Tag: currency pairs

  • Sterling is good, the US dollar is trading almost flat

    Sterling is good, the US dollar is trading almost flat

    Sterling is good

    EUR/USD is by far the most important and liquid pair

    The dollar index closed yesterday’s trading session in the red zone. The Fed cut its main interest rate range by 25 basis points. The central banks of Canada and Japan held the essential marks of monetary policy at the same level. The release of important economic reports is expected.

    Sterling stays good this week and it is possible to have another run at 1.3000 against the US dollar. 

    Sterling is good

    The EUR/USD pair is sitting moderately higher on the day at around 1.1160 levels. It is similar to where it was traded on Thursday during the European morning.

    Prev Open: 1.11528
    Open: 1.11517
    Day’s range: 1.11487 – 1.11688
    52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

    While buyers are looking to place more upside control with near-term resistance, closer to 1.1179,  the important level to look out for will be the 200-day MA 1.1196 and also the offers holding near 1.1200.

    Traders are currently 51% net-short GBPUSD.

     

    But wait for the US jobs report later at 1230 GMT.

    Buyers are keeping near-term control since the FOMC meeting concluded but unless they can break the resistance levels above, sellers will look to drive the price back lower in the future sessions.

    For now, large expiries are seen resting at 1.1150 and 1.1200 so that may factor into keeping the price within a more stingy range before they roll off later today. 

    The dollar was lower this morning but now losses are seen. 

    Sterling is good, majors have stabilized. Investors are waiting to see the publication of the US labor market report for October. That could have an important influence on the rate of adjustment of the Fed’s monetary policy. Current economic statements from the United States have been combined. Experts expect a decline in key indicators of the labor market. Presently, the local support and resistance levels on the EUR/USD currency pair are 1.11400 and 1.11750. We suggest opening positions from these marks.

  • Currency Carry Trade –  What is It and How to Profit from It?

    Currency Carry Trade – What is It and How to Profit from It?

    3 min read

    Currency Carry Trade - What is It and How to Profit from It?

    A currency carry trade is a popular technique among currency traders.

    It is when a trader borrows a currency at a low-interest rate to fund the purchase of another currency earning a higher interest rate.

    In the forex market, currencies are traded in pairs, as you already know. For example, when you buy USD/GBP you are actually buying the U.S. dollar and selling Great Britain pound at the same time.

    You pay interest on the currency you sell and collect interest on the currency you buy.

    In the forex market, interest payments occur every trading day based on your position.

    Actually, all positions are closed at the end of the day in the forex market. But you don’t see it happen if you hold a position to the next day.

    Brokers just close and reopen your position. Then they credit or debit you the overnight interest rate differential between the currencies.

    This is the cost of “carrying” a position to the next day.

    The amount of leverage makes the carry trade very popular.

    Most forex trading is margin based. That means you have to place a small amount of the position and your broker will place the rest. Majority of brokers requires as little as 1% or 2% of a position.  

    The currency carry trade is borrowing in the currency of a country with a low-interest rate and using the funds to invest in the currency of another country with a higher interest rate.

    And, of course, profiting from the difference.

    For example, the popular carry trade is borrowing funds in Japanese yen and investing it in U.S. dollars.

    How does currency carry trade work

    Currency markets offer investors access to an asset class that is highly liquid and has the potential for gaining risk-adjusted returns. It, also, can show some similarity to traditional investments in a diversified portfolio.

    The main goal in currency markets is to capture the gain of interest rate differentials between currencies, known as ‘the carry’.
    The short-term interest rates can vary significantly across countries because of their different policy objectives. The macroeconomic imbalances have the influence too.

    Currency Carry Trade - What is It and How to Profit from It? 1
    Countries with higher growth rates tend to have higher interest rates and stronger currencies.

    A so-called ‘positive carry’ trade is one in which an investor borrows money in countries where interest rates are low and invests in a country where interest rates are higher.

    This means that the investor sells (goes short) a position in low-interest rate currencies and buys (goes long) a higher interest rate currency.

    The difference in interest rates between the two countries, ‘the carry’, will, over a period of time, be offset by the change in the exchange rate between the two countries.

    However, exchange rates move in the expected direction, but not enough to offset the carry. This means that a positive return can be expected.

    The inefficiency of the markets offers investors the opportunity to gain from exchange rate movements in addition to benefiting from the carry.

    The profit or loss from a positive carry trade can be calculated:

    Profit from ‘the carry’ (interest rate differential) + Profit/loss from exchange rate movements

    In simple words, the traders pay a low-interest rate on the borrowed/sold currency, they simultaneously collect higher interest rates on the currency that they bought.

    The interest rate differential between the two currencies is profit.

    Currency carry trade gives traders a choice to “buy low and sell high”. Most forex “carry” trades involve currency pairs such as the NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY because of the high-interest rate spreads.

    Pros and cons of currency carry trade

    In addition to trading gains, currency carry trade gives you also interest earnings. Carry trading also lets you make use of leverage to trade assets you would not differently be able to yield.

    The daily interest paid on the currency carry trade is based on the leveraged amount. That can make for enormous profits from an inexpensive outlay.

    Currency Carry Trade - What is It and How to Profit from It? 2

    Still, currency carry trading brings significant risk. This comes due to the uncertainty in exchange rates.

    If a trader fails to hedge their position appropriately, high levels of leverage employed in carry trades could result in large losses. This means that even small movements in exchange rates may cause losses.

    So, we can say, currency carry trading is a good option for traders with a high-risk desire.

    The currency carry trade,  is potentially profitable, but gives a decent amount of risk.

    Why is this? This is because the best currencies for this kind of trading are some of the most volatile.

    Every single market sentiment among traders in the currency market can have a hard impact on “carry pair” currencies. Without sufficient risk management, a trader’s account can be wiped out by a cruel twist.

    The best time to enter carry trades is when fundamentals and market sentiment support them. At times of positive market sentiment when investors are in a buying mood.

    The bottom line

    Currency carry trade has the potential to be very profitable over the long term if precisely managed. It can be a constant stream of income. Also, it can mitigate you from the negative effects of exchange rate movements.

    In a currency carry trade, an investor potentially stands to profit or lose both from the relative movement of the exchange rate and the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Markets that present a high-interest rate differential often present higher currency volatility and an unexpected weakening of the target currency purchased could generate losses. To be profitable, the interest rate differential of a carry trade must be greater than the possible weakening of the target currency over the period of time that the trade is executed.

    Don’t waste your money.

     risk disclosure

  • Forex Trading – What Are You Really Selling or Buying?

    Forex Trading – What Are You Really Selling or Buying?

    Forex Trading Program - How To Choose The BestA forex market can be profitable for beginner traders but have to know what exactly they are trading

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Forex trading is for many people still unclear, many are confused with what they are really selling and buying in the currency market. So, let’s make clear what forex trading is!

    The forex market sharpens on the trade of currencies by both large investment banks and individuals all over the world. All trading is done over-the-counter. That adds to the market’s liquidity, enabling trades 24/7. Trading can be done in almost all currencies. However, there is a small group known as the ‘majors’. They are used in most trades. These currencies are the U.S. dollar, the euro, the British pound, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar, and the Australian dollar.

    Forex Trading - What Are You Really Selling or Buying? 1

    It is possible to trade many minor currencies also known as ‘exotics’. Such currencies are the Mexican peso (MXN), the Polish zloty (PLN), or the Norwegian krone (NOK). As these currencies are not so often traded the market is less liquid. So the trading spread may be wider.

    What is the aim of forex trading

    Forex trading is like any other speculation. The point is to buy a currency at one price and sell it later at a higher price. Also, traders van sell a currency at a high price and buy it at later a lower price. The point is to make a profit. Some confusion can occur as the price of one currency is always, of course, determined in another currency.

    For instance, the price of one British pound could be measured as, for example, $2. That is in case the exchange rate between GBP and USD is 2 precisely. In forex trading, in this case, the value for the British pound would be expressed as a price of 2.0000 for the forex pair GBP/USD. Currencies are arranged into pairs to show the exchange rate between the two currencies.

    In other words, the price of the first currency is expressed in the second currency. The forex market is important because it is the most liquid and largest market. Also, it is about how money is transferred around the world.

    A trade is in the forex has two sides.

    Someone is buying one currency in the pair, at the same time another person is selling the other. The positions traded in forex are often in excess of 100,000 currency units, but only a fraction of the total position comes from the investor.

    Forex Trading - What Are You Really Selling or Buying?

    Image currency pair. Source: Yahoo Finance

    The rest is implemented by a broker, which offers the leverage required to make the trade.

    How to make a profit in Forex trading

    Traders want to make a profit by betting that a currency’s value will either appreciate or depreciate against the other currency in the pair.  For example, suppose that you purchase US$100,000 by selling 70,000 euros. If you do so, you are actually betting that the value of the dollar will increase against the euro. If your bet is correct and the value of the dollar rises, you will make a profit.

    But to collect this profit, you will have to close your position. This means, you must sell the US$100,000, in which case you will receive more than 70,000 euros in return. It isn’t required from traders to settle their positions on the delivery date. That usually occurs two business days after the position is opened. Traders can roll over their positions to the next accessible delivery date.

    However, if traders take this way, they are left open to incurring a charge that can arise depending on their position and the difference between the interest rates on the two currencies in the pair.

    Forex trading spread

    It is like any other trading price. The spread for a forex pair consists of a bid price at which you can sell (that is the lower end of the spread) and an offer price at which you can buy (this is the higher end).

    When buying, the spread always reflects the price for buying the first currency of the forex pair with the second.

    For example, an offer price of 1.4000 for EUR/USD means that it will cost you $1.40 to buy €1. You would buy it if you think that the price of the euro against the dollar is going to rise. Of course, if you think you will later be able to sell your €1 for more than $1.340. That’s your betting.

    When you want to sell, the spread provides you the price for selling the first currency for the second.

    For example, a bid price of 1.4000 for EUR/USD means that you can sell €1 for $1.40. You would sell if you think that the price of the euro is going to fall against the dollar. Because you want to buy back your €1 for less than the $1.40 you originally paid for it.

    How to calculate your profit?

    This is just an example, don’t panic, please.

    Suppose the spread for EUR/USD is 0.8414-0.8415. If you think the price of the euro is going to rise against the dollar you would buy euros at the offer price of 0.8415 per euro. Say in this case you buy €10,000 at a cost to you of $8415.

    The spread for EUR/USD rises to 0.8532-0.8533 and you decide to sell your euros back into dollars at the bid price of 0.8532. The €10,000 you previously bought is now therefore sold for $8532. Your profit on this transaction is $8532 minus the original cost of buying the euros ($8415) which is $117.

    Remember, your profit is always determined in the second currency of the forex pair.

    Let’s suppose in the first example you believe the price of the euro is going to fall. So you decide to sell €10,000 at the first bid price of 0.8414, for $8414.

    In this example, you are right and the spread for EUR/USD falls to 0.8312-0.8313. You decide to buy back your €$10,000 at the offer price of 0.8313, a cost of $8313. The cost of buying back the euros is $111 less than you originally sold the euros for, so this is your profit on the transaction. To repeat, the profit you’ll possibly make is determined in the second currency of the forex pair.

    The most common patterns in Forex trading

    There are 3:  Head & Shoulders pattern, Pin Bar, and Double Top / Bottom

    How to use Head & Shoulders pattern?

    Head & Shoulders pattern is an easy way to develop trading skills.
    The first thing you must know is that Head and Shoulders is a reversal pattern. Meaning, when it’s an uptrend, the price goes up, doing its shoulders and head patterns and then reverse for a downtrend.

    Those are somehow easy to locate when using this image to see what we should look for in an actual chart.

    In the image below, you can how it looks on a real EUR/USD chart:

    How to use the Pin bar pattern?

    One of the most important candlestick patterns you should pay close attention to.
    If a pin bar appears it means that there is a very high probability that trend may reverse or pullback. The pin bar is often called “Pinocchio” bar, and it looks like this:

     

    How to use a Double Top / Bottom pattern?

    Often, if you see a double top like in the following image, it can mean there’s a downtrend on the way.

     

    If you want to go for regulated forex trading, at least start with simulated trading.

    However, only do this on a trusted platform because there are many scams on platforms that falsify your trades, They can make you think you are gaining, thereby seducing you to perform the real funds.
    Happy Forex trading!

    Don’t waste your money.