It is possible to predict movement on the Forex market based on several factors.
I know some of you will wonder if it is possible to predict movement in the forex market. We are all suspicious about any kind of predictions, so why wouldn’t we be when it comes to the forex? On the other hand, almost every successful forex trader will tell you that successful trading comes from the ability to predict the movement in the forex market. So they must know something or they have some secret ingredients or skills.
I want to tell you that the ability to predict movement in forex isn’t something you can be born with. Actually, it is something you are building all your trading life. To create that complicated construction, you must understand the factors that influence a currency’s exchange rate. Of course, if you want to profit from forex trading.
Well, why shouldn’t you?
Millions of traders want to trade Forex because they understand it is the best market to trade. The potential of the online trading market is excellent.
So I want to tell you more about the factors you should consider in trading forex. That could help you to predict movement in the Forex market in a way to have better chances for success.
Predict movement in the Forex market
One of these factors you have to pay attention to is economic growth. The central banks in a country with a strong economy will raise the interest rate to prevent inflation. Higher interest rates always drive the growth of the number of investors, which means the demand for domestic currency increases.
Another factor you should understand is geo-politics. You have to watch and notice any kind of disturbance in the political scene. I know you might think it’s too dull. Well, this is very important if you want to predict movement in the forex market because political changes can change the direction of the exchange rate. We saw this so many times in history. If you want to trade currencies successfully, you’ll need to follow political and economic news.
Speaking about interest rates, keep in mind that some currency’s value increases along with rising interest rates. This increased value is known as capital appreciation. That is exactly what gives you the opportunity to profit in trading forex. The currency rate is associated with interest rates. So pay attention to it. The data you gather could be a great help in predicting movements in the Forex market.
Arguably one of the most important factors is recognizing if the currency is conditioned on the country’s capital or trade flow. Capital flow represents the amount of investment some country receives from international capital reservoirs. Trade flow represents income produced from trade. So, you’ll notice that some countries depend on capital flow, while others are very dependent on trade flows.
The least important factors are mergers and acquisitions when we talk about predicting movements in the forex market. Still, mergers and acquisitions can show you near-term currency changes. Smart traders always pay a lot of attention to them.
Sure ways to predict movement in the Forex market
The power to predict movement in the forex market can differentiate a profitable trader from a loser. It’s essential to understand the factors that cause changes in the currency’s price value if you want to last in the forex market. Here is another set of factors that will help you predict any movement in the forex market and allow you to get an advantage in the trade.
The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is one of the reliable methods. This measure indicates when the prices of consumer goods are rising or falling. When CPI is above 100, you can be sure the inflation is on the scene. On the other hand, we can be talking about deflation when it is under 100, as the prices are falling. You can calculate CPI per formula
where Ct is the cost of a market basket at the current time, and C0 is the cost of a market basket at some point in the past with which it is compared.
How does this influence forex trading?
It’s quite simple. If the inflation rate is steady, you’re sure you can trade a specific currency pair. On the other hand, if the inflation rate is high, stay away, or you’ll end up in losses.
Catastrophic natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or floods ordinarily change a country’s currency and never in a favorable direction. The consequences of these events could cause a currency to depreciate.
Also, wars! They might have a calamitous result on the economy. I’m not talking about the damage to infrastructure. The currency value can be diminished, which is more important. It would help if you were updated on such an event to predict the movement in the Forex market. If you trade a currency pair that consists of the country’s currency in war, wait till the economy stabilizes.
You must have information at your disposal to help you trade forex. No one is saying you should trade without risks involved, but you should calculate the risk. It is the key principle if you want to make a maximum profit. Forex traders are always updated on events that may change the currency pair’s rate. By knowing them, you’ll be able to strategize your trades better. You’ll have a clue when to enter or exit the position.