Tag: inflation

  • Swedish Krona set on volatile January Inflation

    Swedish Krona set on volatile January Inflation

    2 min read

    Swedish Krona set on volatile January Inflation
    February 18, 2019
    The Swedish krona is the worst-performing significant currency this year. It faced volatility on Swedish inflation data Tuesday. It looks the markets may be underestimating the risk for a surprise.

    According to SEB AB January is the month of the year with the most volatile inflation data. But a check of one-week price fluctuations in the euro-krona exchange rate implies traders are relatively satisfied.

    One-week implied volatility in the cross is trading around 50 basis points below its one-year average. The relative premium to own exposure to short-term risks stands below par. That suggests investors can hedge themselves through insignificantly under-priced option plays.

    The Swedish krona has been damaged this year by doubt that the country’s central bank can stick to a plan to hike interest rates in the second half of the year.  Karl Steiner, a strategist at SEB said that Inflation is the second-biggest driver for the krona among Swedish data and events, after Riksbank policy announcements.

    “Stars seem to be aligning for out-sized moves in the krona considering the event risks that lie ahead,’’ said Fredrik Lockne, an options specialist at SEB. “Implicit volatility looks rather cheap, in particular over the two-week tenor which captures both inflation and growth data.’’

    January data has the obvious inclination for downside surprises in headline inflation, at 71 percent of the time over the past seven years, SEB said. Swedish consumer prices are forecast to have dropped 0.7 percent in January on a monthly basis, from a 0.4 percent rise in December, as many stores cut prices after Christmas holidays. Inflation is forecast at 2.2 percent in annual terms, versus 2.0 percent in December.

    Swedish Krona set on volatile January Inflation 1

    Image source Bloomberg: Swedish krona

    Best Exchange Rate: 10.6955 on 29/08/2018
    Worst Exchange Rate: 0 on 18/02/2019
    Mid Exchange Rate: 10.3044 on 17/07/2018

    Other currencies:

    EUR/USD

    The trend is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday resistance is at 1.1341 price level. This means, as long as the price stays below 1.1341 resistance level, you should look for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.1341 critical resistance level, then down trend is going to end.

    GBP/USD

    The trend is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday resistance is at 1.2995 price level. As long as the price stays below 1.2995 resistance level, you should look for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.2995 resistance level, which stands as critical, then down trend is going to end.

    USD/JPY

    The trend is bullish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday support is at 110.08 price level. As long as the price stays above 110.08 support level, you should look for buy trades. If bearish candlestick closes below 110.08 critical support level, then up trend is going to end.

    USD/CAD

    The trend is bullish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday support is at 1.3195 price level. So, as long as the price stays above 1.3195 support level, look for buy trades. If bearish candlestick closes below 1.3195 critical support level, then up trend is going to end.

    USD/CHF

    The trend is bearish in the 1-hour chart. Intraday resistance is present at 1.0110 price level. So, as long as the price stays below 1.0110 resistance level, look for sell trades. If bullish candlestick closes above 1.0110 critical resistance level, then down trend is going to end.

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  • Cryptocurrencies a Powerful Tool Against Hyperinflation?

    Cryptocurrencies a Powerful Tool Against Hyperinflation?

    2 min read

    Cryptocurrencies against hyperinflation

    Cryptocurrencies are a powerful tool against hyperinflation


    Cryptocurrencies can be a powerful tool in protecting your funds against hyperinflation. There are pros and cons at the same time. In an interview on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian said yes.  He believes cryptocurrencies can be an effective tool in protecting your funds against hyperinflation. The reason he prefers cryptocurrency over regular fiat currency lays, in fact, that ”Cryptocurrencies are fuel for a potentially new internet”, as he said.

    Alexis Ohanian

    Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian

    Ohanian told: “Things like Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are an opportunity for us to have a store of value that is not backed by a single country.” Further, he told that cryptocurrency gives people the ability to control their own money without any fear of forceful government intervention – especially in countries dealing with unstable political and economic predicaments.

    “We sort of take it for granted the fact that we all have bank accounts, and we move money here and there, but for so many people in the world to have actually this security of knowing that what is yours is yours, because it is now digital, could be transferred with you wherever you are going, is actually pretty empowering,” said Alexis Ohanian.

    Ohanian’s viewpoint is that Bitcoin can still offer more stability than the fiat currencies of countries struggling with hyperinflation in spite of the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies. He recently made headlines with his predictions about the price of Ethereum and Bitcoin. A few weeks ago, the Reddit co-founder made a prediction that the prices of BTC and ETH (respectively) will reach $20,000 and $1,500 by the end of the year.

    Many are willing to say that this is an extravagant or pretty baseless prediction.

    But do you remember the end of last year?

    And Ohanian is not the only Silicon Valley entrepreneur who is bullishly optimistic on cryptocurrencies. Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey has also previously expressed believes that Bitcoin will be the world’s primary currency by 2028. 

    The idea of utilizing cryptocurrencies to fight hyperinflation has been explored in multiple countries.

    Such experience has in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina.

    Many people turn to cryptocurrencies during hyperinflation in wish to save themselves from losing their money. This sometimes temporarily drives up the local buy price of the cryptocurrencies.

    We will see.

    For now, the fact is that cryptocurrency gives people the ability to control their own money without any fear of forceful government intervention. Especially in countries dealing with unstable political and economic predicaments.

    Contrary to this Bank of America CTO said that Bitcoin wasn’t ”transparent in the financial moment of money.”

    That is totally strange because the definition of blockchain is – a digital ledger in which transactions made in bitcoin or another cryptocurrency are recorded chronologically and publicly – so they have to realize that Bitcoin is much more transparent than the current banking system.

    Many world big companies such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ jumped into crypto.

    Is the Bitcoin solution for protecting of hyperinflation?

    As you can see some experts say YES, some NO.

    On an example of Venezuela, we may try to find the answer. Venezuela created its own cryptocurrency in order to try to get out of the crisis and they named it – petro. But, it is not like other cryptocurrencies.

    Venezuela cryptocurrency - petro

    The name Petro is a kind of program of that currency: the value of each petroleum will be covered by the crude oil barrel. In addition, as President Nicolas Maduro has announced, as currency insurance other raw materials are used. The “petro” came in response to the Venezuelan authorities’ financial blockade and sanctions, and this is not about ordinary blockchain, but its value is based on state reserves of oil, gold, gas, and diamonds.

    Cryptocurrencies against Hyperinflation

    Two months later, Venezuela offered to sell its crypto, and currently, about 82 million tokens are available, which the government could sell next months. The plan for the sale of the ”petro” currencies is on the website, which was created specifically for this occasion, and the price of one unit depends on the price of one barrel of Venezuelan oil.

    President Maduro’s plan to deal with the economic crisis continues, and it is still expected that Petro will affect the economy of Venezuela, and becomes an alternative to the physical currency.

    OK, Venezuela seems to have broken a common financial law: in the world’s oil trade, the price is always calculated in dollars. But that is the other view of problem.

    Will it is helpful to Venezuela or not we will see. Intention to create their own cryptocurrency has some other countries faced with hyperinflation such as Zimbabwe and Argentina were. On the example of Venezuela, others will make decisions. The point is: can cryptocurrencies be instrument or way to beat hyperinflation?
    Alexis Ohanian and many other experts said yes.

    If you want to know more about the best stocks to invest during the inflation you SHOULD READ THIS