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  • Concentrated Stock Portfolios – Are They Risky?

    Concentrated Stock Portfolios – Are They Risky?

    Concentrated Stock Portfolios - Are They Risky?
    A portfolio of fewer than 10 stocks can be more volatile than a portfolio of 200 stocks and riskier. But it is able to produce greater wealth.

    Concentrated stock portfolios are portfolios that hold a small number of different stocks. The aim is to reach a specific level of diversification. But it is different from diversified portfolios because concentrated stock portfolios can consist of less than 10 stocks. This kind of portfolio can increase the risks but at the same time, it increases potential gains. While we are broadly talking about the importance of portfolio diversification concentrated portfolios actually generate the highest returns. And if you examine the results of both, you’ll see that concentrated portfolios that include only a few stocks are better solutions for creating huge wealth. 

    How is that possible?

    Concentrated portfolios also allow investors to be focused on a small number of investments but high-quality. Many famous and extremely successful investors made fortunes with concentrated stock portfolios. 

    We don’t want to neglect the importance of diversification. It’s the opposite. Diversification is by far the most important lesson that we can learn. Also, the importance of spreading money across different stocks and sectors isn’t doubtful and will significantly reduce risk. But a lot of investors don’t follow that advice and are growing their wealth as a result. Warren Buffett once said “diversification is a protection against ignorance” and what is interesting, data shows that concentrated stock portfolios generate more profits. Simply, they are better performers. 

    Disadvantages of diversification

    Diversification has benefits but you’ll need a balance between risk-controls and returns. This highlights investors that diversify across concentrated stock portfolios rather than diversified. Diversified portfolios have a lot of market risk, anyone can confirm. 

    But, how much is proper?

    All investors are faced with this question and it isn’t a simple one. If you have a concentrated stock portfolio you may experience the stressful event if you don’t understand the company you are investing in completely. However, if you are ready to explore and spend time to get to grasp the companies you want to buy, the concentrated stock portfolio might be a great choice and it can generate high returns.

    But be careful, invest only in the companies that you believe you have an advantage. Concentrated stock portfolios aren’t necessarily risky but only if you are ready to work more. This means you have to be responsible for your investments and never neglect the dangers that may appear. You have to pay a lot of attention and spend time to be able to reduce the risk if you want to build a concentrated stock portfolio.

    Diversified portfolios hold stocks of numerous companies. 

    It is between 40-75 stocks. Concentrated stock portfolios hold less than 25, and it is common to hold less than 10. For example, the structure of such portfolios means that you have 5 to 10 stocks which constitute over 50% of your overall investments. It is important to follow this structure because if you don’t follow these percentages and your portfolio holds under 40%, your portfolio will be diffused.

    Diversification has some advantages. It can reduce the level of portfolio volatility and potential risk. When investments in one sector perform inadequately, other investments will offset losses. But you have to hold assets that are negatively correlated. 

    But diversification can have negative effects on your portfolio. That is a great disadvantage. A diversified portfolio can limit your potential gains and produce average returns. For example, you hold a few winning stocks but beside them, you hold 20 stocks with poor performances and they will reduce your overall gains.

    Also, diversification requires to rebalance your portfolio. If you created a widely diversified portfolio you’ll have a problem monitoring and adjusting your investments. And if you don’t pay sufficient attention the risk may increase.

    The benefits of a concentrated stock portfolios

    Conventional thinking states that diversification reduces the overall risk of investing in stocks. And what is interesting, investors support that approach but, for some reason, avoid concentrated stock portfolios as too risky. It is understandable, but having too much can be bad.

    But not all investors are opponents to concentrated stock portfolios. For example, Warren Buffet who advocates for a concentrated portfolio suggests: ‘‘An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with 20 punches on it. With every investment decision, his card is punched, and he has one fewer available for the rest of his life.’’

    How to build concentrated stock portfolios

    It isn’t as hard as you may think. For example, buy stocks of companies you know well, stay focused on your main investment purpose, invest for long-term to gain the benefit of compounding. And, what is most important, research a lot to find the best stock to invest in.

    When you invest in a limited number of companies you actually have a great opportunity to invest in high-quality companies. There is no need to compromise on quality. What you have to pay attention to? Be informed and buy the stock when it is priced below its worth when the market undervalues it. This gap will provide you significant and profitable upward potential. 

    Legendary John Maynard Keynes suggested investors hold concentrated investment portfolios. In 1938 he wrote:

    1. A careful selection of a few investments (or a few types of investment) having regard to their cheapness in relation to their probable actual and potential intrinsic value over a period of years ahead and in relation to alternative investments at the time;
    2. A steadfast holding of these in fairly large units through thick and thin, perhaps for several years, until either they have fulfilled their promise or it is evident that they were purchased on a mistake;
    3. A balanced investment position, i.e., a variety of risks in spite of individual holdings being large, and if possible, opposed risks.”

    The ideas for concentrated stock portfolios

    Let’s examine two possible portfolios and compare them.

    The first one consists of all stocks in the market. You can hold such a portfolio without a problem if you use mutual funds and index-tracking investment trusts, for example. If we ignore all fees, the return of this portfolio will be an exact match of overall market returns.

    The second is a concentrated stock portfolio with one single stock. Let’s assume that stock is a great player, so its return could beat the market. Of course, if the investor made a bad pick the total loss is guaranteed.

    So where is the point of holding concentrated stock portfolios? 

    If you have a smaller stock portfolio, the possibility to have a higher return than the market average is greater. If you want to hold a smaller portfolio everything depends on your ability to identify all details of some company, you have enough time to find some low-priced stock that can outperform the market greatly. A careful selection of stocks will maximize your long-term returns. 

    But the concentrated portfolio should be balanced 

    Concentrated stock portfolios hold several stocks and as being such, are resistant to the risk of a total loss. Even if the value of a single holding falls to zero. It is possible if every stock from the portfolio performed the same. So, you should hold stocks with incompatible risks or opposed risks. For example, you could reduce the risk if you invest in some hedge funds.

    Bottom line

    No risks, no rewards is the most meaningful sentence in investing.

    When you know all the company’s details, that allows you to decide which investment concept has the highest profit potential. If you want your capital to put to work, your investments should be your top choices. Of course, you have to be selective. No one has hundreds of top choices.

    Try to think of a small portfolio with several stocks like this: a small portfolio can increase risks, but it will also maximize the returns with a few outstanding players. Always keep in mind the investors in Microsoft. Why should any of them want to hold any other stock?

  • Before Taking Out A Loan Ask Questions

    Before Taking Out A Loan Ask Questions

    Before Taking Out A Loan Ask Questions
    Before you begin the whole process of taking out the loan, you have to recognize what kind of loan you need. Personal loans are unsecured and different lenders will offer them under various conditions.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Before even starting to investigate opportunities, you have to know what to ask before taking out a loan. Your account will thank you later. The truth is that almost everyone will find a good reason to take out a loan, but keep in mind, that has to be a GOOD REASON. For example, vacations are a bad idea.

    Suppose you already asked yourself all the important questions and you got the answers on them. Did you? Well, it isn’t quite the truth, right? 

    You’re in need and in a hurry to find a lender is a more realistic situation. Before you start examining what are your opportunities or start investigating online offers, for example, you have two main subjects that you should consider: why do you need a loan and what to ask a lender.

    What to ask yourself before taking out a loan?

    Why do you need a loan? It is a personal question. Will that borrowed money help you achieve your goals? Do you really need it?
    Personal loans are tools that must help you to solve your financial problems but you must have a plan for that. As we said, taking out a loan for vacations is a bad idea, rather open target savings account for that purpose. It will take time until you save enough but paying back loans also require time. 

    But the reasonable decision is to take out a loan to pay out some debt with high interest. How much do you need exactly to borrow is crucial. Online applying for personal loans is very easy, but did you determine the exact amount of cash you need to borrow. If you add up all your debts you’ll find that exact amount. 

    How much can you afford to repay?

    Personal loans will provide you cash for your needs, but it’s important to borrow what you can afford to repay. So, before you apply you have to examine your payment options. Calculate your monthly payment. For example, you know the amount of money you’ll need to borrow. But to calculate your monthly payment you’ll need to know the interest rate and loan length. Loan length is an important question and it is often your decision. You may choose to pay a larger payment per month, so you’ll need a shorter time period to repay your loan as a whole. If you choose a longer repayment timeline, you’ll have to pay smaller amounts every month. 

    Also, the interest rates will affect your repayments. Try to find a lender that offers lower interest rates, that will save you money because if the interest rate is higher, you’ll pay more money for the interest.
    When you are searching for some online lender, always seek the lowest interest rate as possible.

    Before taking out a loan ask what is your credit score 

    Your credit score may decide if you are qualified for a personal loan at all. Also, if you are qualified for getting a personal loan, a good credit score may provide you better terms. With a bad credit score, you’ll haven’t such good terms. Yet, it’s still possible to get a personal loan with a bad credit score

    Some online lenders will give you a chance to see your credit score without paying and without obligation to take out a loan.

    It’s up to you to decide if an unsecured personal loan is suitable for you. Unsecured personal loans have fixed interest rates and fixed payments every month. Payments for other loans may differ from month to month and as the lifetime of your loan is approaching to the end.

    Can you trust the lender?

    When you’re in a real need and you need that money quickly, there is an army of lenders willing to deceive you and put you in a dangerous situation.
    Trustworthy lenders will look at your credit score, credit report, and examine whether you are able to repay the loan based on the ratio of your debt to income. 

    If they can check you, you can check them also before taking out a loan. For the US-based residents, check complaints reported to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Also, you have plenty of websites where you can find other borrowers’ stories. Thanks to the internet everything is much easier. The trickiest part is that you’ll need to give some sensitive personal information if you want to use an online lender. 

    Check them again and again

    So you have to check them and be sure you are dealing with trustworthy lenders because some risks may occur. Fake lenders can be an extremely dangerous choice. They can promise a lot of beneficial things, but after you pay what is needed for approving the loan, you may not get what you wanted and what you paid nor what they promised. Also, if you choose a fake lender, it is possible to pay more interest or more fees. For example, some trustworthy lenders will never ask for advance fees. With legitimate lenders, the only fees you have to pay upfront are, for example, appraisals or credit checks. But you’ll have to do that only if you are taking out large loans.

    To lenders who allow anybody to take a loan, you’ll pay high interest. They will always calculate the risk they have to take or simply, they want to steal your data or money.  

    Also, be very careful, actually, you have to avoid all lenders that offer you to send the amount requested by wire. 

    Why would they want you to send money by wire? You have a credit card or check to do that. If you find such a lender you can be sure it’s a scam.

    Some of these “artists” added some words to their names that may suggest the U.S. government has approved the lender. Also, some will choose the name of some well-known financial institution but will make small, barely visible changes. That is a sign you are dealing with the false lender.

    What to ask a lender before taking out a loan?

    Ask the lender to explain all about different interest rates and to tell you how each of them could influence your financial situation and loan purpose. The other info you should ask your lender is how much you’ll need for down payments. In most cases, it will be 20% but can be changeable from lender to lender and depending on your credit score. For example, some will demand significantly less.

    Also, you would like to know what all the costs are. This means you have to know even before taking out a loan the cost of lender’s fees, recording fees, taxes, etc. 

    You need to know if you can get a loan rate lock. That is important if interest rates are rising. Of course, they are changing on a daily basis but if that change is notable maybe you’ll choose to lock a loan rate, for that the lender will charge you and you’ll need to know how much the fee will be. 

    Also, are there some prepayment penalties? They are not allowed in every state in the US, but it is important to know if your lender can charge you penalties if you pay the loan earlier. 

    Not everyone is an expert in mortgages and mortgage terms. Ask anything you’re not certain about. There is no stupid questions. You have to know all details, ask the lender for each one before taking out a loan.

    What to pay attention to before taking out a loan?

    When you need money, you may not have enough time to think about your financial future. So, you have to be careful and wise. Take care of how and under which conditions you are taking out a loan. Ask as many questions as you can. Demand the answers because they can save you money. Before taking out a loan from a lender, ask yourself what is the real purpose of borrowing and can you keep your debt under control. For that, you’ll need to know all details about the conditions under which you are taking out a loan. 

    Borrow only the amount you really need and you are capable of repaying. Lenders will try to give you the maximum loan but do you need it? Can you afford it? Always think about the future and possible problems that can arise.

  • The Importance Of A Trading Journal

    The Importance Of A Trading Journal

    The Importance Of A Trading Journal
    If you want to become a successful trader you will do what is obvious, you’ll start keeping a trading journal. That will give you a lot of benefits.

    The importance of a trading journal isn’t arguable. A trading journal is helpful for every trader to track trades. Using a trading journal is one of the essential components for trading success. Even the most successful traders understand the importance of a trading journal and use it all the time.

    But still, some traders don’t understand the importance of the trading journal and use it inefficiently. The reason for doing so is quite hard to understand because using a trading journal is a great tool. Without it, you will not be able to execute your trades with higher efficiency. The importance of a trading journal is obvious if you know what kind of important data it can provide you. It could show you the info about what were the market conditions and you went through them, where you were panicked and wrong or had successful trades and under which conditions. Another importance of using a trading journal is that it can give you a clue for your future trading strategy since you have recorded your prior strategies.

    Keeping a trading journal is an exceptional strategy to improve performance and grow confidence in trading. Success in trading doesn’t matter if it is stock, options, forex trading demands a high level of planning and discipline. If you want to be successful in trading, you’ll need to go through a full learning process. And here we come to the importance of a trading journal, one of the best tools that will guide you and help to optimize your trading system and can drive you towards profitable trades.

    What is a trading journal?

    As we said, a trading journal is one of the most powerful tools for trade management. It is the place where you have recorded all your trades and you can always check for better output and for future trades. By using a journal you can track development as a trader but also examine mistakes you made when you enter or exit your trades. Without it, you cannot act. It is your best base for better future executions.

    The importance of a trading journal is that you have all data records ordered by the date with all trades that you ever take. You’ll have all entries, meaning every single trade ever taken. So, you’ll have a prompt overview of all trades you made, every entry and exit prices, the prices’ direction,  the size of all your positions, all trade results. Of course, you can add to your trading journal all data you want and find they can be useful for your trading success.

    Why keep a trading journal?

    The same as it is important to have a trading strategy, one or several of them, risk management, it is also important to keep a trading journal as a part of your trading plan.

    It is important to keep a quantifiable record of your trading performance and learn from past winnings and losers. However, past performance cannot predict future performance, but you can use a journal to learn from your trading history, to recognize the emotional actions, why did you or the price go against your strategy. So, your trading journal should include all your profitable trades, also unprofitable, market records, the reasons behind all your buying or selling the stock, and many other details. 

    At first glance, it looks very complicated and you may think it’s better to give up before even starting, but when you start it and recognize how beneficial it can be to keep a trading journal, you’ll stick with it throughout all your career. 

    What are the benefits?

    Your trading journal is the most important statistic of your trades. It keeps tracking your progress and it is by far the best way to estimate how successful you are. By keeping a trading journal you’ll have valuable feedback on your performances but also, you’ll have the patterns that will provide you important and accurate information about what you did well and what you have to change.

    As we mentioned above, it may seem like a complex work but in essence, a trading journal is a simple diary where you have to write down all your trades, the reasons behind them, and how it ended up. 

    We say the end is very important, we say it deliberately.

    If you plan to become a successful trader, all ends are important and should find their places in your trading journal. Never add only the winning trades or ignore the losing ones. You’ll need a valuable tool that will provide you accurate feedback into your trading method. That’s the main goal of keeping a trading journal.

    What traders do wrongly?

    There are several major mistakes (more about “option trading” mistakes in this article) in keeping a trading journal. Some traders will just add the stocks they trade but forget to write down how the trade ended, did they have the winning or losing trades. That is a common mistake that leads to keeping a journal incorrectly. You have to know whether you executed your trades in profits or losses and you’ll need that information documented later to recognize the patterns.

    Add to your journal what were your reasons before entry, where you placed the stop-loss, where was your target profit. Also, it is important to add how much risk you planned to take and write it down in money. The next step is to follow your own rules, right? That will show how you manage your trades.

    But let us explain why it is so important to add market conditions to your journal. If you don’t, there will be a great possibility to continue trading out the market context. Moreover, you’ll not be able to seek new approaches and ideas of trading. 

    More detailed explanation 

    If you have data about market conditions added to your journal you’ll be able to recognize the markets with a high possibility for more aggressive trades. In case you aren’t that kind of trader, you’ll just stay away because you’ll know when not to be in the market. On the other hand, if you like that kind of trade you’ll be ready to take a risk.

    Additionally, the trading journal will give you a great chance to monitor movements and risks, to recognize the strength and weaknesses in your portfolio. It will give a clear indication which stocks or other assets you trade well and which you don’t manage well. If you ignore this information you’ll not earn the money. It is more likely you’ll have consistent losses. What really you would like in such a case is to get your money back. 

    There is a difference between a bad trade and a bad stock and you have to realize that. Maybe the stock is quite good but you don’t trade it well. 

    The journal will show you which stocks you have to focus on.

    What things to add to your trading journal?

    The following are basics. 

    Add the stock price action before you enter the trade. It can be a one or two hours time frame. That will be the context in which you’ll open the position. Further, include a text note of your starting time to know if you enter the trade too early or too late. Also, why maybe you did miss some signals.

    One thing is also important and it is smart to add it. Add, it can be a kind of reminder, what are the market circumstances that could force you to stay away from trading or you missed the trade. When such a circumstance occurs, write it. Write down that you didn’t trade because of the news, for example.

    Write a note about the trends you saw. If you made a mistake, write it also. Do the same if you miss a trade or how many trades you made, make a note of it. Note how many winning or losing trades you had, calculate expressed in money how much you earned and loss, and write down the net result. But this method may have some disadvantages so it could be better if you, instead of money to use points for the futures, or cents for stocks, as well as pips for forex trades.

    Bottom line

    Keeping a trading journal makes a difference between amateur traders and professionals. Professionals understand the importance of a trading journal. You can count on a lot of benefits when you start keeping your trading journal. First of all, your whole comprehension of trading will be changed and you’ll get a better direction, of course. Moreover, you’ll be able to make progress from the very first day. You will have confidence and trust in your strategy and your skills when your journal backs you up with the statistics that verify that your strategy works.

    These are only a few benefits of a trading journal. If you want to become a successful trader just use this number one tool for professional traders. That will improve your trading.

  • The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing
    Diversification has to be a well thought out step for investors. It can boost growth and lead you to wealth. But if doing improperly, it can cause costly failures.

    Investors infrequently pay attention to the danger of diversification. All taught that the idea of diversification is to reduce the portfolio’s risk. And nothing is wrong with that. Some amount of diversification is important or investors will take too much risk that will never be neutralized for.
    But sometimes too much can be very bad. It is the same with the diversification of the portfolio if it is too diversified. And we will explain to you the danger of diversification. 

    So, in the first place, the danger of diversification may come when the diversification is done improperly but also if the investment portfolio is over-diversified. But let’s go step by step through all examples of the danger of diversification because they can be very costly. They can ruin the whole investment and leave you with your empty hands.

    The danger of diversification in investing

    Portfolio without focus

    No one will tell you that the danger of diversification is the reduced quality of your investments. In investing, one of the very important parts is to have a well-focused portfolio. That provides investors to have the best opportunities. To say this way, publicly listed companies are not all worthy to invest in. Also, what is maybe more important, you can find even fewer companies that are so-called safe investments. In order to have well-diversified portfolios, investors don’t pay enough attention when picking the stocks they could add many of them that don’t give a margin of safety to the portfolio. That will cause a reduction in the quality of investment. That would be the danger of diversification.

    A complicated mixture of assets

    The other danger may appear if investors add too many assets without truly understanding what they have. In other words, their portfolios are too complicated. The point with investing is to have control over your investments and know what they are. If you have too many assets from different classes you would be lost in attempting to follow them and to stay on top of them. 

    Portfolio volatility

    It’s very important to understand that the more stocks you add to your portfolio, it will be more correlated to the market returns. There is some logic behind and you have to understand it because portfolio volatility can lower your portfolio performance. So, it can be too risky. Always keep in mind that the number of investors that ever reach average returns is under the average. The reason is the volatility caused by risk.

    Having an index fund instead of a portfolio

    Instead of buying too many stocks and adding too many assets, it’s better to buy some index funds. If you have too many assets, your portfolio will look like an index fund anyway. So indexing can be the danger of diversification. Indexing is good when the bull market, but if it is bear you could be faced with a lot of problems and danger.

    Indexing, as well as over-diversification, represents the hidden danger of diversification. For example, if your portfolio may not have quality if you hold second-rate investments along with great investments. Sometimes, holding so-called inferior investments is the result of ef emotional buying, so avoid that. Pick stocks after you research them, never based on some emotions.

    What can put us in danger of diversification?

    The largest single danger is a surprise risk. Surprises are often part of our everyday life but when it comes to our investment it is a sign that we as investors are not cautious enough. Investors should be aware of risks and to predict them as much as possible. It is crucial in investing, due to safety, to quickly transfer our assets that show more risks than we expected or we can accept.

    Also, forget you’re able to have an excellent and perfect plan for your future. Very often some unexpected events can arise. For example, this coronavirus pandemic that we have now. These events have a great impact on our investments so if we have over-diversified portfolios how could we manage all the investment? It’s almost impossible.

    The perfect investment plan doesn’t exist. Every single investor made some mistakes. Just listen to what Warren Buffet has to say about his mistakes and wrong decisions. Yes, even him.

    The belief that you are always right isn’t only a stupidity, it is a more dangerous practice. However, it demands to keep on learning in order to modify your behavior. 

    If you never change your behavior you’ll take too many risks and you’ll put yourself in one of the dangerous situations. Moreover, you’ll never grow as an investor and, also, your capital will not grow. Sometimes it is better to give up and admit we are wrong than stay with the wrong plan and make more mistakes. 

    Comfort from following others

    We are all vulnerable and insecure at some level, whether we admit it or not. A great number of people seek help in instant solutions. The easiest way is to follow what other investors do. That’s a kind of psychological effect. If the majority is doing something, how can that be wrong? Remember, only a few investors know how to make money on the stock market. The others, the majority fail. The stats are cruel. 

    The winners represent a small part of all investors. 

    Investing is difficult but it can be very successful and profitable. All you have to do is to guess where the new gain capacity will come from. The tricky part is that you cannot do that without the knowledge and without comprehensive research. The best suggestion is: follow the standards, not the people.

    The fake feeling of security can bring us to the danger of diversification

    The truth is that many apparently diversified portfolios aren’t really diverse. For example, if your portfolio consists of stocks of 5 different companies and 5 different industries it might seem as a well-diversified one. But if all your portfolio consists of 100% stock in one market index and they are all based in the same country and have exposure to the same currency, you have a very dangerous diversification. In other words, your investment is at great risk. 

    You might think you made a great choice, but in reality, you are at risk to lose everything if some unfortunate event hit that country or currency.

    Bottom line

    Proper diversification is a matter of great importance. Smart investors allocate their money based on their own valuations, never on some prophecy or doubted predictions. Avoid over-diversification if you are invested in ETFs or mutual funds since it is a common mistake. When picking the stocks, seek the highest quality companies, to direct the chances of success in your favor.

    The bright side of portfolio management is that you can avoid the danger of diversification if you manage your portfolio on your own. Diversification is an extremely crucial concept in portfolio management, but it has to be done properly. When building your portfolio keep in mind the danger of diversification in investing. That will help you to reach optimal diversification.

  • Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use

    Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use

    Value Investing Tools That Every Investor Must Use
    “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” – Benjamin Graham

    To find accurate value investing tools you’ll need time, a lot of it to do your homework. Finding the right tools requires a lot of research. It is the same as finding a good value stock to invest in. It can be so complicated that many investors are scared of all that job. 

    But if you don’t like to do your own research, here are some tricks to help you. 

    By having the value investing tools to value a company and evaluate its prospects, you can eliminate unsuitable stocks. Also, you can do it more quickly and focus on the best picks. One of the most accurate among value investing tools is the P/E ratio. 

    P/E ratios as value investing tools 

    The price-earnings ratio or P/E ratio is classified as a primary tool to identify undervalued or cheap stock. It is a simple metric that is easy to calculate. All you have to do is to divide a stock’s price per share by its earnings per share. Earnings per share is shortly expressed as EPS. Value investors always have the P/E ratio in their value investing tools boxes and seek a low P/E ratio. A lower ratio means that they will pay less per each dollar of the company’s current earnings.

    But this metric has some downsides. Of course, it is still a good start but if you rely on this one measure solely it is more likely your strategy will not be accurate and successful. 

    Investors are frequently attracted by low P/E ratio stocks. The problem is that they can be inaccurate and inflated numbers. Sometimes, companies report incorrectly high earnings sums or some forecasts show much higher earnings, so the low P/E ratio can be false. Everything becomes more clear after real earnings reports and the P/E ratio goes up and investors’ research result is false too.

    So, if you use the P/E ratio alone you’ll end up trapped with the wrong decision.

    Use PEG ratios as value investing tools

    If the P/E ratio is flawed, what should you do to find true value stocks? Which one of the value investing tools you have to use? PEG ratio will help you to recognize if a company with earnings growth is trading below its intrinsic value. The price-to-earnings ratio or PEG ratio can help you to avoid some traps while searching for value stocks. To calculate the PEG ratio use this formula:

    PEG Ratio = Price To Earnings Ratio / Earnings Growth Rate

    If the PEG ratio is less than 1 it is supposed to be a sign of an undervalued stock and it is possible to buy such stock at discount. So, the PEG ratio of 1 means the company is correctly valued. Contrary, if the PEG ratio is above 1 it may indicate that a stock is too expensive. But the PEG ratio shouldn’t be used as an individual metric. The valuation puzzle requires using other value investing tools to have a comprehensive picture of the stock’s value. 

    For many investors, the PEG ratio is a favorite among value investing tools due to its ability to show the stock that is at discount. However, as with all of the value investing tools the PEG ratio is useful to recognize the stock that could deserve a closer look. You’ll need more research and tools to reveal the possibility that the stock is cheap for a reason, in which case it isn’t the right choice. Simply, you wouldn’t want such stock in your investment portfolios.

    But keep in mind, for example, various industries will have different PEG ratios. So be careful when judging the company’s value.

    The company’s cash flow

    The company is worth only the amount of the future cash flows it can make from its operations. Keep this in mind. The value investors will always check the company’s cash flow before starting to invest. 

    As we noticed above, the P/E ratio is by no means a complete measure. The company’s net income is only an accounting entry and it is often influenced by numerous non-cash costs, for example, by depreciation. Also, companies use tricks to misrepresent their earnings. As a difference, cash flows measure the real money that the companies paid out or acquired over a given period. 

    Cash flows exclude the influence of non-cash accounting charges. They don’t include depreciation or amortization. So they are more objective value investing tools because they only admit the real cash that flows into or out of a company. Cash flows are a clear picture of the company’s real profitability. However, we have to repeat, it makes no sense to estimate cash flows as the only tool you use when seeking the value investment. 

    Enterprise value

    It is important to compare operating cash flow to the company’s Enterprise Value if you want a clearer picture of the amount of cash the business is generating related to its total value.

    To explain the enterprise value. 

    It is as a number that in theory outlines the full cost of a company if someone buys 100% of it. If the company is publicly-traded, this means buying up every single of the company’s shares.

    To calculate it you have to sum up the company’s market capitalization, add debt, preferred stock together, and subtract out the company’s cash balance. The result will show how much money an investor or group of them would need to buy the whole company. So, it is an outstanding picture of the total value of the company.
    When you divide a company’s operating cash flow by its enterprise value, you can easily calculate the company’s operating cash flow yield. 

    These measures are also the value investing tools. Especially cash flow yield because it presents the amount of cash that the company generates per year in comparison to the total value investors invested in the company.

    Return-on-Equity – ROE is excellent for value investing tool

    ROE is another excellent tool that can help you to find value stocks.  

    It is a profitability ratio and measures the ability of a company to generate profits from its shareholders’ investments. To put it simpler, the ROE shows how much profit generates each dollar of stockholders’ investment generates.
    The ROE of 1 indicates that every dollar of stockholders’ investments generates 1 dollar of net income. This measure shows how efficiently a company uses investors’ equity to generate net income.

    ROE is also an indicator of how efficient management is.

    The formula is 

    ROE = Net Income / Shareholders’ equity

    This measure is broadly used, and it is easy to find the ROE lists for publicly traded companies on almost all financial websites. When investors look for value investment opportunities, they are looking to find a stable or growing ROE of the company. 

    However, there are some cautions. For example, some companies can produce enormous ROE in one year, but the next one or more years later resulted in reduced profitability.

    Also, the tricky part is the relationship between ROE and debt. For example, if the company is taking higher debt loads it is possible to use debt capital instead of equity capital. Such a company will have a higher ROE. These companies with exponential and fast growth can be favorable, but also, can ruin shareholder value. Investors prefer ROE at around the average of the S&P 500. 

    Bottom line

    Sadly, there’s no fixed method that will provide investors a distinct way to reveal the best value stock for investing. Investors have to take into consideration the company’s sector and industry, also, if the company has an advantage over its peers. Look for the companies that are able to become brands, or have some unique product, the new technology, in other words, with a sustainable competitive advantage. 

    Remember, some companies operate in a cyclical market. For example, automakers. Such companies will have great growth and huge returns in periods of the rising economy but they will fail if the economy is in a slowdown. So think about the company’s profitability under all conditions. 

    These value investing tools will help you to uncover plenty of potential picks and to find a good stock to invest with trust.

  • Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation

    Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation

    Negative Numbers In Asset Allocation
    Asset allocation is one of the most efficient investment strategies. The percentage allocation shows the level of risk and the expected return. What if the numbers are negative?

    By Guy Avtalyon

    If you wonder how it is possible to have negative numbers in asset allocation we will say the shorting on the asset may cause that.
    For example, you have a long-short strategy with two classes only: equity long, and equity short. You can be sure that an equity short class will have negative numbers in asset allocation because all short investments are allocated under this class.

    Asset allocation is important because it is an individual investment strategy. The numbers of stocks, bonds, commodities, cash show the level of risk and hence, how big returns an investor expects.
    Investors use asset allocations in their factsheets that have to precisely represent their investment strategy. The asset allocation sums up to 100%,  which means that the invested volume and cash all together build total net assets.

    But if you build a portfolio that makes weightings of asset classes, you’ll have the negative numbers in your asset allocation. A good example comes from futures contracts, they can make your cash weighting appear negative.

    This is connected to the leverage of the futures and the difference between the exposure and the actual book value of futures contracts. You know the future contracts are derivatives, right? Never mind. Let’s explain it in short.

    The influence of derivatives on negative numbers in asset allocation

    Derivatives receive their value from the performance of underlying assets. The issuer can modify practically arbitrarily the exposure of derivatives to the price changes of the underlying assets. The changes in the market value of the underlying asset can be strong or weak. That is the so-called leverage effect. But, also it can be inverse. The point is that some small changes in the market value of the underlying assets may cause a really huge change in the value of derivatives.

    Maybe the most popular derivatives are futures. Futures are contracts specified for the buying or sale of a financial instrument at a pre-arranged price in the future. 

    For the buyer of a futures contract we say to go long, hence the seller goes short. Futures are traded on exchanges. The counterparty risk is close to zero. To guarantee that traders of a futures contract can cover possible losses at any time, they have to deposit an amount of the overall exposure of that futures contract. That is a margin account. 

    What happens if the futures’ price goes against the trader?

    In such a case, the trader has to cover the losses on the margin account which is known as a margin call. But if the price goes in a trader’s direction, the trader will withdraw the profit from a margin account.

    Therefore, the trader only places a part of the overall futures contract exposure in cash on the table. So, there is leverage. For example, let’s imagine a trader enters a contract with exposure in the underlying of $100.000. The requested margin for that trade, meaning the booking value of such a futures contract is $20.000. A 1% rise in the underlying asset or +$1.000,  will result in a 5% rise in the booking value of the futures contract. So, the leverage in our example is 5.

    Let’s take a look at a portfolio example

    Let’s assume you have a portfolio of $500,000 net assets. The total volume is in cash, so the portfolio allocation is 100% cash. Now let’s enter into 10 of the futures contracts we mentioned prior, for example. The portfolio will consist now of $300.000 in cash and $200.000 invested in the futures contract. Expressed in percentages it will be 60% cash and 40% futures.

    Is this an accurate picture? If we examine the booking value, this allocation is perfectly mathematically accurate. But should we base the allocation on the booking value solely? Of course not, because it is useless.

    As the $200.000 booking value describes an exposure in the underlying of one million dollars, the allocation should display 60% cash and 200% underlying. This would show the real risk and anticipated potential return of this portfolio. But it is 260% in total?

    How the negative numbers in asset allocation occur

    We have only one test left now to understand negative numbers in asset allocation. 

    It is expected the sum of all allocation positions in the calculation that use the booking value equals 100%. But if we use the interpretable exposure it doesn’t. It is a lot above 100%, actually, it is 260%! How to solve this issue that puts investors in a difficult situation? Speaking from the financial point of view, this increased exposure is based on the leverage. If you want the same exposure in the underlying assets, you will need cash. But if you don’t want to use the remaining cash,  you have to lend the amount you need to invest in underlying assets. 

    This means you have to balance the leverage by an additional position. That is known as – synthetic cash.

    In our example, this will appear as an allocation of 60% cash, 200% underlying assets, and -160% in synthetic cash. But as managers of our portfolios, we like clear stats, so we can express our allocation as follows: underlying assets 200%,  – 100% cash (synthetic cash included).

    And can you see how the negative numbers in asset allocation arise? All without shorting.

    Negative returns as negative numbers

    Negative returns are valuable in risk estimation. Investors have negative returns when the percentage of periodical return is below zero. To calculate this you have to divide the number of negative returns by the number of all returns over a given period. In this way, you can see the negative returns frequencies. 

    For example, (note the numbers are for the purpose of this example only, they are not accurate) the negative return frequencies for 6-month returns from March 1960 to December 2001 were 2% for Treasury bills, 26% for long bonds,  and 24% for the S&P 500 Index.

    The high negative return frequency for long bonds implies that bonds in the long periods present lower volatility than stocks. And this is very important info when it comes to the risk estimation.

    The investors who recognize risk from the aspect of volatility, it might seem reasonable to believe that long bonds would have several more difficult years than stocks during a 41-year period. But this is a misconception. 

    But recent data show investment returns might not be normally distributed. The normal distribution can minimize the influence of market shocks, for example, market corrections. Also, it doesn’t take into account the changes in returns within and between separate asset classes.

    Do negative numbers in asset allocation have any positive aspects?

    There is some positive aspect of negative numbers also. 

    We know it isn’t easy to stick with your long-term strategy when the markets fall sharply. But you can lose the bigger picture when such dramatic times come. Just think about the future, the time when you really will need that money. The majority of portfolios have between 10 and 30 years time horizon. Stay focused on how many shares you have, don’t think what they are worth now.

    Continue with regular investing, buy shares at lower prices, just keep investing even the share prices are dropping. Keep in mind that the markets are cyclical. So, what is bad today easily may become fantastic tomorrow. Markets are moving up and down, the negative numbers in asset allocation can turn into positive. Who can predict the time and how sharp the market can drop. The only thing is sure, the down markets always recover ultimately.

  • Disruptive Technology – Keep an Eye On

    Disruptive Technology – Keep an Eye On

    5 Disruptive Technologies Investors Should Keep an Eye On
    Image source: Pexels

    by Micky Oliver

    Every investor, whether a newbie or a veteran, wants good returns on their investment. But in investing, there are no guarantees to reaping high profits. As mentioned in a previous Traders Paradise post, investors should learn how to temper expectations to prevent disappointment. However, if you want to increase your chances of long-term returns, you ought to consider disruptive technology—innovations that alter the way that consumers, industries, or businesses operate.

    Investing in disruptive technology is something that investors have always done, and often with great success. One prominent example is Masayoshi Son’s investment in industry trailblazers like Uber, Slack, and WeWork. Through his Japanese conglomerate Softbank, he was able to take early bets on these companies, and now the way we work, travel, and life has changed for the better.

    Success stories like this have urged investors to keep an eye out on technologies that could potentially revolutionize industries. If you, too, want to place your bets, here are five disruptive technologies that may be worth investing in:

    Advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and analytics

    AI has already been adopted by many industries, but it appears that its full potential hasn’t been realized. While we already reap its benefits every day with our continued use of things like ridesharing apps, voice assistants, and mobile check deposits, there is a whole crop of emerging uses of AI. This includes adaptive machine learning, edge analytics, transfer learning, generative adversarial networks, and more, as mentioned in the Tech Republic. And as technology continues to evolve, there will be more opportunities for investment.

    Blockchain

    It may seem like blockchain technology has lost its novelty since having gone mainstream, but tech writer James Gonzales explains that it’s seeing lots of use outside of the finance industry, with new applications in the legal sector ranging from the creation of smart contracts to corporate filings and notarizations. While these use cases are still primarily theoretical, they could potentially have a transformative impact, making them worth investing in.

    Space exploration as a disruptive technology

    Renowned entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, and Paul Allen have long been at the forefront of investing in space exploration technology. Business journalist Derin Cag highlighted that there is already quite a bit of progress in this domain, most notably the NASA-spearheaded space colonization projects, including the National Space Society, and International Space Development Conference. Given the prediction that the human population could exceed one trillion people in the 22nd century, it may be a good time to explore investment opportunities in space colonization as it’s likely that disruptive macro technologies will get invested as a result.

    Green IT

    Green technologies are nothing new, but as Tech World noted, renewed discussions about climate change propelled its resurgence. New advancements in green IT include renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, and environmentally-friendly services, all of which allow companies to increase resource productivity and efficiency, cut on costs, as well as decrease their environmental impact. In an effort to cut their emissions and go carbon neutral, organizations continue to invest in environmental technology, which led to an all-time high of $393.8 billion in transactions. As Greenpeace head of IT Andrew Hatton noted, going green is not only the ethical thing to do, but it also makes the most financial sense.

    High-speed travel as a disruptive technology

    Another disruptive technology impact, that is predicted to have a second coming, is high-speed travel, which reemerged thanks in part to Elon Musk’s Hyperloop project. In 2003, when the Concorde went out of commission, the high-speed travel industry took a massive downturn. But its demise was expected due to its exorbitant costs and defiance to noise regulations. With Hyperloop, a sealed tube with reduced air resistance through which a pod, or in this case, a train, would move at impressive speeds, people can travel from London to Scotland in just 45 minutes. It managed to secure $80 million in funding, and we can soon enjoy a mode of travel that solves many complex long-distance issues. Supersonic flights, aircraft that can travel faster than the speed of sound, may soon follow. 

    Investing in disruptive technology can be intimidating due to the sheer complexity of the underlying products, but if you manage to hit the jackpot, the rewards are astounding.

     

     

  • Personal Online Loans – Everything You Need To Know

    Personal Online Loans – Everything You Need To Know

    Personal Online Loans - Everything You Need To Know
    The lending process is much faster if you are taking out a personal loan online. The whole process can be made from your home. Very often, you’ll get the funds deposited into your account within one or two days.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Personal online loans can be easy to apply for. Online lenders usually offer low-interest rates, so it is important to note when you have to decide should you do or not that. The other benefit of personal online loans is that it is so easy to compare different offers from different lenders. Easy and quick. Besides specialized online lenders, many others are allowing you to apply for a personal online loan. Sometimes, you may get a loan under better conditions using their services.

    A personal loan from some online lender can bring money into your account instantly. Sometimes during the same working day.
    Also, for personal online loans, you can apply through solely online lenders or through some financial companies or institutions that also have online loans as an offer.

    What is a personal loan? 

    It is a loan that you, as a private person, take out for a short, limited time. It can be between two and five years. The time is fixed and doesn’t vary, which is different from the line of credit or a credit card. For most US residents personal loan amounts are from $1.000 and $100.000. This depends on your demands and your creditworthiness. Banks and lenders have individual limitations, a set of rules, on how long and how much someone can borrow for a personal loan.

    One of the characteristics of personal loans is that they are typically unsecured. And that is an advantage of this kind of loan because you don’t need to provide some kind of collateral. For example, you don’t need a house as collateral backing the loan. 

    There are many lenders that offer personal loans. Lenders could be traditional brick-and-mortar banks or online-only. They accept borrowers with various credit scores, income, and other conditions needed to get personal online loans.

    We will walk you through the process of how you can find the right lender for you depending on your income, credit history, interest rates. We will explain to you what you can’t use the loan for. Picking the right lender may save you a lot of time but, as more important, a lot of money.

    Personal online loans offer a handy solution

    For example, you need cash and you need it quickly. The main advantage of online lenders is that they can give you a quick answer to your request. So, online lenders are a quick, suitable choice, maybe more than banks or credit unions. 

    The other benefit is that online lenders usually offer lower rates but there are also some other things, very important and useful if you choose to apply for personal online loans.

    First of all, the majority of online lenders allow you to pre-qualify. That is a unique offer because you can compare rates from different lenders by pre-qualifying online and find the lowest. The other benefit is that they can fund a loan very quickly, the approval will come on the same day, sometimes in the space of several minutes. The loan will be funded inside a day or two. 

    Those are important things that make online loans different from others.

    The purposes to get personal online loans

    Personal loans are not an answer to all financial circumstances. Yes, sometimes they are simply a band-aid on incorrect money management. But it can help you if you have credit card debt with high-interest rates, for example, that is almost 25% per year. If you succeed to get a personal loan with a lower interest rate, you’ll be able to pay off your credit card debt faster and pay less on interest.
    Such refinancing is a good example of the purpose to spend your personal loan.

    But we have bad purposes too.

    Don’t try to get a personal online loan if you want to invest in stocks, for example. For that kind of purpose, it is better to save and then invest.

    Maybe the worst purpose of getting a personal loan is for vacations, expenses such as a wedding, expensive rings, or similar. Also, it is better to save for that.

    Someone would like to repair a home and think the personal loan is the best solution. Well, it couldn’t be more wrong. For that purpose, it is better to use a home equity loan since it has a lower interest rate.

    Steps to take before applying for personal online loans

    Before you start the process, decide how much money you really need. The sum you want to borrow should be based on the debt you have to cover and your income. Avoid stretching yourself too thin. If you take out a too-small loan it wouldn’t cover your needs, but also, the too-large loan will put you into paying interest on a larger amount than needed. So, you have to calculate the amount you can handle and do it before applying.
    Also, pick the right type of lender.

    Banks and credit unions take much longer to process your request than online lenders. They also require fewer documents and the application itself is less complicated. And sometimes the speed is most important in getting personal loans.

    The advantages of personal online loans

    Personal online loans have a big advantage – they are comfortable. 

    Doesn’t matter if you choose an online-only or branch-based lender. Both will provide you the loan application online and the possibility to upload verification documents. For example, you’ll need a driver’s license. Well, some branch-based lenders will require your signature on the final documents at a real branch. That is a kind of disadvantage since you would like to apply online. You will not have such a problem with online-only lenders. The whole loan application process will be done online for sure. 

    Prequalification will not hurt your credit score. Moreover, you can submit several prequalification forms to expand the list of possible lenders. 

    The next step is to complete a loan application and agreement to a hard check on your credit reports. Both types of online lenders, online-only or branch-based, require a hard credit check before you sign for a loan. Generally, these inquiries could affect your credit score. But one inquiry will have a small influence on your overall credit score and shouldn’t discourage you from applying for a loan.

    The particularly great advantage of personal online loans is that you can easily compare all your options. The benefit is that you could get the best rates and loan terms for your needs this way. 

    If you want to compare lenders, find a website that allows you to instantly classify and match lenders and loan options based on your situation, and wanted loan sum.

    Disadvantages 

    Online loans may cost you. They are not cheap and usually, they are costlier than loans from credit unions. The problem can arise with different formulas for underwriting because almost every online lender has its own. Also, sometimes it can be difficult to go through the application process for some types of personal online loans. For example, secured personal loans or co-sign loans have complex processes. 

    Also, if you want a loan under $2.000 it might be hard to find a lender since most of them have a minimum at that sum. 

    The main problem is to find reputable online lenders. You can see the ads of some lenders that they don’t care about your credit score or something else that may sound very lucrative at first sight. In most cases they are scammers. Legitimate online lenders will always check your capability to pay the loan. Yes, they will charge you the annual rate from 10% to 30%. The rates will differ based on your creditworthiness, the period of the loan, the loan amount, and, of course, the lender. 

    So, you must be very careful when choosing the lender.

    How to shop for personal online loans? 

    Here are several questions that you’ll need to find the answers for while looking for lenders.

    Online lenders examine extra factors, for example, your education, profession; but only those information related to your credit score and credit history. If you have a bad credit score, you’ll need to fix it first. But remember, it isn’t impossible to get a loan even with a bad credit score.

    What you have to know is the annual percentage rate (short APR) below 36%. That is the amount of the interest rate and all fees. If it is below 36%, financial experts agree it is reasonable for you as a borrower. If some online lender offers APR over 36% you can be certain the loan is unreasonable even if your budget can afford it.

    Do you have all your documentation ready? You can get rate quotes by providing several personal data. But when you decide to apply for a loan, lenders will expect documentation. That is ID form and proof of income, a pay stub or W-2. Still, you can easily upload all documentation, some lenders will accept screenshots, PDFs, scanned documents, or photos taken by your phone.

    The cost of personal online loans depends on your credit score. If you have a better score, you’ll pay the lower rate and less interest. Pay attention to interest rate since it can influence your complete monthly payment as well as the term of payment. If you get a longer-term loan you’ll pay less per month, but the interest amount can be bigger.

  • Mistakes in Options Trading – How To Avoid Them?

    Mistakes in Options Trading – How To Avoid Them?

    Mistakes in Options Trading - How To Avoid Them?
    Options trading isn’t difficult once you understand the basic concepts. They provide great opportunities when you use them correctly and can be dangerous when you use them wrongly. 

    By Guy Avtalyon

    You could make a profit no matter if stocks go down, up, or sideways and these great possibilities could lead you to make mistakes in options trading.  Despite the fact that this sounds great, you could also lose everything you invested in options trading. And you can do that in a short time. 

    Do you want that? Of course not. No one wants to lose money. So, what do we have to do?

    It is important to understand where mistakes in options trading can come from and how to avoid them. The truth is that even the most experienced traders can make mistakes in options trading. They can misunderstand some opportunity, have less caution, literally almost any absence of focus may cause mistakes in options trading. 

    We will examine the most frequent mistakes and how to avoid them and, also, how to overcome them.
    These mistakes are typically made by beginner options traders. So, take time to evaluate them and you can avoid making costly wrong actions.

    What mistakes can you make in options trading?

    Mistake 1: You don’t plan your entries and exits 

    Options trading is more complicated than trading stocks. When you enter the position in options trading, there are a lot more elements to watch and be aware than it is the case when trading stocks. In options trading, you cannot just enter and exit the position. You have to make a lot of adjustments if you want to profit and decrease the risks involved. 

    So the first mistake in options trading is to trade without a plan. This means you’ll enter the position and what is next? What are you going to do? Will you let your emotions to handle your trading? What if the price move against you? Will you pretend nothing is happening and like a child you’ll close your eyes until all problems go away?

    Of course, we know it’s impossible to put emotions out. But, also, we know that you can’t allow your emotions to affect your trading decisions. If you do such a thing, your portfolio could blow out and you’ll end up in losses.

    How to avoid a Mistake 1?

    Simply, trade smarter. It’s easy to say but how to avoid mistakes in options trading, particularly this one?

    Start to plan your exits. Exits are not important just to reduce the losses when things are not going in your favor. You must have an exit plan, in any case, you shouldn’t even enter the position before you have a good exit plan. Your upside exit and downside exit points must be set in advance. That means you already know the price targets. Further, a time frame for each exit is important too so you have to plan it.

    Keep in mind that options are time decaying assets. As the expiration date nears, the scope of decay grows. For example, if you are a long call or put and your expectations are more likely not to happen in the expected time frame, get out of the trade. Don’t wait, just go on to the next one.

    Time decay will not always knock your trade, of course. For example, if you sell options without having them, time decay will work for you. You’ll have a winning trade if time decay erodes the option’s price. You’ll keep the premium for the sale. Yes, that will be all you’ll earn if you are a short seller of a call or put option. The bad thing is that you may expect a great risk if the trade goes wrong.

    So, it isn’t a matter of what do you like or not, what strategy you’re running. You MUST have an exit plan for each trade. Even when you have a winning or losing trade. If your trade is winning don’t be greedy and don’t wait around for more. Exit with profit. If it is the opposite and your trade is losing, don’t wait also because you’ll need to exit the losing trade. Waiting with the hope that losing trade will turn into your favor is too risky.

    With having the plan, when you know your entry and exit points you’ll profit more consistently, you’ll reduce your losses. 

    Mistake 2: Using only the long call and long put strategies

    The important element when starting to trade options is to have a vision for what is possible to happen. In other words, you’ll have to estimate but also, your estimation must be accurate. You can use technical and fundamental analysis or a mixture of both. By using technical analysis you’ll have an interpretation of the volume and price in the charts, also you’ll look for support and resistance zones, trends because you would like to recognize opportunities for buy or sell. Fundamental analysis will show you a company’s financial audits, performance data, and current trends so you’ll be able to view the company’s value. 

    While estimating the different options strategies, you have to be sure the strategy you pick is created to take advantage of the outlook you suppose. You have to decide which is most suitable for your current situation.

    If you limit your trades to long call and long put strategies you’ll limit the probability to use some more profitable strategies. Moreover, they are unique, for options only and not implementable on stocks. 

    How to avoid mistakes in options trading?

    In trading options, you can trade an upward as well as downward move, a move in each direction, or without movement. Besides, you can trade, for example, an increase in volatility, or a decrease in volatility, etc. Is there any reason why shouldn’t you use some of these strategies and add them to your trading toolbox?

    Of course, not all options strategies will be good for every trader. There are some trading strategies that you don’t enjoy running. Maybe you didn’t have luck with them in the past. It isn’t necessary to use them but it can be useful to know them. Just try out the new strategy in a small size. That will not increase the cost per trade but new strategies might be interesting but most importantly, maybe you’ll find your next favorite strategy.

    Mistake 3: You wait too long to buy back short strategy

    This strategy can turn into a great mistake. You must be ready to buy back short strategies early. For example, if a trade is going in your favor it is easy to love the fanfare, but the trade may easily turn in a different direction. 

    We have heard numerous explanations of why traders are waiting too long to buy back options they have sold. Some were betting the contract would expire worthlessly, some didn’t want to pay the commission to get out of the positions,  or were just greedy hoping to get more profit out of the trade. The list of excuses is very long.

    How to avoid all mistakes in options trading?

    When a short option gets out-of-the-money and you want to buy it back, just do it. Don’t hesitate. 

    There’s a rule-of-thumb. If you can maintain to hold 80% or more of your original gain from the sale, think about buying it back quickly. Contrarily, a short option will come back and hurt you if you wait too long to close the position.

    Let’s say this way. For instance, you sold a short strategy for $2 and, for example, a week before the expiration date, you have an opportunity to buy it back for $1. Take it! Quite rarely it will be worth an additional week of the risk. 

    Mistake 4: You are buying out-of-the-money options

    This is common for new traders. We almost all tried this in the beginning. The reason is obvious. Out-of-the-money options are the cheapest and it looks like a great plan to start with them. Well, they are that cheap with a great reason and we understood that later. These options have very little chances of ending in the money. Most frequently they end up worthlessly. Trading these options is more a lottery game where you have to buy numerous tickets to see one that pays off and break even.

    When you buy these options, you must be accurate in timing and direction both. Even if you hold these options longer, a move in the right direction will not help you out. With approaching expiration, there is less possibility for these options to end up in the money. It’s more likely they will remain cheap.

    How to avoid this mistake?

    Try to get long calls or long puts at the money or in the money. That will increase their value since the options will be more costly than the out-of-the-money equivalent. So the probability of success will increase and it will deserve money.

    Mistake 5: Trying to overcome the past losses by doubling up

    All traders have certain absolute rules. They are playing well unless a trade turns against you. That experience is common for every single trader. Almost everyone was faced with a trade that turned against expectations. The first reaction is to break all adopted trading rules and continue trading the same option they started with. 

    Have you ever heard a saying “doubling up to catch up?” But it falls into stock trading. For example, if you bought the stock at $50 and you loved it, you’ll still love it at $30 because the lower price will give you a chance to buy more shares. This isn’t relevant in the world of options trading. It can be one of the great mistakes in options trading.

    How to avoid this mistake?

    This strategy called doubling up isn’t suitable for options trading. Don’t use it. Keep in mind that options are derivatives and that their prices don’t move the same direction as the underlying stock. 

    Yes, this strategy can lower your cost per contract for the entire position, but it can compound the risks. So when a trade goes against you, just ask yourself: “Is this a trade I would like to execute?” So, what to do in this case. Simply close the trade to cut losses and find another opportunity. To say this simply, it is smarter to take a loss now than wait and have bigger losses later.

    Everyone can make mistakes in options trading. They can be costly especially if you are trading cheap options. 

    Never think that cheap options can give you the same value as low‑priced options. Cheap options might have a bigger risk. You can lose everything you invested in them and more. the lower the likelihood is that it will reach expiration in the money. Before taking any action try to understand where the mistakes in options trading may arise.

  • Create a Forex Strategy – How to Do That?

    Create a Forex Strategy – How to Do That?

    update: 2/1/22

    Create a Forex Strategy - How to Do That?
    Almost everyone can set up the rules but stick with them when things go bad means that you have confidence in your forex strategy. 

    Yes, the question of how to create a forex strategy is maybe the most tricky part for all you would like to know more about forex trading before entering the forex market.
    The main goal of finding how to create a forex strategy is to choose the one which will provide you the protection against the losing trades but give you a chance to have more winning ones. Otherwise, you’ll lose your money invested in the forex market.

    You can achieve this thanks to a proven forex strategy. 

    To know how to create a forex strategy you have to follow some rules. Well, it’s maybe better to call them steps. By using this set of rules you’ll be able to create any forex trading strategy, from the simplest one to the most complex.
    The main problem for the majority of forex traders is that they rely on some strategy that isn’t well tested. That leads them to great losses and failure. Even if you spend hours, days searching the internet, it may happen you’ll not find any suitable for you.

    The only solution is to learn how to create a forex strategy that can meet your goals.

    Knowing what rules to follow

    As we said, there are some rules you have to follow when you start to create a forex strategy. But firstly, we have to highlight one thing. It doesn’t require too much time to come up with a forex strategy, but it does take time and effort to test it. As you can see, you have to be patient with that because it can benefit you. If you create a forex strategy and test it extensively and you see it works for you, it could lead you to earn potentially a lot of money.

    Rule No 1

    The first rule is that you have to know what kind of forex trader you want to be. Do you want to be a day or swing trader? So, knowing the time frame is the first rule when you start to create a forex strategy.

    How to do that, how can you know what kind of trader you want to be?

    From the very beginning, you have to decide if you would prefer to look at charts every day, week, month or maybe every year. Also, the time frame rule will answer you about how long you would like to hold on to the positions. So, you have to define which time frame you want to use to trade. It’s true that you will look at various time frames, but this particular one will be your main time frame and the trade signal will come from there.

    Rule No 2

    The next rule is to detect indicators that will help you to identify a new trend. One of the main goals in forex trading is to recognize trends earliest possible. For that, you’ll need indicators.

    For example, the moving average is one of them. As we learned from elite traders and according to our experience, the best way is to use two indicators. It is quite simple. Just use one fast and one slow. All you have to do is to wait until the fast indicator crosses under or above the slow indicator. This is a so-called crossover. Moving average crossover is the simplest and fastest way to notice a new trend. There are many other indicators but this one is more comfortable to use and the easiest one.

    But be careful, the last thing you’ll need is to pick a fake trend so you’ll need a confirmation of the trend. For that, you have to use some other indicators. For example, RSI, MACD or Stochastic. It’s up to you to find the one that suits you the best but it will come after you gain more experience in forex trading.

    Rule No 3

    You have to know your risk tolerance. Before you implement any trading strategy or develop your rules, it is very important to define how much risk you want to take in each trade. In other words, how much money you can afford to lose per trade. However, no one would like to talk about losing trades, but it is crucial for everyone to consider potential losses much before you imagine how big your winning trade can be. So, you’ll have to learn about risk management. Risk tolerance is individual and differs from trader to trader.

    Rule No 4

    You have to know when to enter and exit the trade, so entry and exit points are extremely important. After you define how much money you are ready to lose per trade, it is time to figure out where to enter and exit the trade to get profit. Basically, you enter the trade as soon as your indicators provide you a sure signal. Some traders enter the trade before the candle in their charts is closed, some will enter when it is closed. It’s up to you and your trading style, meaning are you an aggressive trader or not. 

    What really matters is to stick to your practices. After all, you are the one who developed it.

    Create a forex strategy on your own

    When you are looking to create a forex trading strategy, you would like to know how to do that and how to develop trust in the strategy you created. Your forex trading strategy MUST give you a strongly rooted belief that you can trade it and profit. Otherwise, you’ll fail.

    So, before you use it, you’ll have to test it.

    Before you even start to create a forex strategy you must have some presumptions. You’ll need a feeling that it might work for you. Yes, it will be a struggle but once when things get going you’ll be unbelievably satisfied.

    Frankly, creating a forex strategy isn’t an easy job. You’ll have to define what exactly you need. This is extremely important because you’ll need to test your strategy precisely. That means you’ll need to know both entries and exits. But it is a small part of creating a forex strategy.

    What should you know before starting to create a forex strategy?

    Here are some questions that you may follow to find the answers and when you have done it, you’ll see that you have your strategy. Maybe not all fall into creating a strategy but they will surely help you a lot to create a forex strategy. 

    First, you have to decide on which currency pairs you can trade your strategy.

    So, make a market selection.

    The other question you should ask and find out the answer is will your strategy work on different market conditions. For example, is it useful in trending markets, high volatile markets, bull or bear markets?

    Also, as we mentioned above, the entry time frame is important. Ask yourself which time frame to use to enter the trade. Would you prefer a lower time frame to entry or high time frame for trend direction? What circumstances have to be met to enter a trade? When it comes to exits you have to figure out do you want to use a fixed take profit level or profit level based on average true range. That is a technical indicator invented to read market volatility.

    The decision of which chart setup you’ll use can be of great importance.

    The type of chart, what indicators to include, which settings for the indicators, etc.

    Further, you’ll have to choose a position sizing strategy. That means you’ll have to decide will you use a percentage-based position sizing. Maybe you would like to increase your position size periodically. Will you use some fixed lot or contract sizes?

    Also, just to repeat, define your risk tolerance and money management. You have to determine the risk-reward ratio you want to get. Will you use a trailing stop-loss? Which one: based on percentages, volatility-based, fixed pips values or ticks values? Will you use stop-loss orders and how will you move them? 

    Do you plan to enter various correlated currency pairs at once? How will you hedge your position? By using inversely correlated pairs or something else? Are you planning to monitor your trades constantly? Would you hold your trades over the weekends?

    Maybe the last but for sure not the least, do you follow the news and how frequent? 

    If you want to create a forex strategy, you’ll need the answers to all these questions. So, take your time.

    The next step is backtesting. To get accurate information about how good your strategy is you have to follow your strategy, never change the rules while testing or your data will not be accurate. For testing use a representative sample of your trades based on the questions above. Examine how your strategy is working in different market conditions for different currency pairs. 

    And you’ll be able to trade for real after you have done all of this. But keep in mind that live trading with real money can differ from your tests because the real money is involved.

    Bottom line

    So, you started to create a forex strategy. Is it simple? Of course, it isn’t for good reason. But you must have the confidence to trade your strategy and to incorporate it into your trading plan.

    Traders-Paradise recommends starting with the smallest lot size your picked platform permits. If it shows the profitability you may keep using your forex trading strategy. Later, you can increase your position size. The strategy you created should work in the long run.

    If you prefer to trade stock patterns we are recommending to learn it more from the “Two Fold Formula” book and. Also to test it with a virtual trading system.