Tag: COVID-19

  • How Long Will The Bear Market Last?

    How Long Will The Bear Market Last?

    How Long Will The Bear Market Last?
    Stock markets over the world experienced great losses from the beginning of this year due to a massive sell-off caused by the COVID-19. 

    How long will the bear market last? We believe not forever. In fact, the bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Especially when they are driven by some event. Coronavirus outbreak is such an event. like this one is. But if we take a look at historical data we may conclude that the question of how long will the bear market last, pretty naive. How is that? Well, this kind of bear market recovers very fast.

    How can we be so sure?

    Let us explain. If we want to put different types of a bear market into categories, we will see we can put them into 3 key categories based on the type of drivers. 

    The first type of bear market is caused by the business cycle. That is when growth leads to inflation, interest rates increase too fast, the yield curve inverts, demand decreases, loan activity decreases, etc. They are so-called cyclical bear markets.

    The second type is caused by market bubbles, much more leverage, turbulences, and disruptions on the credit markets. In other words, this structural type of bear market occurs when we have structural asymmetries in the market or economy. So, we are pointing to another type of bear market, the so-called structural bear market. We already saw it in the 2008-2009 market downturn.

    But also, we can recognize a bear market driven by some event which is this one, caused by a coronavirus outbreak and global pandemic. Of course, this kind of bear market can be triggered by some crises, wars, political instabilities, etc.

    How long will the bear market last?

    This month can be an important test for stock-market investors. Everyone is looking for hints that the worst of this stock market massacre is ended. But the coronavirus outbreak moves on and demands at least short-term economic distress. In the next several weeks we will be faced with more and more bad news as a pandemic is spreading. That may cause further sellings. Bad news has such an influence on the stock market. Also, a surge of business failures can occur. 

    The experts sound pretty sure that the stock market’s bounceback last week is a good sign even though all markets are volatile. The stock market was dropping with great speed into the bear market. But yet, there is a hope that March lows for main indexes may be kept from further declines. That is just our opinion, based on the reaction of central banks. 

    Well, this bear market isn’t easy for any investor. Even the most optimistic investors claim that further decline is possible before the stocks find the bottom. That is true especially if we know that sharp rebounds are possible before retesting new lows. But as we said, there is a logical chance that recent lows can be the last we saw and rebounds can be better than in former significant selloffs.

    Predictions for the stock market

    Robert J. Shiller, a Nobel laureate is exactly certain about the stock market in the long run. His concerns are about how long will the bear market last, where the stock market is heading.

    He wrote for The New York Times:

    “It is too simple to assume that with its steep decline, the market has already discounted epidemiologists’ forecasts for COVID-19. By this logic, the stock market would fall further only if the virus turns out to be worse than forecast.”

    Yes, but we are dealing with an entirely unknown situation. We never have had before such a massive lockdown of everything companies, whole industries, millions of people, the numerous countries. This is a totally unique event.

    But Robert J. Shiller added in his column:

    “People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may. If you are 60, for example, you should hold 40 percent stocks, under this rule.”

    And also admitted that “this advice isn’t grounded in any scientific truth about financial markets.”

    Well, this advice isn’t bad, it is good advice. It isn’t against common sense. While people are doing something, taking action they may feel better. That is from a psychological point of view. Also, it is a quite reasonable decision to risk less in such a market downturn but yet inspires you to take action. 

    Shiller advises further “buying just enough to restore the stock balance after market declines.”

    Bear markets rule a short time

    Maybe this is the answer to the question of how long will the bear market last. Bear markets rule for a short time. What we can expect is the market data will be weak in the weeks ahead. The problem is what are we expecting.

    Stocks in March entered a bear market with record speed. After March 23 they were bouncing sharply. But DJIA has the biggest first-quarter decline of -1.68% on record with a 23.2% fall. The S&P 500 Index had a decline of -1.51% on a 20% first-quarter fall this year. It is the biggest since 2008. After March 23 both indexes had a rebound and for example, DJIA had its biggest three-day gain, which had been seen last time in 1931.

    Let’s see how long this bear could market last?

    As we said we can recognize three main types of bear markets: caused by the business cycle, caused by some event (like this one) and a structural bear market.

    The most severe is the structural bear market because it is the result of problems in the financial system and capital markets.

    A cyclical bear market is bad also but tends to fix itself over a short time and sufficient policy answers.

    And last but not the least, the bear market caused by some event. According to historical data, this kind of bear market was shorter, less critical on the downside. Such a market took less time to recover. It is quite logical. Before the market was hit with a drastic event such as a coronavirus outbreak, the markets all over the world were in good condition. And you see, that’s why we think that it does not take as long for the economy to recover once the shock of this event disappears. It’s true that so many people lost jobs in the early stage of the pandemic, the companies are faced with shutdowns and limitations. But when this kind of problem disappears, everything can return in normal pretty quickly.

    Bottom line

    How long will the bear market last? There is no way to predict that, honestly. Who can predict when the market will bottom? From what we know, the bear market will end even before bad news stops coming up to us. For investors, the main point is to be ready for that first day of recovery, they have to adjust their positions for that to join the rebound when it happens. We believe it can happen sooner than many investors expect or predict.

    In the meantime, we recommend investors wait for it calmly. Stay focused on long-term investments and don’t let your emotions take control of your decisions. Use this period to learn something new and expend your horizons.

  • Coronavirus Is Crashing The Global Markets

    Coronavirus Is Crashing The Global Markets

    Coronavirus Is Crashing The Global Markets
    COVID-19 is crashing the global markets but history has shown that the markets bounce back again and again over time.

    Coronavirus is crashing the global markets but investors are returning to China. It looks like the appetite for Chinese shares is rising again. For example, Pinebridge Investments from New York. According to CNBC this firm “had total assets under management of $101.3 billion as of the end of last year, including $25.5 billion in stocks and $64.3 billion in fixed income.”

    Despite the fact that the novel coronavirus is crashing the global markets fund managers start buying Chinese assets again. And all Asian markets rise moderately.

    Major markets in Asia were up nearly 1% yesterday (Tuesday, March, 30) and Hong Kong and South Korean shares rose about 1.5%.  

    Fund managers have recently boosted China A-shares. It was “a small single-digit” starting position and now is “a low double-digit weighting.”  So we can conclude the Far East, led by China, is already showing recovery.

    China President Xi Jinping presented strong growth signals. Goldman Sachs reported the Chinese policy is concentrating on demand. Also, the government’s concern is to sustain employment, financial markets, trade, and foreign capital. 

    Russian financial market

    On the other hand, the Russian economy has been shaken by the coronavirus pandemic. The main impact on the Russian economy came from the breakdown of the production pact between Russia and Saudi Arabia. This was a shock for traders all over the world. The consequence was intense volatility on the Russian stock markets which dropped around 20%. The value of the ruble also is down around 20% from the beginning of this year.

    The price of oil futures is rising 

    Coronavirus is crashing the global markets but recently the analysts showed some optimism toward financial markets. 

    Oil futures surged on Tuesday after dropping to their lowest levels since 2002. Maybe the oil prices allow the best check of how investors anticipate the economy to function. The rising price of oil futures is probably a weak sign because on the other side we have gold as a standard safe-haven investment but the price of gold dropped significantly in trading on March 30. 

    When coronavirus is crashing the global markets it looks like there is no safe place to put money. Another safe place was longer-term U.S. Treasury bonds, also known as T- bills, but it dropped also.

    Investors’ worries have not gone away yet. The stock market is still volatile. The VIX index is still at historically high levels. It fell a bit two days ago but this level still shows an extreme stock market volatility.

    Coronavirus is crashing the global markets – what investors should do?

    Here is what investors should do while the coronavirus is crashing the global markets. First of all, every single investor must understand the value of the overall portfolios is lower. But it is a paper loss, why would you transfer it in true loss? That is exactly what you would do in case you try to sell. So, sit back and do nothing. Don’t check your portfolio every single day. Put away your desktop or laptop computer and turn off notifications on your phone. The time for your reaction has passed anyway. You can’t do anything now. Just try to stay calm and avoid stress. As a serious investor, you should be prepared for market volatility. Even for this extreme one, that we have now. 

    Market volatility is a good time to start investing

    If you can’t sit in peace, start small and not frequently. For example, buy a small chunk of stock per week. And repeat it until you buy what you want. Diversify your investments across major asset classes, don’t buy from the single one. 

    This period when the coronavirus is crashing the global markets is a good time to enter the market. The stock prices are low, you don’t need too much money to buy them and you can start with small parts buying from time to time. This is a great time to estimate your personal risk tolerance. But you have to follow some rules.

    The rules to follow when the markets are down

    As we pointed before, invest gradually. This means you have to invest a predetermined amount into the same asset over a long time. In this way, you’ll be able to buy more chunks at lower prices (we suppose you want to buy stocks when the price is low, that’s the rule of investing – buy low, sell high, right?) Thus this method will allow you to buy less when the price is high. So, even if you are a total novice in the stock market by doing this you’ll implement one of the most efficient strategies – a dollar-cost averaging. 

    When you estimate where to invest try to find and pick the stock for long-term investment. That’s the reason you shouldn’t start investing if you don’t have saved and put aside cash equal to at least three months’ salary. You will need that money for rainy days. You can invest the rest of your money. 

    Compound interest and diversification

    Keep in mind the advantage of compound interest. That’s when you earn interest on the interest you receive, but you must have an investing plan and stick to it. And the mother of all investments, diversify.

    Diversification will give you more exposure to a wide range of stocks.

    Remember, the current market drop can give you a very good opportunity for young and new investors who can play for a long time. All researches highlighted the young people who invested systematically during market corrections and during the market downturns done better than the others who withdrew. 

    The existing investors should hold their investments tight. Remember, this period when coronavirus is crashing the global markets is just a stress test. Nothing more. Don’t let your emotions lead you, don’t sell your shares in a panic. Sell only if you have some urgent need for cash.

    It’s impossible to pick the market bottom. Resist those thoughts. If you want to trade the stocks you can learn more in the “Two Fold Formula” book. Also, you can check it with our preferred trading platform.

    Bottom line

    Coronavirus is crashing the global markets, that’s the reaction of the market to the spreading of a pandemic. From some point of view, it was expected. A virus outbreak can cause many problems. From day-to-day individual activity to global productivity. This new COVID-19 virus changes the economic outputs since it is progressing in almost every part of the globe. 

    The investors are reasonably worried. The broad disruption to global trade could have a large influence on global growth. Along with these fears in the financial markets, the fears for individual safety is due to the threat of the virus itself. This level of fear may cause even the most rational investors to play by emotions. As negative news appeared the investors with lower risk tolerance started to sell in panic. And as it was expected, they caused a market correction. Just keep in mind, the market corrections are normal even in a bull market. The market needs to neutralize bad behavior. For example, FOMO. But the market will move forward despite anything. The markets will bounce back again. Also, it will be more sustainable. It just needs some time to catch a breath.

  • Markets Are Down – Should We Invest Further

    Markets Are Down – Should We Invest Further

    Markets Are Down
    The spread of the coronavirus has disturbed investors. The fears of new outbreaks can push down global demand. The S&P 500 closed down 3% on Tuesday, the index is deeper in the red.

    Markets are down, an inverted yield curve is noticed, coronavirus is progressing and spreading all over the world. Everything tells us that we should be afraid. This inverted yield curve is proof of investors’ fears. They are starting to fear the worst and sell in panic. Almost all benchmark indexes are decreasing. While we have several things that can help- us to avoid infection by COVID-19, what can we do to protect our investments? 

    Stock markets suffered two big drops so far this week. Coronavirus outbreak made a great influence on the global stock markets. An economic downturn has increased quickly following China. It is the reality now in the US, Middle East, and Europe.

    The best sign of how this situation is difficult is visible among the investors who are looking for safe havens for their capital. But there are so many signs that worry us. The yields on U.S. government bonds are dropping to near-record lows and showing red flags. Further, returns are higher for short-term debt in comparison to the 10-years bonds meaning, yields continue inverted. Everything is opposite to the regular situation and some of the experts think that is the sign the recession is coming.

    But our intention is not to cry over this situation. We would like to discuss how to turn this market downturn to our benefit. Is it possible at all? We are receiving controversial information from our governments, experts have their interests also. That makes confusion among investors especially when it is so obvious that stock markets are down. As we said, let’s try to find the way out there. The mother of all questions is:

    Should we invest when the markets are down?

    In short, yes. Why shouldn’t we? We should invest in any case no matter if the stock markets are down, sideways, or they are up. The essence of investing is to reach settled financial goals. To do that we have to keep our eyes on our investments, to the stock prices, no matter what kind of market condition is. That’s a general duty while investing. Otherwise, everything will go apart.

    Let’s say you are going to shop and you notice that something you planned to buy is on discount. What will you do? Step away? Will you buy it or not? Of course, you will. When it comes to stocks, why would your decision be different? As far as we remember, investors’ mantra is “buy low, sell high”, right? Actually, when everyone is selling, the smart decision is to buy. That is according to Warren Buffett. But where is the catch? Don’t buy if you didn’t plan that or just because you saw someone is doing so. Buy only after you made a consistent plan of your investment. Buying cheap stocks just because they are on sale can be the wrong move.

    Buy, buy, buy

    We don’t want to diminish the influence of the coronavirus outbreak. It is a horrible situation, a possible dead-ending disease, very dangerous. But what we know is the financial markets have been almost immune to the influences of earlier epidemics. 

    Stock prices are affected by various outside factors and some of them have nothing to do with companies’ operations, that’s true. The prices will decline on the bad news such as the coronavirus outbreak or a downturn in the overall economy. But that has nothing to do with the company, to repeat. The circumstances like this one actually represent a great opportunity. For example, you were looking at some company for a long time and its stock was too pricey for you. Due to the markets down it becomes cheaper. Maybe you have enough capital to buy it since it is such a good market player. 

    We have a great reason to change our position and buy more stocks

    Why not? It is a good time to buy more at fire-sale prices. But what if you don’t have suitable cash to deploy? Think! Maybe you can find one or a few investments in your portfolio to sell and buy a new one.

    Always keep in mind, your investment decisions should be based on your financial goals, not managed by market movements. That’s why you should buy stocks when markets are down only if you wanted particular stock and it is suitable for your goals. Don’t rush with that because buying stocks just because they are cheaper at this very moment is also an emotional reaction as much as selling when the markets are down.

    What are we doing instead?

    Well, we are doing smart trading. We must have a plan, investing schedule and stick with it. That means we already planned some cash reserve and we are ready for a situation like this new market downturn is. So, we are able to look at this like a buying opportunity that comes.

    Buying stocks while everybody is selling isn’t a strategy without risk. There is always a chance that the market doesn’t go to the bottom. But if we buy when the markets are down, we have a chance to have larger gains when the market rebounds. More than the investors who didn’t buy.

    A few days of bad news are not a reason to sell in panic

    To be honest, drastic drops can be upsetting to look at. The markets trended upward for so long and suddenly we have this. But we have to consider this situation as a buying opportunity.
    The worst strategy when the markets are down is to sell your portfolio. Okay, maybe the worst of the worst is to take the short positions. The stock market knows how to punish investors who are too bearish.
    Rather, maintain a notable piece of your portfolio in stocks, even now when the stock markets are down. The point here is to be in position and take advantage when the markets turn forward. Of course, you would like to protect your portfolio against dangerous market forces as much as possible.

    So what and how to do it?

    Well, you have to reduce your stock exposure but you have to keep the main strengths. Keep the winners. You can sell the positions that are not performing well because they represent the weak part of your portfolio. So, during the market correction or situations like this one when the markets are down, those stocks or funds might get the most critical hit. Further, even when the markets are down you may have some positions that are extremely good but you assume that they will not play so well. Your actions should be – take a profit. Yes, why not? Just do it at market peaks to have profits.

    Further, consider the way you invest, maybe it’s time to change something. Maybe index-based ETFs are not the best choice, they work well during bull markets, but bear markets are less safe. 

    Don’t follow the prevailing sentiment and sell investments. Rather sell risky positions, for example, some with a high beta. Also, think about selling some with a history of volatility. Yes, we know there are some investors who sell their positions in the most steady companies to avoid losses. What we can say is that they are very nervous. Who else wants to sell everything and sit at the sideline? You know, the market will bounce back one day. But if you sell everything you hold now you will miss big gains when it happens. Sell risky investments only, as we said. Hold blue-chip companies!

    Bottom line

    The keyword for overcoming the market’s downturn is advance preparation. There is no better strategy. The nature of the stock market is to experience declines from time to time. Preparations mean having enough cash to provide ourselves more opportunities in investing. Think about this downturn as a normal cycle. As said, it is so normal for the stock market to go down after it reached its peak. Savvy investors made some other preparations while the market was at the peak. They already lowered their exposure on time.

    But it isn’t too late yet. At least once in life, every single investor has to deal with weak market conditions. So, we truly believe you are prepared for this one. Stay calm, lower your exposure to stocks, sell stocks that are not good players, buy more. But never try to stay at the market with knee-jerks reactions. Don’t sell in panic, that will ruin your investments, your capital, family and finally you. Stay stick with your investment goals and wait for the market to rebound. It is the only proper way to overcome the market’s downturns.