Category: Traders’ Secrets

Traders’ Secrets is something that everyone would like to know, right?
How is it possible that some traders are successful all the time while others fail to make a profit all the time?
That is exactly what Traders’ Secrets will show you.
Traders-Paradise’s team reveal all trading and investing secrets to you, our visitors.

What will you find here?

How to find, buy, trade stocks, currencies, cryptos. You’ll find here what are the best strategies you can use, all with full explanation and examples.
Traders-Paradise gives you, our readers, this unique chance to uncover and fully understand everything and anything about trading and investing. The material presented here is originated from the experience of many executed trades, many mistakes made by traders and investors but written on the way that teaches you how to avoid these mistakes.

Moreover, here you’ll find some rare techniques and strategies that are successful forever, for any market condition. Also, how to trade with a little money and gain consistent returns. By following these posts you’ll e able to trade with greater success. You’ll increase your profits and your wealth, of course.

The main secret of Traders’ Secrets is that there shouldn’t be any secret for traders and investors. Rise up your trade by reading these posts, articles, and analyses!

You’ll enjoy every word written here. Moreover, after all, your trading and investing knowledge will be more extensive and effective.

Traders’ Secrets will arm you with those skills, so you’ll never have a losing trade again.

Real Return On Investment

Return on Investment or ROI, measures the profitability of an investment, for every amount you put in, what profit can you expect.

Return on investment is a measure practiced to estimate the efficiency of your investment. Also, you can use it to compare the efficiency of different investments. ROI seeks to measure the volume of return on investment in comparison to the costs. So, to calculate ROI, you have to divide the return of your investment by the cost. The result will be displayed in a percentage or a ratio.

How to Calculate Return On Investment

ROI formula is:

ROI = (Current value of investment – the cost of investment)/cost of investment

Compounding interest sounds like alchemy for many new investors, but ROI is true magic. Particularly when your money rises each year.
Let’s say you invest $2,000 at 5% interest. You’ll have $3,500 in interest after 15 years. Your initial capital would be grown by $1,500 of interest. But if you invest at a 5% annual compound interest, you will have about $4,158.

But where is the magic?
The magic comes now. What if you can earn a higher rate of return?

What if you invest at 8% or 10%? This can be really important because it is your money and you would like to watch it grow.

True magic lies in math.

Let’s say you have an investment goal and also, you know how long you want to hold your investment. For example, you would like to sell some of your stocks after 2 years. Assume you invested $2,000 in the stock. And you did that. You sold your stock for, let’s say, $3,000. Great! You made $1,000 in profit. That is 50% of return which is amazing if you want to calculate it quick and dirty, and incorrectly. But, you need to factor in your liabilities and annual inflation rate to calculate the real return on investment. Okay, you have to pay a capital gain taxes, for example, it is $150, so you ended at $2,850 which is still good. Yes, your return will not be 50% it is 42.5% after you pay capital gain taxes. Oh, wait! Where is the inflation? Yes, you have to calculate the inflation over those two years. Let’s say the inflation rate is 2.5%.

$2,850/(1.025×1.025) = $2,713

Your real value return will be 35.65%. It is less than 50% of return what you may be expected but it’s still good.
It was a bit complicated but correct, which is the most important. And it is for two years. Do your own math for longer periods.

Several things you have to keep in mind.

A good return on stocks has to surpass inflation, taxes, and fees. Only in that way, you’ll be able to build your wealth.
Use ROI to compare investments even if they’re not related. It isn’t the same if you are buying blue-chip stock or small-cap. In short, everything is different. But, if you compare only ROI may provide you a clear insight into where you want to direct.

ROI can be used in combination with the rate of return, which takes into account the time frame, which we did. You can use a net present value or NPV, which we did to calculate the real rate of return.
The usual return on investment for the majority of investors is about 2-3%. It isn’t great. But if you keep your money in a bank account you will have a negative return, after you factor and pay all taxes and inflation.

A good return on investment is 10-12% per year

You can beat the market. That is everyone’s goal, right?
But if you expect to earn 15% or 20% – it’s not going to happen. Or it will happen very rare. Don’t believe in false promises, they are counting on your lack of experience. If you build your financial security on bad premises you will end in a risky field. You may lose all your capital. If you have a more conservative approach to investments you will have a less stressful experience. Investing should give you certainty.

Bottom line

ROI is a popular measure due to its simplicity and versatility. Typically, use ROI as a simple measure of your investment’s profitability. Use the ROI on a stock investment. The calculation isn’t difficult. It is easy to understand. If your investment’s ROI is net positive, it is good. Avoid negative ROI, it is a signal of a net loss.

29th October 2019
When to Sell Option Call?

If the trade is going in your favor or for the trade that is going against you – don’t wait until expiration to see what happens. Sell before.

Fresh traders, particularly those with a little amount on the account, like to buy options. But do they understand all the rules? The vast of them somehow skip selling prior to the expiration date. The truth is that the call option could be sold at any time. Call options give you the right to buy some assets, you already know that. To know when to sell the option call, pay attention to several situations.

Let’s say you own calls and you decide to let them expire worthlessly. That’s okay. Your decision. But if you forgot and the stock closes on the expiration date the options will automatically be exercised whenever it is “in-the-money” when the market closes.

And it will be a problem when the next day comes. The next day, the day after the expiration date, the margin call will come. Where is the problem? When you buy an option call, you are buying the right to buy a stock. Did you know that? If you are new in the options trading it is likely you didn’t. And what happens? When margin call comes you have to pay for shares and you’ll be forced to sell your call options. So, it is better for you to sell your options calls before the expiration date.

So, you have to close your trade before the expiration date.

When you opened your position your aim was to make a profit, right? So, don’t wait for options to get too close to the expiration date because they will lose the value. As the expiry date is closer, the value is going down. To make a profit it is better to sell your options and close the trade. Of course, you may take a loss too but if you wait longer and as you are approaching the expiration date, the chances to avoid loss are almost zero.

Avoid margin call

Lett’s say you bought one call option. How to know when to sell option call? Don’t forget that one option controls 100 shares of stock. And let’s say the strike price is $30. If the stock closes at $30,03 your options will be automatically exercised and you’ll be the owner of 100 shares of stock. Further, your broker will send you a margin call if you don’t have a sufficient amount on your account to pay that stock. And what you have to do? You will be forced to sell the stock to close out your trade. More often, you will sell it below the exercise price. But it isn’t necessary to be your case. You can avoid this unpleasant situation. Just close out your open position before the expiration day. Before the market closes, of course.

For a strike price, you can calculate the cost to buy a call option and the cost to use it. You can find plenty of websites with options quotes. All you have to do is to type a stock’s ticker symbol and get a quote. You will see a column with months arranged and with the options expiring that particular month. Remember, you can trade the option until the third Friday of the expiration month.

Calculate options for a strike price

Find your wanted strike price in the “strike” column. Strike prices are ordered from cheaper than the stock price to higher than the stock price. Suppose the stock’s price is $50 and the strike prices ranging from $20 to $70 in a $2 increase. And you want to calculate an option with a $60 strike price. And suppose you want to buy a call option with a $2 “ask” price.

To calculate the whole price to buy one option contract you have to multiply the ask price by 100. In our example, it is $2 x 100 which is $200. No, it doesn’t amount to buying the stock, this amount of money you have to pay for the right to buy the stock.

Let’s go further. The next thing to do is to multiply the strike price by 100. That is an added amount you have to pay to use the option.

$60 x 100 = $6,000

This means you can buy 100 shares of stock for $6,000 before the expiration date.

Use volatility forecast

In general, volatility is extremely important when buying or selling options. Since “returning towards the mean” is especially noticeable on volatility, you can somehow easily forecast the volatility as it goes above a certain point or less than a certain point – it will, most likely, return towards the average volatility.

You can check the VIX to measure market volatility. Learn here how to do it.

Bottom line

Don’t buy call options with the aim to own the stock when the options expire. Your goal has to be to buy a call option and profit when the stock price grows. If call options expire in the money, you will end up paying a bigger amount to buy the stock. Much bigger than what you would have paid if you had bought the stock. If you want to hold the stock, buy it. Don’t play games with options.

And finally, one important note when it comes to questioning when to sell option call.

The European-style options expire on the third Thursday of the month. The American options expire on the third Friday. Don’t forget about this time difference. This could result in huge financial losses for you.

Forecast volatility, that’s a key ingredient in profiting from option trading.

27th October 2019
Is PEG Ratio Really Useful?

The PEG ratio is one of the most popular metrics. It is so easy to calculate it. It never takes more than 10 secs even if you are not good at math.

But, what do you think, is this extremely simple metric, this PEG ratio really useful?

Let’s see. Let’s examine it a bit more on some examples.

First of all, the PEG ratio or the price/earnings to growth ratio is a stock valuation measure. Investors use it to evaluate a company’s performance and investment risk. It is a measure, so it can be calculated.

When the PEG ratio value is 1 we can say there is an excellent bond between the company’s market value and its expected earnings growth. If the PEG ratio is higher than 1, the stock is overvalued. But when the PEG ratio is lower than 1, the stock is undervalued.

The formula for PEG ratio is:

PE Ratio (Price/Earnings) / Expected Growth Rate = PEG Ratio

Assume we are examining two stocks with different characteristics

Stock A company:

price – $20/share
earnings – $4/share
expected EPS growth – 5%

Stock B company:

price – $40/share
earnings – $4/share
expected EPS growth = 20%

For stock A company

P/E ratio = $20/$4 = 5
PEG ratio = 5/5 = 1

For stock B company

P/E ratio = $40/$4 = 10
PEG ratio = 10/20 = 0.5

If we study the P/E ratio for valuation plans, we will discover that the stock B company has an advantage because it has a P/E ratio that is 50% less than that stock A company has. But if you find that company A is going to improve its earnings 5 times faster than company B, you may modify your opinion. If you use the price to earnings growth, you will see that the stock A company trades at a lower PEG ratio than stock B company. So, what can we conclude? Company A stock may give a better value.

But is that really true?

Well, there are some weaknesses connected to the PEG ratio. Earnings growth is not an isolated thing in the market minds. To get a whole picture of the stock value you have to take care of many factors such as cash flow, dividends, revenue growth, etc.

Further, when it comes to “growth” in the phrase “price/earnings to growth ratio” you will be faced with one problem when you are trying to value a company. You actually don’t know the rate of earnings growth. In the best case, you can guess or rely on Wall Street analysts. Having thin in mind, your PEG will be as good as your data is.

Well, something is good with the PEG ratio. It is very useful for smaller companies but for large companies (for example Disney or Ford) where the growth isn’t so important to total returns, it can cheat.

So, is the PEG ratio really useful?

You have to keep in mind that it isn’t a mathematical result. The method is as good as its inputs. The future growth rate could be the main problem in this PEG formula. When you or any analyst make forecasts about the future it can be wrong.

To make it clear, it is easy to calculate the PEG ratio for companies with weak growth. But, mature companies with excellent earnings and great dividends, have a slow growth rate. So, such companies will never have a PEG ratio of 1 or less. Right?

It is almost the same for companies with fast growth.

For instance, a company growing in a surplus of 30% per year will be incapable to maintain such a growth rate. Can you see how the PEG ratio is as good as its inputs? A huge amount of failures in the future earnings growth rises from a too optimistic or too pessimistic viewpoint for the company or industry. Getting an exact PEG ratio depends on what factors you use in the calculation. You may find that the PEG ratio is incorrect if you use historical growth rates. This one especially can lead to mistakes when future growth varies from the past.

Bottom line

Traders-Paradise wants to give some spotlight on the pros and cons of using the PEG ratio. As the answer to a question Is PEG ratio really useful, we can say: the PEG ratio is useful but only when you use it to improve a more precise discounted cash flow analysis or relative valuation.

23rd October 2019
How To Know If a Stock is Worth Buying

How to recognize if a stock is worth investing in?
What causes a stock to be good or bad?
What things to consider?

By Guy Avtalyon

How to know if a stock is worth buying? Let’s assume you are new in this field and how you can decide what stock to buy. For some investors, it is a tricky part. To be honest, it is hard for everyone. The risk is involved, the volatility of stock or market, the investment goal. Everything is on the table. But if you follow some rules connected to the estimation you can figure out how to know if the stock is worth buying. Yes, many people will tell you stock investing is like a wheel of fortune. And they are wrong. Investing is like solving the problem. Everyone has its own way, own style, but the goal is the same: solving a problem.

Prudent investors must enter the stock investing as if they have to solve a problem. Step by step.

Buying stock isn’t like buying a new sofa and when you find it isn’t for your room you can take it back. When you buy stocks, you have to be convinced they will hold their value, increase in value, and you will gain profit when you sell or deliver to you notable dividends over time. The main point is to know when a stock is worth buying.

Look at the price

When you have to decide if some stock is worth buying the first thing you will find is its price. You have to figure out how much the ownership of shares in some companies will cost you.

The amount of money you have in your hands will determine how many shares you can buy but the most important is to know historical data about particular stock prices. If you find the stock has steadily increased over time you will know that you can expect a good value in the future.

Pay attention to revenue growth

Share prices will grow if a company is growing. A company is growing when rising its revenue. Increasing revenue will show you if the company is strong. We can say it is a major indicator often called top line. The important part is not looking at revenue isolated. You have to observe all rise and drops in each quarter and year. And here is the tricky part. The positive trendline is good for the stock price but the revenue may be dropping or be flat and it is important to understand why that is.

You should check the company’s current holdings, projections for future operations and stability. If you hear or read some news, no matter if they are local or even rumors that the company is doing bad, it is better to step back. You wouldn’t like to hold stocks with so much stress. Your money is involved and you could lose everything invested. So, check the company’s revenue, it is easy since almost all companies have their official websites where you can find all this info.

But keep one thing in mind. If it is a temporary situation and historical data shows its stock was good in price that can be good for you to buy a stock at a low price and wait for it to rebound over time.

Some stocks may temporarily drop in price and it can be a good deal to buy them now because they have the potential to recover.

What is the company’s earnings per share

This info is important and you can easily count it. Just divide the leftover amount at the end of each quarter by the number of shares the company has sold, and you get the earnings per share. For example, if a company made $100 million in profits in the prior year and has 52 million shares, the earnings per share is $1.92. As an investor, you should pay attention to this since the higher earnings per share (EPS) shows you that the company is in good shape. And the tricky part again arises. Some companies can manipulate with EPS. The process is simple. They do it by buying back their shares. In that way, they are boosting EPS but not increasing profits.

Use the technical and fundamental analysis to know if a stock is worth buying

You will have some idea about stock’s quality if you check the prices over the past 200 days, for example. And you will see the trends. Trends are repeating.

Analysts think that by observing the movement over a determined period, you can define the baseline, the point where the stock should recover. Here the advice, don’t buy the stock at its highs, wait to come close to the baseline or to hit it. Some may ask how is good stock if hits the baseline. Well, when the stock hits the peak it is expensive, the price is increased, and the stock has no more space to run so the only possible scenario is to go down. If you buy a stock at its peak you will lose your money. So, it isn’t a good time to buy a stock.

Also, perform fundamental analysis. That will show the current and projected financial aspect. Use that info to discover now’s value. Use the company’s statement and balance sheet to determine the business strength. It isn’t a 100% indicator, but it is enough good sign of what you can expect from the company in the foreseeable future.

How to know if a stock is worth buying

One thing is sure and you must have that in mind when you are trying to know if a stock is worth buying.

A company can’t manage every single thing that might affect the business. The general economy can influence the health of a company and its stock play. For example, consumer prices, the changes to interest rates can affect how a company is doing. That is not in connection with its own business. But, the stable economy produces companies’ wealth and share increases come with that. And opposite, share prices can stumble during times of economic uncertainty.

You will find many analysts that issue reports and tips about individual stocks. These tips appear with “buy” or “sell” ratings. But analysts often disagree, so it isn’t recommended to depend on one report. Always compare several to know if a stock is worth buying.

22nd October 2019
How to profit from The Stock Market Plunging?

By Guy Avtalyon

The stock market is plunging but will it crash or not is still unknown. It isn’t easy to predict the stock market crash because it occurs suddenly. The point is to be prepared for such a scenario and here are several ways on how to do so.

I don’t want to frighten you, but we have to talk about the stock market plunging.

The volatility of the markets is back again. Actually, the market is plunging. That is the data from the first six days in October. The S&P 500 has dropped a total of 83 points. Now it is almost 115 points lower than in September. Having this in mind, the trade war and the inverted yield curve, also, let us know how not to speak about a recession.

The stock market is plunging

These gaps are standard. For the last 70 years, there were 37 corrections in the S&P 500. If our counting is good that is almost every second year. And mentioned drops were about 10%. Now, we have 5% and such were more common in history.

This is the price we have to pay for long-term wealth making. So, you must understand that long-term investors have an advantage against the short-term since they would infrequently experience continuing damage from stock market corrections. Time and patience, wait for a bull market rally. It will nullify the correction in the stock market. Anyway, the point of long-term investing is to buy and hold. Hold on to your stocks, that is the key to winning in the long run.

I warned you how difficult this year can be. But when investors’ fears overwhelm the market and the stock market is plunging, there is still something you can do.

Is a safe-haven stock right move?

Yes, you can thrive during the stock market correction if you buy safe-haven stocks. For example, buy gold. The gold is a store of value, so it is a safe-haven asset.

The truth is that you will not gain a lot of profit by holding gold for a long time. It is a physical commodity, there is no dividends. So think about buying a stake of shares in some companies that produce the jewelry or anything of gold instead. Also, a good choice is to buy shares of mining. This is also a suitable alternative when the stock market is plunging and getting lower.

Stocks with low volatility

Companies that provide constant profits, pay a dividend, and have low volatility can be very beneficial when the course in the market turns. Some of them will give you yield much bigger than the yield of a 10-year Treasury bond, for example. Find some company with the old fashioned model of business. Yes, it can be boring but in the long run, it is excellent. The point is to survive the market plunging.

Basic goods and utilities as a safe investment

Buying stocks of some companies that produce cleanser or hygiene is an excellent choice. People will always need to be clean and they will buy these products no matter how deep the crisis is. Also, stocks of energy companies. They are not low-cost but they are eternal. Even more, these defensive basic-need stock can grow in a volatile market.

What to do when the stock market is plunging?

Many things in the markets depend on risk tolerance. Your investment portfolio is based on risk tolerance. The main problem with the stock market plunging and when it crashes is that they are coming suddenly, no one can be sure that the crash will come and when, or the market will recover. Market crashes happen quickly, there is no warning. The problem with investors’ risk tolerance is that is very hard to adjust it depending on circumstances, especially during the bear market. You’ll be emotional, panicked, you will be encompassed by fears. To avoid all of these, take care of your portfolio structure. You should hold liquid assets, such as cash, bonds. When the market crash occurs you need a through-out scenario to avoid losses. Liquide commodities will provide you that.

Being an investor means you have to put your feelings away. You have to make your decisions separate from them.
Investing is magnificent. But life is also.

During the bear markets, even trivial corrections can be remarkably dangerous. But at the same time, bear markets will offer you great moments. The point is to know what you want and where are looking for. But Warren Buffett thinks about bear markets as buying opportunities. The trick is that in such market periods the stock prices of large companies are going down. When that moment occurs watch in your favorite stocks. The time will do the rest. You should buy it when others are selling.

15th October 2019
Getting Started Investing is the Hardest Part

Getting started investing can be very easy and smooth since you need a little money to start. Investing is better than savings accounts because it can shorten the period of earning.

By Gorica Gligorijevic

Getting started investing isn’t a big deal, it shouldn’t fright you. Honestly, it’s so easy.

You know what, when I was just a little girl (my grandma used to sing this) my parents gave a lot of effort to teach me how to save money. Grandparents would like to give me money for some holidays with advice to keep it for rainy days. I had my savings account. From time to time, they would put some money there but most of the time they insisted I have to put. And I did it. Not frequently, I have to admit, but still. With time that habit got strong roots. Every month I’d put 10% of my earnings on my savings account. I am still doing the same. That first savings account is my 10%-account.

No matter how big or small portion is. 10% would every time end there.

I can only speak from personal experience but I am sure that other people could easily find themselves in the same situation.

I am not going to give you advice because I know that is almost impossible to put anything on your savings when you are living paycheck to paycheck. Yes, the amount of money that the majority have available to spend every month is insufficient to put something aside. Despite the old saying about money: If you save me today, I’ll save you tomorrow.

But we all know how important is to have something aside. And it is possible. Let me show you how.

How getting started investing

Okay, do you know the rule “pay yourself first”? Yes, starting this is hard. But do you understand the meaning of this rule? Of course, you do but why not tell it again. This means you have to put on your savings every month some amount of money. It doesn’t matter how much it is. A few dollars, or other currency you have. Just when you get your salary, put aside several coins. Every month. And you will see, that amount will grow with time. Try this. I am not going to tell you how should you spend this money. You may have enough for exotic travel, or to buy a car, or after some time you may have enough for house buying deposit. Just start.

No, I will never tell you to live below your means.

Sacrificing isn’t a good way to save anything except life. If you try this method, living below your means, you will be unhappy and you will always have the feeling that something was taken from you. It can be a trigger for something more serious. But, anyway, try not to purchase the famous brands, too expensive things. Do it occasionally if it makes you happy. But don’t let it be your goal. Life is a lot more than brands.

Create a budget

What you can do is to make a budget frame. It is a smart idea to write down the amount of money you have every month. You can do that in some excel spreadsheet, or just in some memo. Also, there is a lot of money management apps you can use. OK, that’s the first step. The next is to subtract all the costs you have, for example, taxes, debts, loans if you have (don’t worry, we all have), etc. What you have in your hands after these deductions is your net income. This is the amount you have to use as a base for creating your budget. So, track your spending to be able to make some adjustments if it is necessary and possible, of course. You should review your budget from time to time to be sure you are on a good track.

Getting started investing

Do you know that your money can work for you? Yes. Let’s assume that after one year of saving you have enough for exotic travel. Why do you need to make it right now? Go somewhere else and save e.g. $1.000 on your trip. That amount is more than enough for getting started off investing. You can do that with less money, here you will find how. You can choose to invest in some mutual funds (it is probably the best for starting), or stocks, or real estate. By investing you will generate a greater return than your money sleeping in your savings account. If you invest in something you will let your money work for you. The whole process may be done with your banker’s help. Your bank has financial advisors, investment advisors, they will tell you where to invest. Or you can engage some brokers.

What are the advantages of investing

One of the main advantages of investment is that you can have your money work for you to earn more. Let’s say this way. You don’t need to work more to earn more. Your investment will that for you. Investing could bring you a higher living standard, for example.

Further, you can apply investment plans for saving and growing money. The best part of investing is that you can be a long-term investor and money earned from investments can be spent to cover future expenses, for example, for your retirement, or buying a house, new car, your children’s higher education costs, or just you want to have more.

It is important for you to understand that investing isn’t gambling.

You can make a profit on investment due to research and careful choice of a suitable investment vehicle. It isn’t betting. The truth is that you can make losses in the market. That’s the reason to make less risky investments. Never mind if they have lower returns. Stay on them until you find yourselves capable to play riskier. That time may never come. You can stay in safe investments for your whole life. It is OK.

In that way, you will protect your property in the long run.

So, you can see that getting started investing isn’t always the hardest part. It can be very easy and smooth. You just need a little money to start. At least if you have some targeted amount you have to save in some period, investing will short that period. You’ll be able to gain it sooner. Sounds good, don’t you think?

10th October 2019
Bull Market – What Everyone Should Know?

A stock bull market means that investment’s price rises over a long period. Investors’ faith in stock prices lead the prices themselves in a self-fulfilling prediction. A bull market means profits for investors who own stocks.

What exactly is a bull market? If you are like me several years ago, you are confused with all these terms, conditions, maths, evaluations, or estimations of the stock market.

May I be honest with you?

The truth is that I know nothing about the stock market when I entered. I was foolish, I know. But my desire to earn, to be investor was something I never have had before. It was like this…

A personal story

A friend of mine had a grandfather. Extremely interesting figure. He came from Italy to the US as a kid. OMG, he was just 12 when he bought a ticket and came with nothing except dreams about fortune. To shorten this story, after several years of struggling he made his first success. He became a clerk in the office of some broker. Step by step, that wonderful man became very rich. People, listen. Very rich!

I wanted the same. ASAP! I asked him for the recipe. Oh, how I would like I never did such a thing! The first lesson was: You know nothing, have to learn a lot. C’mon, man! Give me something else to start. I thought I know everything. I have just finished university. With a diploma in the hands, I thought I know everything possible about anything. Of course, I was wrong.

That blessed man told me I had to learn. How to, where to go? I spoke with some friends. No help. So, I decided to start. I found a broker, put some money (not a lot) on my trading account, and started to find a stock. That was a nightmare! My first trade was totally a disaster! I placed another trade. The result was the same. In two trades I lost everything.

Ok, at least I tried. Then I went back to my friend’s grandfather and asked him to teach me.

“You get your first lesson, my son.”

OK, I understand. I have to go for basic. And I started to learn. You must learn to have a chance to earn.

The bull market was the point where I started. I can’t explain why, but I felt I needed to know what it is.

The term “bull market” indicates a stock market is rising. Of course, every single investor supposes the market to rise. Better say, has a hope it will rise. But having only hope means to stand in the mud. You can slide in a moment and fall. Having my previous experience in the mind, I needed more facts.

Nice from this zoological term

So, I learned that the bull market occurs when the prices rise for 20% or more.

Further, I learned that a bull market systematically produces higher highs and higher lows. A stock bull market happens in a strong economy. Nice again, thanks bulls. But what can drive a stock bull market, that I wanted to know?

And I found (with a little help from my friend) that great revenue, profit, and P/E ratio are the most important.

The revenue should be in line with the economy, meaning revenue should grow by the speed of economic growth. Here is some interesting part. As consumers spend more on goods and services rise the economy will rise. Super!

And I came to the companies profit.

The revenue must generate profit.

But some knowledge defeated me. I thought that great profit is a wonderful thing and it is good when the company can generate more profit from the same revenue money. But it is not so simple.

And the P/E ratio! The stock price is just the amount of money it will cost to buy a share of a company. But stock prices can vary. If the demand for the stock rise, its price will rise too. The P/E ratio estimates the relationship between a stock price and its earnings per share.

I was confused just as you are now, I believe.

In a bull market

In a bull market, you’ll notice powerful demand and limited supply for securities. This means that more investors want to buy securities and less want to sell. What will happen? The stock price will rise, right. Let’s go further! Let’s observe investors’ psychology.

In the stock bull market condition, investors have the hope of earning a profit. They are positive and optimistic. Oh, how I wanted to have that experience. Instead, I was scared to death. I needed more knowledge to sure what I am doing. My first trade was so stressful and, by the way, I wanted to show my older friend that I can learn.

In the periods of the bull market, people have more money.

And they are spending. In turn, it stimulates the economy to grow. My old friend told me something important and let me share that with you.

When it is the bull market, you should buy stocks in the early stage, while they are not too expensive. As the price goes up, just wait for its peaks and sell your stocks. And don’t worry if there are some losses in price. It is temporary. Just invest in more stocks with a higher chance of getting a bigger return.
I am grateful to him for this lesson. But there was one piece of advice that sounded the most important to me: “Play the market like toreador plays his wonderful performance in the arena. Peaceful, with confidence, elegant. Tickling the bull. You have to know where the limits are, don’t get surprised.”

I’ll not. Thank you, my dear mentor.

9th October 2019
How to Defeat the Bear Market?

If you want to know how to defeat the bear market read this post to the end.

By Guy Avtalyon

Who wants to know how to defeat the bear market? Are you scared about the bear market? Yes, you should be scared. A bear market is one of the cruelest events that can happen to investors.
Let’s make clear what the bear market is. A bear market is when the price of stocks falls at least 20% or more from its 52-week high.
It is essential to understand the order of stock market returns, actually the range of return. Investors who do not understand the order may experience lingering effects that will reduce their profits for a lot.

Where the bear market may occur?

In short everywhere. Stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, oil. Literally everywhere where the trade occurs. Of course, when the prices of computers drop we can’t speak about the bear market. We will rather speak about deflation in such a case.

The bear market is brutal and dangerous. It can blot out everything you made in the bull market. The main goal for every investor during the bear market is to keep as much as it is possible the earning and investment.

I hope you know how to survive a bear attack. Do you really know? Did anyone tell this before to you? Well, the best way to survive a bear attack is to pretend you are dead. Just lay down, don’t breathe, don’t move, keep your eyes open to know what is the next bear’s move, but don’t move them. Clear?

Do it all but without panic.

The same comes when the stock market is down during the bear period. Stay calm and don’t panic.

How not to panic when the stock prices are going down?

Just keep in mind that it is the period. Yes, it is a period when the prices are dropping. A slump in investor confidence will indicate the attack of a bear market. You will see them running away as if chased by a pride of hungry lions. They are selling stocks with the speed of light. Oh, how wrong they are! Where they are going when the bear market is full of investing opportunities.

People, there is no need to get panicked.

That’s the natural condition of the market. To paraphrase a famous investor Peter Lynch, if you don’t understand that recessions can occur or the stock market may drop, you are not ready to enter the market, or at least, you will not do well there.

But we’re all on the same ship. There is no reason to panic. You have to know one thing. The market isn’t the Titanic. It will not crash so easily. This boat will correct itself. It will not happen overnight. So you have to be patient and stay calm. Remember how to survive a bear attack? That is exactly how to defeat the bear market.

During the bear market, most stocks will fall. How to stay in stocks in such circumstances? Just count!

Will it be better to have money in a savings account with a zero interest rate? Nope! Even when the price decline, your stocks will give you a better return.

The secret strategy on how to defeat the bear market is to buy and hold. Investing shouldn’t be the last trump card in your hand. You must have more options in your overall financial situation. You can’t defeat the bunch of enemies with one shot.

Except, of course, if you’re Luke Skywalker on the bombing run against the air vent of the Death Star.

How to defeat the bear market?

Buy now! Notice, be greedy when others are afraid. You should buy the stock when everyone else is selling. Evaluate the companies, their historical data, don’t read the news for a while (trust me, I know how journalists can produce breaking news, and highlight the headlines). Just be calm and let it appear. Let the right decision to come to you. The doors will be opened. Enter! Take your position! Ignore the jerks! Don’t listen to them, find your sweet spot. And don’t panic, again!

In the worst-case scenario, which is the most extreme, you can sell all your stocks and put cash to the bank account (to be honest, I don’t think it is smart, but still) or reinvest the money in more stable assets such as short-term bonds. But you have to know, if you sell all your stocks it is capitulation. It is the official term not my opinion about your investing. But if you do so, how will you come back, how will you rebound? You will be lost out. And it will be very hard for you to enter the stock market again.

The best way is to take a defensive strategy. This means to buy the stocks of big, stable companies. They are strong enough to defend your portfolio from the bear market. Their share prices are less sensitive to a bigger decline. For example, food businesses.

A bear market is a feeling about a particular market mood.

The bear market received its name for the behavior by which bears attack their victims. So, just pretend you are dead when the bear market occurs.

8th October 2019
How to Calculate the Fair Value of Your Stock

Fair value points to the genuine value of a stock or other security that is agreed between the two parties, the seller and the buyer. It can be calculated for the assets that are traded, but not for the products that are being liquidated. It can be a challenge to calculate the fair value if there are no obviously visible market prices. The point of this is to define the price or value that is fair for both sides, the seller will not be on the losing side, and the buyer will end with a satisfying price.

For example, a trader Anna sells its stocks to the trader John at $50 per share. The trader John believes he could sell it at $70 per share once he gets them. So, John buys 1,000 shares at the price Anna is setting. It is a fair value because both sides agreed the price and the trade is beneficial for each of them.

How to calculate fair value?

You can do it with comparable information, for example.

Use respectable financial news and find the last closing price for the stock you want to buy. Say, you want to buy 100 shares of some company and the last closing price of their stocks was $30. The fair value of 100 shares would be 100 x 30 = $3,000.

Also, you can calculate the fair value using the discounted cash flows.

For example, you want to examine investment that offers a range of cash flows. And you can’t find anything comparable. So, how to calculate the fair value of the investment?

Let’s say it is an investment of $10,000 and it generates $2,500 cash flow per year. What you have to do is to write down the cash flows for, let’s say, 5 years.

$10,000

1 – $2,500
2 – $2,500
3 – $2,500
4 – $2,500
5 – $2,500

Assume that the rate of return is 6%, and first calculate the discount factor so that you could calculate the discounted cash flows for each year.

For calculation purposes, the percentages need to be transformed into whole numbers. It is done by adding 100 to the number of percents and then dividing that sum by 100, i.e. (100+6)/100=1.06. Now you can calculate the discount factor for each year by rising to power of that year this number, i.e. to the power of 1 for 1st, to power of 2 for 2nd, and so on.

That should look like this:

1.06^1 = 1.06
1.06^2 = 1.12
1.06^3 = 1.19
1.06^4 = 1.26
1.06^5 = 1.34

The next step is to divide every $2,500 cash flow by the discount factor for each of these five years.

$2,500 / 1,06 = $2,359
$2,500 / 1,12 = $2,232
$2,500 / 1.18 = $2,100
$2,500 / 1.26 = $1,984
$2,500 / 1.34 = $1,866

This produces five discounted cash flows of: $2,359, $2,232, $2,119, $1,984, and $1,866.
Add these five numbers to -10,000. That was the initial investment, do you remember? Let’s see the result. The result is 541. This means that using a 6% rate of interest, the fair value of this particular stocks is $541.

Also, you can calculate the fair value for a stock is by using the P/E (price to earnings) ratio.

The formula to calculate the P/E ratio is

the current stock price per share / current earnings per share

What you have to do is to compare P/E ratios among companies from the same industry. For example, if you want to find the fair value for a utility, you have to compare the P/E ratio to other P/E ratios in that industry.

If the company has a high P/E ratio it usually means the company is overvalued. On the other hand, a low P/E ratio shows the company is undervalued. For example, if you hold a stake of shares in a company with a P/E ratio of 4 and the average P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry is 2, you can be sure that your stock is expensive or, in other words, overvalued.

The next thing to do is to modify the stock price to the average P/E ratio. Let’s say the average P/E ratio is 2, and the P/E ratio on your stock is 4. This means the current price is $8 and earnings per share is $2. We know that by following the P/E ratio formula.

Use the P/E calculation to find what the stock price needs to have a P/E ratio of 2.

The equation is

New P/E ratio x Earnings per share

And the answer is 2 x $2 or $4. The fair value for this stock is $4, not $8.

Bottom line

The puzzle of what security is really worth is one of the basic questions in investing. By calculating fair value, you will find the answer, maybe not exactly but you will be very close to it. Although, fair value calculations are essential to any investor’s stock.

Ways to fair value can classify value investors and growth investors.

The growth investors will estimate earnings that can be unstable. On the other hand, value investors will buy stocks at a discount to their fair value. They will wait for the fair value of their investments to rise. But both kinds of investors have to know that their companies can stumble. Also, the company may get significantly bigger which will cause keeping historical growth rates difficult.

The point is to buy stocks that will rise to meet the fair value of the company.

You might find these interesting too:

>>> The Average Daily Trading Volume How to Calculate

>>> Calculate Portfolio Performance

>>> Short Selling For Profit

>>> Lot size in forex – What is it and How to calculate it?

3rd October 2019
Stock Investing – The Pros and Drawbacks

5 min read

by G. Gligorijevic

Stock investing isn’t just buy and sell stocks. It is the whole philosophy and math. Well, you have to learn more about the logic behind the stock market.

When you want to buy a stock, that means someone else has to sell it. Be aware, that someone has worked on the numbers and concluded that the wise move is to get out of the position right now. Do you know why that one decided like that? How to be sure you are doing a good job if you pick that stock?

Stock picking is a struggle against other investors.

Maybe they know just like you, maybe more, maybe less.

The basic formula is easy: Pay a value that’s smaller than the long-term, per-share price of the underlying business. The philosophy of investing is in understanding how to determine that value.

Maybe you prefer to be a “growth” investor. So, your focus should be on the analysis of a company’s potential for future profits. You should choose the one growing fastest. As a growth investor, you are interested in great earnings. The P/E or price-to-earnings ratio is a popular metric for valuing stocks. Growth investors often are willing to pay P/Es of 20 or more.

Value investors usually buy stocks with lower P/E ratios. This appears more traditionally. But buying cheap has some risks. Very often when some stock is cheap it is a sign that the company has some problems. Is this true? No! Simply NOT! There is no easy way or formula that helps you to pick a fabulous stock to deal with. You have to research and make a decision.

But maybe you should invest in funds than individual stocks.

Stock investing demands time and intense analysis. It also needs notable cash to create a fully diversified portfolio. A choice is a mutual fund. That will spread your bets between hundreds of stocks.

Stock investing is attractive and enjoyable for a lot of people. If you want to enter the market on your own, you can use funds as the essence of your portfolio. Later, just set aside a small account for your selection of the individual stocks.

One of the main benefits of investing in the stock market is the chance to grow your money. Over time, the stock market performs a rise in value. Yes, the prices of individual stocks rise and fall daily. But, investments in solid companies that are able to grow, tend to make profits for investors. Moreover, investing in many different stocks will boost your wealth by leveraging growth in different areas of the economy. It will bring you a profit even if some of your individual stocks lose value.

Stock investing gives a lot of benefits to investors.

Owning stocks means to take advantage of a growing economy.
How does it come?
That is a kind of chain of good fortune. Everything is connected and logical.
Assume you want to buy a stock you’ve been examining for some time. And finally, they announce a surprise bit of good news and the price rallies sharply higher and so you jump in.
Let’s say, you have a sudden profit on your hands but, the stock reverses. It has retracted back to your entry price. Actually, it has gone beyond your entry price and you are a loser! You may think that it’s just market games and “shaking out weak hands”. So, you decided to hold on, knowing that patience is a trading power. Finally, you’re down further than you expected to be in the stock.
If you were ultra convinced of the upside potential, you may see this as an opportunity to buy more shares at a better price. On the other hand, you may panic and sell as you continue to watch the price trend further against you.

What happened?

Experts developed the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” which states that stock prices instantly diminish all news. So, there’s no possible way for a trader to profit from news releases. That experts feel that strongly.

Here is one example.

Maybe two years ago, Samsung announced it is expecting profits to hit record levels in the third quarter. And almost three times as much as the same period the year before.
Following the announcement, their share price dropped.
That might seem counter-intuitive. But there are other factors at play. At the same time as announcing this expected profit win, Samsung’s CEO quit. He told that the company was going through an “unprecedented crisis” and that “a new spirit and young leadership” was needed to respond to the challenges. In this case, the decline in stock price can be understood. You know, if the CEO is worried, perhaps investors should be too.

But sometimes share prices drop on good news and it is really hard to understand why.

Market expectations are always priced into the market price. Say, for example, a company has a forecasted earning per share of $1. They’ve never missed an earnings target. So investors expect the firm will actually earn $1.10 per share. They think it’s currently undervalued. The firm then announces an earnings report of $1.05 per share.

Good news, right? They beat their forecast.

But, crucially, because investors thought the firm should earn more than this $1.05 per share, the stock’s price was bid upwards to a price that reflected earnings expectations. Because the real earnings are less than the current market price, the stock price drops as investors sell off their shares.
This effect can be intensified by investors who completely copy what everyone else is doing. In this case, selling off their shares. Every investor must have the bigger picture. That’s the point.

What you have to do?

If the stock is basically strong, hold the stock despite the stock price going down. It won’t matter much in the long term if the company. Most of the great companies focus on their long-term goals. This means that a few times, they might miss the short-term expectations.
But, short-term interests shouldn’t be ignored completely by the company or investors. Nevertheless, if the company is overall performing good in the long run, then there’s no point of worry. In any business, there will be few difficulties in the short run.
Additionally, do not get connected to short-term expectations. Analysts will keep on making expectations every quarter. It’s their job and this is what they are paid for. If a company keeps on working for the short-term goals, it might never be able to focus on long-term growth.
Overall, if the temporary setbacks are not going to affect the long-term profitability of the company, then ignore the short-term fluctuations and hold your stock.

2nd October 2019