Tag: volume

  • Open Interest Strategy And How To Use It

    Open Interest Strategy And How To Use It

    Open Interest Strategy And How To Use It
    Open interest strategy is based on indicators that traders use to confirm trends and trend reversals for the stock futures and stock options markets. 

    Do you use an open interest strategy in trading options? What? No? Maybe that is the reason behind your losses. Well,  you are not alone, to be honest. Many traders don’t use open interest strategy while trading options. Yes, if you want to be a profitable trader you have to analyze open interest. It is a very important momentum indicator. So, let’s see how you could have better chances to reach profitable trading by using an open interest strategy in trading options. But first, we have to understand open interest. 

    What is the open interest?

    Open interest represents the number of active contracts. It shows how many contracts for options and futures are for the given market. This important indicator shows the strength of the market and measures how actively traded the market is. Someone could say we have the volume for that estimation. Wait! It isn’t the same as volume. There are some differences. 

    You can notice this data along with current prices, volume, and volatility. But still, so many options traders overlook active contracts, so that can lead to shocking results. They are losing too much money and have too many lost trades.

    So, open interest shows the cumulative number of options or futures contracts that are currently traded but not yet cashed by an exercise, offsetting trade or assignment.

    How to calculate?

    There is simple math to do that when running an open interest strategy. The calculation is: add all contracts connected with opening trades and subtract all contracts connected with closing trades. For example, let’s assume we have 3 traders. Okay, we will give them the names: Anna, Bob, and Connie.

    Assume they are trading the same futures contract, in our case study. When Anna buys one contract and enters the long trade, open interest will increase by 1. When Bob buys 5 contracts and goes long too, the open interest will increase to 6. Connie picks to short the market and decides to sell 4 contracts, open interest will increase to ten. Open interest will stay the same until one of them or all exit their positions. In such a case open interest will decline. For example, Anna sold 1 contract and open interest declined to 9. Also, Bob decided to exit his position, he buys back his five contracts, so open interest will be down to 4 and will remain at 4 until Connie decides to sell her 4 contracts. 

    Volume and open interest

    And here is where the volume is different from open interest. While the volume counts all contracts traded, open interest shows how many contracts stay open in the market. So, we can say they are related concepts but different in what is taken into account. Open interest also shows how much money is in the futures or options market. When open interest rises, more money is flowing and when open interest decreases money is going out of the options or futures contracts.

    It can be more complicated since the traders are buying or selling from other traders who are selling or buying. You will find that both sides can open their trades and increase open interest. If both sides close their trades, open interest will drop. But if one side of traders is opening the trades and the other is closing that will have no influence on open interest.

    That is another difference from the volume. The volume will increase caused by both entries or exits, open interest will increase caused by entries and decrease caused by exits.

    Analyze open interest strategy

    Open Interest is relevant for both stock futures traders and stock options traders. It displays you where the traders are allocating their money. Therefore, you must have an open interest strategy. To be able to create an open interest strategy you have to analyze the open interest data. We can find a lot of option sellers in the market. It is due to the time decay of the premium of stock options.

    Their profit is maximum the premium value of the sold option, but the possibility of losing is extremely big. The option sellers are generally very agile and ready to close their positions quickly in case of any unfavorable change. In the market, we can see the bullish traders selling their put options since they get premium if the price doesn’t run under the strike price. In the same sense, the bearish traders are selling their call options since they get premium if the price doesn’t run over the strike price. 

    If we notice a high open interest in any stock’s strike price of calls and puts, we should understand these levels as support or resistance areas. It will depend on if the option is put or call.

    So, the open interest will confirm the strength of a trend. Rising open interest is a confirmation of the trend. On the other side, reducing open interest can be a signal of a failing trend. Traders are supporting the trend when they enter the market and that raises the open interest. Hence, when traders don’t believe or when they lose confidence in the trend open interest will decrease.

    The importance of reports

    At the end of each trading day, the open interest data report is published. This report includes all details about open interest from all market players, are they holding long or short positions. These reports provide important info about what all players are doing in the market for futures and options contracts. Traders use open interest strategy to support their decisions. For example, if a trader notices a big move in the open interest he or she knows that particular market players are entering or leaving the position. That may give hints to market direction.

    Using open interest strategy

    In trading futures, for example, the initial stage of a trend, post-breakout, is not started by trend followers. It is driven by traders who had to liquidate their positions because they were on the wrong side and had to catch the direction of the old trend. The more traders on the wrong side mean the more violent the move post-breakout. Well, you have to understand, if open interest increases during a range-bound action, the transit post-breakout in any direction will be violent. So, if the open interest falls at the start of a new trend, that is the sign that losers are covering their positions.

    For example, the price is moving inside the 6 months average levels, but you notice that operating loss has started growing massively. What’s going on? Is the price still in the range? Oh, yes. Let’s examine this more. For example, the company’s average operating loss per share was $5, last week it reached $8 but the price is still in the same range. How is this possible? It is possible by creating new positions but buyers and sellers are in balance, there is no pressure from one or the other side. That’s how the price stays in the same range. For every long trade, there has to be one short trade. What will happen if the price breaks out on the upside?

    Short-side traders will hurry to cover their short trades and start the rally. Before long-side traders start the rally. When uptrend is created, comes the trend-followers.

    Bottom line

    Indicators are important. They tell you what other market players are doing and can provide you to create your trading strategy. An open interest strategy can be used to recognize trading possibilities you might miss. It allows you quickly to enter and exit a trade at the best price. Many traders don’t use this profitable strategy because when they are looking at the whole open interest of an option, they cannot know if the option is sold or bought. 

    But they fail to catch really valuable information.

    Trading means to have all the valuable data before you enter or exit the position. It isn’t gambling. There are some trading patterns and more about some profitable you can read in the “Two Fold Formula” book. Our suggestion is – test it with the our preferred trading platform.

  • The Average Daily Trading Volume How to Calculate

    (Updated October 2021)

    A stock’s daily trading volume shows the number of shares that are traded per day. Traders have to calculate if the volume is high or low.

    The average daily trading volume represents an average number of stocks or other assets and securities traded in one single day. Also, it is an average number of stocks traded over a particular time frame. 

    To calculate this you will need to know the number of shares traded over a particular time, for example, 20 days. The calculation is quite simple, just divide the number of shares by the number of trading in a specified period. Daily volume is the total number of shares traded in one day. 

    Trading activity is connected to a stock’s liquidity. When we say the average daily trading volume of a stock is high, that means the stock is easy to trade and has very high liquidity. Hence, the average daily trading volume has a great impact on the stock price. For example, if trading volume is low, the stock is cheaper because there are not too many traders or investors ready to buy it. Some traders and investors favor higher average daily trading volume because the higher volume provides them to easily enter the position. When the stock has a low average trading volume it is more difficult to enter or exit the position at the price you want.

    How to calculate the average daily trading volume

    As you expected, it is quite simple. All you have to do is to add up trading volumes during the past days for a particular period and divide that number by the number of days you observe. It is usual to calculate ADTV (Average Daily Trading Volume) for 20 or 30 days but you can calculate it for any period if you like. For example, sum the average daily trading volumes for the last 30 days and divide it by 30. The number you will get is a 30-day average daily trading volume.

    Since the average daily trading volume has a great impact on the stock price it is important to know how many transactions were on a particular share. The same share can be traded many times, back and forth and the volume is counted on each trade, each transaction. For example, let’s say that 100 shares of a hypothetical company were purchased, and sold after a while, and re-purchased, and re-sold. What is the volume? We had 4 transactions on 100 shares, right? So, the volume in this particular case would be expressed as 400 shares, not 800 or 100. This is just a hypothetical example even though the same 100 shares could be traded many more times.

    How to find the volume on a chart?

    Thanks to existing trading platforms it is easy since each will display it. Just look at the bottom of the price chart and you’ll notice a vertical bar. That bar indicates a positive or negative change in quantity over the charting time period. That is the trading volume.
    For example (if you don’t like too much noise in your charts), you will use 10-minutes charts. Hence, the vertical bar will display you the trading volume for every 10-minutes interval. 

    Also, you will notice that these bars are displayed in two colors, red and green. Red will show you net selling volume, and green bars will let you know the net buying volume.
    You can measure the volume with a moving average, also. It will show you when the volume is approximately thin or heavy.

    Average Daily Trading Volume

    What is an average daily trading volume for a great stock?

    Are you looking for the $2 stock with an average daily volume of 90,000 shares per day? It won’t be easy. Sorry!

    The stocks that traded thinly are very risky and changeable. To put this simple, we have a limited number of shares in the market. Any large buying might influence the stock price skyrocketing. The same happens when traders and investors start to sell, the stock price will fall. Both scenarios are not beneficial for investors. So, you must be extremely careful when trading stocks with daily trading volume below 400.000 shares. You can be sure it is a thinly traded stock even if it is cheap as much as $2. The stocks with low prices carry higher risks. For example, penny stocks.

    Here we came to the dollar volume. While the daily trading volume shows how many shares traded per day, the dollar volume shows the value of the shares traded. To calculate this you have to multiply the daily trading volume by the price per share.

    For example, if our hypothetical company has a total trading volume of 300.000 shares at $2, what would be the dollar volume? The dollar volume would be $600.000. This is a good metric to uncover if some stock has sufficient liquidity to support a position.

    To decrease the risks, it is better to trade stocks with a minimum dollar volume in the range from $20 million to $25 million. Look at the institutional traders, they prefer a stock with daily dollar volume in the millions.

    Understanding Average Daily Trading Volume

    Average daily trading volume can rise or drop enormously. These changes explain how traders value the stock. When the average daily trading is low you have to look at that stock as extremely volatile. But, the opposite is with higher volume. Such stock is better to trade because it has smaller spreads and it is less volatile. To repeat, the stock with higher trading volume is less volatile because traders have to make many and many trades to influence the price. Also, when the average trading volume is high, trades are executed easily.

    This is a helpful tool if you want to analyze the price movement of any liquid stock. Increasing volume can verify the breakout. Hence, a decrease in volume means the breakout is going to fail.

    The trading volume is a very important measure.

    It will rise along with the stock price’s rise. So, you can use it to confirm the stock price changes, no matter if it goes up or down. When we notice that some stock is rising in volume but there are not enough traders to support that rise and push it more, the price will pullback. 

    Pullback with low volume may support the price finally move in the trend direction. How does it work? Let’s say the stock price is in the uptrend. So, it is normal the volume to rise along with a strong rising price. But if traders are not interested in that stock, the volume is low and the stock will pullback. In case the price begins to rise again, the volume will follow that rise. For smart traders, it is a good time to enter the position because they have confirmation of the uptrend from the price and the volume both. But be careful and do smart trading. If the volume goes a lot over average, that can unveil the maximum of the price progress. That usually means there will be no further rise in price. All interested in that stock already made as many trades as they wanted and there is no one more willing to push the stock price to go up further. That often causes price reversal. 

    Bottom line

    The average daily trading volume shows the entire amount of stocks that change hands during one trading day. This can be applied to shares, options contracts, indexes or the whole stock market. Daily volume is related to the period of time. It is very important to understand that when counting volume per day or any other period each transaction has to be counted once, meaning each buy/sell execution. To clarify this, if we have a situation in which one trader is selling 500 shares and the other one is buying them, we cannot say the volume is 1.000, it is 500. Anyway, this is an important metric that will show you if some stock is easy or difficult to trade.