Tag: trading

All trading related articles are found here. Educative, informative and written clearly.

Stock Market Bubble How to Recognize It

What is a stock market bubble? How a stock market bubble is created? What is the definition?

We are talking about a stock market bubble when the prices of stocks rise fast and a lot over the short period and suddenly start to drop also quickly. Usually, they are falling below the fair value.

A stock market bubble influences the market as a whole or a particular sector. A bubble happens when investors overvalue stocks. Investors can overestimate the value of the companies or trade without reasonable estimation of the value.

How does this thing work?

Let’s say investors are massively buying some particular stock. They become overly eager to buy. How does that affect the stock price? The stock price is going up. The traders notice the growing potential and believe that the stock price will rise more and they are also buying that stock with an aim to sell it at a higher price.

This trading cycle has nothing with the usual criteria related to trade. When this cycle lasts long enough it can extremely overvalue the stock or some other asset, generating a stock market bubble that will burst.

Because a stock market bubble is a cycle defined as speedy increase, followed by a decrease.

We would like to explain this in more detail. When more and more traders enter the market, believing that they also can profit and perhaps go on the double, but we have a limited supply of some stock, it isn’t unlimited. So, on one side we have an enormous number of traders willing to buy a stock, and on the other side is a limited number of particular stock they are interested in. The consequence is that the stock price will rocket. That sky-high price isn’t supported by the underlying value of the company or stock.

Finally, some traders realize that the growing trend is unsustainable and start selling off. Other investors start to follow that and catch on and start draining their stocks, in hopes to recover their investments. And here we come to the main point.

The declining market isn’t investors’ darling. The stock prices are dropping, traders who enter the market too late have losses, the stock market bubble bursts or in a better scenario, deflates.

Actually, we can easily say that behind the stock market bubbles lies a sort of herd mentality. Everyone wants a piece of high returns, it’s logical, right? Well, it continues with a downward run.

What causes it?

When eager investors are pushing the value of the stock, much over its proper value, we can say that we have a bubble. For example, the stock proper value is, let’s say $50 but investors boost it at $150. You can be sure the price will go back to its proper value, soon and extremely fast. The bubble will pop.

A good example is the dot-com bubble of 1999/2000. The markets were cut from reality. Investors accumulated dot-com stocks so wildly. How was it possible when they knew that a lot of these companies were worthless? They didn’t care.

That pushed the NASDAQ to over 5.000 points in a short period. That was the bubble and everything got apart very fast and painful.

One of the most famous market bubbles took place in the Netherlands (former Holland) during the early 1600s. It is the Dutch tulip bulb market bubble or ‘tulipmania’.

What happened?

The speculators pushed the value of tulip bulbs sky-high. The rarest tulip bulbs were worth six times more than the average yearly salary. Today, tulipmania is in use as a synonym for the traps due to extreme greed.

That can happen when someone follows some investor and notices how good it is and suddenly that one decides to do the same. But such copycats are not single individuals in the stock market. There are millions doing exactly the same thing. In a short time, everyone is plunging the money and the market reacts respectively by inflating prices. And eventually, the bubble will burst.

A stock market bubble as positive and negative feedback loops

Whatever has begun to shift stock prices up to become self-sustaining is a positive feedback loop. For example, investors hunting higher growth. When prices increase, investors are selling stocks. The others are buying them to profit on the growth. Someone will ask what is wrong with that. Well, new purchasings are driving the prices up higher and more investors are seeking those profits. The cycle is starting. And it is good but only when this positive feedback loop, as economists call this, comes as a reflection of reality. But when the feedback loop is based on fake data or questionable ideas it can be very dangerous. A great example is the Stock Market Crash of 1929. That was a time of blooming speculators in the markets. Speculators are trading stocks with borrowed money. The loan is paid from profit. When speculators have good trades they can make a fortune. In a different scenario, when they try to limit losses on debt, they can lose the shirt.

The stock prices will go down, the other investors will quickly sell with the same hopes to mitigate losses. The prices will go down further and create a “negative feedback loop” and poor market conditions will bloom. This is exactly what happens when the stock market bubble bursts. The stock prices are going down further as investors try to sell their stocks to cut losses.

Bottom line

As you can see, a stock market bubble happens when investors are buying stocks neglecting the value of the underlying asset. It is caused by a kind of optimism, almost irrationally, despite the rule of thumb: avoid impulsive trading.

The crucial nature of a stock market bubble is that trading can go in a direction that is not in your favor. Optimism can fade. Investors seeking higher profits easily can see their own disaster when the growth starts to slip. Why should they stay in positions any longer? They will not, of course. It is opposite, the selling off will start and the stock market bubble bursts. And it can do it for random reasons. Be careful, you can recognize a stock market bubble when everything is done. Only rare investors are able to anticipate it is coming. Well, that’s why they are successful and rich.

7th February 2020
UGAZ Stock and DGAZ Stock The Differences and Relations

The principal objective of UGAZ is to increase the daily performance of UNG by 3 times. The main objective of DGAZ is to produce profits from the losses in the UNG fund.

For everyone who wants to trade UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock the essential part is understanding the nature of them.

First of all, there is no dilemma should you invest in or trade UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock. There is no such thing as investing in UGAZ stock or DGAZ stock. Forget them if you are an investor, they are not for a long haul. The expense ratio is 1.65% so it is more likely that you will have zero chances to be profitable if you try to invest in them. Let’s say this way, according to historical data, over a period of one year they had a negative return of almost 56% and the negativity is increasing as times go by. For three years, for example, you can lose around 90% of your investment.

So, to summarize, UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock is for short-term trading.

Catch the trends

Trading UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock can turn into a profitable project since you can efficiently track the supply and demand. So, it isn’t hard to catch the trends and make a fortune. Maybe not quite a fortune but a lot of money for sure.

Remember one extremely important thing linked to UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock trading: there is an extremely high risk involved. No one will recommend you trade them but still, there are so many traders doing so.

How to trade UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock?

Okay, let’s look into the Natural Gas Sector. For that, we have to get into UNG, which is the United States Natural Gas Fund. It is an ETF composed to give investors exposure to natural gas and it is a highly volatile fund to trade. If you don’t have a stomach, forget the profit gained from this trading. Modern portfolio theory says that UNG is a fantastic solution for traders who are 100% sure that natural prices are able to rebound. Anyway, traders have to track the prices of natural gas, weather reports (that will give you a view into supply and demand). Don’t be confused!

Cold weather suggests an increased demand for natural gas, hence the rising prices.

Is UGAZ an ETF?

There is a lot to misunderstand energy ETFs and ETNs (exchange-traded notes).

The main energy ETFs are The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) and The United States Oil Fund (USO). And there are leveraged energy ETNs that tracking natural gas prices. These cover the VelocityShares 3X Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ) and VelocityShares 3X Invest Natural Gas ETN (DGAZ).

Let’s make clear what is an energy ETF. It couples investments in oil, natural gas, and alternative energy. So, it isn’t hard to diversify your energy investment portfolio.

Supply and demand have a great influence on crude and natural gas prices. Their prices tend to fall when the supply is bigger than demand. When we have more supply than demand in the market, the prices will rise.

Politics and crises also can affect these prices. Any uncertainty on the political field such as wars, governmental changes or even tensions will send the crude oil price higher.

We mentioned the weather. The crude oil and natural gas prices will go higher when temperatures could cause a spike in price. But also, when the over the warm periods, when we have an increasing demand for cooling, the price of natural gas can rise.

How to trade UGAZ and DGAZ

Both UGAZ and DGAZ strictly watch UNG stock.

The principal target of UGAZ is to increase the daily performance of UNG by 300% or 3 times. For example, if UNG price raises 1%, UGAZ will manifest a daily gain of 3%. It is better to trade UGAZ when there is bullish sentiment on UNG.

The main objective of DGAZ is to produce profits from the losses in the UNG fund. DGAZ increases the losses by 300% inversely. For example, if UNG price drops by 1%, DGAZ will bring you a profit of 3%. Trade DGAZ when there is a bearish sentiment on the UNG fund.

It is obvious that UGAZ and DGAZ have 3:1 leverage. Great, because that might boost your profit. But, keep in mind, that profit is in direct proportion with the risk.

Trading UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock means to pay attention to the UNG fund. It is the prime ETF that handles UGAZ and DGAZ as leveraged ETFs. That will provide you a view into the direction that this market is going. You have to evaluate should you trade UGAZ or DGAZ because they will give you a profit for opposite moves.

UNG is really a difficult exchange-traded fund.

Firstly, natural gas is a very volatile stock. Further, UNG isn’t directly related to natural gas in the physical sense of it.

Moreover, it doesn’t pay dividends. It uses future contracts and OTC exchanges to detect the natural gas price. Despite the fact that UNG may not be a good investment, UGAZ and DGAZ may be a good fit. How is that? As we said before, UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock are not suitable for long-term investing. And since you will hold your position for a few days or less, you are not interested in dividends and moreover, if the UNG fund has long-term decline, that will not affect the short-term volatility.

How all of this work?

ETNs provide tripled leverage for one trading day. Let’s say the natural gas price increases by 3%, UGAZ will grow by 9% and DGAZ inversely will drop by 9%. That’s why trading UGAZ and DGAZ stock is for short-term traders only. If you plan to invest in them for the long-term, your chances to make a profit are zero.

Think about UGAZ and DGAZ as up-gas and down-gas. When the natural gas price is going up, it will like UGAZ. Hence, when the price is going down, you will profit from trading DGAZ. Simple!

Real-life example

On January 30, DGAZ traded $285.20 which was $18.88 more from the prior trading day. DGAZ stock rose by 6.62%.

It rose from $267.50 to $285.20 and gained 3 days in a row. Will it succeed to continue gaining or take a break for the next few days? We’ll see. Maybe the best example of how this stock is volatile shows the fact that during the trading day the stock oscillated 8.08%. A day low was at $271.09, a day high was at $293.00. In six of the past 10 days, the price up by almost 44%. But volume fell by almost 20.000 shares and it can be a sign that something is going to change in the next days. Falling volume is always a signal of such occasions.

The price of natural gas went lower over the past 3 months, above the 5-year average. Increasing sellings are noticed in the futures market. The current data was not bearish, but the market reacted negatively.

That is how UGAZ stock and DGAZ stock work.

Can you short UGAZ stock?

You can always go short with the leveraged ETF pairs. A popular strategy over the years has been: short both sides of a paired leveraged ETF or ETN, and get the cash. The point is to short the long position on leveraged ETF and short leveraged ETF for the same sum. After that, just watch how volatility can benefit you.

For instance, if we examine imaginary the leveraged ETFs associated with natural gas and we see one is down almost 55% over the last 12 months, while the other has fallen 75%. A trader can short both sides for, let’s say $10,000 each, they easily could find themselves up to $12,900 off the $20,000 total short position. That’s a pretty good gain.

This is true most of the time. But you have to guess the right time frame. Of course, it is always a matter of how fat your account is. Everyone who can stay in the game long enough will be a winner. But it is a big challenge.

Shorting both sides isn’t an easy money way. Shorting makes sense only if you do it with a small part of your portfolio and you have a lot of cash. In any other case, it can be extremely dangerous when shorting both sides of a leveraged ETF.

31st January 2020
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) – All Calculation, Practices, and Mistakes

Volume Weighted Average Price is an indicator that takes into account both stock price and trade volume.

For all of the indicator followers, Volume Weighted Average Price is a very important indicator. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is quite simple to calculate. Traders are using Volume Weighted Average Price to check if the price at which they traded was good or maybe the price was not and they made a wrong trade. Also, intraday traders will use Volume Weighted Average Price as a kind of indicator. As a contrast from the moving average, VWAP provides traders to get price points of interest, to estimate relative strength, and recognize best entries and exits. They will buy when the price is above the VWAP.

What is the Volume Weighted Average price exactly?

Окаy, let’s say you have to compare two obviously good stocks. What you have to do? The answer is logical, you have to check its price trend and the trading volume. Checking the price is reasonable, but why would you check the volume?

Well, the volume is important because it shows how many takers the stock has. Who would like a stock with a few traders? No matter if you think the price is reasonable, you would like to know the volume. Therefore, the VWAP was designed to give traders an insight into the stock price and volume. These are very important info that provides every investor should make a decision whether to buy or not a particular stock.

The formula for calculating VWAP is

VWAP = (Cumulative (Price x Volume)) / (Cumulative Volume)

It will show you the average price that investors have paid for that stock during the trading day. So, you will know how other investors are positioned. Moreover, this measure is used by algos also. They use it to scale into positions. By using it, the algo can break up its position size into segments so as to reduce its impact on the market.

Well, the philosophy of how VWAP is used can lead to various types of trading systems.

VWAP calculation

It is done by charting software and reveals an overlay on the chart representing the calculations. This design is in the form of a line, similar to the moving average. How to calculate that line?

You have to determine your time frame, for example, 1 minute.

Find the typical price for all periods in the day. You can calculate the typical price when adding the high, low and close prices and that sum you have to divide by 3.

The formula is

(H+L+C)/3

H – high
L – low
C – close

It’s not finished yet. The number you got as a typical price now multiply by the volume for the chosen period.

TP x V

TP – typical price
V – volume

Now, you will need a cumulative TPV. You will attain this by constantly adding the most current TPV to the earlier values. The exception is the first period from obvious reasons, there was no prior value. This number is becoming larger as the day is coming to an end.

Calculate VWAP based on your data and use this formula:

cumulative TPV/cumulative volume

This will give you a volume-weighted average price for each period. Now, based on this data you can create the line that covers the price data on the chart.
It is better to use a spreadsheet to track the data in case you are doing this manually.

Time to buy according to VWAP

The best time to buy a stock is when the price goes above VWAP. It is a sign that buyers are in control and the majority of intraday positions are in profit. But if the stock price is below VWAP it means that traders have bad trades and losing money on them.

The Volume Weighted Average Price unlike other technical analysis tools, it is best adapted for intraday examination. It offers a good way to identify the underlying trend of an intraday. So, as you can see, when the stock price is above the VWAP, that means the trend is up. Contrary, when the stock price is below the VWAP, that means that the trend is down.

But remember, indicators are using past data to calculate the average. Every indicator starts to calculate at the open and stop to calculate at the close. And as you come closer to the end of the day, the indicator will have more lags. In intraday charts that use very short time frames, you have hundreds of periods in a single day.

Use Volume Weighted Average Price as trend confirmation

We have already said, VWAP provides traders info related to volume and price. But, it will help traders to confirm the appearance of trends that might be rising or going down over the day. For example, you see in the chart VWAP is rising despite the swings in the closing price. You can be sure that there are less sellers than buyers for that stock.

Thus, a rising VWAP indicates a bullish period, while a decreasing VWAP indicates a bearish period.

It can be a trade execution strategy

VWAP is helpful for institutional investors as they need to buy or sell a huge amount of shares but they want to avoid a spike in the volume. They don’t want to attract attention and influence the price.

For example, some institutional investors want to buy 10.000 shares of some companies. If such an investor sets the buy order of 10,000, the consequence will be a spike in the price in the moment of filling the order. So, when other investors recognize that big demand, they would also like to buy the same stock and at a higher price than the bid price of an institutional investor. Of course, traders would sell the stock back at a much higher price. That’s how the stock price rises in a particular case and dramatically increases the “ask” price of the stock. As we mentioned before, some software is able to divide these huge amounts of shares into smaller blocks and execute the trade and not let the closing prices go far from the VWAP. It is important to keep the closing price as much as possible near to the VWAP.

Bottom line

As we explained, VWAP is a lagging indicator. So, don’t try to use it for more than for one-day frame, because it will not show you the right trend. It is good for intraday trading. Also, when the stock or, in some cases, the overall market is bullish, you will not be able to find crossovers for the whole day. So, you will have poor data. By the way, VWAP isn’t able to give you much historical data.

The VWAP provides valuable information, more than the moving averages. Also, it isn’t a tool for a long term investor.

29th January 2020
Coffeehouse Portfolio The Lazy Portfolio

This is another in a series of lazy portfolios and one of the most popular. There is no single “coffeehouse portfolio” and an investor can adjust the basic version to own needs and investing goals.

This lazy portfolio, Coffeehouse portfolio, that financial advisor Bill Schultheis made famous in his book “The Coffeehouse Investor” is so simple.
The Coffeehouse portfolio is built of 7 funds. The basic version starts with the composition of 60/40 stock/bonds. The fixed income part is put into a bond fund (you have to choose). The 60% in stocks is divided equally between six index funds. That index funds are a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund, a small-cap value fund, a foreign fund, a REIT fund, and a large-cap fund.

“Investing should be dull,” said Nobel economist Paul Samuelson. Yes, some would say the same. But we have to be honest. This kind of portfolio maybe isn’t suitable for some Millennials experienced in investing. The Coffeehouse portfolio is too much dull. On the other hand, it is good. All you have to do is to set it up and live your lives.

And this discovery is amazing.

You can hear investors saying the same thing again and again: You need some simple but well-diversified portfolio. You don’t need more than several funds (4, 5, 9 whatever), but pay attention, as you are a novice, they have to be low-cost and able to create winners during both bear and bull markets.

That’s the point with lazy portfolios. There is no active trading, no market timing, and of course, no commissions. Moreover, they are simple. Well, someone may ask what happens with assets absent from such a portfolio. Forget it! You don’t care!

How to structure Coffeehouse portfolio

It is quite simple, as we said and here is one example:

10% Vanguard 500 Index
10% Vanguard Value Index
10% Vanguard Small-Cap Index
10% Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index
10% Vanguard REIT Index
10% Vanguard Total International Index
40% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index

Or

10% Large-Cap Stocks
10% Small-Cap Stocks
10% Large Value Stocks
10% Small Value Stocks
10% REITs
10% Total International Stocks
40% Bonds

As you can see in this portfolio, it is massive on the REITs, is slight on international stocks, and misses diversity on the fixed income side.

Roll the dice

Basically it is a “slice and dice” portfolio. So we can say it isn’t a “total market” example of the portfolio. A total-market portfolio consists of 1/3 equal parts of a total bond market index, total stock market index, and total international stock market index. But this “slice and dice” portfolio seeks to benefit from the higher returns. There is a higher risk when investing in value stocks and small stocks. And, as you can see, this portfolio has a massive collection of both small, and value stocks.

The 60% piece of the Coffeehouse portfolio represents 6 different funds that cover a different part of the market. That is a really good part of this portfolio since it is adding to the diversity.

The rest of the 40% of the portfolio is a total bond fund that includes the whole of the bond market.

It is recommended to rebalance the Coffeehouse portfolio every year. That secures that the asset allocation percentages are held at the accurate amounts. But it can be an individual decision for every investor, there are no rules what is the accurate amount.

Modifications of this lazy portfolio

As you can see this portfolio holds more bonds. It is more than some average investors would like to hold, especially if you are young. To make a comparison, the target-date funds, for instance, for Vanguard hold 10% bonds until investors are 45. We found some of the Trinity University studies and one shows that even investors in retirement should own 50/50 portfolios or even more aggressive.

Honestly, the Coffeehouse portfolio favors small-cap and value stocks. And do it with reason. Historically they have had higher returns and which means higher volatility too. But you can tweak the portfolio.

How to adjust the Coffeehouse portfolio

One method is to reduce your exposure to bonds (for example you could hold 10% of them) and split the rest of the portfolio equally into six funds. In this way, you’ll have a much more aggressive portfolio if you like that. But keep in mind, that is riskier at the same time and you must know how much risk you are able to handle.

Why not invest in the Coffeehouse portfolio

Firstly, for some investors, this portfolio hasn’t enough international exposure. It holds only 10% of Total International Stocks. Secondly, the 40% bond allocation will reduce your returns, you can be sure. Also, rebalancing can be expensive. There are too many funds to set them up.

For young investors, it isn’t so easy to just buy and hold. What if the prices are going up and down frequently? How to stay calm and do nothing? That’s the tricky part of any lazy portfolio.

Also, as we said above, the Coffeehouse portfolio can be too conservative for some investors. Where has the excitement of investing gone? Yes, you can adjust the portfolio as we described but still. Hence, to be honest, the one size that suits all methods sometimes don’t work for everyone. Especially if you prefer to be a more aggressive investor.

Why invest in this portfolio

Allocation on the value stocks is an advantage. The value stocks have outperformed growth stocks for 20%, according to historical data. Also, since this portfolio holds 20% small-cap stocks, it is good because they have outperformed large caps. Historically speaking, of course. By being a lazy portfolio and holds 40% in bonds, the Coffeehouse portfolio is less risky.

Bottom line

A creator of this portfolio is Bill Schultheis. He wrote a book about dullness investing. He had found that when you simplify your investment decisions, you end up with better returns.

His book “The Coffeehouse Investor” explains why investors should stop holding top-level stocks or mutual funds, and stop attempting to beat the stock market. Instead, keep stick to three clever principles:

1) There is no free lunch
2) Never put all eggs in just one basket
3) Save for rainy days

Sure, there is one more. Don’t pay too much attention to daily ups and downs in the stock market. It can ruin your life. But with investing in the principle buy-and-hold, with an annual rebalancing of your portfolio, it is more likely that you will build your wealth. There’s nothing wrong with adjusting the CoffeeHouse portfolio. It’s more important that you stick with your plan. The weighting of your allocations is less important but has to be reasonable. And a note for newbies, sometimes it is smarter to be a bit conservative especially in the stock market.

And here is a bit of statistics. Behavioral finance professors Brad Barber and Terry Odean discovered: “The more you trade the less you earn.” Buy-and-hold investors are doing better than traders. Active traders can lose a lot of money paying transaction costs and taxes.

The truth is that active traders can turn their portfolios over for more than 250% per year, but their returns can be just like 11% after paying tax. Opposite, buy-and-hold investors can turn their portfolios over a bit around 2%, making around 18% returns.

Finally, this is just one of the numerous approaches to investing. You are the one who has to choose. It’s all up to you.

28th January 2020
The Barbell Portfolio – Strategy Of A Balance

The barbell portfolio holds only short term and long term bonds and generates fixed income. A flattening yield curve situation is the best time to use this strategy, while a steepening curve is harmful to the strategy.

The barbell portfolio was invented by bond traders. The strategy means to hold safe short-term bonds and riskier long-term bonds. Put them together and that is the barbell portfolio. This also means that you are betting on both sides. But your barbell portfolio gives you protection since you have extremely safe short-term bonds. Yes, they will provide you with less profit but the profit is compensated from the other side of your portfolio – by long-term bonds that are extremely risky but provides a great profit.

Building a barbell portfolio, you will give your investments a balance that can run you through different circumstances, even extreme ones. The barbell portfolio is a very simple investment allocation actually. But the barbell portfolio is heavily weighted on two ends, just like a barbell. This concept is easy to understand and we want to explain it by using bonds. You can create this kind of portfolio with cash and stocks, also it can be a nice substitute to a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.

How to structure barbell portfolio

Let’s say the short-term bonds are risk-free. But you will not earn a lot by holding only them. To have a profit you must add something riskier to your portfolio. So, you can do it by holding long-term bonds. You see we are not considering mid-term bonds. There are long-term bonds to provide the yield to your portfolio.

Yes, they are the riskiest but also give the highest returns.

The idea of this kind of portfolio is to bypass and avoid the risk on one side of the barbell portfolio and to do it as much as possible but to put more risks with long-term bonds.

For every investor, the risks diversification is one of the most important parts. So how to do that with a barbell portfolio? For example, you can build it if one half of your portfolio is in bonds with 5 years maturities and the rest is in bonds with 15 years maturities. The point is to put weight on both ends of your portfolio. But it hasn’t to be equal weight. it can be turned in one direction or another. Of course, it depends on an investor’s vision and yield demands.

You have to pay attention to the bond barbell strategy. It isn’t a passive strategy. You will need to monitor short-term bonds and adjust them frequently. Also, the other end with long-term bonds should be adjusted from time to time because of their maturities shorten. Some investors will just add new bonds to replace the existing.

Barbell Investing

It is all about aiming to balance risk in your investment portfolio. For example, if you put bonds on the left end of the barbell portfolio you might be faced with rising interest rates. So, the value of the bonds could decline. In order to balance the weight, you can replace them or part of them with, for example, with dividend-paying stocks, or some other ETFs. This left side has a great role. It has to protect your wealth so the savvy investor will always choose low-volatile and low-risk assets for the left end.

The right side’s role in your barbell is to give you high profits. That is your financial goal. So you can add some aggressive stocks there instead of long-term bonds.

The barbell strategy is actually a simple investment allocation. Two ends, two sides of your portfolio are designed like opposite ends. What you have to do is to allocate your capital between safe and aggressive sides. Some experts recommend holding 80% treasury bonds and 20% stocks.

Some may ask why to diversify like this. Here is why. Let’s say you have invested 100% in different stocks. Yes, you have a diversified portfolio but you are, at the same time, 100% exposed to downside risk and you are at risk to lose all your capital invested.

But if you build a barbell portfolio with 80% bonds and 20% stocks your downside risk can arise on your risky part of the portfolio. That is 20% of stocks. But the point is that the majority of your portfolio will be in safe investments. Moreover, bonds will give you interest too.

Why use this strategy?

Because it can lower risks for investors. At the same time, it can provide exposure to higher yield bonds. Higher yields will compensate for the higher interest risk rate. So that is the first benefit. This strategy allows investors to have access to higher yield long-term bonds. The other benefit is that this strategy reduces risks because the short-term and long-term bonds’ returns favor being negatively correlated. In other words, when short-term bonds are doing well, the long-term bonds will have difficulties. When you hold bonds with different maturities it is more likely to have less deadfall risk. Let’s say when interest rates grow, the short term bonds are rolled over and reinvested. Of course, at a higher interest rate. That will compensate for the drop in the value of longer-term bonds. Opposite, when interest rates are lower, the value of the longer-term bonds will grow. Simple as that.

But remember, it’s so important to manage the weight of both ends. And to do it actively. The contrary will never produce long-term returns. If you notice that the assets on one end of your barbell portfolio somehow look expensive you have to change it and balance by leaning toward less expensive assets on the other end. Well, if the prices are expensive on both ends, you will need to reduce overall portfolio risk.

Is there any risk?

Yes, interest rate risk no matter do you hold both long term and short term bonds. If you buy the long-term bonds while the interest rates are low they may lose value quickly when the interest rates increase.

An additional risk of the barbell strategy comes from the investors’ limitation, this portfolio doesn’t include intermediate-term bonds so you will not have exposure to them. And we all know that intermediate-term bonds give better returns than short-term bonds. Yes, they are riskier but not too much. In comparison with long-term bonds, intermediate-term bonds will offer a bit lower returns. That is the downside of the barbell portfolio because you don’t have an opportunity to earn on these returns.

Well, the main risk of the barbell strategy lies in the longer-term bonds. They are more volatile than their short-term bonds. As we said, you will lose if rates rise and you choose to sell them prior to their maturity date. If you keep the bonds until the maturity date, the fluctuations will not influence negatively.

The worst scenario for the barbell is when long-term bond yields are rising faster than the yields on short-term bonds. That is the steepening yield curve. The bonds that make up the long end of the barbell drop in value. So, you may be forced to reinvest the profits of the lower end into low-yielding bonds, to balance the portfolio.

But the flattening yield curve, if yields on shorter-term bonds rise faster than the yields on longer-term bonds you will earn. That is an advantageous part of the barbell strategy.

Bottom line

The benefits of the barbell investing strategy are numerous. Firstly, you will have a better diversification of your investments. Also, you will have more potential to reach higher yields with less risk. If interest rates are falling all you have to do is to reinvest at lower rates when the maturity date of that bond comes. In case the rates are rising, you will have the chance to reinvest the profits of the shorter-term securities at a higher rate. Since the short-term bonds mature frequently, that will provide you the liquidity and adaptability to solve emergencies.

27th January 2020
Black Swan Investing Strategy To Reduce The Risk

Predicting when the next black swan event will happen is the mission impossible. But you can create a portfolio created to reduce the risks related to black swans.

Black Swan investing isn’t quite a strategy, it is more a trading philosophy. Actually, it is a method of predicting the occurrence of black swans. The black swan is an unplanned, unexpected event in the markets. Such events come as a sudden blow and may influence the market. But black swan also can have both a positive and negative impact and we are going to discuss them here.

An example of a negative black swan is the crisis of 2008.

Black Swan investing is a trading philosophy based completely on the probability that some accidental event will hit the markets. To avoid losses caused by a black swan, traders who are trading based on black swan strategy always are buying options, never sell. They never estimate will the market go in one or another direction, up or down, they are buying. These traders are actually betting on the chance the market will move both up and down.

Protection of investments

Behind that behavior is investors’ need for insurance for their portfolio to protect against another black swan event like it was financial crisis 2007-2009.

They are afraid of is losing money as they did at the time of the crash. But losing money is a risk that you have and can determine. The black swan is a risk that you can not determine or predict. How can you plan some sudden and hidden events ahead? Hence, we can’t hedge out the risk of secret and unknown events. All we can do is analyzing past events.

The black swan investing theory is based on an old saying that presumed black swans did not exist. Nassim Nicholas Taleb developed black swan theory but in his book The Black Swan he also recommended traders to fire their advisors claiming that they don’t know enough or know a bit about investing. Brave claim indeed. His belief in the incompetence of financial advisors is based on their disregard for Black Swans.

Is it possible to predict the next event?

It sounds like an impossible task because it is. As we said, how can you predict something unknown? But what you can do is to build a well-diversified portfolio to reduce the risks. Also, now you have this tool to determine when to exit your trade and avoid money losses. Moreover, you can determine when to do that in profit.

Yes, your portfolio can be structured to reduce risks linked to black swans.

Positive or negative black swans

Okay, you would like to know how to invest for positive or negative black swans. So, first of all, you have to understand how not to depend on catastrophic predictions. Let’s say, you invested with the belief that the stocks will grow forever. Also, you are pretty much sure that the financial crisis will never come, or the company will never bankrupt. Well, something has to be changed in your beliefs. The truth can be very painful for you at this very moment. Stocks will not rise all the time. Not even in the next 20 years or even five. They will go up and down.

The main point of black swan investing is to profit from unpredictability. But such events come suddenly, they are surprising, so how can we invest in it? We cannot do it directly. All we can do is to be ready for them, meaning to be exposed to such exceptional but extremely impactful events.

How to expose to a positive black swan

How to do that? How to take advantage?

If you follow Taleb’s definition it is quite clear what to do to positive events. If you can seek exposure to something you can not predict, then seek out exposure that is unrestricted to the upside. Well, there is no need to know will some event come or not, or when it is going to happen. All you have to do is to detect exposures that have the potential to blast if meet the proper conditions.

Exposure to positive black swans may sound a bit esoteric. Some investors that are practicing a black swan strategy like to say that it is necessary to build a portfolio that is able to “invite” positive events, amazing and unexpected. We don’t have material proof that it works.

Their idea is to give a portfolio a chance by setting up limited sums of money or scale it up. If it works, it’s okay. If it doesn’t work, just give up and risk later.

This stands in firm contrast to traditional investing advice.

Behind this idea

For any trader who wants to implement the black swan investing strategy, it is necessary to create a barbell portfolio. This kind of portfolio was created by bond traders. This strategy requires owing safe short-bonds on one side of the barbell, and on another side to balance the weight of investments, riskier long-dated bonds.

By building a barbell portfolio, you’ll have very safe investments on one end and notably risky investments on the other end. The safe investments virtually don’t have risk. They will survive even a black Swan. The risky side of the portfolio opens it up to the endless upside. This kind of portfolio advances despite any circumstances in the market. That’s according to Taleb.

Black Swan investing

Since black swan traders never sell and they are counting on the crash, they are buying out-of-the-money options.

But one question arises. Can any empirical evidence account for black swans? We are afraid the answer is no. So, we cannot predict the market. Why there are still people trying that? Because we all need progress in this field. Yes, we have algos, AIs, learning machines, automated trading, etc. But yet, no one can predict the market. And it is a great challenge. By fair, that moment isn’t so far from us. One day someone will find some formula for that. Frankly, how many people were able to predict all possibilities of the internet? A very small number. Today it is part of our daily lives.

Yes, we truly believe that one day, somewhere, someone will find a way to predict market movements. Meanwhile, there is no need to give up from investing because of the lack of unreachable knowledge. Just work with what you have and know. That would be enough. At last, it was enough for the past 200 years.

Pro tip: Develop an efficient portfolio on a demo account first; (1) Examine how well it guards you from random Black Swans (2) optimize (3) only then risk real funds.

Bottom line

Banks are a negative black swan business. The upside is inadequate and the downside is complete. The examples of positive black swan investing biotechnology stocks, venture capital, publishing, etc.

The venture investor that invested in Uber in its beginning was exposed to a positive black swan, but today would be more exposed to a negative black swan with the same investment.

The key principle in black swan investing is to find extremely aggressive as unreasonable as possible assets. Hence, when you find that chance, take it.

26th January 2020
Insider Trading Is It Legal At All?

Insider trading can be legal or illegal depending on if the information used is public.

By Guy Avtalyon

Insider trading means that someone buys or sells stock based on information that is not freely available to the public. An insider could be someone from the management or simply someone who has access to non-public information. Insider trading can be legal or illegal depending on if the trade is executed on the information that is available to the public or not.

To be honest, everyone likes inside information and rumors. The problem is that most of the time they are just useless gossip. Still, we are all seeking the inside information and have something that is unknown to the majority. If it is possible, to no one.

When it comes to trading, this method of playing based on inside information is seen as insider trading. And it can be legal. Well, in some cases.

What is insider trading

Insider trading is trading based on information that is not accessible to the public. In most cases it illegal but in some specific cases, it is perfectly legal.
Insider trading is illegal when info is received from the insider and traded by traders who received that info and do it before info becomes known to the public. Insider will always give you a hot tip. But is it trustworthy? How will you know that?

That is a crucial difference for insider trading. To make insider trading, the secret information being given must be issued by an insider.

How to recognize the right insider?

Such has access to important non-public information about a company. Usually, it is some from the high-level executives, that have almost all the information about the company’s operations. Well, not all of the high-level management recognize the fiduciary interest and put it ahead of its own. Also, an insider very often owns a big stake in the stock.

In insider trading, an insider can be a trader who acts based on inside info that is not public data.

A legal insider trading

That is a completely different story.

According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, insider trading can be legal but under some circumstances. For example when a CEO of some company purchases stock of the company he is obliged to report to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, legal insider trading is when workers exercise their stock options and buy shares of stock in the company that they work for.

How does illegal insider trading work?

Illegal insider trading is different than legal insider trading. But when it is in violation of the law?

For example, a friend of the CEO of a company heard that his friend could be accused of fraud soon. That info he uses to short shares of his friend’s company because he had the info about bad news that will occur in the future and that will cause the stock price to go down.

The other example is, let’s say, a board member of a company and woman. She knows that the merger is going to be declared in the following days and she assumes the company’s stock price will go up after that. What she is doing? She is buying more shares but not always in her name. Such can buy shares in her husband’s name or parents. That is illegal insider trading.

We are pointing only a few examples of illegal insider trading that may occur. Don’t do that, you may end up in prison.

Does insider selling suggest it’s time to sell?

Acts speak louder than words could ever do. Management is motivated to tell you why should you have to buy the shares of their company. But the insider will tell the true story about the company’s worth. A trend of selling or buying among insiders could give us a clue about the company’s future in the market.

The information that insiders are selling their stocks might give some benefits. Traders may use them to estimate where a stock’s price might go and how insiders price a stock since they have better insight. But remember all data must be public and available.

Anyway, be careful, it isn’t a precise formula. Think about the drawbacks too.

It will take you time and energy to find trends. Moreover, insiders are not always right. Don’t blindly believe in them because they might have some special reasons to sell or buy. And finally, you will get only a small part of large info and that may confuse you, so you may make a bad trade.

Where to find insider info

Speaking about the US stock markets, insiders are obliged to file SEC forms created particularly for insider stock trade reporting. But still, take your time to examine insider trades before you enter your buy or sell positions. Insiders’ information isn’t everything you need to make the right investment decision. You’ll need more.

The SEC made the EDGAR system to provide public access to the insiders’ activity. You can find it on the NASDAQ website. The point is to have the same data from a minimum of two insiders’ sources. Never rely only on one.

How to use insider information

Okay, your search gives you several reports on the company.

So, you can examine the data and find a trend. If your search of insider list displays buying actions, that should be a signal that the company’s management thinks the stock price will go up and want to profit from it as stockholders. But if you see that there is a lot of selling it is usually a sign that the stock price will go down. Insiders will always try to sell before stock prices drop. Anyway, it is only one info and you shouldn’t rely on just one. While you are looking for insider information try to read annual reports, statements, etc. Find other sources to support what you found as an insider trend. Then, you’ll be able to make a proper investment decision.

When you see the executives getting stock option grants and then selling a large part, you shouldn’t be worried. But if you see massive selling and without a visible cause, it’s time to think. Think because you have two options. One is to be a part of the crowd and sell your share or take advantage and buy a share at a bargain. And add to your portfolio to diversify it better.

Famous insider trading cases

The Wall Street Journal writer R. Foster Winans was sentenced to 18 months in prison in 1985 of giving information about stocks he was planning to write about. Two stockbrokers made about $690,000 thanks to his insider information. They were also sentenced.

Ivan Boesky paid $100 million to the Securities and Exchange Commission to compensate insider-trading charges that he made. He earned $50 million in illegal profits. Boesky pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 3½ years in prison in 1987.

Martha Stewart was sentenced. The problem was about her sale of ImClone stock based on a tip that she received from a broker at Merrill Lynch. She was sentenced to 10 months (prison and home confinement). Her stockbroker was also sentenced.

Also, a football player Mychal Kendricks was accused of insider trading after trading based on information he received from a friend. Friend? Yes, a friend who was a broker with Goldman Sachs.

And many others but don’t follow these examples, please. It’s too risky as you can see.

24th January 2020
Risks Of Investing In The Stock Market And Strategies to Avoid Them

Investing in stocks is a risky game. On some of them, you can have full or partial control.

Risks of Investing in the stock market is a necessary part of investing. If investors want great returns, it is necessary to take great risks. However, the greater risks will not guarantee you will have greater returns. So, additional risks will not always bring you huge returns. But if you are long-term-type investors, you must understand that there will be some periods of underperformance in the investments. And you have to be prepared for that and not panic. If you cannot handle your emotions while investing you are likely to have a smaller chance in the stock market. Taking a risk means to have a higher tolerance for risk. Well, if you are not comfortable with it, you will probably make lower returns. But one thing is in your favor – you will never make great losses.

Anyway, you must understand that there is a necessary trade-off between investment and risk. Greater returns are linked with risks of price changes.

So, it is crucial to decide what is your risk tolerance and you have to do so before you enter the stock market.

What do you want: to protect your initial capital or you are ready for a wild ride with all the ups and downs in the stock market to reach higher returns?
If you can take a low or zero portion of the risk, be prepared that your returns will also be very low. On the other hand, if some investment generates huge returns, think twice is there some high risk you cannot accept.

High-risk investments require to hold a position for a long time, not less than 5 years. Do you have a stomach for that? Why the time matter?

As an investor, you must have the capacity to hold it longer to give shorter-term issues time to fix themselves. But remember, higher levels of risks will not always result in high returns.

There are special risks which investors should be aware of.

What are the risks of investing in the stock market?

We will point on some of them. The risk can be a capital loss. Let’s say you picked up some stock of the company with suddenly poor performing and the market recognizes it as negative. The consequence is that stock price could drop, a lot under the price you paid for them. The stock may even end up worthless. Zero! In such a case, the company’s stock will not trade. Moreover, the company may be delisted.

Further, there is always volatility risk. Stocks are volatile assets, their price may shift significantly in price in a short time. And, also, there is an exceptional market risk influenced by external factors. In such circumstances, the whole market could decline and the stock prices will be affected too. Also, not the whole market has to decline but the sector could. For example, a specific sector may experience downturns. Well, while some will catch the losses but at the same time, such periods are a great chance to buy stocks at a lower price. You see, the stock market is a zero-sum game. You can profit only when some others lose.

Also, the risks of investing in the stock market could come from the nature of the stock. To be honest, the stock price is extremely sensitive to bad news or investors’ sentiment toward some companies. For example, the company issued a poor earnings report or published management changes. The investors may disagree with that and could start selling the stocks.

Very specific risks of investing in the stock market may appear if you try to sell or buy stocks at the wrong time. You must have the right entry but more important, you must have a great exit. The last is the hardest part of the stock market but doesn’t have to be. Check HERE.

As we said, these are just a few risks you can meet while investing in the stock market. The crucial part is to understand what kind of risks you may have with your investments and how you can handle them.

Strategies to avoid risks of investing

Frankly, it’s impossible to entirely avoid risks. What you as an investor can do is put them under control. Actually, you can control your exposure to risks to the agreeable level. The risk you can handle and want to take. For that to do you have to know exactly what are you investing in and identify the possible issues all of these before entering the market and buying a stock. When you identify the risks involved you’ll be able to handle them.

How to manage the risks?

Firstly, define your investment goals, risk tolerance, and limitations, and plan according to what you found. Invest only in a sector that carries a lower risk than you are prepared to take. Go below your possibilities when it comes to risks.

The other solution is a diversified investment portfolio. It will give you good support. Your investment portfolio must contain several different assets. Spread your investments on bonds, utilities, mutual funds, cash, along with the stocks. Never put your whole capital into one single investment.

Combine them, long-term investment, short-term, but be careful about changes in your fundamental investment.

Also, a good decision could be to add derivatives to your portfolio. You can use them as a hedge against the risk. For example, the stock price is dropping, instead of selling them you can avoid losses by shorting futures. Of course, you have to choose futures of underlying assets that match your holdings. The hard part here is the value of futures compared to your stock portfolio. Exchange-traded futures have standard sizes of the contract. Hence, sometimes they will not give you a perfect hedge and you can over-hedge or under-hedge your stocks.

The other stock market risk management possibilities

You can also adopt a maximum portfolio drawdown rule. What does it mean? You have to set limits to the size of the drop in your portfolio value you can allow. In other words, determine how much of your portfolio you can bear to lose. This will decrease your personal ability to make emotional changes at the wrong time.

Keep your focus on stock price, and the value of an investment. Of course, plan ahead. The valuation is actually the heart of long term risk. Smart investors may have the advantage of volatility if they use tactical asset allocation. Follow their example. That will give you a chance to buy more assets when the prices are low but also, to hold fewer stocks when the prices are expensive.

Historical data shows stocks purchased while valuations are low, provide higher returns in the long run. Contrary, buying while valuation is expensive, generates the returns below average.

Bottom line

Risks of investing are part of being in the stock market. Sometimes, you will need to take bigger risks to reach your goals.
Learn the risks of investing in the stock market and do your homework. Make choices that will help you meet your investing plans.
Examine the risk of your investments from time to time. You have to know they still satisfy your risk tolerance.
Once some phrase appeared, we’ll paraphrase it: Be willing for the best, but act like the worst is coming soon.
You must be able to shift fast if suddenly something wrong appears. And, never give up!

13th January 2020
Value Investing Is Coming Back

Value stocks have underperformed since the beginning of 2007. But Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley claim that they have great potential.

Value investing is coming back according to data from the last autumn. This granddaddy of all investment types was set up in the first half of the 20th century and it is still actual.

For example last year, value investing has gotten fired by a typical value sector, energy. Last September made value investors satisfied, as returns of winners among cheap stocks outperformed big companies by a wide margin. The value-stock rally was exciting, unexpected, and fabulous. The past 10 years weren’t good for value investing. Actually, the value stocks were underperformed the growth stocks. They had weaker performances than it was the case with growth stocks. Moreover, some fund managers didn’t want to invest in utilities. What a great mistake! Utilities are the value stocks backbone. Their explanation was the value stocks are too expensive. Really? The fact is that utilities had a great performance last year and those managers suffered in a loss.

Why value investing is still a good opportunity?

Historically, they beat Grand Depression, played well during recessions, and inflation periods. Moreover, growth stocks have not become more profitable. So, the value stocks should finally be better. The reason is simple. They are unfairly cheaper. And that’s the point of value investing – finding under-appreciated stocks trading at low prices.

The stock market analysts found that stocks traded with low P/E and P/B ratios can easily beat the wider market. This opinion is supported by the facts.

A historical outlook

At the time of the financial crisis in August 2007, the S&P 500 index has returned 175%. The total return of value stocks in the US market was 120%. The return of growth stocks was fantastic 235%. Let’s go in the past more. Almost 20 years ago, value investors were devastated. For example, in 1999 and 2000 were so bad years for the value investing that some value investors had to step out of the market and retired.

But let’s stay for a while in 2007 and analyze growth investing deeper. What did happen?

That growth-strategy outperformance ended with the fall of the dot-com bubble. Value stocks came out of favor after the 2007 Global Financial crisis. On the other hand, growth stocks are performing remarkably well. Value stocks became unfairly cheap. You can notice that investors are expecting this global trend to continue since the global economic growth is slow. So, value stocks are trading at a discount compared to its more expensive growth peers.

But, is this discount a reason to invest in value stocks? It looks like that because value investing builds up. Slow economic growth caused value stocks to continue to produce stable free-cash flows. Yes, their businesses have slowed, but not damaged. At the same time, some of the growth stocks become extremely expensive. Moreover, the risk of failure in growth stock investing during slow economic conditions has grown.

Value Investing continues to make the headlines and not only in the US but also in Europe. We all can witness an increased number of headlines and publications, most recently, on the coming death of value investing. But now, something has changed.

Value investing is not dead

Timing the market seems to be difficult for investors. The intraday volatility grew over the last year, therefore, investors prefer not to bet as it will hurt long term goals. But this situation is beneficial for value. The value stocks start to outperform.

That will be a major market change. Value stocks’ years-long downtrend begins to turn. For some, it may seem a bit strange because investors in more cases neglect bargains. Everyone is trying to catch the major winners, famous companies, expensive stocks. They prefer to overpay some stock because of excitement. Oh, how wrong they are! But as we said, value stock investing is coming back.

Firstly, value stocks are cheap.

Value investing is the main principle for equity managers. There is long-term potency to buying cheap stocks over expensive growth stocks. Value investing was attractive over the entire history. Why shouldn’t it continue?
No one could say value investing is dead.

Goldman Sachs predicts a new life for value investing

Value investing has been decayed after years of underperformance. But Goldman Sachs says there’s still great growth possibilities in this classic factor strategy. And here are some reasons behind.

Value stocks will come back in favor very soon.

David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist explained that during the last 9 years the difference in valuation of expensive and cheap stocks was wider than ever.

Kostin said: “A wide distribution of price-to-earnings multiples has historically presaged strong value returns. However, a rotation into value stocks would require a sustained improvement in investor economic growth expectations, potentially driven by global monetary policy easing.”

The renaissance is coming

Value investing has gone out of favor particularly because the economic expansion gets stretched longer. Value brands continue to falter due to modest GDP.

But this course could start to change for value stocks. In the US an easier monetary policy from the Federal Reserve could increase growth expectations. Also, a rate cut could support the economy additionally. Bankers announced that possibility. Also, we already saw signs of resilience in US value stocks last September. Analysts predict that value stocks could finally enjoy a rebirth in 2020. Value investing means buying stocks that are trading below their value in the hopes of notable profit when the company comes into favor.

By default, value stocks have underperformed since the financial crisis. The investors have shifted into more energetic growth stocks, for example into technology. But last autumn, growth stocks were trading at high valuations and they became too expensive. In the same period, value stocks have shown important strength.

From October last year, the Russell 3000 Value index has dropped 2.4%, and the Russell 3000 Growth index has experienced a worrying 7.1% reversal.

Yes, growth stocks had a bounce, and outperformed value stocks. But there is some rule pointed by Morgan Stanley’s analysts. The markets are in the process of a regime change. That means the investors’ willingness to buy growth stocks will decrease as interest rates rise.

Goldman’s High Sharpe ratio

For investors assured on value stocks comeback, Goldman has selected value stocks with “a quality overlay.” Do you understand what does it mean?

These stocks could easily generate three times bigger returns than the average S&P 500 company with similar volatility. It is Goldman’s Sharpe ratio basket composed of 50 S&P 500 stocks with the highest ratios. This ratio measures a stock’s performance related to its volatility.

Goldman named the stocks with the highest earnings-related upside to consensus target prices. That are Qualcomm, Western Digital, Marathon Petroleum, Halliburton, Facebook, and Salesforce.

Bottom line

Many of the world’s most successful investors hold value stocks. They are buying cheap value stocks and benefit as the companies manage to work better.

For this to work, the stock has to stay cheap, so the company spends money on tremendous dividends and buybacks. The other option is the company be re-valued at a more relevant valuation, meaning more expensive. That is happening when the market recognizes the previous mistake in valuation.

For example, take a look at Altria (MO).

When the evidence about how toxic smoking is, appears to the public and more and more people stopped to smoke, investors had a feeling that cigarette producers will have a problem, the stock valuation was low. Well, something different happened to the company. The fundamentals remained strong. These stocks had good returns and still have.

How is this possible?

The stocks had higher dividend yields and investors reinvesting their dividends. Very good play. Tobacco companies also reinvested. They were buying back their cheap stocks and increased their earnings-per-share and dividend-per-share.

Smart investors know that value stocks can outperform most other factors. Some of the cheapest stocks in the market today are banks, oil companies, and so on. Keep it in mind.

So is value investing coming back? Do we really need to think better what the definition of value is?

12th January 2020
Stocks Reached New Records in the First Five Days This Year

Stocks rose in the first five trading days in January. There is an old tale of the January Effect but is that true or myth?

Stocks reached new records in the first five days of this year. And when stocks play well in the first several sessions in some years like it is in this one, investors like to recall the “first five days” rule. The point is that this rule is, therefore, able to predict the market is often up at year-end. But is this true?

Stock Trader’s Almanac, which analyzes the market phenomenon since 1950, discovered that if the first five days have a good track record it is a good prediction for the whole year meaning it will be well in the stock market.

Actually, it is an old Wall Street “first five days in January” indicator and as we know the brokers are superstitious. They believe if the stock market during the first 5 days of the year reaches record, that represents the potential for the strong performance in the given year.
So, stocks are sending a bullish signal for this year, according to that old indicator. Well, it is a good way of pumping stocks. Bulls in the market do that.

Will the whole year be like this?

But is this a reasonable way to make predictions for the whole year? We think it is an absurd way to estimate valuations.
Yes, stocks reached new records but if you take a serious look at the indicator you will find some drawbacks. Frankly, stocks are overvalued more than ever.

The stocks reached new records

Yes, in the first five days in 2020 but few days will last forever and maybe it’s time to consult the historical data just to compare what could happen next.

According to Dow Jones, historical data shows that the S&P 500 index has completed the year in the same trend as it started it in 82% of presidential-election years. It occurred from 1950 to today every time. In the first 5 days of 2020, the S&P 500 rose 0.7% and if the mentioned historical pattern is correct that should suggest that this year will finish with higher gains.

But be serious. We will need a deeper look at this indicator and on what it shows. Otherwise, you can easily read your horoscope (pay attention to the “sex” section better than “finance”) it will make more sense.

The ‘first five days of January’ indicator

January in the stock market has a strong influence on predicting the trend of the stock market for the rest of the year. The January Effect occurs when investors’ selling off their losing positions at the end of the prior year to realize the tax losses. Usually, these stocks are at a discount during January. And what we have there? Bargain hunters! They step in with their buying pressure in the market.

Statistics show when the S&P 500 rise in the first five trading days, there is around 86% possibility that the stock market will rise in that year. But this indicator isn’t very reliable due to the fact that we cannot find what happens when the gains in the first 5 days in January are below expected or in comparison to previous January or whatever. All we have is data for periods when the January Effect is triggered. But markets exist even without the January Effect. Even more, the markets exist even beyond January.

With a little help of stats, we can see that this effect had good predictions in 31 out of the past 36 years. Stocks reached new records in the first five days of 5 exceptions, 4 were war years and one was a flat market.

So, this was a confirmation of the January Effect.

Statistical answer as confirmation of something different

Let’s use more current data and divide the past 34 years into two sections separated, from 1984 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2017.

Let’s observe the period from 2001 to 2017. Data shows that, for example, the December effect produced an average return of 2.62% or a return of 36.5% during the observed years. But if you take a look at January for the same period, you will find poorer results. The average returns in that month were at 2.48% or 34% pre the whole year.

This seems to be a strong approval for the January effect. Nevertheless, whoever tried to use the January effect, and bought an S&P 500 index fund on January 1 and sold it on January 31, and kept cash for the rest of the year and did it in the next years to the end of 2017 made losses of 0.84% per year.

Stocks reached new records but ignore the January effect.

The using the January effect can be dangerous. This phenomenon is based on limited data and adjustments for confirmation. So, you shouldn’t believe that every time when the stocks reached new records in the first five days of the year were great gains in the market.

The conclusion about the January Effect came from small samples. So, it has low statistical reliability if it has at all. You cannot make a conclusion based on limited data. Yes, some financial press reports will try to assure you how these “five days effect” is important and you will find a lot of catchy titles but it’s fishing and fake news also.

Even the month of January was great for the stocks, what about the other months? If it is the only one-month effect what are you going to do with your investment over the rest of 11 months? Would you make decisions based on superstitions? Cash-out? We don’t think it is a smart investment strategy.

Common sense tells us something different. This isn’t a hypothetical situation, this is reality. Try to figure out why this phenomenon isn’t part of any extremely advanced computer software? Some software, and even not so sophisticated, will be able to identify the phenomenon and profit on it.

The reason is obvious. There is no unusual market’s phenomenons, that’s nonsense. If there is any phenomenon that is simple to be explained to the inexperienced trader or investor you can be sure it isn’t real. It is superstition.

Bottom line

This was another old tale to neglect, just like many others. Who can really believe that the first 5 trading days in January could predict the stock market’s direction for the full year? Yes, this old “indicator” gets much attention every year. As we said, the bulls are trumpeting it right now.

But nothing is that easy, especially the stock market.

If you have a problem to accept all of this, examine what did happen over the last 40 years. You will find that this pattern was a reversal. The fact is, since the 1970s every time when the Dow was down during that mythical period of 5 days in January, the whole year had higher gains.

To be said, any investor who admits the extraordinary influence of this superstition has a lack of knowledge and self-confidence. On the other hand, newspapers and financial reports enjoy cheating people when insisting on this.

We would like to point one thing at the end. The words written above doesn’t mean the stock market will not rise this year. It can do it very well and produce great gains, but what does it have with “First Five Days of January”?

Nothing!

10th January 2020