Tag: value

  • Calculate Portfolio Performance

    Calculate Portfolio Performance

    Calculate Portfolio Performance
    Don’t base the success of your investment portfolio on returns alone. Use these three sets of measurement tools to calculate portfolio performance.

    The main goal to calculate portfolio performance is to measure the value created by the investor’s risk management. The majority of investors will judge the success of their portfolios based on returns. But it isn’t enough. To have a sense of how our investment portfolio is well-diversified and how much risk we take we need to calculate portfolio performance. In other words, we need a measure of both risk and return in the portfolio to judge its success. Until the 1960s no one paid attention to the risks involved in obtaining returns. But today we have several ways to calculate portfolio performance and measure it. 

    Our aim is to present you with these valuable tools. 

    Sharpe, Jensen and Treynor ratios pair risk and return performances, and unite them into unique value. Well, each of them operates a bit differently so we can choose one to calculate portfolio performance or mix all three ratios.

    Calculate Portfolio Performance Using Sharpe Ratio

    Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of an investment portfolio. Or in other words, by calculating it we can find a measure of excess return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. It is common to use the 90-day Treasury bill rate as the representative for the risk-free rate. This ratio is named after William F Sharpe. He is a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.

    The formula is:

    ​Sharpe ratio= (PR−RFR) / SD

    ​In this formula, PR represents the expected portfolio return, RFR is the risk-free rate, while SD represents a portfolio’s standard deviation which is a measure for risk. Standard deviation reveals the variation of returns from the average return. So we can say that if the standard deviation is great, the risk involved is also great. 

    So, you can see how the Sharpe ratio is simple to calculate since it has only 3 variables. 

    But let’s calculate portfolio performance more realistic. For example, our portfolio has a 20% rate return. The whole market scored 15%. So, we may think that our portfolio is greater than the market, right? But it isn’t a proper opinion. How is that? Well, we didn’t calculate the risk we had to take to earn such a great rate return. What if we took much more risk than we thought. That would mean that our portfolio isn’t optimal. Let’s go further in this analysis. Imagine that our portfolio has a standard deviation of 15% and the overall market has 8%, and the risk-free rate is 3%. This is just a random example. Let’s calculate portfolio performance now using the Sharp ratio formula.

    Sharp ratio for our portfolio: (20 – 3) / 15 = 1.13

    and

    Sharp ratio for the market: (15 – 3) / 8 = 1.5

    Can you see now?

    While our portfolio scored more than the overall market, our Sharpe Ratio was notably less. So, our portfolio with a lower Sharpe Ratio was a less optimal portfolio even though the return was higher. This means we took an excess risk without extra bonus. But it isn’t the same case when it comes to the overall market, it is actually the opposite. When the market has a higher Sharpe ratio, it has a higher risk-adjusted return. The best portfolio is not the portfolio with the highest return. Rather, an excellent portfolio has a higher risk-adjusted return.

    Sharpe ratio is more suitable for well-diversified portfolios because it more correctly considers the risks of the portfolio. 

    Jensen ratio

    The Jensen ratio gauges how much of the portfolio’s rate of return is attributable to our capability to produce returns above average, and adjusted for market risk. 

    The Jensen ratio measures the excess return that a portfolio produces over the expected return. This figure of return is also recognized as alpha. Let’s say that our portfolio has positive excess returns, so it has a positive alpha. On the other hand, a portfolio with a negative excess return has a negative alpha.

    The formula is:

    Jenson’s alpha = PR−CAPM

    Here, PR stands for portfolio return and CAPM is risk-free rate+β( beta). We know that beta is the return of the market risk-free rate of return.

    ​By using Jensen’s alpha formula we can calculate an investment’s risk-adjusted value. It is also known as Jensen’s Performance Index or ex-post alpha. Jensen’s alpha tries to determine the unusual return of a portfolio no matter what assets it consists of. This formula was first introduced by the economist Michael Jensen. Investors use this formula to calculate portfolio performance by enabling them to discover if an asset’s average return is adequate to its risks.

    Regularly, the higher the risk, the greater the expected return. So, that’s why evaluating risk-adjusted performance is especially important for making investment decisions. It will allow doing this. 

    This Jensen’s alpha also can be expressed as 

    Jensen’s alpha = Portfolio return – ((Risk-Free Rate + Portfolio Beta x (Market Return – Risk-Free Rate))

    The alpha figure can be positive or negative. When it is higher positive values that suggest better performance in comparison to expectations while negative rates showed that the assets perform below expectations. Jensen’s alpha is expressed in percentages. 

    Let’s take the example of a stock with a return per day based on CAPM. And we see that it is 0.20% but the real stock return is 0.25%. So, Jensen’s alpha is 0.05%. Is it a good indicator? Yes, you can be sure.

    The purpose of this measure is to help investors to go for assets that grant maximum returns but with minimum risks.

    For example, you found two stocks that are offering similar returns. But one with less risk would be more profitable for investors than the one with greater risk. When calculating Jensen’s alpha you would like to see a positive alpha since that indicates an abnormal return.

    Treynor ratio

    The Treynor ratio is very useful to calculate portfolio performance. It is a measure that uses portfolio beta,  a measure of systematic risk. That is different from the Sharpe Ratio that adjusts return with the standard deviation. 

    This ratio represents a quotient of return divided by risk. The Treynor Ratio is named after Jack Treynor, the economist, and developer of the Capital Asset Pricing Model.

    The formula is expressed as:

    Treynor ratio = (PR−RFR) / β

    The symbols are well-known, PR stands for portfolio return, RFR refers to the risk-free rate and β is portfolio beta.

    We can see that this ratio takes into account both the return of the portfolio and the portfolio’s systematic risk. From a mathematical viewpoint, this formula expresses the quantity of excess return from the risk-free rate per unit of systematic risk. And just like the Sharpe ratio, it is a return/risk ratio.

    Let’s assume we would like to compare two portfolios. One is the equity portfolio and the other is the fixed-income portfolio. How can we decide which is a better investment? Treynor Ratio will help us pick the better one.

    To put this simply, assume for the purpose of this article only, the equity portfolio has a total return of 9%, while the fixed-income portfolio has a return of 7%. Also, the proxy for the risk-free rate is 3%. Further, let’s suppose that the beta of the equity portfolio is 1.5, while the fixed-income portfolio has a beta of 1.25

    Let’s calculate for each portfolio!

    Treynor ratio for a equity portfolio = (9% – 3%) / 1.5 = 0.040 

    Treynor ratio for a fixed-income portfolio = (7% – 3%) / 1.25 = 0.032

    So, the Treynor ratio of the equity portfolio is higher which means a more favorable risk/return option. Since the Treynor ratio is based on past performance it is possible not to be repeated in the future. But you will not rely on just one ratio when making an investment decision. You have to use other metrics too.

    For the Treynor ratio, it is important to know that the negative value of beta will not give exact figures. Also, while comparing two portfolios this ratio will not show the importance of the difference of the values. For instance, if the Treynor ratio of one portfolio is 0.4 and for the other 0.2, the first isn’t surely double better.

    Bottom line

    To calculate portfolio performance we have to determine how our portfolio has performed relative to some benchmark. Performance calculation and evaluation methods fall into two categories, conventional and risk-adjusted. The most popular conventional methods combine benchmark and style comparison. The risk-adjusted methods are focused on returns. They count the differences in risk levels between our portfolio and the benchmark portfolio. The main methods are the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen’s alpha. But there are many other methods too.

    But one is sure, portfolio performance calculations are a key part of the investment decision. Keep in mind, portfolio returns are just a part of the whole process. If we never evaluate the risk-adjusted returns, we will never have the whole picture. That could lead to wrong decisions and losses, literally.

  • Stock Market Bubble How to Recognize It

    Stock Market Bubble How to Recognize It

    Stock Market Bubble
    What is a stock market bubble? How a stock market bubble is created? What is the definition?

    We are talking about a stock market bubble when the prices of stocks rise fast and a lot over the short period and suddenly start to drop also quickly. Usually, they are falling below the fair value.

    A stock market bubble influences the market as a whole or a particular sector. A bubble happens when investors overvalue stocks. Investors can overestimate the value of the companies or trade without reasonable estimation of the value.

    How does this thing work?

    Let’s say investors are massively buying some particular stock. They become overly eager to buy. How does that affect the stock price? The stock price is going up. The traders notice the growing potential and believe that the stock price will rise more and they are also buying that stock with an aim to sell it at a higher price. 

    This trading cycle has nothing with the usual criteria related to trade. When this cycle lasts long enough it can extremely overvalue the stock or some other asset, generating a stock market bubble that will burst.

    Because a stock market bubble is a cycle defined as speedy increase, followed by a decrease.

    We would like to explain this in more detail. When more and more traders enter the market, believing that they also can profit and perhaps go on the double, but we have a limited supply of some stock, it isn’t unlimited. So, on one side we have an enormous number of traders willing to buy a stock, and on the other side is a limited number of particular stock they are interested in. The consequence is that the stock price will rocket. That sky-high price isn’t supported by the underlying value of the company or stock.

    Finally, some traders realize that the growing trend is unsustainable and start selling off. Other investors start to follow that and catch on and start draining their stocks, in hopes to recover their investments. And here we come to the main point.

    The declining market isn’t investors’ darling. The stock prices are dropping, traders who enter the market too late have losses, the stock market bubble bursts or in a better scenario, deflates.

    Actually, we can easily say that behind the stock market bubbles lies a sort of herd mentality. Everyone wants a piece of high returns, it’s logical, right? Well, it continues with a downward run.

    What causes it?

    When eager investors are pushing the value of the stock, much over its proper value, we can say that we have a bubble. For example, the stock proper value is, let’s say $50 but investors boost it at $150. You can be sure the price will go back to its proper value, soon and extremely fast. The bubble will pop.

    A good example is the dot-com bubble of 1999/2000. The markets were cut from reality. Investors accumulated dot-com stocks so wildly. How was it possible when they knew that a lot of these companies were worthless? They didn’t care. 

    That pushed the NASDAQ to over 5.000 points in a short period. That was the bubble and everything got apart very fast and painful.

    One of the most famous market bubbles took place in the Netherlands (former Holland) during the early 1600s. It is the Dutch tulip bulb market bubble or ‘tulipmania’. 

    What happened? 

    The speculators pushed the value of tulip bulbs sky-high. The rarest tulip bulbs were worth six times more than the average yearly salary. Today, tulipmania is in use as a synonym for the traps due to extreme greed.

    That can happen when someone follows some investor and notices how good it is and suddenly that one decides to do the same. But such copycats are not single individuals in the stock market. There are millions doing exactly the same thing. In a short time, everyone is plunging the money and the market reacts respectively by inflating prices. And eventually, the bubble will burst.

    A stock market bubble as positive and negative feedback loops

    Whatever has begun to shift stock prices up to become self-sustaining is a positive feedback loop. For example, investors hunting higher growth. When prices increase, investors are selling stocks. The others are buying them to profit on the growth. Someone will ask what is wrong with that. Well, new purchasings are driving the prices up higher and more investors are seeking those profits. The cycle is starting. And it is good but only when this positive feedback loop, as economists call this, comes as a reflection of reality. But when the feedback loop is based on fake data or questionable ideas it can be very dangerous. A great example is the Stock Market Crash of 1929. That was a time of blooming speculators in the markets. Speculators are trading stocks with borrowed money. The loan is paid from profit. When speculators have good trades they can make a fortune. In a different scenario, when they try to limit losses on debt, they can lose the shirt.

    The stock prices will go down, the other investors will quickly sell with the same hopes to mitigate losses. The prices will go down further and create a “negative feedback loop” and poor market conditions will bloom. This is exactly what happens when the stock market bubble bursts. The stock prices are going down further as investors try to sell their stocks to cut losses. 

    Bottom line

    As you can see, a stock market bubble happens when investors are buying stocks neglecting the value of the underlying asset. It is caused by a kind of optimism, almost irrationally, despite the rule of thumb: avoid impulsive trading. 

    The crucial nature of a stock market bubble is that trading can go in a direction that is not in your favor. Optimism can fade. Investors seeking higher profits easily can see their own disaster when the growth starts to slip. Why should they stay in positions any longer? They will not, of course. It is opposite, the selling off will start and the stock market bubble bursts. And it can do it for random reasons. Be careful, you can recognize a stock market bubble when everything is done. Only rare investors are able to anticipate it is coming. Well, that’s why they are successful and rich.

  • The value of investments is falling – What to do?

    The value of investments is falling – What to do?

    The value of investments is falling - What to do?
    This can be a big issue, try not to panic, and follow these steps to protect your capital invested.

    by Gorica Gligorijevic

    The value of investments is falling and you are worried. Don’t be, it’s normal from time to time but also, you may profit from it. Let me explain this.

    In stock investing, you have to respect a few general facts. You may face the value of investments fall, as first. What you have to do? To find the reason behind. When you determine the reason you will have a powerful weapon in your hands: you will be able to decide should you sell or hold your stocks. Moreover, you’ll be able to buy a new stock of shares. Well, you can see it isn’t the end of the world. Just think about other opportunities and try not to panic.

    Put your emotions aside and turn on your brain. Your investments are not your sweetheart.

    So, when (notice there is nor “IF”) the value of investments falls, don’t jump immediately to sell them. Yes, the news comes, but just stay cool because it can be temporary. Do you know how many investors lost their fortune reacting impulsively?

    It is painful to watch at stocks are falling in price, that’s true. But take a closer look at historical data of stock you hold. Maybe you can notice some patterns. When and why their value has had fallen before? 

    When the value of investments is falling, identify the pattern

    Yes, it is very important to identify the pattern. 

    Past performances don’t guarantee the future behave but at some point, you will figure out the causality. Most stocks respond to market movements in a logical pattern. And you’ll be ready for the next move. 

    Besides, just looking at the charts can make you more nervous. You must have more information. You must have a clear picture of how the whole industry is performing. Industry in which your beneficial company is working, of course. You are holding its stocks and you have to know something about the sector it is working on. What is about the overall market appearance, what is happening there? Is the market volatile maybe? Moreover, did you read at least one quarterly report from the company whose stocks you hold?

     

    The value of investments is falling don’t get panicked

    Okay, let’s talk about this a bit more. Let’s assume you have all the info. So, what would you do with this?

    The key is to recognize what forces the value of your investments to fall. If you cannot identify the reason behind, you should exit your position.

    Sometimes the gap in the market can cause the value of investments to fall. Or it can happen due to the market’s weakness. If you find this case, you should stay in a position. It isn’t rocket science, it is just market: supply and demand relationship. If you are on the market it is reasonable to have a diversified portfolio, right? This is very important, especially in today’s market. A diversified portfolio will produce a positive return to you. But more importantly, it will allow you to have a return higher than the inflation rate is. So, if you are a long-term investor, just stay cool when the value of investments is falling. Your investment horizon is what is really important. 

    Temporary drops shouldn’t concern you. 

    The question is, what is the main goal of any investing strategy? To gain returns bigger than the overall market for some level of risk. It is always a good concept to check how the performance of your stock is in comparison to the overall market. 

    But what if the value of investments is falling suddenly and it different from past performances? The company is still good as it was when you bought your stock! Think! Maybe the reason for the value of investments falling is exactly there. The company is too good and maybe many investors are willing to buy a stake of its shares. If you are not among them, leave your position and invest in some other company.