moves. Follow a 5-percent rule. Your investments should be within 5% of where they were when you build your portfolio. For example, if your initial portfolio was with 60% in stocks (you were smart to buy good players) and after several months they changed to 65% or over, it’s time to rebalance. In case you weren’t so smart and you bought poor performers and they changed to 55% or below, it is also time to rebalance. You have to prevent your portfolio from fluctuating more than 5%.
    That’s the whole wisdom.

  • How to Create a Trading Plan

    How to Create a Trading Plan

    How to Create a Trading Plan
    A trading plan is a set of rules and guidelines that define your trading performance, financial goals,  rules, risk management and criteria for entry and exit positions.

    Why is it so important to know how to create a trading plan? Because if you know how to create a trading plan, you’ll know on which market to trade, how to cut your losses, when to take profits and find other opportunities for investing. But first, we have to understand what a trading plan is.

    A trading plan is…

    It is a full decision-making tool that helps you determine what, when, and how to trade. Every trader has an individual trading plan suited only for her/his style, goals, risks tolerance, capital available, motivation for trading, the market you want to trade. 

    A trading plan is a methodical tool that helps traders to identify and trade securities. If you want to have a successful trading plan you have to take into consideration a number of variables such as time, risk and goals. A trading plan gives you control of how you will find and execute trades, the conditions you will buy and sell assets. Moreover, it determines how large a position you will take, how to manage it. Also, your trading plan will determine what assets you can trade, as well as when to trade or when not to.

    But there is also one important step more. Never invest before you make your trading plan because your capital might be at risk. A trading plan will guide your decision-making process.

    To know how to create a trading plan you must understand it is different from a trading strategy. Trading strategy means you know how and when to enter and exit the trade.

    The benefits of knowing how to create a trading plan

    Since the trading plan defines the reasons why you are making a trade, when and how you are making a trade, it is an outline of all your trades. If you follow your trading plan, you’ll be able to minimize errors and losses.

    Okay, creating a trading plan isn’t the most exciting thing you can do in your lives, and maybe that’s the reason why so many traders think about it as an irrelevant thing. How to think about the trading plan while some sexy things jump every second? News, charts, trend lines, hot stocks are more exciting, right? Wrong!

    Without a trading plan, you cannot use all these sexy tools, you have to couple them with your plan to produce reliable results.

    What do you think now, do you need to know how to create a trading plan?

    Frankly, the trading plan is not necessary to make a trade. You can trade without a plan. But, if you want to hit the road of successful traders, you will need it. We are pretty sure you don’t want a hold-and-pray strategy because it isn’t a strategy at all. It is a sure way to lose everything you have. Maybe it’s better to go to a casino where there will be more chances to win something. Remember, trading isn’t gambling. 

    And without a trading plan, you’re gambling. The truth is that you may have some winning trades from time to time, but your progress will be questionable. Your losses will be bigger than gains, think about this and do smart trading. Learn how to create a trading plan, so create it.

    How to create a trading plan?

    Follow the old saying: If you fail to plan, you plan to fail. Every trader should follow this expression as it is written in stone. While trading you have only two choices: to follow a trading plan and have a chance to win or trade without a plan and lose with almost 100% possibility.

    So, let’s create a trading plan and see what you have to take into consideration while doing that. Here are some hints.

    First, set your goals. 

    What do you want to get from the trade? Please, be realistic about your expectations toward profits. This will come with a bit more experience. Experienced traders, for example, expect the potential profit triples the risk.

    Can you see how much you have to be focused on risk? So, you must focus on risk. Your trading plan has to mirror your risk tolerance level. You have to determine how much risk you are willing to take. How much of your portfolio are you willing to risk on one trade? And you have to do that for every single trade. The regular risk range is from 1% to 5%, but usually, it is 2%. If your account is small you can take a bit more risk to get a bigger position. But if you lose a predetermined amount at any period in the day, you get out and stay out. Take a break, and then attack another day, when things are going your way.

    Do your research before you enter the trade. 

    Explore the big winners, take a look at the stock charts and find possible spurs to the value of a stock. Be careful while doing this. Your research has to be accurate as it can help you discover if the stock is going to perform in your direction. You can’t be sure 100%, but it will be easier for you to know that you did everything possible to avoid losses.

    Importance of entry and exit in a trading plan

    Every serious trader plans entries and exits. This means you must have a plan on when you enter the trade and where you exit. For that purpose, we are recommending our tool. 

    You must give equal importance to the exit of a trade if you want to make a profit.
    Set a stop-loss, to secure your pull out if things aren’t going in your direction. But you really have to get out at that point. Do you know your profit target? Get out when your profit target is met, don’t be greedy. 

    Take a pen and write down your plan

    Exactly. It is the best way to show how responsible you are toward your capital invested. It is your hard-earned money, you don’t want to fool around with that. Put your trading plan in a visible place, stick it to your computer, for example. Yes, we are recommending your trading plan has to stare at you all the time while you are trading.

    When you exit your trade, review it afterward. You will need to study how the trade went. If something was right or wrong you will be able to repeat or avoid it. So, take notes and keep them in your trading log.

    What do you have to determine else?

    Your stock trading plan should include additional factors to ensure it is completed.

    First is liquidity

    Liquidity can be a problem. When trade stocks this can be a serious element that needs to be considered because you can find a lot of stocks with very low liquidity. This doesn’t mean you should trade only large-cap stocks. You wouldn’t like to limit your opportunities.
    Just filter out the stocks without enough turnover to get in and out of the market quickly. For example, you can trade stocks that have an average daily turnover of 10 or 15 times the size of the position you want to take. Don’t avoid small stocks because they can provide you to trade wider.

    Second is volatility

    Your trading plan should take into account the volatility of the stocks. Some stocks are more volatile some less but, generally speaking, the stocks are volatile. This should befall your trading rules as part of a trading plan. So, adjust your trend filter for the volatility of the stocks. You may have a lot of benefits using that. Your trading plan should be adjusted for what you will do if stocks go bankrupt or are taken over at a premium. You have to position yourself if it happens and you have to do so in advance to protect your overall portfolio.

    Bottom line

    A trading plan should consist of all these factors mentioned above. The stock liquidity, volatility, risks, goals. Consider them when writing it. But even if you do this and more, there is no guarantee that your trades will make you money. As we said numerous times, the stock market is a zero-sum game. It is a system of winning and losing. You have to be prepared for that. One day can be extremely successful but the others could be a total disaster. There is no profit without risk and you can’t always win without an occasional loss. Remember, if you lose a battle, you may win the war. Don’t expect every trade to be a success and every stock in your portfolio to be a winner. Let your profits rise and lower your losses. That’s the way to win this game. 

    We hope you have a better picture of how to create a trading plan now.

  • What Is Options Trading Examples

    What Is Options Trading Examples

    What Is Options Trading?
    In options trading, the underlying asset can be stocks, commodities, futures, index, currencies. The option of stock gives the right to buy or sell the stock at a definite price and specified date. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Before we explain deeper: what is options trading, we need to understand why we should trade options at all. If you think it something fancy, you couldn’t be more wrong. Actually, the origin of options trading came from ancient times. For example, Ancient Greeks were speculating on the price of olives before harvest and traded according to that. When someone asks you: what is options trading and argues that it belongs to modern stock brokerages just tell such one about trading olives. 

    From the first day of trade existence, people were trying to guess the price of food or some item they wanted to buy. 

    What is options trading?

    We have a simple example to answer the question: “ What is options trading.”

    Let’s say we want to buy a stock at $10.000. But the broker tells us that we can buy that stock at $20 and the time is limited so we have to make our decision in a short time frame but we don’t know “ what is options trading.” This broker’s offer means that we have to pay $20 now and get a right to buy the stock after one month. Well, our right, in this case, obligates the seller to sell us that stock at $10.000 even if the price increases in value after one month. This $200 will stay in the broker’s account forever. We will never get it back. But we got the right to buy the stock at the price we are willing to pay. 

    How does options trading work?

    We understand there is a chance that the stock price will increase much over $10.200, we want to pay our broker an extra $200 to provide us the right to buy the stock at $10.000. Moreover, we saved the rest of our $10.000 so we can keep it or invest in something else while waiting for the end of the period.

    Okay, the end is here, the one-month period is over so what is the next? Well, we have the right to buy that stock at $10.000 and we noticed the price is much over that amount. Of course, we will buy it at the agreed price. But what to do if the price is below the guessed price? Remember, we have the RIGHT to BUY not OBLIGATION. So, we can buy or not depending on the stock price. 

    This is a very simple explanation on the question: What is options trading, but this is the essence. 

    The options are derivatives. That means their prices are derived from something else, frequently from stocks. The price of an option is connected to the price of the underlying stock. Options trading is possible with the stocks, bonds market, and ETFs, and the like.

    What are the advantages of options trading?

    Some investors are avoiding options because they believe they are hard to understand. Yes, they can be if your broker has a lack of knowledge about them. Of course, you can have less than need knowledge about options trading. But the truth is, it isn’t hard to learn because this kind of trading provides a lot of advantages. Keep in mind that options are a powerful tool so use them with the necessary diligence to avoid major problems.

    Sometimes, we think that characteristics like “critical” or “unsafe” are unfairly connected to the options. But when you have all the information about options you’ll be able to make a proper decision.

    Cost less

    One of the most important advantages of options trading is it will cost you less. Let’s see how it is possible.

    Yes, we know that some people will claim that buying options are riskier than holding stocks. But we want to show you how to use options and reduce risk. Hopefully, you will understand that all depend on how you will use them.

    First of all, we don’t need as much financial assurance as equities require. Further, options are relatively immune to the possible effects of gap openings. But the most important, options are the most dependable form a hedge. Are they safer than stocks though? Yes! 

    Lower risk

    Let’s say this way. When we are trading stocks, we have to set a stop-loss order to protect our position. We are the one who has to determine the price at which we are not willing to lose more. And here is the problem. Stops are designed to be executed when stocks trade at or below the limit we set. So, what if we place a stop-loss order at, for example, $36 for the stock we bought at $40. We don’t want to lose more than 10% on that stock. Our stop-loss order will become a market order and our stock will be sold when the price reaches $36 or less. This is how this order will work during the trading day but what can happen over the night? 

    How to use options as a hedge?

    Here is where the problems arise. Let’s say we closed stock at $38. Almost immediately after the opening bell, the next morning, due to the bad morning news about the company, our stock fell under $15. So that will be the price we’ll get for our stock. We’ll be locked in a great loss. The stop-loss order did nothing for us. If we bought the options as protection instead, we wouldn’t have such a great loss since the options never shut down after the closing bell. We would have insurance 24/7. 

    Can you understand how the options are a more dependable form of hedging?

    And as an additional choice to buying the stock, we could employ the stock replacement strategy. This means we would buy an in-the-money call instead of buying the stock. We have a lot of possibilities with options trading since the options mimic almost 85% of a stock’s performance. The benefit is that they cost 25% of the price of the stock. For example, if we bought an option at $25 instead of a stock at $100, our loss will be limited on that amount, not on the stock price. 

    Do options have higher returns?

    We don’t need to be a great mathematician (well, some of us are, that’s true) to understand that if we pay less and take the same profit, we have higher returns. That is exactly what options trading provides us. 

    Let’s analyze this part and compare the returns in both cases.

    For example, we bought a stock for, let’s say $100. You bought an option of that stock at $25. This stock has a delta of 70, so the option’s price will change 70% of the stock’s price movement. (This is a made-up example, please keep that in mind.)
    So, the stock price goes up for $10, and our position on this stock will give us 10% of the return. You bought an option and your position will give you 70% of the stock change (delta is 70, remember?) which is $7. 

    Do you understand?

    We paid the same stock $100, you paid $25.
    Our return on that stock is 10% which is $10; your gain on investment of $25 is $7 which is a 28% return on investment. Who made a better job?

    Of course, when the trade goes against you, options can impose heavy losses. There is a chance to lose your entire investment.

    Benefits of options trading

    Options trading can be a great addition to your existing investing strategy. They will give you leverage in your investing. You will have cheaper exposure to the stocks, increasing profits and losses when the stock price changes. One of the benefits is that options can reduce the risk in the overall portfolio. For example, a protective put trade. That is when you combine purchasing a put option to sell stock at a specified price. That will provide you the upside when the stock price rises but also, that will protect you from losses when the stock price drops. Also, you can earn by selling the options. You will receive the money even if the stock isn’t exercised. That is compensation for giving someone else the right to buy your stock but that one never did it. You’ll keep the money anyway.

    Bottom line

    Options offer more investment options. They are highly adjustable vehicles. You can use options for positions synthetics. But it is for advanced traders.
    But there are some extreme risks to options. Firstly, options can expire worthlessly. That will be a complete loss of whatever you paid for the options. Further, options are highly volatile. Many brokerages will offer options trading, but with some added requirements before they will let you trade options. 

    Also, speaking about options strategies, they will work well when you make many trades simultaneously. You have to know that options markets aren’t constantly liquid as the stock market. The simultaneous trades don’t always go ideally. So, your strategy may not work the way you expected. Many online brokerages will give you access to options trading with low commission costs. So, we all can use this powerful tool. But, take some time to learn how to use options accurately. It is still new for individual investors. 

    We’re doing smart trading.

  • Calculate Portfolio Performance

    Calculate Portfolio Performance

    Calculate Portfolio Performance
    Don’t base the success of your investment portfolio on returns alone. Use these three sets of measurement tools to calculate portfolio performance.

    The main goal to calculate portfolio performance is to measure the value created by the investor’s risk management. The majority of investors will judge the success of their portfolios based on returns. But it isn’t enough. To have a sense of how our investment portfolio is well-diversified and how much risk we take we need to calculate portfolio performance. In other words, we need a measure of both risk and return in the portfolio to judge its success. Until the 1960s no one paid attention to the risks involved in obtaining returns. But today we have several ways to calculate portfolio performance and measure it. 

    Our aim is to present you with these valuable tools. 

    Sharpe, Jensen and Treynor ratios pair risk and return performances, and unite them into unique value. Well, each of them operates a bit differently so we can choose one to calculate portfolio performance or mix all three ratios.

    Calculate Portfolio Performance Using Sharpe Ratio

    Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of an investment portfolio. Or in other words, by calculating it we can find a measure of excess return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. It is common to use the 90-day Treasury bill rate as the representative for the risk-free rate. This ratio is named after William F Sharpe. He is a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.

    The formula is:

    ​Sharpe ratio= (PR−RFR) / SD

    ​In this formula, PR represents the expected portfolio return, RFR is the risk-free rate, while SD represents a portfolio’s standard deviation which is a measure for risk. Standard deviation reveals the variation of returns from the average return. So we can say that if the standard deviation is great, the risk involved is also great. 

    So, you can see how the Sharpe ratio is simple to calculate since it has only 3 variables. 

    But let’s calculate portfolio performance more realistic. For example, our portfolio has a 20% rate return. The whole market scored 15%. So, we may think that our portfolio is greater than the market, right? But it isn’t a proper opinion. How is that? Well, we didn’t calculate the risk we had to take to earn such a great rate return. What if we took much more risk than we thought. That would mean that our portfolio isn’t optimal. Let’s go further in this analysis. Imagine that our portfolio has a standard deviation of 15% and the overall market has 8%, and the risk-free rate is 3%. This is just a random example. Let’s calculate portfolio performance now using the Sharp ratio formula.

    Sharp ratio for our portfolio: (20 – 3) / 15 = 1.13

    and

    Sharp ratio for the market: (15 – 3) / 8 = 1.5

    Can you see now?

    While our portfolio scored more than the overall market, our Sharpe Ratio was notably less. So, our portfolio with a lower Sharpe Ratio was a less optimal portfolio even though the return was higher. This means we took an excess risk without extra bonus. But it isn’t the same case when it comes to the overall market, it is actually the opposite. When the market has a higher Sharpe ratio, it has a higher risk-adjusted return. The best portfolio is not the portfolio with the highest return. Rather, an excellent portfolio has a higher risk-adjusted return.

    Sharpe ratio is more suitable for well-diversified portfolios because it more correctly considers the risks of the portfolio. 

    Jensen ratio

    The Jensen ratio gauges how much of the portfolio’s rate of return is attributable to our capability to produce returns above average, and adjusted for market risk. 

    The Jensen ratio measures the excess return that a portfolio produces over the expected return. This figure of return is also recognized as alpha. Let’s say that our portfolio has positive excess returns, so it has a positive alpha. On the other hand, a portfolio with a negative excess return has a negative alpha.

    The formula is:

    Jenson’s alpha = PR−CAPM

    Here, PR stands for portfolio return and CAPM is risk-free rate+β( beta). We know that beta is the return of the market risk-free rate of return.

    ​By using Jensen’s alpha formula we can calculate an investment’s risk-adjusted value. It is also known as Jensen’s Performance Index or ex-post alpha. Jensen’s alpha tries to determine the unusual return of a portfolio no matter what assets it consists of. This formula was first introduced by the economist Michael Jensen. Investors use this formula to calculate portfolio performance by enabling them to discover if an asset’s average return is adequate to its risks.

    Regularly, the higher the risk, the greater the expected return. So, that’s why evaluating risk-adjusted performance is especially important for making investment decisions. It will allow doing this. 

    This Jensen’s alpha also can be expressed as 

    Jensen’s alpha = Portfolio return – ((Risk-Free Rate + Portfolio Beta x (Market Return – Risk-Free Rate))

    The alpha figure can be positive or negative. When it is higher positive values that suggest better performance in comparison to expectations while negative rates showed that the assets perform below expectations. Jensen’s alpha is expressed in percentages. 

    Let’s take the example of a stock with a return per day based on CAPM. And we see that it is 0.20% but the real stock return is 0.25%. So, Jensen’s alpha is 0.05%. Is it a good indicator? Yes, you can be sure.

    The purpose of this measure is to help investors to go for assets that grant maximum returns but with minimum risks.

    For example, you found two stocks that are offering similar returns. But one with less risk would be more profitable for investors than the one with greater risk. When calculating Jensen’s alpha you would like to see a positive alpha since that indicates an abnormal return.

    Treynor ratio

    The Treynor ratio is very useful to calculate portfolio performance. It is a measure that uses portfolio beta,  a measure of systematic risk. That is different from the Sharpe Ratio that adjusts return with the standard deviation. 

    This ratio represents a quotient of return divided by risk. The Treynor Ratio is named after Jack Treynor, the economist, and developer of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

    The formula is expressed as:

    Treynor ratio = (PR−RFR) / β

    The symbols are well-known, PR stands for portfolio return, RFR refers to the risk-free rate and β is portfolio beta.

    We can see that this ratio takes into account both the return of the portfolio and the portfolio’s systematic risk. From a mathematical viewpoint, this formula expresses the quantity of excess return from the risk-free rate per unit of systematic risk. And just like the Sharpe ratio, it is a return/risk ratio.

    Let’s assume we would like to compare two portfolios. One is the equity portfolio and the other is the fixed-income portfolio. How can we decide which is a better investment? Treynor Ratio will help us pick the better one.

    To put this simply, assume for the purpose of this article only, the equity portfolio has a total return of 9%, while the fixed-income portfolio has a return of 7%. Also, the proxy for the risk-free rate is 3%. Further, let’s suppose that the beta of the equity portfolio is 1.5, while the fixed-income portfolio has a beta of 1.25

    Let’s calculate for each portfolio!

    Treynor ratio for a equity portfolio = (9% – 3%) / 1.5 = 0.040 

    Treynor ratio for a fixed-income portfolio = (7% – 3%) / 1.25 = 0.032

    So, the Treynor ratio of the equity portfolio is higher which means a more favorable risk/return option. Since the Treynor ratio is based on past performance it is possible not to be repeated in the future. But you will not rely on just one ratio when making an investment decision. You have to use other metrics too.

    For the Treynor ratio, it is important to know that the negative value of beta will not give exact figures. Also, while comparing two portfolios this ratio will not show the importance of the difference of the values. For instance, if the Treynor ratio of one portfolio is 0.4 and for the other 0.2, the first isn’t surely double better.

    Bottom line

    To calculate portfolio performance we have to determine how our portfolio has performed relative to some benchmark. Performance calculation and evaluation methods fall into two categories, conventional and risk-adjusted. The most popular conventional methods combine benchmark and style comparison. The risk-adjusted methods are focused on returns. They count the differences in risk levels between our portfolio and the benchmark portfolio. The main methods are the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s alpha. But there are many other methods too.

    But one is sure, portfolio performance calculations are a key part of the investment decision. Keep in mind, portfolio returns are just a part of the whole process. If we never evaluate the risk-adjusted returns, we will never have the whole picture. That could lead to wrong decisions and losses, literally.

  • Stock Market Capitalization Is Important And Here Is Why

    Stock Market Capitalization Is Important And Here Is Why

    Stock Market Capitalization
    Market capitalization represents the valid measure of a company’s value. The calculation is simple and easy but helpful.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Stock market capitalization or market cap represents the total value of the company’s outstanding shares on the market. As you can find in our Trading dictionary, this is the market value of a publicly-traded company’s outstanding shares.

    It is essential for every investor and whoever enters the stock market should know this. You can often hear or read about stock market capitalization in the news, books, or when financial experts are talking about it. But if you want to enter the stock market or you are already there but without experience, it is so important to understand what the stock market capitalization is.

    Why is the stock market cap important? How to use it? Can we calculate it? What does it tell us about a company? Take it easy! We will answer each of these questions and more.
    First of all, you can’t find a better measure of a company’s size than the market cap is. If you don’t know the size of the company how can you know what you can expect from its stock?

    Luckily, the stock market capitalization is easy to calculate. The whole process is simple and everyone can learn it easily.

    Understanding market capitalization

    Market cap rates a company’s worth on the stock market where it is publicly traded. But also, it shows the stock market’s opinion of a company’s prospects because it reveals how much investors want to pay for its stock.

    Let’s say you want to create an investment strategy. Well, you cannot do that without knowing about the company’s size, risks, returns. Only by having all this data you can create an investment strategy that will help you to achieve your long-term investing goals. Moreover, by knowing the market capitalization of some company you’ll be able to balance and diversify your investment portfolio with a mixture of different market caps.

    To repeat, a stock market capitalization notes the total value of all shares of stock of some company. Or simpler, it is how much it can cost you to buy all shares of the stock of a company. Of course, at the current market price.

    How to calculate the stock market capitalization?

    The formula is very simple and clear. It isn’t like some other market data full of fabrications, twists, frauds. To calculate the stock market cap you’ll need two data. One is the number of shares outstanding and the other is the current stock price.

    Once you have all the data, it’s quite simple.

    The current shares outstanding x the current stock market price = The stock market capitalization

    Simple as that.

    But we will give you an almost real example. 

    Let’s say some company has 5 million shares of stock outstanding and its stock trades at $50 per share. Assume you would like to buy all of them. 

    5 million x $50 = $250 million

    So, you would need $250 to buy every single share of this company. Wall Street would say that the stock market cap of this company is $250 million.

    Can you see how simple it is? All you have to do is to gather two figures and multiply them.

    Why is this so important concept?

    Some would say that this measure has the strengths and weaknesses and such people would be right. And here is why.

    If you want to compare one company versus others, the stock prices can give you the wrong picture. Stock market cap will never take into account capital structure specifics and that is what may let the share price of one company to be higher than others. On the other hand, it is good because this provides investors to assume the relative sizes of the companies.

    For example, an investor would like to compare the company ABC to the company XYZ. 

    ABC company’s stock price is, for example, $20 with a market cap of $300 million.
    XYZ company’s stock price is $200 and its market cap is $150 million.

    Which stock to buy? Cheaper or expensive? 

    And it’s time to explain this dilemma and how to solve it.

    Sizing up stocks

    There’s a typical misunderstanding that a company’s stock price is more important than its market capitalization. This mistake happens to new investors. Market capitalization is the main factor when you’re deciding a stock. It can tell you about the value of a company.

    How is possible the stock with price at $200 worth less than stock with price at $20? 

    What you have to avoid is a misconception that the per-share price of a stock will give you any perception of the value in comparison to the other stock. It will never do that. It practically gives no insight to investors. The stock price is something very changeable and various companies have a different amount of outstanding shares. So, don’t pay attention to the per-share stock price since it will not give you even a hint about the value of the company. For that, you’ll need to know the market capitalization figure. We already explained how to calculate the stock market cap.

    Market cap measures a company’s size, and size will show you what to expect from its stock if you buy them.

    The large companies are more stable, they have proven themselves over time. But here is the tricky part, large companies are limited. Frequently, they have no room to develop further.
    As a difference, small companies have plenty of room to grow. At the same time, smaller companies are new, its business is riskier and yet have to prove themselves. Their chances of failure are higher.

    Stock market capitalization ranges

    Companies are ranged in one of three large groups based on their size. So we have large-cap, midcap, and small-cap. 

    Large-cap: Market value of $10 billion to $200 billion; usually older, famous companies.
    Mid-cap: Market value of $2 billion to $10 billion; these are the companies expected to endure fast growth.
    Small-cap: Market value of $300 million to $2 billion; these are young companies usually from emerging industries and new technologies.

    But also, we can recognize mega-cap with more than $200 billion, on the top of this range and micro-cap of $50 million to $300 million, on the bottom of this range.

    The impacts on market cap

    Actually, there are several factors. First of all, important changes in the value of the shares since it can change the number of issued shares. No matter if it is up or down. For example, the exercise of warrants on a company’s stock could boost the number of outstanding shares. That can reduce its current value because the exercise of the warrants is performed lesser than the market price of the shares. Hence, it is reasonable to expect an impact on the company’s market cap.

    The market cap will not be changed after a stock split or a dividend. Well, the stock price will decrease because the number of shares outstanding increased after a split. For example, the share price can be halved. Despite the fact that the number of shares outstanding and the stock price is altered, the market cap will stay the same. The same comes with a dividend. When the company issues a dividend, the number of shares will increase but the market cap is the same.

    Build a portfolio by using market capitalization

    You can divide your portfolio by market-cap size. The smaller companies grow faster, but big, well-known companies provide more stability, also pay dividends. If large caps are decreasing in value, small caps or midcaps may increase and help recompense losses. To build a strong portfolio with a decent mix of small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap stocks, you have to determine your investment goals,  time horizon, and risk tolerance. A diversified portfolio that holds different market caps can reduce the risk and help your long-term financial intentions.

  • Asset Allocation: A Method To Use

    Asset Allocation: A Method To Use

    Asset Allocation: A Method For 2020
    Before you start with asset allocation you have to choose what kind of investor you want to be. How do you see yourselves, like conservative, moderate or even aggressive investors?

    For any investor, filling the investment portfolio with a proper mix of stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, and other investments is critical to financial well-being. This mix is known as “asset allocation.”  The tricky part is that you cannot find a unique one that could suit all. Every investor must find own based on risk tolerance, timeline, and financial goals.

    But even if you already defined what assets you want in your portfolio, it is still easy to get lost. Well, you want to optimize your portfolios, but you are gathering news every minute. And you are changing your decisions based on them. So, the consequence is that is more likely you have some “confused” portfolio, an assemblage of everything instead of a well-diversified portfolio.

    Your portfolio has to be built with the goal of delivering income.

    The asset management landscape is changing

    First of all, In 2020 we can expect a huge rise in assets. It is predictable that economies in, let’s say, Asia, Middle East or Africa will grow faster than in areas with developed economies. 

    Extension in assets will be driven by several trends. One of them is the increase of wealthy individuals in those areas. So, we can expect the asset management landscape in 2020 will be changed. What investors have to do? Investors have to adjust their portfolios to new circumstances. 

    The investors should consider what caused an unusual change of growth and returns last year. Will the same conditions continue into this year? Will global economic growth returning to the trend? What about trade tensions? Is it over? All of this must influence investors’ decisions when building the investment portfolio and asset allocation.

    The effect of asset allocation

    The purpose of diversification is to avoid extremes. Asset allocation has to provide investors to score high returns, reduce volatility, protect them to have significantly lost capital. 

    You can accomplish this by asset allocation. All you have to do is to divide your investments into different classes of assets. Spread it into stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash. They will act separately from each other and your investment will be protected. Of course, you can spread your investment into cryptocurrencies, gold, commodities, or something else. Asset classes can be further divided into several sub-sectors.

    Asset allocation is extremely important. Some studies reveal that asset allocation has a tremendous contribution to a portfolio’s overall returns. Even bigger than individual stock pick. Economists Paul Kaplan and Roger Ibbotson wrote that more than 90% of a portfolio’s long-term returns were generated by asset allocation. So,  asset allocation has an important role in long-term returns.

    How to start?

    The first important step is to determine the target return. The issue is simply – by how much your portfolio has to grow to match your financial goals. But think about another issue too – what is your risk tolerance. How much risk are you able to take to gain a higher return?

    You have to do all of this before choosing the investment strategy. If you are a buy-and-hold type you’ll be able to allow a higher level of risk. You will have periods with lower returns but they will be substituted with periods of higher-than-expected returns. So, it’s easy when you are an investor with a long horizon. But if you are not, if your time horizon is shorter, you’ll favor a lower risk portfolio.

    Conservative Investing

    Conservative investors tend to hold bonds. Their portfolios consist of 60%-80% in bonds of different maturity dates, different issuers. Well, bonds are not without risk, to be honest. Over the past few years, interest rates are rising and it causes bond prices to fall. The bond market can crash as well as the stock market. Do you remember 1979/1980? By some calculations, investors had losses more than $400 billion in total. 

    For example, baby boomers. They are inclining to conservative asset allocation. Their portfolios consist of over 70% in bonds. They control about 65% of all bond assets, by the way.

    Modern asset allocation

    There is something named modern portfolio theory and consequently, modern methods of asset allocation. This means a huge range of asset classes and sub-asset classes into portfolios.

    At its core, modern portfolio theory is all about diversifying your asset allocation. 

    Modern portfolio theory is assumed to help reduce return risk by diversifying into many assets. But the first assumption of this theory is that asset classes are not in correlation. The point is to look at your investment as component parts of a whole. To be more clear, if one asset drops, the other will jump. It is just like a permanent zig-zag. Each investment is a moving gear. According to this theory, investors should balance a potential risk and returns but in the manner on how they might influence the risk and returns of the overall portfolio.

    Start investing

    Yes, you can do that, you can turn plans into dollars. 

    Just create portfolios to maximize the anticipated return based on an acceptable level of risk.

    Don’t time the market. You have to look at your investment in the long term since the time in the market is very important. Do not let violent fluctuations or volatility disturb you. You are investing with your goal in mind.

    Yes, you are more satisfied with less risk and nervous with grown risk. Moreover, you prefer the portfolio with the least risk, but one with the highest return possible and with the lowest risk.

    Modern portfolio theory asserts that the risk for individual stock returns has two components: systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is the market risk and you cannot avoid it. For example, recessions, interest rates, wars are that kind of risk. The unsystematic risk is specific to individual stocks. Management changes, lessening the company’s operations, and similar, are unsystematic risks. You can lower this type of risk if you have a well-diversified portfolio and good asset allocation. 

    Proper portfolio building is difficult. It isn’t easy. 

    Asset allocation is portfolio diversification

    The goal of asset allocation is to maximize the returns of a portfolio and reduce the risks.

    Stocks will give you strong returns over a long time but they are volatile and inclined to periods ups and downs. But the combination of national and foreign stocks is healthy because sometimes one country is overvalued while another country is undervalued. 

    There are two main approaches to asset allocation.
    Strategic Asset Allocation
    Tactical Asset Allocation

    Strategic asset allocation indicates holding a passive diversified portfolio. Meaning, you will not change your asset allocations based on market conditions. You will hold, add money and re-balance.

    If you choose this strategy, you have to build a diversified portfolio of index funds or ETFs. From time to time you’ll re balance it. For example, when one asset class is increasing and another is decreasing in price. All you have to do in order to maintain the same weighting is to sell the increasing one and buy the underperformed assets.

    Tactical asset allocation is complex and relates to almost permanent adjusting your weightings to different asset classes. You have to recognize where good risk/reward ratios are in the market. 

    The benefit is that you can really reduce volatility and increase returns. Though it’s more tending to individual failure, and if you do it badly you will decrease your returns.

    Bottom line

    Everyone would ask what’s the best asset allocation for a certain age? Here is one simple way to calculate it. 

    Subtract your age from 100 –  that’s the percentage you should keep in stocks. For example, if you’re 40, you should hold 60% of your portfolio in stocks. If you’re 80, you should hold 40% of your portfolio in stocks.

    But some advisors would recommend you to subtract your age from 110 or even 120 since people are living longer and longer. 

    When you choose what kind of investor you want to be whether conservative, moderate or even aggressive, it is time to focus on the asset allocation method. Spread it into allocations over particular investment categories: large, mid, small, and foreign stocks. 

    Balanced asset allocation in your portfolio is the right way to become a successful investor.

  • Coffeehouse Portfolio The Lazy Portfolio

    Coffeehouse Portfolio The Lazy Portfolio

    Coffeehouse Portfolio The Lazy Portfolio
    This is another in a series of lazy portfolios and one of the most popular. There is no single “coffeehouse portfolio” and an investor can adjust the basic version to own needs and investing goals.

    This lazy portfolio, Coffeehouse portfolio, that financial advisor Bill Schultheis made famous in his book “The Coffeehouse Investor” is so simple.
    The Coffeehouse portfolio is built of 7 funds. The basic version starts with the composition of 60/40 stock/bonds. The fixed income part is put into a bond fund (you have to choose). The 60% in stocks is divided equally between six index funds. That index funds are a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund,  a small-cap value fund, a foreign fund, a REIT fund, and a large-cap fund.

    “Investing should be dull,” said Nobel economist Paul Samuelson. Yes, some would say the same. But we have to be honest. This kind of portfolio maybe isn’t suitable for some Millennials experienced in investing. The Coffeehouse portfolio is too much dull. On the other hand, it is good. All you have to do is to set it up and live your lives.

    And this discovery is amazing. 

    You can hear investors saying the same thing again and again: You need some simple but well-diversified portfolio. You don’t need more than several funds (4, 5, 9 whatever), but pay attention, as you are a novice, they have to be low-cost and able to create winners during both bear and bull markets. 

    That’s the point with lazy portfolios. There is no active trading, no market timing, and of course, no commissions. Moreover, they are simple. Well, someone may ask what happens with assets absent from such a portfolio. Forget it! You don’t care!

    How to structure Coffeehouse portfolio

    It is quite simple, as we said and here is one example:

    10% Vanguard 500 Index
    10% Vanguard Value Index
    10% Vanguard Small-Cap Index
    10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index
    10% Vanguard REIT Index
    10% Vanguard Total International Index
    40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index

    Or

    10% Large-Cap Stocks
    10% Small-Cap Stocks
    10% Large Value Stocks
    10% Small Value Stocks
    10% REITs
    10% Total International Stocks
    40% Bonds

    As you can see in this portfolio, it is massive on the REITs, is slight on international stocks, and misses diversity on the fixed income side.

    Roll the dice

    Basically it is a “slice and dice” portfolio. So we can say it isn’t a “total market” example of the portfolio. A total-market portfolio consists of 1/3 equal parts of a total bond market index, total stock market index, and total international stock market index. But this “slice and dice” portfolio seeks to benefit from the higher returns. There is a higher risk when investing in value stocks and small stocks.  And, as you can see, this portfolio has a massive collection of both small, and value stocks.

    The 60% piece of the Coffeehouse portfolio represents 6 different funds that cover a different part of the market. That is a really good part of this portfolio since it is adding to the diversity.

    The rest of the 40% of the portfolio is a total bond fund that includes the whole of the bond market.

    It is recommended to rebalance the Coffeehouse portfolio every year. That secures that the asset allocation percentages are held at the accurate amounts. But it can be an individual decision for every investor, there are no rules what is the accurate amount.

    Modifications of this lazy portfolio

    As you can see this portfolio holds more bonds. It is more than some average investors would like to hold, especially if you are young. To make a comparison, the target-date funds, for instance, for Vanguard hold 10% bonds until investors are 45. We found some of the Trinity University studies and one shows that even investors in retirement should own 50/50 portfolios or even more aggressive. 

    Honestly, the Coffeehouse portfolio favors small-cap and value stocks. And do it with reason. Historically they have had higher returns and which means higher volatility too. But you can tweak the portfolio.

    How to adjust the Coffeehouse portfolio

    One method is to reduce your exposure to bonds (for example you could hold 10% of them) and split the rest of the portfolio equally into six funds. In this way, you’ll have a much more aggressive portfolio if you like that. But keep in mind, that is riskier at the same time and you must know how much risk you are able to handle.

    Why not invest in the Coffeehouse portfolio

    Firstly, for some investors, this portfolio hasn’t enough international exposure. It holds only 10% of Total International Stocks. Secondly, the 40% bond allocation will reduce your returns, you can be sure. Also, rebalancing can be expensive. There are too many funds to set them up. 

    For young investors, it isn’t so easy to just buy and hold. What if the prices are going up and down frequently? How to stay calm and do nothing? That’s the tricky part of any lazy portfolio. 

    Also, as we said above, the Coffeehouse portfolio can be too conservative for some investors. Where has the excitement of investing gone? Yes, you can adjust the portfolio as we described but still. Hence, to be honest, the one size that suits all methods sometimes don’t work for everyone. Especially if you prefer to be a more aggressive investor.

    Why invest in this portfolio

    Allocation on the value stocks is an advantage. The value stocks have outperformed growth stocks for 20%, according to historical data. Also, since this portfolio holds 20% small-cap stocks, it is good because they have outperformed large caps. Historically speaking, of course. By being a lazy portfolio and holds 40% in bonds, the Coffeehouse portfolio is less risky. 

    Bottom line

    A creator of this portfolio is Bill Schultheis. He wrote a book about dullness investing. He had found that when you simplify your investment decisions, you end up with better returns. 

    His book “The Coffeehouse Investor” explains why investors should stop holding top-level stocks or mutual funds, and stop attempting to beat the stock market. Instead, keep stick to three clever principles: 

    1) There is no free lunch
    2) Never put all eggs in just one basket
    3) Save for rainy days

    Sure, there is one more. Don’t pay too much attention to daily ups and downs in the stock market. It can ruin your life. But with investing in the principle buy-and-hold, with an annual rebalancing of your portfolio, it is more likely that you will build your wealth. There’s nothing wrong with adjusting the CoffeeHouse portfolio. It’s more important that you stick with your plan. The weighting of your allocations is less important but has to be reasonable. And a note for newbies, sometimes it is smarter to be a bit conservative especially in the stock market. 

    And here is a bit of statistics. Behavioral finance professors  Brad Barber and Terry Odean discovered: “The more you trade the less you earn.” Buy-and-hold investors are doing better than traders. Active traders can lose a lot of money paying transaction costs and taxes. 

    The truth is that active traders can turn their portfolios over for more than 250% per year, but their returns can be just like 11% after paying tax. Opposite, buy-and-hold investors can turn their portfolios over a bit around 2%, making around 18% returns. 

    Finally, this is just one of the numerous approaches to investing. You are the one who has to choose. It’s all up to you.

  • Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio

    Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio

    Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio
    When stock prices drop, bond prices increase. A portfolio that holds stocks and bonds plays better than the one that holds only stocks.

    Diversification means to spread the risk across different types of investments. The main purpose of diversification is to enhance your chances of investment success. In other words, you are betting on every one.

    Diversification is very important in investing because markets can be volatile and extremely unpredictable. If you diversify your portfolio, you will reduce the chance to lose more than you are prepared to.

    And that is exactly what you would like in investing: to spread your capital among different assets. So you’re not relying on a single asset for all of your returns. The key advantage of diversification is that it provides you to minimize the risk of losing the capital invested.

    What is diversification?

    Diversification means building a portfolio of your investments in a way that the majority of the assets will have a different reaction to the same market performance. For example, when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds. In opposite circumstances, bonds could play better than stocks. Hence, if you hold both stocks and bonds, you will reduce the risks in your portfolio from market swings. 

    Let’s make this more clear. What do you have in your pantry? Only beans? Of course not! When you went to the grocery you bought everything you need for the week or month ahead. The same should be with your investment portfolio. It should consist of various assets. But not too many. Too many assets mean you will not be able to follow their performances. If you are fresh in the stock market, maybe a two-fund portfolio is a good choice for you. More about this you can read HERE. 

    Think of these various types of groceries as the different areas, techniques, and areas available to you as an investor. If you have a variety of assets, you’ll be better protected. In the situation when one of your assets is hit by the risk you will still have the others that can give you a profit.

    Reasons for diversification

    Even the explanation is so simple you can still find so many investors that play on one card. You may ask how some really smart guys could avoid diversification and put all eggs in one basket? We couldn’t find the proper answer because the benefits are so obvious.

    By diversification, investors lower the overall risk. It is logical how this works. When you spread your investments in various classes (diversifying them) you have more chances to avoid the negative influence in your portfolio. For example, let’s say you invested in stocks only and you hold a stock of just one company. Yes, we know you like it, it is a good company, famous, well-run. But if suddenly something unpleasant hit it and the stock price drops, let’s say, for 30%, how that occasion will influence your overall portfolio? You will lose 30% of your portfolio.  But let’s consider the other situation. Let’s say that stock makes up a modest part of 5% in your portfolio. So, how much of your overall portfolio you will lose now? Can you see where is the benefit of diversification? It lowers the risk. Even during economic downturns, you will still have good players in your portfolio. Hence, if you have bonds and stocks added to your portfolio, it is more likely that even one of them will run well during particular circumstances. Bonds will play better when the economy is decreasing, but when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds.

    Diversification and investment strategy

    You can find various investment strategies but two are most popular: growth and value investing.

    Value investors tend to consider the strength of a company and its management. They would estimate if the company’s stock price is undervalued based on its true worth. 

    On the other side, growth investors would estimate how fast the company is growing, could its new products stimulate future earnings, etc.
    By taking just one strategy you can miss out on the benefits of the other. But if you spread your investments on both of these strategies, it is pretty sure that you’ll be able to enjoy the benefits of each.

    Influence of “home country bias”

    Well, it is completely natural that investors are more attracted to their own state markets, the national industry. That’s how we come to the “home country bias”  in investing. Of course, it is a natural tendency. But it can be a problem too. “Home country bias” can limit your investments to the offer from domestic markets. But what is needed for profitable and successful investing is to step out of your comfort zone. Foreign markets can be profitable also. What you have to do as an investor is to add some international fund or company to your portfolio. It is good protection and well-done diversification. Diversification across international markets will protect your investments if the domestic economy downturns (no one wants that, of course) or during the recession in your country. Several years ago we heard one of the investors saying it isn’t a patriotic gesture. Well, we have to say, investing isn’t an act of patriotism. It is all about profit.

    Produces more opportunities

    Eventually, diversification produces more opportunities if you make smart choices that deliver balance to your investment portfolio. 

    For example, you only invest in stocks. But suddenly some great opportunity occurs to invest in, for example, bonds. What will you do? Refuse to invest in bonds because you are not comfortable with them and risk to miss potential profit? We don’t think it is a smart idea. Never miss the opportunity to earn more, that isn’t in the nature of investing. Admit, you will never miss this opportunity to invest in bonds if you have a diversified portfolio. So, diversification gives you more opportunities to invest.

    Protect and improve your finances

    It is important to understand all the benefits of diversification. It isn’t hard to do. Actually, it is very simple. You have to read more, learn and be patient. If you diversify your investment portfolio you will have a chance to build stable finances over time.

    How to diversify your portfolio

    Firstly, never be too much invested. You will not be the winner if you own hundreds of assets. Okay, let’s say this way. Your portfolio is your team. And, as in every team, each part plays its role. No coach will put all players in one position. It’s stupid. Plus, how such a team will win anything? Of course, zero chances! 

    The point of diversifying is to hold investments that able to work separated tasks on your team. 

    Every single part of your portfolio should have a different role. For example, if you prefer stocks, diversify your portfolio to S&P 500 (that would provide you exposure to large-caps) and add some small-caps.

    If you have a bond portfolio diversify it across short and long bonds, or higher-quality bonds, etc. That will reduce the risks. Or just add alternative investments in your portfolio. For example, private equity, hedge funds, real property, venture capital, commodities, etc.

    Bottom line

    How will you know you’re diversified? A well-diversified investment portfolio will never move in the same trend and at the same time. You must have one thing on your mind: you are the manager of your portfolio. Also, it is almost impossible for all investments to grow all the time. It is 100% sure that some of your positions will be lost, will lose you money. When that happens you will need the other holdings to balance that fall.

    Diversification guards you against producing an undesired risk to your capital. Anyway, it is too risky to put all your money into one single investment. The key to diversification is to spread your money across asset classes and to allocate within classes. That is a smart approach.

  • What is Riskier Bonds or Stocks?

    What is Riskier Bonds or Stocks?

    (Updated October 2021)

    What is Riskier, Bonds or Stocks?
    In some scenarios, bonds are riskier than stocks. The main problem is how to run your investments stable but not cutting the growth stocks have to give.

    Do you think the stocks are riskier than bonds? Well, stock prices are more volatile than bonds, that’s the truth. Also, bonds are paying fixed income. What else is on the bond side? Well, not much. Maybe these two is all since bonds could be riskier than stocks. The whole truth is that bonds are very risky for the companies, but at the same time, less risky for investors. Speaking about stocks, they are less risky for the companies but for investors, they can be extremely risky.

    So, why do so many people think that bonds are less risky? We have to solve this dilemma: what is riskier, bonds or stocks.

    The most and least risky investments

    There are so many factors that have an influence on how some investment will perform. Honestly, all investments carry some level of risk. Speaking about bonds, they are under the great influence of inflation while stock investors may not feel it so much. Stocks have some other kind of risks, for example, liquidity risk. Such a problem bond investments don’t have.

    Firstly, stocks are the riskiest investments, but they also give excellent potential for high returns. Stocks or equity investments cover stocks and stock mutual funds.

    Bonds or Fixed Income Investments cover bonds and bond mutual funds. They’re less risky than stocks but generate lower returns than stocks.

    The third-place belongs to cash or certificates of deposit, money market funds, Treasury bills, and similar investments. They are giving lower returns than stocks or bonds but carry a little risk also.

    What are stocks and bonds?

    To understand what is riskier, bonds or stocks we have to make clear what each of them is. There are two main concepts of how companies can raise money to finance their businesses. One is to issue stocks and the other is to issue the bonds. 

    Stocks and equity are the same. Both define ownership in a company and can be traded on the stock exchanges. Equity defines ownership of assets after the debt is paid off, so it is a bit broader term. Stock relates to traded equity. Equity also means stocks or shares.

    In the stock market tongue, equity and stocks are the same.

    Stocks

    Stocks will give you an ownership stake in the profits of the business, but without the promise of payment. That’s why stocks are riskier. The companies may decide to pay dividends but nothing else is an obligation. While holding the stocks the value of your investment will vary related to the company’s profit. Stocks are also dependent on investors’ sentiment and confidence. Anyway, stocks are safer for companies since they are a sure way to raise the money needed to maintain business. For investors, stocks are riskier since the companies don’t have any obligation to provide any kind of return. If the company is growing and rising profit, investors will obtain capital gains.

    Bonds

    Bonds are parts of debt issued by companies and transformed into assets to be able to trade in the market. Bonds give fixed interest rates also called coupons to bondholders. The companies have to pay the interest rate before any dividend to stockholders. Otherwise, the bonds go into default. Also, bonds are conversely related to interest rates, meaning, when rates go up, bond prices drop. 

    Can you see now? How to answer the question of what is riskier, bonds or stocks? For investors, stocks are a riskier investment, for the companies, the bonds are riskier. 

    Bonds vs Stocks

    The majority of investments can be classified as bond investments or stock investments. In stock investment, you are buying an asset and your profit depends on the performance of that asset. If you buy a y a thousand shares of Tesla, your profit is based upon the stock dividend which Tesla pays (if any) and upon the fluctuation of the value of Tesla shares.

    In a bond investment, you actually loan money to a company or a government. With a bond investment, your profit is not related to the performance of the company. If you buy a $2,000 bond from Tesla, for example,  and the company earns a record profit, your profit will be the same as if Tesla didn’t make a profit at all. But here is the risk involved with the bond investment. What if the company is unable to pay back the debt? You can lose all your investment.

    Stock investment is recognized as a higher risk. But risk makes a profit, therefore you will earn a higher return over the long term. 

    So, what is riskier, bonds or stocks?

    Risks and rewards of stocks investments

    Stock investments offer higher risks but greater rewards. A lot of things influence that. An increased sales, for example, or market share, or any improvement or development of the company’s business, literally anything can shift the stock price and skyrocket it. So, investors can earn by selling them or by receiving the dividends.  

    Any company can succeed or stumble. That’s the reason why nobody should invest in just one company. Do you know the saying: Never put all eggs into one basket? But if you hold stocks from several companies you will ensure high returns over the long term. 

    But, so many investors couldn’t watch the unfortunate events without selling their stocks at a loss. 

    Well, if you don’t have a stomach for that just stay away from the market or, which is a better choice, diversify your investment portfolio. Add some bonds-based investments, that will help you when the stock market gets rough. Moreover, a well-diversified portfolio will give you a bumper by providing lower volatility and calm play. So, you will not be forced to sell your investments and feel stress while making decisions. 

    Bottom line

    So, do you have the answer what is riskier, bonds or stocks?
    Yes, stock prices fluctuate more than the prices of bonds but that doesn’t necessarily mean more risk for the investor. There are a lot of cases when bonds are riskier than stocks.

    For example, over a high inflationary period when inflation is surging quickly, the bond price can be damaged, decreased. The inflation will decrease the value of payments, and the bonds will mature less valuable.  

    On the contrary, stocks can boost their prices during inflation. The companies could raise prices of their products and increase their profits. That would raise the value of their stock, even higher than the inflation rate. 

    Can you see how the bonds might be riskier investments than stocks?

    During the regular economic conditions, stocks could be much riskier than bonds.

    Stock prices could sink sharply. Hold! Don’t sell! Wait for a while, wait for a stock to bounce back in price. And you know what, when the stock prices are falling, there is no better moment to buy them and hold. Just pick a well-established company. 

    The point is that bonds are not always the safest asset. They can be very risky. In some scenarios, stocks can be a much safer choice. 

    Savvy investors will buy both to diversify portfolios. Of course, how many of each you will hold isn’t set in stone. You can change it over your lifetime as many times as you want to reach your goals and earn a profit.

  • 7Twelve Portfolio – Craig Israelsen Strategy

    7Twelve Portfolio – Craig Israelsen Strategy

    7Twelve Portfolio - Craig Israelsen Strategy
    The Israelsen 7Twelve is intended to protect the portfolio against losses. The portfolio has 7 different asset classes and 12 different funds. Each fund has the same weight of 8.3% or 1/12 of the overall portfolio.

    7Twelve, a multi-asset balanced portfolio, is developed by Craig Israelsen, Ph.D. in 2008, today he is a principal at Target Date Analytics. As a difference from a traditional two-asset 60/40 balanced fund, the 7Twelve strategy covers various asset classes in an investment portfolio. The purpose is to improve performance and reduce risk. This represents a totally new school of a balanced portfolio.

    The number 7 describes the number of asset classes proposed to add to your portfolio. The number 12 (twelve) outlines the number of separated mutual funds that fully represents the 7 asset classes in your portfolio. 

    The roots

    Craig Israelsen was a teaching family finance at Brigham Young University. One day he got an interesting question: What should be in a diversified portfolio? Even if he thought how the question is interesting,  Israelsen didn’t have the right answer at that very moment. The subject was so provocative that Israelsen developed a unique formula for portfolio diversification. It was 2008.

    which has been catching on with financial planners. The name 7Twelve Portfolio came from Israelsen himself.

    The reason is simple. His new portfolio consists of 12 equal parts of mutual funds pulled from seven fund types: real estate, natural resources, U.S. equity, non-U.S. equity,  U.S. bonds, non-U.S. bonds, and cash. But it was the first version based on historical data to 1970. Later, as the markets changed, he added U.S. midcap, emerging markets, natural resources, inflation-protected bonds, and non-U.S. bond funds.

    7Twelve strategy

    Each mutual fund in the 7Twelve strategy is equally weighted and represents 1/12th of the portfolio. This allocation is managed by adjusting the portfolio back to equal parts monthly, quarterly or annually.

    7Twelve model is the “core” of an investment portfolio. Any investor may add individualized assets around the core. But one thing is obvious, using 7Twelve can improve the efficiency and the portfolio performance for the investor because it is a strategic model and doesn’t rely on tactical moves or changes.

    Investing by using 7Twelve strategy

    There are some statistical data that support the idea of how Israelsen’s portfolio model is better than traditional. For example, if we observe the Vanguard Balanced Index fund (consists of 60% U.S. stocks and 40% U.S. bonds) from 1999 to the end of 2014, we will find that it had an average annual compound return of 5.7%. In the same period, the 7Twelve portfolio would return 7.6%, as Israelsen calculated it. The result showed that the 7Twelve portfolio had smaller losses in bad years,  and that is the point of a well-diversified portfolio, right?

    Some experts argued with Israelson, claiming that he made 7Twelve by back-testing which allocations have had the best performances in the recent past. If yes, why and how would he equally weight assets? In such a case, the returns would be different.

    The value of 7Twelve is its simplicity. Actually, it can be easily adjusted for each investor individually.

    The advantages

    7Twelve portfolio gives a wide diversification because all known asset classes are covered. So, you can get excellent diversification across many asset classes. Simplicity is a great part. It is so easy to follow 12 funds or ETFs, equal-weighted. Moreover, this model is one of the rare that includes mid-cap stocks. Maybe the most useful part is a great opportunity for rebalancing monthly, quarterly or annually. That possibility is giving reduced risk and increased returns.

    Rebalancing the 7Twelve Portfolio

    Rebalancing is an important part of the 7Twelve plan. It is very simple. All you have to do is bringing each of the 12 funds in your particular 7Twelve model back to their given allocation (1/12 or 8.33% in the core 7Twelve model). 

    For example, if you had some funds that performed better in the, let’s say the prior quarter, just deposit more into the funds that were underperformed in the same quarter. In this way, you are rebalancing the account of all funds in your portfolio. That is how you have to manage your portfolio, without emotions.

    Let’s say your investment 7Twelve portfolio is $10.000 worth. If you don’t re-balance it, you will lose 13 bps over 20 years. That is empirical evidence. In money, it is almost $920.

    The full info you can find HERE

    It is a strategic portfolio. All you have to do is to set the percentages and rebalance them when they get out of balance. And you can stay relaxed until some market events ask for you to rebalance. Generally, a good idea. Just view this portfolio graphically.

    Bottom line

    Every single investor would admit that diversified investing is a great and ultimate thing for everyone in the market. But the reality shows that the ordinary investor hasn’t too much experience in building a diversified investment portfolio. Most investors are holding a portfolio of several mutual funds. That isn’t diversification. 7Twelve provides investors the possibility to build a diversified, multi-asset portfolio.

    In many articles and books, Craig Israelsen explained how simple it is to maintain a strong portfolio with a plan. And it is. Moreover, it provides investors to reduce risks of investing.

    The deeply diversified portfolio avoids losses efficiently, decreasing the usual deviation of return, and frequency of losses. A well-diversified non-correlated portfolio provides a good return and low volatility. 

    What people don’t like about 7Twelve?  Firstly, some think there are too many commodities. 

    Secondly, some stated that this strategy is boring. Investors who like to check their portfolios every hour a diversified portfolio could be. The same comes to investors that like to detail-manage their investment.  But no one says this is an unreasonable portfolio. Contrary. Literally, you can find plenty of good portfolios and this is one of them. The main problem is that only a small number of investors have been using this portfolio for a long time despite the fact it is created more than 10 years ago. 

    The most important thing is to choose one and stick with it, through the highs and deeps.