Category: Traders’ Secrets

Traders’ Secrets is something that everyone would like to know, right?
How is it possible that some traders are successful all the time while others fail to make a profit all the time?
That is exactly what Traders’ Secrets will show you.
Traders-Paradise’s team reveal all trading and investing secrets to you, our visitors.

What will you find here?

How to find, buy, trade stocks, currencies, cryptos. You’ll find here what are the best strategies you can use, all with full explanation and examples.
Traders-Paradise gives you, our readers, this unique chance to uncover and fully understand everything and anything about trading and investing. The material presented here is originated from the experience of many executed trades, many mistakes made by traders and investors but written on the way that teaches you how to avoid these mistakes.

Moreover, here you’ll find some rare techniques and strategies that are successful forever, for any market condition. Also, how to trade with a little money and gain consistent returns. By following these posts you’ll e able to trade with greater success. You’ll increase your profits and your wealth, of course.

The main secret of Traders’ Secrets is that there shouldn’t be any secret for traders and investors. Rise up your trade by reading these posts, articles, and analyses!

You’ll enjoy every word written here. Moreover, after all, your trading and investing knowledge will be more extensive and effective.

Traders’ Secrets will arm you with those skills, so you’ll never have a losing trade again.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) – All Calculation, Practices, and Mistakes

Volume Weighted Average Price is an indicator that takes into account both stock price and trade volume.

For all of the indicator followers, Volume Weighted Average Price is a very important indicator. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is quite simple to calculate. Traders are using Volume Weighted Average Price to check if the price at which they traded was good or maybe the price was not and they made a wrong trade. Also, intraday traders will use Volume Weighted Average Price as a kind of indicator. As a contrast from the moving average, VWAP provides traders to get price points of interest, to estimate relative strength, and recognize best entries and exits. They will buy when the price is above the VWAP.

What is the Volume Weighted Average price exactly?

Окаy, let’s say you have to compare two obviously good stocks. What you have to do? The answer is logical, you have to check its price trend and the trading volume. Checking the price is reasonable, but why would you check the volume?

Well, the volume is important because it shows how many takers the stock has. Who would like a stock with a few traders? No matter if you think the price is reasonable, you would like to know the volume. Therefore, the VWAP was designed to give traders an insight into the stock price and volume. These are very important info that provides every investor should make a decision whether to buy or not a particular stock.

The formula for calculating VWAP is

VWAP = (Cumulative (Price x Volume)) / (Cumulative Volume)

It will show you the average price that investors have paid for that stock during the trading day. So, you will know how other investors are positioned. Moreover, this measure is used by algos also. They use it to scale into positions. By using it, the algo can break up its position size into segments so as to reduce its impact on the market.

Well, the philosophy of how VWAP is used can lead to various types of trading systems.

VWAP calculation

It is done by charting software and reveals an overlay on the chart representing the calculations. This design is in the form of a line, similar to the moving average. How to calculate that line?

You have to determine your time frame, for example, 1 minute.

Find the typical price for all periods in the day. You can calculate the typical price when adding the high, low and close prices and that sum you have to divide by 3.

The formula is

(H+L+C)/3

H – high
L – low
C – close

It’s not finished yet. The number you got as a typical price now multiply by the volume for the chosen period.

TP x V

TP – typical price
V – volume

Now, you will need a cumulative TPV. You will attain this by constantly adding the most current TPV to the earlier values. The exception is the first period from obvious reasons, there was no prior value. This number is becoming larger as the day is coming to an end.

Calculate VWAP based on your data and use this formula:

cumulative TPV/cumulative volume

This will give you a volume-weighted average price for each period. Now, based on this data you can create the line that covers the price data on the chart.
It is better to use a spreadsheet to track the data in case you are doing this manually.

Time to buy according to VWAP

The best time to buy a stock is when the price goes above VWAP. It is a sign that buyers are in control and the majority of intraday positions are in profit. But if the stock price is below VWAP it means that traders have bad trades and losing money on them.

The Volume Weighted Average Price unlike other technical analysis tools, it is best adapted for intraday examination. It offers a good way to identify the underlying trend of an intraday. So, as you can see, when the stock price is above the VWAP, that means the trend is up. Contrary, when the stock price is below the VWAP, that means that the trend is down.

But remember, indicators are using past data to calculate the average. Every indicator starts to calculate at the open and stop to calculate at the close. And as you come closer to the end of the day, the indicator will have more lags. In intraday charts that use very short time frames, you have hundreds of periods in a single day.

Use Volume Weighted Average Price as trend confirmation

We have already said, VWAP provides traders info related to volume and price. But, it will help traders to confirm the appearance of trends that might be rising or going down over the day. For example, you see in the chart VWAP is rising despite the swings in the closing price. You can be sure that there are less sellers than buyers for that stock.

Thus, a rising VWAP indicates a bullish period, while a decreasing VWAP indicates a bearish period.

It can be a trade execution strategy

VWAP is helpful for institutional investors as they need to buy or sell a huge amount of shares but they want to avoid a spike in the volume. They don’t want to attract attention and influence the price.

For example, some institutional investors want to buy 10.000 shares of some companies. If such an investor sets the buy order of 10,000, the consequence will be a spike in the price in the moment of filling the order. So, when other investors recognize that big demand, they would also like to buy the same stock and at a higher price than the bid price of an institutional investor. Of course, traders would sell the stock back at a much higher price. That’s how the stock price rises in a particular case and dramatically increases the “ask” price of the stock. As we mentioned before, some software is able to divide these huge amounts of shares into smaller blocks and execute the trade and not let the closing prices go far from the VWAP. It is important to keep the closing price as much as possible near to the VWAP.

Bottom line

As we explained, VWAP is a lagging indicator. So, don’t try to use it for more than for one-day frame, because it will not show you the right trend. It is good for intraday trading. Also, when the stock or, in some cases, the overall market is bullish, you will not be able to find crossovers for the whole day. So, you will have poor data. By the way, VWAP isn’t able to give you much historical data.

The VWAP provides valuable information, more than the moving averages. Also, it isn’t a tool for a long term investor.

29th January 2020
Coffeehouse Portfolio The Lazy Portfolio

This is another in a series of lazy portfolios and one of the most popular. There is no single “coffeehouse portfolio” and an investor can adjust the basic version to own needs and investing goals.

This lazy portfolio, Coffeehouse portfolio, that financial advisor Bill Schultheis made famous in his book “The Coffeehouse Investor” is so simple.
The Coffeehouse portfolio is built of 7 funds. The basic version starts with the composition of 60/40 stock/bonds. The fixed income part is put into a bond fund (you have to choose). The 60% in stocks is divided equally between six index funds. That index funds are a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund, a small-cap value fund, a foreign fund, a REIT fund, and a large-cap fund.

“Investing should be dull,” said Nobel economist Paul Samuelson. Yes, some would say the same. But we have to be honest. This kind of portfolio maybe isn’t suitable for some Millennials experienced in investing. The Coffeehouse portfolio is too much dull. On the other hand, it is good. All you have to do is to set it up and live your lives.

And this discovery is amazing.

You can hear investors saying the same thing again and again: You need some simple but well-diversified portfolio. You don’t need more than several funds (4, 5, 9 whatever), but pay attention, as you are a novice, they have to be low-cost and able to create winners during both bear and bull markets.

That’s the point with lazy portfolios. There is no active trading, no market timing, and of course, no commissions. Moreover, they are simple. Well, someone may ask what happens with assets absent from such a portfolio. Forget it! You don’t care!

How to structure Coffeehouse portfolio

It is quite simple, as we said and here is one example:

10% Vanguard 500 Index
10% Vanguard Value Index
10% Vanguard Small-Cap Index
10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index
10% Vanguard REIT Index
10% Vanguard Total International Index
40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index

Or

10% Large-Cap Stocks
10% Small-Cap Stocks
10% Large Value Stocks
10% Small Value Stocks
10% REITs
10% Total International Stocks
40% Bonds

As you can see in this portfolio, it is massive on the REITs, is slight on international stocks, and misses diversity on the fixed income side.

Roll the dice

Basically it is a “slice and dice” portfolio. So we can say it isn’t a “total market” example of the portfolio. A total-market portfolio consists of 1/3 equal parts of a total bond market index, total stock market index, and total international stock market index. But this “slice and dice” portfolio seeks to benefit from the higher returns. There is a higher risk when investing in value stocks and small stocks. And, as you can see, this portfolio has a massive collection of both small, and value stocks.

The 60% piece of the Coffeehouse portfolio represents 6 different funds that cover a different part of the market. That is a really good part of this portfolio since it is adding to the diversity.

The rest of the 40% of the portfolio is a total bond fund that includes the whole of the bond market.

It is recommended to rebalance the Coffeehouse portfolio every year. That secures that the asset allocation percentages are held at the accurate amounts. But it can be an individual decision for every investor, there are no rules what is the accurate amount.

Modifications of this lazy portfolio

As you can see this portfolio holds more bonds. It is more than some average investors would like to hold, especially if you are young. To make a comparison, the target-date funds, for instance, for Vanguard hold 10% bonds until investors are 45. We found some of the Trinity University studies and one shows that even investors in retirement should own 50/50 portfolios or even more aggressive.

Honestly, the Coffeehouse portfolio favors small-cap and value stocks. And do it with reason. Historically they have had higher returns and which means higher volatility too. But you can tweak the portfolio.

How to adjust the Coffeehouse portfolio

One method is to reduce your exposure to bonds (for example you could hold 10% of them) and split the rest of the portfolio equally into six funds. In this way, you’ll have a much more aggressive portfolio if you like that. But keep in mind, that is riskier at the same time and you must know how much risk you are able to handle.

Why not invest in the Coffeehouse portfolio

Firstly, for some investors, this portfolio hasn’t enough international exposure. It holds only 10% of Total International Stocks. Secondly, the 40% bond allocation will reduce your returns, you can be sure. Also, rebalancing can be expensive. There are too many funds to set them up.

For young investors, it isn’t so easy to just buy and hold. What if the prices are going up and down frequently? How to stay calm and do nothing? That’s the tricky part of any lazy portfolio.

Also, as we said above, the Coffeehouse portfolio can be too conservative for some investors. Where has the excitement of investing gone? Yes, you can adjust the portfolio as we described but still. Hence, to be honest, the one size that suits all methods sometimes don’t work for everyone. Especially if you prefer to be a more aggressive investor.

Why invest in this portfolio

Allocation on the value stocks is an advantage. The value stocks have outperformed growth stocks for 20%, according to historical data. Also, since this portfolio holds 20% small-cap stocks, it is good because they have outperformed large caps. Historically speaking, of course. By being a lazy portfolio and holds 40% in bonds, the Coffeehouse portfolio is less risky.

Bottom line

A creator of this portfolio is Bill Schultheis. He wrote a book about dullness investing. He had found that when you simplify your investment decisions, you end up with better returns.

His book “The Coffeehouse Investor” explains why investors should stop holding top-level stocks or mutual funds, and stop attempting to beat the stock market. Instead, keep stick to three clever principles:

1) There is no free lunch
2) Never put all eggs in just one basket
3) Save for rainy days

Sure, there is one more. Don’t pay too much attention to daily ups and downs in the stock market. It can ruin your life. But with investing in the principle buy-and-hold, with an annual rebalancing of your portfolio, it is more likely that you will build your wealth. There’s nothing wrong with adjusting the CoffeeHouse portfolio. It’s more important that you stick with your plan. The weighting of your allocations is less important but has to be reasonable. And a note for newbies, sometimes it is smarter to be a bit conservative especially in the stock market.

And here is a bit of statistics. Behavioral finance professors Brad Barber and Terry Odean discovered: “The more you trade the less you earn.” Buy-and-hold investors are doing better than traders. Active traders can lose a lot of money paying transaction costs and taxes.

The truth is that active traders can turn their portfolios over for more than 250% per year, but their returns can be just like 11% after paying tax. Opposite, buy-and-hold investors can turn their portfolios over a bit around 2%, making around 18% returns.

Finally, this is just one of the numerous approaches to investing. You are the one who has to choose. It’s all up to you.

28th January 2020
The Barbell Portfolio – Strategy Of A Balance

The barbell portfolio holds only short term and long term bonds and generates fixed income. A flattening yield curve situation is the best time to use this strategy, while a steepening curve is harmful to the strategy.

The barbell portfolio was invented by bond traders. The strategy means to hold safe short-term bonds and riskier long-term bonds. Put them together and that is the barbell portfolio. This also means that you are betting on both sides. But your barbell portfolio gives you protection since you have extremely safe short-term bonds. Yes, they will provide you with less profit but the profit is compensated from the other side of your portfolio – by long-term bonds that are extremely risky but provides a great profit.

Building a barbell portfolio, you will give your investments a balance that can run you through different circumstances, even extreme ones. The barbell portfolio is a very simple investment allocation actually. But the barbell portfolio is heavily weighted on two ends, just like a barbell. This concept is easy to understand and we want to explain it by using bonds. You can create this kind of portfolio with cash and stocks, also it can be a nice substitute to a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.

How to structure barbell portfolio

Let’s say the short-term bonds are risk-free. But you will not earn a lot by holding only them. To have a profit you must add something riskier to your portfolio. So, you can do it by holding long-term bonds. You see we are not considering mid-term bonds. There are long-term bonds to provide the yield to your portfolio.

Yes, they are the riskiest but also give the highest returns.

The idea of this kind of portfolio is to bypass and avoid the risk on one side of the barbell portfolio and to do it as much as possible but to put more risks with long-term bonds.

For every investor, the risks diversification is one of the most important parts. So how to do that with a barbell portfolio? For example, you can build it if one half of your portfolio is in bonds with 5 years maturities and the rest is in bonds with 15 years maturities. The point is to put weight on both ends of your portfolio. But it hasn’t to be equal weight. it can be turned in one direction or another. Of course, it depends on an investor’s vision and yield demands.

You have to pay attention to the bond barbell strategy. It isn’t a passive strategy. You will need to monitor short-term bonds and adjust them frequently. Also, the other end with long-term bonds should be adjusted from time to time because of their maturities shorten. Some investors will just add new bonds to replace the existing.

Barbell Investing

It is all about aiming to balance risk in your investment portfolio. For example, if you put bonds on the left end of the barbell portfolio you might be faced with rising interest rates. So, the value of the bonds could decline. In order to balance the weight, you can replace them or part of them with, for example, with dividend-paying stocks, or some other ETFs. This left side has a great role. It has to protect your wealth so the savvy investor will always choose low-volatile and low-risk assets for the left end.

The right side’s role in your barbell is to give you high profits. That is your financial goal. So you can add some aggressive stocks there instead of long-term bonds.

The barbell strategy is actually a simple investment allocation. Two ends, two sides of your portfolio are designed like opposite ends. What you have to do is to allocate your capital between safe and aggressive sides. Some experts recommend holding 80% treasury bonds and 20% stocks.

Some may ask why to diversify like this. Here is why. Let’s say you have invested 100% in different stocks. Yes, you have a diversified portfolio but you are, at the same time, 100% exposed to downside risk and you are at risk to lose all your capital invested.

But if you build a barbell portfolio with 80% bonds and 20% stocks your downside risk can arise on your risky part of the portfolio. That is 20% of stocks. But the point is that the majority of your portfolio will be in safe investments. Moreover, bonds will give you interest too.

Why use this strategy?

Because it can lower risks for investors. At the same time, it can provide exposure to higher yield bonds. Higher yields will compensate for the higher interest risk rate. So that is the first benefit. This strategy allows investors to have access to higher yield long-term bonds. The other benefit is that this strategy reduces risks because the short-term and long-term bonds’ returns favor being negatively correlated. In other words, when short-term bonds are doing well, the long-term bonds will have difficulties. When you hold bonds with different maturities it is more likely to have less deadfall risk. Let’s say when interest rates grow, the short term bonds are rolled over and reinvested. Of course, at a higher interest rate. That will compensate for the drop in the value of longer-term bonds. Opposite, when interest rates are lower, the value of the longer-term bonds will grow. Simple as that.

But remember, it’s so important to manage the weight of both ends. And to do it actively. The contrary will never produce long-term returns. If you notice that the assets on one end of your barbell portfolio somehow look expensive you have to change it and balance by leaning toward less expensive assets on the other end. Well, if the prices are expensive on both ends, you will need to reduce overall portfolio risk.

Is there any risk?

Yes, interest rate risk no matter do you hold both long term and short term bonds. If you buy the long-term bonds while the interest rates are low they may lose value quickly when the interest rates increase.

An additional risk of the barbell strategy comes from the investors’ limitation, this portfolio doesn’t include intermediate-term bonds so you will not have exposure to them. And we all know that intermediate-term bonds give better returns than short-term bonds. Yes, they are riskier but not too much. In comparison with long-term bonds, intermediate-term bonds will offer a bit lower returns. That is the downside of the barbell portfolio because you don’t have an opportunity to earn on these returns.

Well, the main risk of the barbell strategy lies in the longer-term bonds. They are more volatile than their short-term bonds. As we said, you will lose if rates rise and you choose to sell them prior to their maturity date. If you keep the bonds until the maturity date, the fluctuations will not influence negatively.

The worst scenario for the barbell is when long-term bond yields are rising faster than the yields on short-term bonds. That is the steepening yield curve. The bonds that make up the long end of the barbell drop in value. So, you may be forced to reinvest the profits of the lower end into low-yielding bonds, to balance the portfolio.

But the flattening yield curve, if yields on shorter-term bonds rise faster than the yields on longer-term bonds you will earn. That is an advantageous part of the barbell strategy.

Bottom line

The benefits of the barbell investing strategy are numerous. Firstly, you will have a better diversification of your investments. Also, you will have more potential to reach higher yields with less risk. If interest rates are falling all you have to do is to reinvest at lower rates when the maturity date of that bond comes. In case the rates are rising, you will have the chance to reinvest the profits of the shorter-term securities at a higher rate. Since the short-term bonds mature frequently, that will provide you the liquidity and adaptability to solve emergencies.

27th January 2020
Black Swan Investing Strategy To Reduce The Risk

Predicting when the next black swan event will happen is the mission impossible. But you can create a portfolio created to reduce the risks related to black swans.

Black Swan investing isn’t quite a strategy, it is more a trading philosophy. Actually, it is a method of predicting the occurrence of black swans. The black swan is an unplanned, unexpected event in the markets. Such events come as a sudden blow and may influence the market. But black swan also can have both a positive and negative impact and we are going to discuss them here.

An example of a negative black swan is the crisis of 2008.

Black Swan investing is a trading philosophy based completely on the probability that some accidental event will hit the markets. To avoid losses caused by a black swan, traders who are trading based on black swan strategy always are buying options, never sell. They never estimate will the market go in one or another direction, up or down, they are buying. These traders are actually betting on the chance the market will move both up and down.

Protection of investments

Behind that behavior is investors’ need for insurance for their portfolio to protect against another black swan event like it was financial crisis 2007-2009.

They are afraid of is losing money as they did at the time of the crash. But losing money is a risk that you have and can determine. The black swan is a risk that you can not determine or predict. How can you plan some sudden and hidden events ahead? Hence, we can’t hedge out the risk of secret and unknown events. All we can do is analyzing past events.

The black swan investing theory is based on an old saying that presumed black swans did not exist. Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed black swan theory but in his book The Black Swan he also recommended traders to fire their advisors claiming that they don’t know enough or know a bit about investing. Brave claim indeed. His belief in the incompetence of financial advisors is based on their disregard for Black Swans.

Is it possible to predict the next event?

It sounds like an impossible task because it is. As we said, how can you predict something unknown? But what you can do is to build a well-diversified portfolio to reduce the risks. Also, now you have this tool to determine when to exit your trade and avoid money losses. Moreover, you can determine when to do that in profit.

Yes, your portfolio can be structured to reduce risks linked to black swans.

Positive or negative black swans

Okay, you would like to know how to invest for positive or negative black swans. So, first of all, you have to understand how not to depend on catastrophic predictions. Let’s say, you invested with the belief that the stocks will grow forever. Also, you are pretty much sure that the financial crisis will never come, or the company will never bankrupt. Well, something has to be changed in your beliefs. The truth can be very painful for you at this very moment. Stocks will not rise all the time. Not even in the next 20 years or even five. They will go up and down.

The main point of black swan investing is to profit from unpredictability. But such events come suddenly, they are surprising, so how can we invest in it? We cannot do it directly. All we can do is to be ready for them, meaning to be exposed to such exceptional but extremely impactful events.

How to expose to a positive black swan

How to do that? How to take advantage?

If you follow Taleb’s definition it is quite clear what to do to positive events. If you can seek exposure to something you can not predict, then seek out exposure that is unrestricted to the upside. Well, there is no need to know will some event come or not, or when it is going to happen. All you have to do is to detect exposures that have the potential to blast if meet the proper conditions.

Exposure to positive black swans may sound a bit esoteric. Some investors that are practicing a black swan strategy like to say that it is necessary to build a portfolio that is able to “invite” positive events, amazing and unexpected. We don’t have material proof that it works.

Their idea is to give a portfolio a chance by setting up limited sums of money or scale it up. If it works, it’s okay. If it doesn’t work, just give up and risk later.

This stands in firm contrast to traditional investing advice.

Behind this idea

For any trader who wants to implement the black swan investing strategy, it is necessary to create a barbell portfolio. This kind of portfolio was created by bond traders. This strategy requires owing safe short-bonds on one side of the barbell, and on another side to balance the weight of investments, riskier long-dated bonds.

By building a barbell portfolio, you’ll have very safe investments on one end and notably risky investments on the other end. The safe investments virtually don’t have risk. They will survive even a black Swan. The risky side of the portfolio opens it up to the endless upside. This kind of portfolio advances despite any circumstances in the market. That’s according to Taleb.

Black Swan investing

Since black swan traders never sell and they are counting on the crash, they are buying out-of-the-money options.

But one question arises. Can any empirical evidence account for black swans? We are afraid the answer is no. So, we cannot predict the market. Why there are still people trying that? Because we all need progress in this field. Yes, we have algos, AIs, learning machines, automated trading, etc. But yet, no one can predict the market. And it is a great challenge. By fair, that moment isn’t so far from us. One day someone will find some formula for that. Frankly, how many people were able to predict all possibilities of the internet? A very small number. Today it is part of our daily lives.

Yes, we truly believe that one day, somewhere, someone will find a way to predict market movements. Meanwhile, there is no need to give up from investing because of the lack of unreachable knowledge. Just work with what you have and know. That would be enough. At last, it was enough for the past 200 years.

Pro tip: Develop an efficient portfolio on a demo account first; (1) Examine how well it guards you from random Black Swans (2) optimize (3) only then risk real funds.

Bottom line

Banks are a negative black swan business. The upside is inadequate and the downside is complete. The examples of positive black swan investing biotechnology stocks, venture capital, publishing, etc.

The venture investor that invested in Uber in its beginning was exposed to a positive black swan, but today would be more exposed to a negative black swan with the same investment.

The key principle in black swan investing is to find extremely aggressive as unreasonable as possible assets. Hence, when you find that chance, take it.

26th January 2020
Insider Trading Is It Legal At All?

Insider trading can be legal or illegal depending on if the information used is public.

By Guy Avtalyon

Insider trading means that someone buys or sells stock based on information that is not freely available to the public. An insider could be someone from the management or simply someone who has access to non-public information. Insider trading can be legal or illegal depending on if the trade is executed on the information that is available to the public or not.

To be honest, everyone likes inside information and rumors. The problem is that most of the time they are just useless gossip. Still, we are all seeking the inside information and have something that is unknown to the majority. If it is possible, to no one.

When it comes to trading, this method of playing based on inside information is seen as insider trading. And it can be legal. Well, in some cases.

What is insider trading

Insider trading is trading based on information that is not accessible to the public. In most cases it illegal but in some specific cases, it is perfectly legal.
Insider trading is illegal when info is received from the insider and traded by traders who received that info and do it before info becomes known to the public. Insider will always give you a hot tip. But is it trustworthy? How will you know that?

That is a crucial difference for insider trading. To make insider trading, the secret information being given must be issued by an insider.

How to recognize the right insider?

Such has access to important non-public information about a company. Usually, it is some from the high-level executives, that have almost all the information about the company’s operations. Well, not all of the high-level management recognize the fiduciary interest and put it ahead of its own. Also, an insider very often owns a big stake in the stock.

In insider trading, an insider can be a trader who acts based on inside info that is not public data.

A legal insider trading

That is a completely different story.

According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, insider trading can be legal but under some circumstances. For example when a CEO of some company purchases stock of the company he is obliged to report to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, legal insider trading is when workers exercise their stock options and buy shares of stock in the company that they work for.

How does illegal insider trading work?

Illegal insider trading is different than legal insider trading. But when it is in violation of the law?

For example, a friend of the CEO of a company heard that his friend could be accused of fraud soon. That info he uses to short shares of his friend’s company because he had the info about bad news that will occur in the future and that will cause the stock price to go down.

The other example is, let’s say, a board member of a company and woman. She knows that the merger is going to be declared in the following days and she assumes the company’s stock price will go up after that. What she is doing? She is buying more shares but not always in her name. Such can buy shares in her husband’s name or parents. That is illegal insider trading.

We are pointing only a few examples of illegal insider trading that may occur. Don’t do that, you may end up in prison.

Does insider selling suggest it’s time to sell?

Acts speak louder than words could ever do. Management is motivated to tell you why should you have to buy the shares of their company. But the insider will tell the true story about the company’s worth. A trend of selling or buying among insiders could give us a clue about the company’s future in the market.

The information that insiders are selling their stocks might give some benefits. Traders may use them to estimate where a stock’s price might go and how insiders price a stock since they have better insight. But remember all data must be public and available.

Anyway, be careful, it isn’t a precise formula. Think about the drawbacks too.

It will take you time and energy to find trends. Moreover, insiders are not always right. Don’t blindly believe in them because they might have some special reasons to sell or buy. And finally, you will get only a small part of large info and that may confuse you, so you may make a bad trade.

Where to find insider info

Speaking about the US stock markets, insiders are obliged to file SEC forms created particularly for insider stock trade reporting. But still, take your time to examine insider trades before you enter your buy or sell positions. Insiders’ information isn’t everything you need to make the right investment decision. You’ll need more.

The SEC made the EDGAR system to provide public access to the insiders’ activity. You can find it on the NASDAQ website. The point is to have the same data from a minimum of two insiders’ sources. Never rely only on one.

How to use insider information

Okay, your search gives you several reports on the company.

So, you can examine the data and find a trend. If your search of insider list displays buying actions, that should be a signal that the company’s management thinks the stock price will go up and want to profit from it as stockholders. But if you see that there is a lot of selling it is usually a sign that the stock price will go down. Insiders will always try to sell before stock prices drop. Anyway, it is only one info and you shouldn’t rely on just one. While you are looking for insider information try to read annual reports, statements, etc. Find other sources to support what you found as an insider trend. Then, you’ll be able to make a proper investment decision.

When you see the executives getting stock option grants and then selling a large part, you shouldn’t be worried. But if you see massive selling and without a visible cause, it’s time to think. Think because you have two options. One is to be a part of the crowd and sell your share or take advantage and buy a share at a bargain. And add to your portfolio to diversify it better.

Famous insider trading cases

The Wall Street Journal writer R. Foster Winans was sentenced to 18 months in prison in 1985 of giving information about stocks he was planning to write about. Two stockbrokers made about $690,000 thanks to his insider information. They were also sentenced.

Ivan Boesky paid $100 million to the Securities and Exchange Commission to compensate insider-trading charges that he made. He earned $50 million in illegal profits. Boesky pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 3½ years in prison in 1987.

Martha Stewart was sentenced. The problem was about her sale of ImClone stock based on a tip that she received from a broker at Merrill Lynch. She was sentenced to 10 months (prison and home confinement). Her stockbroker was also sentenced.

Also, a football player Mychal Kendricks was accused of insider trading after trading based on information he received from a friend. Friend? Yes, a friend who was a broker with Goldman Sachs.

And many others but don’t follow these examples, please. It’s too risky as you can see.

24th January 2020
Diversification Is Important to Your Investment Portfolio

When stock prices drop, bond prices increase. A portfolio that holds stocks and bonds plays better than the one that holds only stocks.

Diversification means to spread the risk across different types of investments. The main purpose of diversification is to enhance your chances of investment success. In other words, you are betting on every one.

Diversification is very important in investing because markets can be volatile and extremely unpredictable. If you diversify your portfolio, you will reduce the chance to lose more than you are prepared to.

And that is exactly what you would like in investing: to spread your capital among different assets. So you’re not relying on a single asset for all of your returns. The key advantage of diversification is that it provides you to minimize the risk of losing the capital invested.

What is diversification?

Diversification means building a portfolio of your investments in a way that the majority of the assets will have a different reaction to the same market performance. For example, when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds. In opposite circumstances, bonds could play better than stocks. Hence, if you hold both stocks and bonds, you will reduce the risks in your portfolio from market swings.

Let’s make this more clear. What do you have in your pantry? Only beans? Of course not! When you went to the grocery you bought everything you need for the week or month ahead. The same should be with your investment portfolio. It should consist of various assets. But not too many. Too many assets mean you will not be able to follow their performances. If you are fresh in the stock market, maybe a two-fund portfolio is a good choice for you. More about this you can read HERE.

Think of these various types of groceries as the different areas, techniques, and areas available to you as an investor. If you have a variety of assets, you’ll be better protected. In the situation when one of your assets is hit by the risk you will still have the others that can give you a profit.

Reasons for diversification

Even the explanation is so simple you can still find so many investors that play on one card. You may ask how some really smart guys could avoid diversification and put all eggs in one basket? We couldn’t find the proper answer because the benefits are so obvious.

By diversification, investors lower the overall risk. It is logical how this works. When you spread your investments in various classes (diversifying them) you have more chances to avoid the negative influence in your portfolio. For example, let’s say you invested in stocks only and you hold a stock of just one company. Yes, we know you like it, it is a good company, famous, well-run. But if suddenly something unpleasant hit it and the stock price drops, let’s say, for 30%, how that occasion will influence your overall portfolio? You will lose 30% of your portfolio. But let’s consider the other situation. Let’s say that stock makes up a modest part of 5% in your portfolio. So, how much of your overall portfolio you will lose now? Can you see where is the benefit of diversification? It lowers the risk. Even during economic downturns, you will still have good players in your portfolio. Hence, if you have bonds and stocks added to your portfolio, it is more likely that even one of them will run well during particular circumstances. Bonds will play better when the economy is decreasing, but when the economy is growing, stocks will outperform bonds.

Diversification and investment strategy

You can find various investment strategies but two are most popular: growth and value investing.

Value investors tend to consider the strength of a company and its management. They would estimate if the company’s stock price is undervalued based on its true worth.

On the other side, growth investors would estimate how fast the company is growing, could its new products stimulate future earnings, etc.
By taking just one strategy you can miss out on the benefits of the other. But if you spread your investments on both of these strategies, it is pretty sure that you’ll be able to enjoy the benefits of each.

Influence of “home country bias”

Well, it is completely natural that investors are more attracted to their own state markets, the national industry. That’s how we come to the “home country bias” in investing. Of course, it is a natural tendency. But it can be a problem too. “Home country bias” can limit your investments to the offer from domestic markets. But what is needed for profitable and successful investing is to step out of your comfort zone. Foreign markets can be profitable also. What you have to do as an investor is to add some international fund or company to your portfolio. It is good protection and well-done diversification. Diversification across international markets will protect your investments if the domestic economy downturns (no one wants that, of course) or during the recession in your country. Several years ago we heard one of the investors saying it isn’t a patriotic gesture. Well, we have to say, investing isn’t an act of patriotism. It is all about profit.

Produces more opportunities

Eventually, diversification produces more opportunities if you make smart choices that deliver balance to your investment portfolio.

For example, you only invest in stocks. But suddenly some great opportunity occurs to invest in, for example, bonds. What will you do? Refuse to invest in bonds because you are not comfortable with them and risk to miss potential profit? We don’t think it is a smart idea. Never miss the opportunity to earn more, that isn’t in the nature of investing. Admit, you will never miss this opportunity to invest in bonds if you have a diversified portfolio. So, diversification gives you more opportunities to invest.

Protect and improve your finances

It is important to understand all the benefits of diversification. It isn’t hard to do. Actually, it is very simple. You have to read more, learn and be patient. If you diversify your investment portfolio you will have a chance to build stable finances over time.

How to diversify your portfolio

Firstly, never be too much invested. You will not be the winner if you own hundreds of assets. Okay, let’s say this way. Your portfolio is your team. And, as in every team, each part plays its role. No coach will put all players in one position. It’s stupid. Plus, how such a team will win anything? Of course, zero chances!

The point of diversifying is to hold investments that able to work separated tasks on your team.

Every single part of your portfolio should have a different role. For example, if you prefer stocks, diversify your portfolio to S&P 500 (that would provide you exposure to large-caps) and add some small-caps.

If you have a bond portfolio diversify it across short and long bonds, or higher-quality bonds, etc. That will reduce the risks. Or just add alternative investments in your portfolio. For example, private equity, hedge funds, real property, venture capital, commodities, etc.

Bottom line

How will you know you’re diversified? A well-diversified investment portfolio will never move in the same trend and at the same time. You must have one thing on your mind: you are the manager of your portfolio. Also, it is almost impossible for all investments to grow all the time. It is 100% sure that some of your positions will be lost, will lose you money. When that happens you will need the other holdings to balance that fall.

Diversification guards you against producing an undesired risk to your capital. Anyway, it is too risky to put all your money into one single investment. The key to diversification is to spread your money across asset classes and to allocate within classes. That is a smart approach.

23rd January 2020
No Brainer Portfolio – Lazy Portfolio

The main feature of this portfolio is the idea that most return is determined by the asset allocation of the portfolio, more than by asset selection.

No Brainer portfolio is one of the “Lazy portfolios”. No Brainer portfolio cover investments proportionately in four asset classes – US bonds, total US stock market, small-cap US stocks, and international stocks. It is very useful for investors with long-term goals. The point is that investors can favor one of the asset classes at different times. By doing so investors could gain nice risk-adjusted returns.

Designed for investors with a long time horizon that will favor each of the classes at various times, the portfolio aims to provide diversified risk-adjusted returns. This motif seeks to replicate Dr. Bernstein’s model by identifying ETFs that would be contained within the “No Brainer” asset class structure.

Dr. William Bernstein believes that asset allocation is more valuable for investors than choosing individual stocks or bonds.

This is the simplest portfolio Dr. Bernstein explains in his famous book “The Intelligent Asset Allocator”. Well, this book is generally suggested not only for the No Brainer portfolio. You can find a lot of extremely valuable info on the diversification and portfolio construction in this book. It is highly recommended among investors.

In this book, Dr. William Bernstein explores historical performance to come at an almost simple to implement a portfolio. He believes this portfolio should perform well in the long-term. No Brainer portfolio consists of four asset classes in the following proportion:

25% Short-term Bonds
25% of International Stocks
25% Small-Cap Stocks
25% Large-Cap Stocks

All you need is a simple, well-diversified portfolio

The Bernstein no-brainer tracks very strictly the “simple is better” rule. This lazy portfolio could be very suitable for any investor who dislikes monitoring the investments every day and has a longer time horizon.

Here are some stats about the total return by using the No Brainer portfolio.

Over the past 10 years, the No Brainer portfolio has had an annual return of about 5%. Not good enough? In fact, it is in line with the S&P 500. This portfolio is a wonderful choice for anyone who doesn’t like high-risk, not-assured returns.

Why the No Brainer portfolio is so special?

Diversification! Yes, Dr. William Bernstein’s No Brainer portfolio is focused on diversification through many asset classes. It covers almost all assets. There is some interesting thing about William Bernstein, according to his own words he is asset class junkie but not only because of this particular portfolio. Dr. Bernstein is the creator of many portfolios.

So, you can imagine how broadly his portfolios display diversification. It is a 360-degree portfolio.

Among others, he created Four Pillars, Cowards Portfolio, Sheltered Sam Portfolio, etc.

For example, his Cowards Portfolio consists off:

10.00% US Large Cap Value
15.00% US Large Cap
10.00% US Small Cap Value
5.00% US Small Cap
5.00% REITs
5.00% Emerging Markets
5.00% Pacific Stocks
5.00% European Stocks
40.00% Short Term Treasuries

What are the advantages?

By applying this kind of portfolio, so-called lazy portfolios, you could minimize taxes by asset location or by adding a specific asset class such as municipal bonds. You could build such a portfolio based on your age and appetite for risk. Also, you can add employees’ stocks.

All this shows the no brainer portfolio as a very helpful model for all of your investments.

The most important, Bernstein’s no brainer portfolio will never face you with the cruel reality. Contrary, it will save you from that since from the very beginning you will know what you can expect in the returns.

Why use the no brainer portfolio?

Investing is hard but by applying some of the lazy portfolios it doesn’t have to be, investing could be easier. How is that? Let’s see!

Here, in the no brainer portfolio, you have ONLY 4 asset classes. That provides you to have a quick overview of your investments. It is simple. Why would you like complexity? It may cost a lot of money and time to watch.

Moreover, this portfolio doesn’t contain any special asset classes. So they are simple to understand. Just 4 asset classes! That’s so easy!

Who is the creator of the No Brainer portfolio?

William Bernstein was born in Philadelphia and educated in California where he earned a Ph.D. in chemistry at Berkeley. Did you know that he did it in just three years? To got the opportunity to work more closely with people, he went back to school and earned M.D. from UC–San Francisco. At that time he was the only neurologist in Coos County.

From 1980 to 1990, Dr. Bernstein treated migraines, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Ten years living all of these, he was under enormous stress and was forced to cut his working hours. Also, he wanted to pay more attention to his hobby – finances and investing. And Bernstein decided to learn more about it.

The first thing he required was data. Several years later he started to write a book with an interesting premise: people are wrongly trading individual assets instead to buy entire markets.

The book was published on his website Efficient Frontier in 1996.

and in 2001, McGraw-Hill published “The Intelligent Asset Allocator”. His “The Four Pillars of Investing” was published in 2002.

How to create a lazy portfolio

First, keep the cost as low as you can. Define your tolerance for risk and how big returns you want. Find data for historical returns to build a portfolio of index funds. They have to hold a mixture of assets that are able to produce a balance between risk and return. Investigate among different classes value stocks, small-caps, bonds, REITs, micro-caps, everything. You may think you will need a powerful software for this. Actually, a bit of common sense is all that you need. For example, pick 60% stock and 40% bonds. That will work well for investors. The other solution is to choose some low-cost fund that includes stocks and bonds both.

Sounds simple, right?

Bottom line

According to Bernstein, all you need are several skills to be a successful investor. One is understanding the financial implications of numbers since math is what lies behind investing. Also, as an investor, you must have the ability to trade without emotions. In other words: sell when the stock prices are growing, and buy when they are falling. And be independent. You have to have your opinion. Don’t believe in everything that pricey advisers say. Have trust in your basket of assets.

The lazy portfolios offer higher returns. This kind of portfolio has withstood the test of time and will be valuable for many years. And, as final words, don’t let be overwhelmed by too much information. Sometimes, you will make better choices with less info.

22nd January 2020
What is Riskier Bonds or Stocks?

(Updated October 2021)

In some scenarios, bonds are riskier than stocks. The main problem is how to run your investments stable but not cutting the growth stocks have to give.

Do you think the stocks are riskier than bonds? Well, stock prices are more volatile than bonds, that’s the truth. Also, bonds are paying fixed income. What else is on the bond side? Well, not much. Maybe these two is all since bonds could be riskier than stocks. The whole truth is that bonds are very risky for the companies, but at the same time, less risky for investors. Speaking about stocks, they are less risky for the companies but for investors, they can be extremely risky.

So, why do so many people think that bonds are less risky? We have to solve this dilemma: what is riskier, bonds or stocks.

The most and least risky investments

There are so many factors that have an influence on how some investment will perform. Honestly, all investments carry some level of risk. Speaking about bonds, they are under the great influence of inflation while stock investors may not feel it so much. Stocks have some other kind of risks, for example, liquidity risk. Such a problem bond investments don’t have.

Firstly, stocks are the riskiest investments, but they also give excellent potential for high returns. Stocks or equity investments cover stocks and stock mutual funds.

Bonds or Fixed Income Investments cover bonds and bond mutual funds. They’re less risky than stocks but generate lower returns than stocks.

The third-place belongs to cash or certificates of deposit, money market funds, Treasury bills, and similar investments. They are giving lower returns than stocks or bonds but carry a little risk also.

What are stocks and bonds?

To understand what is riskier, bonds or stocks we have to make clear what each of them is. There are two main concepts of how companies can raise money to finance their businesses. One is to issue stocks and the other is to issue the bonds.

Stocks and equity are the same. Both define ownership in a company and can be traded on the stock exchanges. Equity defines ownership of assets after the debt is paid off, so it is a bit broader term. Stock relates to traded equity. Equity also means stocks or shares.

In the stock market tongue, equity and stocks are the same.

Stocks

Stocks will give you an ownership stake in the profits of the business, but without the promise of payment. That’s why stocks are riskier. The companies may decide to pay dividends but nothing else is an obligation. While holding the stocks the value of your investment will vary related to the company’s profit. Stocks are also dependent on investors’ sentiment and confidence. Anyway, stocks are safer for companies since they are a sure way to raise the money needed to maintain business. For investors, stocks are riskier since the companies don’t have any obligation to provide any kind of return. If the company is growing and rising profit, investors will obtain capital gains.

Bonds

Bonds are parts of debt issued by companies and transformed into assets to be able to trade in the market. Bonds give fixed interest rates also called coupons to bondholders. The companies have to pay the interest rate before any dividend to stockholders. Otherwise, the bonds go into default. Also, bonds are conversely related to interest rates, meaning, when rates go up, bond prices drop.

Can you see now? How to answer the question of what is riskier, bonds or stocks? For investors, stocks are a riskier investment, for the companies, the bonds are riskier.

Bonds vs Stocks

The majority of investments can be classified as bond investments or stock investments. In stock investment, you are buying an asset and your profit depends on the performance of that asset. If you buy a y a thousand shares of Tesla, your profit is based upon the stock dividend which Tesla pays (if any) and upon the fluctuation of the value of Tesla shares.

In a bond investment, you actually loan money to a company or a government. With a bond investment, your profit is not related to the performance of the company. If you buy a $2,000 bond from Tesla, for example, and the company earns a record profit, your profit will be the same as if Tesla didn’t make a profit at all. But here is the risk involved with the bond investment. What if the company is unable to pay back the debt? You can lose all your investment.

Stock investment is recognized as a higher risk. But risk makes a profit, therefore you will earn a higher return over the long term.

So, what is riskier, bonds or stocks?

Risks and rewards of stocks investments

Stock investments offer higher risks but greater rewards. A lot of things influence that. An increased sales, for example, or market share, or any improvement or development of the company’s business, literally anything can shift the stock price and skyrocket it. So, investors can earn by selling them or by receiving the dividends.

Any company can succeed or stumble. That’s the reason why nobody should invest in just one company. Do you know the saying: Never put all eggs into one basket? But if you hold stocks from several companies you will ensure high returns over the long term.

But, so many investors couldn’t watch the unfortunate events without selling their stocks at a loss.

Well, if you don’t have a stomach for that just stay away from the market or, which is a better choice, diversify your investment portfolio. Add some bonds-based investments, that will help you when the stock market gets rough. Moreover, a well-diversified portfolio will give you a bumper by providing lower volatility and calm play. So, you will not be forced to sell your investments and feel stress while making decisions.

Bottom line

So, do you have the answer what is riskier, bonds or stocks?
Yes, stock prices fluctuate more than the prices of bonds but that doesn’t necessarily mean more risk for the investor. There are a lot of cases when bonds are riskier than stocks.

For example, over a high inflationary period when inflation is surging quickly, the bond price can be damaged, decreased. The inflation will decrease the value of payments, and the bonds will mature less valuable.

On the contrary, stocks can boost their prices during inflation. The companies could raise prices of their products and increase their profits. That would raise the value of their stock, even higher than the inflation rate.

Can you see how the bonds might be riskier investments than stocks?

During the regular economic conditions, stocks could be much riskier than bonds.

Stock prices could sink sharply. Hold! Don’t sell! Wait for a while, wait for a stock to bounce back in price. And you know what, when the stock prices are falling, there is no better moment to buy them and hold. Just pick a well-established company.

The point is that bonds are not always the safest asset. They can be very risky. In some scenarios, stocks can be a much safer choice.

Savvy investors will buy both to diversify portfolios. Of course, how many of each you will hold isn’t set in stone. You can change it over your lifetime as many times as you want to reach your goals and earn a profit.

21st January 2020
Employees Stock Options are What European Startups Need

In contrast to Silicon Valley, European startup employees are not known for earning millions from the company’s stock.
Stock options policies in Europe are a major barrier to the tech growth and that has to be changed.

Employees stock options are issued by many companies. For example, startups use them to hire talented they need because they cannot afford to pay them more in cash.
The situation is especially difficult in Europe where the policy doesn’t give a chance for companies to issue employees stock options. That causes problems for many companies but for the startups, it is maybe the biggest.

Recently, the campaign Not Optional published a letter where stated:

“Without delay, we call on legislators to fix the patchy, inconsistent and often punitive rules that govern employee ownership — the practice of giving staff options to acquire a slice of the company they’re working for.”

Some European countries started to relax rules on employee stock options. France is one of them, but employees still favor cash.

This country recently exposes a list of changes to rules on employee stock options to meet a request from French startups. Their aim is to compete with US competitors and big companies in recruiting staff.

France is changing a set of rules, for example, the price at which the companies ( including foreign companies) can offer them to employees. The goal is to make France one of the most friendly areas for startups in Europe.

Being competitive

Difficulties in implementation employee stock option rules and availability of capital, are reasons why European have problems to create large tech businesses. That’s the reason for staying behind the US but the EU wants to keep up. There is a strong campaign for changes in employee stock options in Europe now.

According to Not Optional, a campaign is supported by 500 European founders and they are lobbying new stock options policy across the continent.

They recognize employee stock options policy as a major drawback to European tech growth. Due to the problems with the fund-raising, issuing employee stock options can be a great opportunity. Well, recently many countries declared changes, France isn’t the only one.

Ireland changed some of its stock option practices, also, the new Finnish government is examining changes on how stock options are taxed. The German Startups Association has started a campaign to lobby for changes too. As a confirmation that employee stock options are on the Brussels agenda – Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, discussed stock options in Commission hearings.

Do employees want stock options instead of cash?

Many European tech employees are, however, at best doubtful about stock options, according to Sifted. The employees don’t have positive responses. Maybe it’s surprising how they have a lack of trust but someone has to educate them, to explain the benefits of having the company’s stock. For that to do isn’t enough just yelling that “we are all shareholders of the company”. It isn’t complicated.

So, let’s start.

Understanding employee stock options

Let’s see how the employee stock options work.

Companies give stock options through a contract that provides employees the right to buy a set number of shares of the company stock at a pre-set price.

The right to buy is commonly called exercise, and a pre-set price is the grant price.

There is one important characteristic connected to employee stock options – time, the offers don’t last forever. Employees have a strict period to exercise the stock options before the date of expiration. Also, the employer could require that an employee must exercise the options within a defined period after leaving the company.

The number of options that the company could give to its employees is different from company to company. Also, not all employees will get the same number of stock options. It depends on status, rank, seniority.

How do they work

For example, you got a new job at a new firm. Besides your salary, you will receive stock options, as part of the payments. Let’s say you will receive stock options for 10.000 shares of your new company’s stock. You and the company are both obliged to sign the contract that describes the terms of the stock options.

There will define the grant date. That is the date your options are available for you to buy. This means your stock options begin to vest. But you will not get all of your stock options immediately when you start working for a company. The options vest gradually. That period is known as the vesting period and it can last several years, for example. So, let’s say the vesting period is 5 years. This means it will take 5 years before you have the right to buy all 10.000 shares. But you’ll have access to some of your stock options before those 5 years are up. 1/5 of your options will likely vest each year over that 5-year vesting period. So, after 3 years of employment, for example, you will have the right to exercise 6.000 options.

But your contract may contain one important part – a milestone. The clause that you have to stay for at least one year with the company to have a chance to get any of your stock options. When you reach the first milestone you will receive your first 1/5 of your stock options. After that, it is possible to get every month some amount of them, usually, they are the same. For example, the rest of the 8.000 shares you’ll obtain in 48 parts each month.

But if you leave the company before reaching the milestone for the first year, you won’t get any options.

How to exercise

After your stock options vest once, you can exercise them. What does it mean? You can buy them. Until you do that, the options don’t have any value. The price of your stock options is part of the contract mentioned above. That is a so-called strike price or grant price or exercise price. This price never depends on how the company is doing. It will always stay the same.

For example, after your 5-years vesting period, you have 10.000 stock options with a strike price of $2. If you want to exercise (buy) all of your options you’ll have to pay $20.000. When you buy all your stock options you are the owner and you can do with them whatever you want. You can sell them, keep them (only if you think the price will go up) but remember, you have to pay fees, taxes, and commissions when you are buying or selling the options.

There are some ways to exercise your stock options without spending cash. For example, you can make a buy-and-sell action. To do this, you’ll buy your options and quickly sell them through a brokerage. Another strategy is the exercise-and-sell-to-cover transaction.

Practically, you have to sell enough shares to cover your buying of all shares and keep the rest. But be aware, your stock options have an expiration date. So, read the contract carefully. Usually, options expire 10 years from the grant date. After that date, they are useless if you don’t exercise them.

Bottom line

It is good to exercise options when the price is lower than the same stock on the market. For example, your stock options’ strike price is $2 but the same stock is traded at $4 on the market. Just sell them and make a profit. It is obvious, if you have some clue or expectation that your company’s stock price will grow, you can hold them as long as you want and sell them at the most favorable moment. It isn’t forbidden to sell them on the market.

But you should wait if the price of your company’s stock is lower than your exercise price. In such a case, don’t exercise them because you might lose your money. Just wait for the price to increase before exercising.

20th January 2020
CAPE Ratio Or The Shiller PE Ratio

The CAPE ratio has some predictive ability so you can create your investment strategy based on the CAPE.

The CAPE ratio is a variety of the P/E ratio. Just like the P/E ratio, the CAPE ratio shows whether a stock price is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued.

But, the CAPE ratio permits the evaluation of a company’s profitability during various periods of an economic cycle. The CAPE ratio also analyses economic fluctuations, both the economy’s expansion and recession. Basically, the CAPE ratio is a tool analysts use to measure how ‘cheap’ or ‘expensive’ the stock market is. We can know that only if we compare its P/E ratio with historical values over the last 10 years, that is common. And if the P/E ratio of the market is lower than it’s 10-years average we can say the market is undervalued. Hence, if the 10-years average is higher, the market is overvalued.

This metric to estimate if the stock market is overvalued or undervalued was developed by Robert Shiller, an American Nobel Prize Laureate in economics. It became very popular during the Dotcom Bubble. At that time Shiller perfectly pointed out that equities were extremely overvalued. That’s why this metric is also called Shiller PE.

How to calculate the CAPE ratio?

It is possible if you divide the current market price by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings per share.

CAPE RATIO = PRICE / AVERAGE EARNINGS ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION

That’s a big bite, so lets this formula to make a bit simpler.

Let’s say, some farmer is selling apples for $20 each. WOW! This guy may make a fortune. But who will pay $20 for just one apple? Is it golden? Everyone would think the price is insane. But let’s take a look at historical data for the last 10 years. For example, we found one single apple has been selling at $40 over the past 10 years. This would change your opinion and we suddenly believe the price of $20 isn’t high, it is contrary, very cheap. Something different we would believe if we found the apple average price was $2 over the last 10 years. Who would buy now?

So, we estimated what was the average apple price in 10 years to have a comprehensive idea of how much apple costs.

Let’s this example apply to the stock market which has a historical price called a P/E.

P/E is when the price per share is divided by the earnings per share each year. If the farmer mentioned above started a company and makes $2 a share and the stock market values each share of the company at $10, what would the P/E ratio be? The P/E would be 5.

Let’s use CAPE

If the CAPE ratio is extremely high, which means that we have a company with a higher stock price than the company’s earnings show. So we would easily conclude that the stock of such a company is overvalued. Of course, we can expect that the market will ultimately correct the stock price by shifting it down to its fair value.

How the CAPE Ratio Works

A good position for following the CAPE ratio is to estimate the basic P/E ratio as first. It is a generally-accepted metric, but Shiller noticed a restriction in it.

Well, a company’s earnings can be reasonably volatile from year to year particularly during top and not so good years in a business cycle. To have accurate info about some company we have to minimize the effect of the short-term business cycle on the valuation. That was the problem that Shiller noticed. Instead of looking at just one year, he created the ratio that takes into consideration the average earnings over the past 10 years. This provides comparing valuations over a longer period of time.

One disadvantage of the popular P/E ratio is that it is related to the past 12-months earnings only. But what if something temporary happens during that period? For instance, a big store-chain has to close some of them for restoring them. That would reduce the earning for sure but the company finished what was planned and made progress in earnings. But you didn’t buy a share of that company just because you made your decision based only on one metric – P/E ratio. And you missed the profit. By using the CAPE ratio you would be able to make a better choice.

Ability of Forecasting

The CAPE ratio showed its importance in recognizing possible bubbles and market crashes. It was determined that the historical average of the ratio for the S&P 500 Index was inside 15 and 16. The maximum levels of the ratio passed 30. The record-high levels occurred several times. The first was in 1929 before the Wall Street crash that flagged the Great Depression. The second occurred in the late 1990s and announced the Dotcom Crash. Also, we had signals before the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis.

Speaking about investors and investments, there is held to be a relationship between the CAPE ratio and future earnings. Shiller noticed that lower ratios give higher returns for investors over time.

Nevertheless, there are critiques regarding the use of the CAPE ratio in predicting earnings. The main problem is that the CAPE ratio does not calculate the moves in accounting reporting rules. For example, what if changes in the calculation of earnings under the GAAP appear? That could change the ratio and present a pessimistic sense of future earnings.

Bottom line

The CAPE isn’t the only metric you should use when investing but of course, it is one of.

It’s mostly used to the S&P 500, but can be applied to any stock index. The advantage is that it is one of several valuation metrics that can help you. It is important to find the current relationship between the price you pay for stock and future earnings. If the CAPE is high, and other measures are high, it is a good idea to cut your stock exposure. Also, you can invest in something cheaper.

A savvy investor should always compare the price that pays and the value that gets. Regularly, all investors want to buy a company when its stock is trading at a low P/E ratio. That will give them a better profit.

But that could be the problem too. When a recession, the stock will fall. At the same time, the company’s earnings will fall, and that can quickly raise the P/E ratio. But it is temporary. The consequence is that we are receiving a false signal that the market is expensive. And what we are doing? We don’t buy the stock when certainly it’s the best time to buy it. And here is the point where the CAPE ratio is fully useful.

It shows a more realistic relationship between current prices and earnings based on 10-years average adjusted for inflation over the latest business cycle.

When you are choosing which assets to sell, CAPE can be a great support. If you see that CAPE shows the S&P 500 is undervalued, sell bonds. And when CAPE shows the S&P 500 is overvalued, sell those holdings first.

19th January 2020