Tag: Diversification

  • The Bear Market Starts – How To Avoid Big Losses?

    The Bear Market Starts – How To Avoid Big Losses?

    The Bear Market Starts - How To Avoid Big Losses?
    We are not clairvoyants so we cannot predict how long this bear market will last, but what we can do is to suggest to you how to overcome this market condition. 

    The bear market starts. Dow Jones closed down over 20% on March 11 compared to its highs in February. That is the end of its historic bull market run. The bear market starts. Actually, it started at the moment as the pandemic was declared by the WHO. What to do with your investments right now? Will the stock market crash?

    No one knows for sure what will happen next. But it is quite possible that the coronavirus could put stocks down for a long time. What makes us afraid is that the bear markets can go along with the recession.

    Investors are panicked. Past several weeks the stock market was switching so fast and unpredictable. Michael Macke, founder of Petros Advisory Services told CNBC Make IT about investors’ feelings: “like we are all Chicken Little.” His comment was relating to the tale about the chicken who was claiming the sky was falling, but the chicken was wrong, right or wrong?  “Only after the fact will we know for sure if we have a bear market or even a recession,” said Macke.

    Nothing can last forever, even bad or good. The good times must come to the end at some point. This is particularly true for the stock market. And this bullish period did it. So, the bear market starts.
    After a fairly exciting run, the stock market lastly jumped into the bear market territory. Investors are disturbed and panicked. 

    But what do we know about the bear market? 

    What to do when the bear market starts

    The bear market is a point when stock prices drop at least 20% from a recent high. They will stay down there for a while. But how long will it take for the stock market to recover? What to do? Will the recession come too? What to do with investments? How to avoid losses and is that possible at all? This is a turbulent time. So many questions but several answers.

    If we try timing the market we’ll be foolish. So, let’s see what experts have to say. First of all, they say drops like this one is a good opportunity to buy more stocks, particularly the people investing for retirement. This is important for younger investors who couldn’t buy stocks during the bullish market because the prices were too high, hitting all the time the new highs. If you have some spare money and you don’t need it in the next, for example, five years, put it in investments. But if you think you will need that cash it is smarter to stay away from the stock market. The history of the 200-years old stock market shows that the market will start to rebound as the bad news stops coming and the prices will stop to decline. 

    What is smart to do during the bear market period?

    When the bear market starts, it is smart to check your concrete investment strategy. If you are a young investor it is quite possible you are facing the bear market for the first time in your life. So, this is a great opportunity to check your risk appetite and how much you are able to manage it. You might obtain a valuable lesson.

    Even advanced investors do the same. They are reviewing their portfolios to be sure that the investments they are holding are suitable for their investing goals. It is very important to see your investments are in line with the risks you take. Some experts think that pilling off into safer investments is a bad decision. And maybe they are right. History shows that if you successfully handle your stocks during the bear market, it is more possible to profit a great when the market recovers. Yes, this all about long-term investors because investing isn’t about a moment in time, it is a process over time.

    What is the best strategy when the bear market starts?

    No one likes this. This enemy is dangerous so don’t try to fight back with it. The most important is to stay calm. Okay, you may play dead as you should do when you meet the bear in the woods. Just lay down and pretend you are dead. This was a joke but it works when the bear market starts and everything seem so uncertain.
    So, don’t be frightened. Fear is a bad partner now.

    Do you know the old saying on Wall Street? “The Dow climbs a wall of worry.” What does it mean? This means the markets will continue to rise despite anything. Nothing can stop that. No matter if we have an economic crisis, terrorism, or other misfortunes. Just keep your emotions under control and far away from investment decisions. Look, today’s catastrophe will be just an unpleasant flash one day. Nothing more. Well, it can last a few years but still.

    It is a normal condition

    The other important thing. It is normal to have bad years in the stock market. They are coming in the cycles and it isn’t unusual. For long-term investors, this is particularly a favorable situation. They can buy stocks at discount. 

    Speaking about this bear period, it might be smart investing in, for example, NFLX (Netflix) can be a good choice. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, and pandemic people have to stay at their homes and what are they going to do?  Watching TV, of course. That will bring a higher income with more subscribers, consequently, the dividends could be higher and the stock price will rise. But don’t buy Uber’s stock, for instance. You might wonder why. It is quite simple to explain. As more people will stay at home, less income will be for Uber and prices can drop. (Thank you Guy, for these examples.)

    Maybe the stocks of the companies that are involved in vaccine development or anything related to this unfortunate situation are not bad decisions. Pharmaceutical, detergent, soaps, antiseptic, hygienic supplies producers, virus testing, and other biotech companies. Think about this.

    Diversification can help also

    The point is to have a well-diversified portfolio. If you don’t have yet, it is time to add bonds, cash, stocks. The percentage of each will depend on your risk tolerance, goals or are you an investor with a long time horizon or not. A proper allocation strategy will save you from potential negative forces. 

    Further, invest only the amount you can allow to lose, that will not hurt your budget or the whole capital. For example, don’t take short-term loans and buy stock with that money if you don’t plan to hold them for a long time, e.g. five years or longer.
    Keep in mind, when the bear market starts, even trivial corrections, can be remarkably harmful.

    But as we said, when the bear market starts that may provide great opportunities if you know where to look for. We pointed to just a few examples above. Maybe you should follow what Warren Buffett did. So, buy the value stocks since their prices are going down.

    Bottom line

    What to do when a bear market starts?

    We can’t predict how long this bear market will last. If you’re considering selling off a group of stocks to lower your losses, just don’t do that. By doing so you’ll end up locked in losses. How can that situation help you? But if you have cash available for investing, this bear market period is a great time to do so. Remember, just don’t invest money you may need in the next five years or more.

    Also, don’t get scared as some investors are when a bear market starts. The stock market will recover from this as always it did during history. If you buy stocks now and your plan is to hold for a long time, you will have good chances to end up in profit.

    Maybe it is best to use our preferred trading platform virtual trading system and check the two formula pattern.

  • The 60/40 Portfolio is Dead – How to Replace It

    The 60/40 Portfolio is Dead – How to Replace It

    The 60/40 Portfolio is Dead - How to Replace It
    Bonds and stocks have only interacted negatively in the past 20 years. Their average correlation throughout the previous 65 years was positive. When this correlation isn’t negative, the 60/40 portfolio is weak in protecting your investment.

    We all had believed, for a long time, that the ideal is a 60/40 portfolio, which consists of 60%  in equities and 40% in bonds. That excellent combination provided greater exposure to stock returns. At the same time, this mix gave a good possibility of diversification and lower risk of fixed-income investments.

    But the world is turning around and markets are changing too. 

    Experts recently noticed that this 60/40 portfolio isn’t good enough. Portfolio strategists claim that the role of bonds in our portfolios should be examined. They argue we need to allocate a bigger part toward equities.

    Strategists report

    Bank of America Securities (a.k.a. Merrill Lynch) published research last year named “The End of 60/40”. The strategists Jared Woodard and Derek Harris wrote:  

    “The relationship between asset classes has changed so much that many investors now buy equities not for future growth but for current income, and buy bonds to participate in price rallies.” 

    That note by Merrill Lynch caused great turbulence among investors. The point is that your conventional sense of investing 60% of your portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds is no longer so smart.
    Merrill Lynch strategists explained that there are grounds as to why the 60/40 portfolio will not outperform portfolios with more stocks versus bonds in it. Therefore, investors have to allocate a bigger percentage of equities to their portfolios instead of bonds.
    This is the opposite scale compared to what investors used for many years. They were investing in equities for price rallies and buying bonds for current income.

    How did the 60/40 portfolio die?

    For the last 20 years, the golden rule was a portfolio of 60% stock and a 40% bond. Everything was good with that: investors had the bonds in portfolios, a 60/40 portfolio provided them the upside of equities, their investments were protected from downturns.  But they gave evidence to investors as to why this ratio should be changed and why they have to add more equities than bonds. 

    Here are some. Data is for the markets globally. During the last year, $339 billion were in inflows to bond funds but almost $208 billion were in outflows from equity funds.  So, we now have a tricky situation. Bond yields had fallen. The consequence is that we have about 1.100 global stocks that pay dividends higher than the average yield of global government bonds.

    The global economy slows

    We must have in mind that the global economy lags due to the aging society and there were rallies in bonds almost all over the world. It was like a bubble. Hence, the investors who manage a traditional 60/40 portfolio are in a situation that threatens to hinder returns.

    “The challenge for investors today is that both of those benefits from bonds, diversification and risk reduction, seem to be weakening, and this is happening at a time when positioning in many fixed-income sectors is incredibly crowded, making bonds more vulnerable to sharp, sudden selloffs when active managers rebalance,” said strategists from Merrill Lynch.

    The 60/40 portfolio canceled

    The popular rule of thumb: investment portfolios 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, is smashed. The finance industry did it. Moreover, financial advisors urging investors to hold riskier options since, as they claimed,  bonds no longer offer diversification. Hence, bonds will be more volatile over the long run. Further, the 60/40 portfolio has sense in the market conditions when stocks and bonds are negatively correlated. The stock price falls – bonds returns rise both serving as a great hedge, bonds against falling stock prices, and stocks as a hedge against inflation. According to strategists, no more.

    This will completely change the portfolio management.

    The benefits from bonds, diversification and risk limitation, seem to be missing. The bonds are more vulnerable to unexpected selloffs. The mentioned rule of thumb was accurate for 20 years but not for the past 65. Also, it is noticed that this period of negative correlation between bonds and stocks is coming to an end.

    Also, Morgan Stanley warns that returns on a portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds could drop by half in comparison to the last 20 years. Earlier, the analysts and strategists from Guggenheim Investments, The Leuthold Group, Yale University, also prognosticate distinctly lower returns.

    How to replace the 60/40 portfolio?

    The 60-40 portfolio is dead and it is a reality.

    Be prepared, you have to replace it. Some experts suggest keeping 60% in stocks but to hold a position shorter, as a better approach.

    But you have to hedge your portfolio. Experts suggest single-inverse ETFs and options for that purpose. 

    The others think the best way is to replace the 60/40 portfolio with some hedged equity portfolio. This actually means you should have more than 60% in stocks since the stock market is more liquid in comparison to the bond market. For this to implement, it is necessary to have tools. Also, the knowledge on how to use them. From our point of view, it seems that time to forget the 60/40 portfolio is here. All we have to do is to change the mindset and stop thinking about the mix of stocks and bonds. Instead, it looks like it is time to think about changing the net equity exposure.

    Maybe it is the right time to hold more cash, which can be a tactical defense. For example, cash can be a part of your 60% holdings when you are not fully invested in stocks. Or you can hold cash in the percentage that previously was in bonds. Also, you can combine it. You MUST build a hedged portfolio to avoid the 60/40 portfolio hurricane that is likely coming.
    For example, build a portfolio of, let’s say 75% stocks and 25% your hedge combination. This range can be tighter also. 

    Honestly, it is so hard nowadays to fit the excellence of the 60/40 portfolio.

    Bottom line

    The 60/40 portfolio was really good but it had a wild side too. The stock portion was down over 25 years of its 91-year existence. Over those 25 years, the average loss was above 13%. But there were bonds with a gain of above 5%, which reduced some of the losses. This portfolio was stable and reliable and you could use it for a long-time. 

    The other problem with the disappearance of the 60/40 portfolio is diversification. Is it dead too?

    Peter L. Bernstein said, “Diversification is the only rational deployment of our ignorance.” Investors have to figure out different access if stocks and bonds no longer balance one another. This great portfolio will miss everyone. Maybe, one day, we will meet again. But some conditions have to be fulfilled. The interest rates should be 6% again,  the stock market valuations shouldn’t go over 15x the previous 10 years’ worth of average earnings. That is hard to achieve now.
    R.I.P. the 60/40 portfolio.

  • Asset Allocation: A Method To Use

    Asset Allocation: A Method To Use

    Asset Allocation: A Method For 2020
    Before you start with asset allocation you have to choose what kind of investor you want to be. How do you see yourselves, like conservative, moderate or even aggressive investors?

    For any investor, filling the investment portfolio with a proper mix of stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, and other investments is critical to financial well-being. This mix is known as “asset allocation.”  The tricky part is that you cannot find a unique one that could suit all. Every investor must find own based on risk tolerance, timeline, and financial goals.

    But even if you already defined what assets you want in your portfolio, it is still easy to get lost. Well, you want to optimize your portfolios, but you are gathering news every minute. And you are changing your decisions based on them. So, the consequence is that is more likely you have some “confused” portfolio, an assemblage of everything instead of a well-diversified portfolio.

    Your portfolio has to be built with the goal of delivering income.

    The asset management landscape is changing

    First of all, In 2020 we can expect a huge rise in assets. It is predictable that economies in, let’s say, Asia, Middle East or Africa will grow faster than in areas with developed economies. 

    Extension in assets will be driven by several trends. One of them is the increase of wealthy individuals in those areas. So, we can expect the asset management landscape in 2020 will be changed. What investors have to do? Investors have to adjust their portfolios to new circumstances. 

    The investors should consider what caused an unusual change of growth and returns last year. Will the same conditions continue into this year? Will global economic growth returning to the trend? What about trade tensions? Is it over? All of this must influence investors’ decisions when building the investment portfolio and asset allocation.

    The effect of asset allocation

    The purpose of diversification is to avoid extremes. Asset allocation has to provide investors to score high returns, reduce volatility, protect them to have significantly lost capital. 

    You can accomplish this by asset allocation. All you have to do is to divide your investments into different classes of assets. Spread it into stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash. They will act separately from each other and your investment will be protected. Of course, you can spread your investment into cryptocurrencies, gold, commodities, or something else. Asset classes can be further divided into several sub-sectors.

    Asset allocation is extremely important. Some studies reveal that asset allocation has a tremendous contribution to a portfolio’s overall returns. Even bigger than individual stock pick. Economists Paul Kaplan and Roger Ibbotson wrote that more than 90% of a portfolio’s long-term returns were generated by asset allocation. So,  asset allocation has an important role in long-term returns.

    How to start?

    The first important step is to determine the target return. The issue is simply – by how much your portfolio has to grow to match your financial goals. But think about another issue too – what is your risk tolerance. How much risk are you able to take to gain a higher return?

    You have to do all of this before choosing the investment strategy. If you are a buy-and-hold type you’ll be able to allow a higher level of risk. You will have periods with lower returns but they will be substituted with periods of higher-than-expected returns. So, it’s easy when you are an investor with a long horizon. But if you are not, if your time horizon is shorter, you’ll favor a lower risk portfolio.

    Conservative Investing

    Conservative investors tend to hold bonds. Their portfolios consist of 60%-80% in bonds of different maturity dates, different issuers. Well, bonds are not without risk, to be honest. Over the past few years, interest rates are rising and it causes bond prices to fall. The bond market can crash as well as the stock market. Do you remember 1979/1980? By some calculations, investors had losses more than $400 billion in total. 

    For example, baby boomers. They are inclining to conservative asset allocation. Their portfolios consist of over 70% in bonds. They control about 65% of all bond assets, by the way.

    Modern asset allocation

    There is something named modern portfolio theory and consequently, modern methods of asset allocation. This means a huge range of asset classes and sub-asset classes into portfolios.

    At its core, modern portfolio theory is all about diversifying your asset allocation. 

    Modern portfolio theory is assumed to help reduce return risk by diversifying into many assets. But the first assumption of this theory is that asset classes are not in correlation. The point is to look at your investment as component parts of a whole. To be more clear, if one asset drops, the other will jump. It is just like a permanent zig-zag. Each investment is a moving gear. According to this theory, investors should balance a potential risk and returns but in the manner on how they might influence the risk and returns of the overall portfolio.

    Start investing

    Yes, you can do that, you can turn plans into dollars. 

    Just create portfolios to maximize the anticipated return based on an acceptable level of risk.

    Don’t time the market. You have to look at your investment in the long term since the time in the market is very important. Do not let violent fluctuations or volatility disturb you. You are investing with your goal in mind.

    Yes, you are more satisfied with less risk and nervous with grown risk. Moreover, you prefer the portfolio with the least risk, but one with the highest return possible and with the lowest risk.

    Modern portfolio theory asserts that the risk for individual stock returns has two components: systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is the market risk and you cannot avoid it. For example, recessions, interest rates, wars are that kind of risk. The unsystematic risk is specific to individual stocks. Management changes, lessening the company’s operations, and similar, are unsystematic risks. You can lower this type of risk if you have a well-diversified portfolio and good asset allocation. 

    Proper portfolio building is difficult. It isn’t easy. 

    Asset allocation is portfolio diversification

    The goal of asset allocation is to maximize the returns of a portfolio and reduce the risks.

    Stocks will give you strong returns over a long time but they are volatile and inclined to periods ups and downs. But the combination of national and foreign stocks is healthy because sometimes one country is overvalued while another country is undervalued. 

    There are two main approaches to asset allocation.
    Strategic Asset Allocation
    Tactical Asset Allocation

    Strategic asset allocation indicates holding a passive diversified portfolio. Meaning, you will not change your asset allocations based on market conditions. You will hold, add money and re-balance.

    If you choose this strategy, you have to build a diversified portfolio of index funds or ETFs. From time to time you’ll re balance it. For example, when one asset class is increasing and another is decreasing in price. All you have to do in order to maintain the same weighting is to sell the increasing one and buy the underperformed assets.

    Tactical asset allocation is complex and relates to almost permanent adjusting your weightings to different asset classes. You have to recognize where good risk/reward ratios are in the market. 

    The benefit is that you can really reduce volatility and increase returns. Though it’s more tending to individual failure, and if you do it badly you will decrease your returns.

    Bottom line

    Everyone would ask what’s the best asset allocation for a certain age? Here is one simple way to calculate it. 

    Subtract your age from 100 –  that’s the percentage you should keep in stocks. For example, if you’re 40, you should hold 60% of your portfolio in stocks. If you’re 80, you should hold 40% of your portfolio in stocks.

    But some advisors would recommend you to subtract your age from 110 or even 120 since people are living longer and longer. 

    When you choose what kind of investor you want to be whether conservative, moderate or even aggressive, it is time to focus on the asset allocation method. Spread it into allocations over particular investment categories: large, mid, small, and foreign stocks. 

    Balanced asset allocation in your portfolio is the right way to become a successful investor.

  • Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio

    Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio

    Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio
    When stock prices drop, bond prices increase. A portfolio that holds stocks and bonds plays better than the one that holds only stocks.

    Diversification means to spread the risk across different types of investments. The main purpose of diversification is to enhance your chances of investment success. In other words, you are betting on every one.

    Diversification is very important in investing because markets can be volatile and extremely unpredictable. If you diversify your portfolio, you will reduce the chance to lose more than you are prepared to.

    And that is exactly what you would like in investing: to spread your capital among different assets. So you’re not relying on a single asset for all of your returns. The key advantage of diversification is that it provides you to minimize the risk of losing the capital invested.

    What is diversification?

    Diversification means building a portfolio of your investments in a way that the majority of the assets will have a different reaction to the same market performance. For example, when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds. In opposite circumstances, bonds could play better than stocks. Hence, if you hold both stocks and bonds, you will reduce the risks in your portfolio from market swings. 

    Let’s make this more clear. What do you have in your pantry? Only beans? Of course not! When you went to the grocery you bought everything you need for the week or month ahead. The same should be with your investment portfolio. It should consist of various assets. But not too many. Too many assets mean you will not be able to follow their performances. If you are fresh in the stock market, maybe a two-fund portfolio is a good choice for you. More about this you can read HERE. 

    Think of these various types of groceries as the different areas, techniques, and areas available to you as an investor. If you have a variety of assets, you’ll be better protected. In the situation when one of your assets is hit by the risk you will still have the others that can give you a profit.

    Reasons for diversification

    Even the explanation is so simple you can still find so many investors that play on one card. You may ask how some really smart guys could avoid diversification and put all eggs in one basket? We couldn’t find the proper answer because the benefits are so obvious.

    By diversification, investors lower the overall risk. It is logical how this works. When you spread your investments in various classes (diversifying them) you have more chances to avoid the negative influence in your portfolio. For example, let’s say you invested in stocks only and you hold a stock of just one company. Yes, we know you like it, it is a good company, famous, well-run. But if suddenly something unpleasant hit it and the stock price drops, let’s say, for 30%, how that occasion will influence your overall portfolio? You will lose 30% of your portfolio.  But let’s consider the other situation. Let’s say that stock makes up a modest part of 5% in your portfolio. So, how much of your overall portfolio you will lose now? Can you see where is the benefit of diversification? It lowers the risk. Even during economic downturns, you will still have good players in your portfolio. Hence, if you have bonds and stocks added to your portfolio, it is more likely that even one of them will run well during particular circumstances. Bonds will play better when the economy is decreasing, but when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds.

    Diversification and investment strategy

    You can find various investment strategies but two are most popular: growth and value investing.

    Value investors tend to consider the strength of a company and its management. They would estimate if the company’s stock price is undervalued based on its true worth. 

    On the other side, growth investors would estimate how fast the company is growing, could its new products stimulate future earnings, etc.
    By taking just one strategy you can miss out on the benefits of the other. But if you spread your investments on both of these strategies, it is pretty sure that you’ll be able to enjoy the benefits of each.

    Influence of “home country bias”

    Well, it is completely natural that investors are more attracted to their own state markets, the national industry. That’s how we come to the “home country bias”  in investing. Of course, it is a natural tendency. But it can be a problem too. “Home country bias” can limit your investments to the offer from domestic markets. But what is needed for profitable and successful investing is to step out of your comfort zone. Foreign markets can be profitable also. What you have to do as an investor is to add some international fund or company to your portfolio. It is good protection and well-done diversification. Diversification across international markets will protect your investments if the domestic economy downturns (no one wants that, of course) or during the recession in your country. Several years ago we heard one of the investors saying it isn’t a patriotic gesture. Well, we have to say, investing isn’t an act of patriotism. It is all about profit.

    Produces more opportunities

    Eventually, diversification produces more opportunities if you make smart choices that deliver balance to your investment portfolio. 

    For example, you only invest in stocks. But suddenly some great opportunity occurs to invest in, for example, bonds. What will you do? Refuse to invest in bonds because you are not comfortable with them and risk to miss potential profit? We don’t think it is a smart idea. Never miss the opportunity to earn more, that isn’t in the nature of investing. Admit, you will never miss this opportunity to invest in bonds if you have a diversified portfolio. So, diversification gives you more opportunities to invest.

    Protect and improve your finances

    It is important to understand all the benefits of diversification. It isn’t hard to do. Actually, it is very simple. You have to read more, learn and be patient. If you diversify your investment portfolio you will have a chance to build stable finances over time.

    How to diversify your portfolio

    Firstly, never be too much invested. You will not be the winner if you own hundreds of assets. Okay, let’s say this way. Your portfolio is your team. And, as in every team, each part plays its role. No coach will put all players in one position. It’s stupid. Plus, how such a team will win anything? Of course, zero chances! 

    The point of diversifying is to hold investments that able to work separated tasks on your team. 

    Every single part of your portfolio should have a different role. For example, if you prefer stocks, diversify your portfolio to S&P 500 (that would provide you exposure to large-caps) and add some small-caps.

    If you have a bond portfolio diversify it across short and long bonds, or higher-quality bonds, etc. That will reduce the risks. Or just add alternative investments in your portfolio. For example, private equity, hedge funds, real property, venture capital, commodities, etc.

    Bottom line

    How will you know you’re diversified? A well-diversified investment portfolio will never move in the same trend and at the same time. You must have one thing on your mind: you are the manager of your portfolio. Also, it is almost impossible for all investments to grow all the time. It is 100% sure that some of your positions will be lost, will lose you money. When that happens you will need the other holdings to balance that fall.

    Diversification guards you against producing an undesired risk to your capital. Anyway, it is too risky to put all your money into one single investment. The key to diversification is to spread your money across asset classes and to allocate within classes. That is a smart approach.

  • What is Diversified Investment

    What is Diversified Investment

    2 min read

    What is Diversified Investment

    Nothing more represents the term diversified investment than proverb “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Instead, invest in many baskets and hold a substantially diversified portfolio based on your long-term asset allocation strategy.

    A diversified investment is exactly that.

    A diversified investment represents a portfolio of various assets that earn the highest return for the smallest risk. This kind of portfolio has a mixture of stocks, fixed income, and commodities. These assets react differently to the same economic occasions and because of that, diversification works. With diversified funds, you can access financial markets while spreading your investments across several asset classes and geographic regions. In this way, you reduce the impact of market fluctuations while maintaining an attractive potential performance.

    In a diversified portfolio, the assets don’t match each other. When one rises, the other falls. It drops down overall risk because some asset classes will benefit, no matter what the economy does. They equalize any losses of the other assets. There is also less risk because it’s difficult the entire portfolio would be destroyed by any single event. A diversified portfolio is the best protection against a financial crisis.

    How does Diversification work?

    Stocks do well when the economy grows. Investors want the highest returns, so they bid up to the price of stocks. They are willing to accept a greater risk because they are optimistic about the future.

    Bonds do well when the economy slows.

    Investors are more interested in protecting their holdings. They are willing to accept lower returns for that reduction of risk.

    What is Diversified Investment 1
    The prices of commodities vary with supply and demand. Commodities include wheat, oil, and gold. For example, wheat prices would rise if there is a drought that limits supply. Oil prices would fall if there is additional supply. As a result, commodities don’t follow the phases of the business cycle as closely as stocks and bonds.

    Diversification typically has low correlations to, or do not move in lockstep with, more traditional asset classes. As such, their inclusion in an investment portfolio tends to result in lower overall volatility.  Because they have a wider universe in which to invest (public and private) and do not have some of the same investment constraints (can short and hedge), alternative investments have the potential for higher long-term performance than traditional investments.

    Investing in diversified funds can, therefore, be an effective tool to:

    • Seek growth in your savings with a medium-term outlook and moderate risk
    • Benefit from exposure to several markets (equity, bonds) that is adjusted to match current conditions in order to both take advantage of market rallies and cushion against the impact of declines
    • Manage your portfolio simply with access to turnkey management: the manager adjusts the make-up of your portfolio over time.

    Where can you execute the diversified portfolio?

    A diversified portfolio should contain securities from the following six asset classes.

    Stocks. Different sized companies should be included. Company size is measured by its market capitalization. Therefore, include small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap in any portfolio.

    Fixed income. The safest are savings bonds. These are guaranteed by the government. Municipal bonds are also very safe. You can also buy short-term bond funds and money market funds that invest in these safe securities. Corporate bonds provide a higher return with greater risk. The highest returns and risk come with junk bonds.

    Foreign stocks. These include companies from both developed and emerging markets. You can achieve greater diversification if you invest overseas. International investments can generate a higher return because emerging markets countries are growing faster. But they are riskier investments because these countries have fewer central bank safeguards in place, can be susceptible to political changes, and are less transparent.

    Foreign fixed income. These include both corporate and government issues. They provide protection from a currency decline. They are safer than foreign stocks.

    Commodities. This includes natural resources such as gold, oil, and real estate. Gold should be a part of any diversified investment because it’s the best hedge against a stock market crash. Research shows that gold prices rise dramatically for 15 days after the crash. This is why people invest in gold. Gold can be a good defense against inflation. It is also not correlated to assets such as stocks and bonds.

    Maybe you should include the equity in your home in your diversification strategy.

    If your equity goes up, you can sell other real estate investments in your portfolio. You might also consider to sell your home, take some profits, and move into a smaller house.
    What is Diversified Investment 2
    Most investment advisors don’t count the equity in your home as a real estate investment. They assume you will live there to the end of the time. They saw it as a consumable product, so that encouraged many homeowners to loan against the equity in their homes to buy consumable goods. When housing prices declined, they owed more than the house was worth. Many people walked away from their homes while others declared bankruptcy.

    Expected return

    Investors often focus too much on the expected return of their portfolio. While the expected return is important, you must also consider the amount of risk that you need to assume in order to achieve that expected return – the higher the expected return, the more risk you must take on to achieve it. When planning your investment strategy, it is important to be truthful with yourself in evaluating how much risk you can manage, and how long you are able to stay on the course through the ups and downs of the market rhythm. With other words, you should determine how much short-term volatility you are willing to accept.

    A little bit of history.

    An academic named Harry Markowitz introduced the research on what he called modern portfolio theory that people were able to understand diversification in an objective, mathematical sense. This research was so innovative and Markowitz earned a trip to Sweden to pick up a Nobel Prize.

    The bottom line

    In Shakespeare’s play, “The Merchant of Venice,” written more than 400 years ago, the character Antonio demonstrates his understanding of the concept. He says: “I thank my fortune for it – my ventures are not in one bottom trusted, nor to one place, nor is my whole estate upon the fortune of this present year.” That is a diversified investment.

    Risk Disclosure (read carefully!)

Traders-Paradise