Tag: investments

  • Cyclical Or Non-Cyclical Stocks – Where To Invest During A Recession

    Cyclical Or Non-Cyclical Stocks – Where To Invest During A Recession

    Cyclical Or Non-Cyclical Stocks - Where To Invest During A Recession
    When we ask ourselves what is a better choice during a recession, cyclical or non-cyclical stocks we have to know, as first, the differences between them.

    A recession is not the time to make an experiment with risks on your investments, so why dilemma cyclical or non-cyclical stocks? Well, it isn’t a dilemma for most people. The crucial aspect of an investment strategy during the recession should be to play it safe. This means no one should take the big risks at uncertain times but should find the companies with stable cash flow and low debt. The terms cyclical or non-cyclical show how much a share price is related to the changes in the economy. You, as an investor, cannot control the cycles of the economy, but you can adjust your investment strategy but you first have to understand how the whole economy is connected to your investments.

    What are cyclical stocks?

    Cyclical stocks have a straight correlation to the economy. 

    Cyclical stocks represent companies that are very favorable during the times when the economy is doing well. For example, carmakers, restaurants, branded wear makers, travel, construction are that kind of companies. But when times are difficult almost everyone will cut spendings on these products and services. When people stop buying these products, the companies’ revenues will fall for sure. Also, their stock price will fall. If there is a long downturn in the economy, the company will bankrupt or go out of the business.

    Having this in mind, you should avoid cyclical stocks when the uncertainty is present in the market or in the economy. For example, during uncertain times such as a recession, you shouldn’t invest in companies that are extremely leveraged or unsafe.

    Cyclical goods are not essential things. You are spending money on them less frequently. Your spendings are maybe determined by the season of the year, the current financial situation, and many other factors that can determine when and why you would buy these products and services. They are in the first place on your stop-to-buy list. 

    The cyclical stock’s prices are affected by economic cycles, for example, recession and recovery. Hence, they will grow and drop depending on shifts in the economic cycle. Very often you can predict these changes and as a responsible investor you will sell or buy the cyclical stock. For instance, furniture manufactures. In periods when the economy is doing well, everyone would like to remodel the house and change the furniture. But when a downturn is in the economy, who will care about buying the new furniture? The buying will drop, hence the stock price will drop along with lower demand.

    To know what stock to choose, cyclical or non-cyclical stocks, we also have to know how the non-cyclical stocks perform.

    What are non-cyclical stocks?

    Non-cyclical stocks generally outperform the market when economic growth decreases. They are profitable no matter what are the trends in the economy. These companies are producing services and goods that we’ll always need. For example, utilities: water, electricity, gas. That is something we will need in any economic condition. These stocks are also called defensive stocks. The reason behind – they can be used to defend the investment portfolio against the consequences of economic downturns. It is always good to invest in these stocks when bad days come. In case of a recession they are safe-haven investments. 

    For example, toothpaste, shampoo, soap, and detergent. How can we reduce them? There is no way. Who can wait a year or two to wash the dishes? 

    We already mentioned utilities. These companies are a great example of non-cyclical stocks. We need energy, electricity, water for us and our families. Because of that utility companies increase and do not slip dramatically in any economic circumstances. 

    The disadvantage of these stocks is that they will never produce huge returns even when the economy is expanding and growing. They are safe investments but their price will never skyrocket or it could happen but rare.

    Investing in non-cyclical stocks is a good strategy to avoid losses during the recession. So, cyclical or non-cyclical stocks, where to invest during a recession?

    Investment strategy with a mix of stocks

    You have several ways to add both cyclical or non-cyclical stocks to your investment portfolio. That can be a mix of bonds, cash, and stocks, but also the mix of growth stocks and value stocks. Another strategy is to add cyclical and non-cyclical stocks to offset changing business cycles. 

    When the cyclical stock drops in value you’ll have a great defense in non-cyclical stocks. During a downturn economy, cyclical stocks are less valuable and their price starts to move very fast. The truth is that it is moving up and down almost at the same speed and dramatically, within the economic cycle. Non-cyclical stocks never move that fast and radical. We described the fundamental differences but to repeat, non-cyclical stocks are practically immune to economic changes. That is their great advantage. Returns are something else. They are not huge, but these stocks will keep your nose above the water during the recession.  

    When the markets are growing, a good investment strategy could be to buy cyclical stocks at the beginning of the economic increase. But when you have some assumptions or signals that the recession is possible to come, sell them just before it happens. Sadly, trying to predict a future recession is a lost battle. That is the reason to hold a mix of cyclical and non-cyclical stocks in your portfolio. Why should we even ask or have a dilemma with cyclical or non-cyclical stocks when we should hold them both in our portfolios.

    That way,  we can provide a well-position to benefit when the economy is expanding. But, at the same time, we will have a shield when the economy takes a turn for the worse.

    Where to find cyclical stocks?

    Since it isn’t possible to name every cyclical industry (there is not enough room here) we can give you some clues where to look at.

    For example, hotels, restaurants, carmakers, airlines, banks. They all have something in common. In periods of strong economies, they are all expanding. People are traveling, need a place for vacations, they want to stay at the hotels, they would like to buy a new car, or rather want to eat in restaurants than at their homes. Also, some high-tech stocks can be cyclical. People really want them in prosperous times. Companies tend to invest money in developing new technology, new products. Startups are growing, also. 

    Not to forget banks. They are also a good example of cyclical stocks during the growing economy.

    Where to find non-cyclical stocks?

    These defensive stocks can be found among retailers, utilities. Consumer staples stocks are one of them, also. These stocks have modest growth but they are considered safe investments, that provide stable profits, and are defensive, and dividend-paying stocks. The most important role is that they can outperform the down markets.

    These non-cycling companies work in a strong sector,  their products are always in demand. We cannot cut our needs for them. They are able to survive great challenges and economic cycles. That’s why they are so much attractive especially during the recession if you add them as defensive stocks to your portfolio.

    Strategies to choose the stocks

    It is the same as any investing strategy. You have two ways: the top-down or the bottom-up strategy.

    The top-down strategy means to observe the economy as a mass and select stocks that will perform well during specific economic conditions. When applying this strategy you must be sure you are well informed about the macroeconomy, that you understand different sectors. You have to recognize how a particular industry will perform during the various business cycles, also when the stock price will rise when it will drop.

    For both cyclical or non-cyclical stocks, this top-down strategy is the most suitable.

    The bottom-up strategy means you have to look at the stock alone and to decide what stock to buy or sell.

    This strategy is a good one when choosing cyclical or non-cyclical stocks only when they are in correlation, meaning the stocks are moving synchronized. For example, the jewelry manufacturer will have a decline in the value during the recession. People will stop buying jewelry. But at the same time, the stock of the electricity provider will perform well. So, keep in mind that you have to have both in your portfolio. 

    Bottom line

    There is no need to ask yourselves what stocks to add to your portfolio, cyclical or non-cyclical stocks. You must hold both of them if you want huge returns and protection during market downturns. 

    During economic growth cyclical stocks will increase more. Hence, during recessions, people will decrease their spending and will squeeze the budgets. They will continue to buy and spend money only on the goods they really need. So, the companies that have these products will bloom.

  • Concentrated Stock Positions Are Risky

    Concentrated Stock Positions Are Risky

    Concentrated Stock Positions Are Risky
    The worst-case scenario of holding a concentrated stock position is that the chosen company can bankrupt and the stock value drops to zero.

    Concentrated stock positions occur when you as an investor own shares of one stock in a big percentage of your portfolio. So your capital is concentrated in a single position. How big is that percentage? It depends on the size of your portfolio and the volatility of the stock. But concentrated stock positions commonly occur when that stock represents 10% or more of your overall portfolio. 

    The modern theory says that it can be any position size that may hurt your investment plan. So, we won’t be wrong if we say that concentrated stock positions are any portion in one single stock in your portfolio that have a major influence on your overall portfolio no matter if it is 5% or 55%. Generally, it is a position size that can destroy your financial goals.

    But nothing is so bad as it looks at first glance. Many people created their wealth by holding a single stock. So many families built a fortune in this way. The value of that stock grew heavily over time and the members of such a family inherit these concentrated stock positions, a large one that consists of just one stock.

    Don’t matter how the concentrated stock positions are earned, they always represent an unbalanced allocation of investments. Since the holder of such a portfolio needs to reduce risk, it is essential to understand it and maintain it properly. There are several strategies very suitable for handling concentrated stock positions.

    Strategies for handling concentrated stock positions 

    Have you ever heard a saying: “Concentrated wealth makes people wealthy, but diversified wealth keeps them wealthy.” It’s kind of credo among investors. Concentrated stock positions are challenging for managing. They have great risk potential included. So for that to be done, the investor needs a proper strategy.

    One of the most common strategies is selling the part of these concentrated stock positions or the whole holding on it. To be honest, that is the simplest way to reduce the concentration on the stock. 

    But there are some that may occur, for example, the capital gains tax is connected with selling. In order to decrease the tax, you don’t need to sell the whole position. Sell it in the parts. For instance, you can define an amount and sell one by one quarterly. Of course, you can choose a different time frame but the goal will stay the same, to reduce the concentrated stock position since you would like to reduce the exposure also. Depending on the position’s value it may take a few years unless the whole process is done. Some experts claim that 3 to 5 years is the optimal time frame for that.

    So you have two choices with this strategy: to sell the stock immediately or in portions over time.

    Hedge the position – a strategy for handling concentrated stock positions

    Those are actually two strategies but we’ll put them in one because they are connected. This is a bit of a complicated strategy but an effective one. Everyone wants to protect the owned stock against drops. You can do it by using options. So, think about the buying of put options as a kind of insurance against the potential losses in your stock. When you buy a protective put option, you’ll have the right to sell your stock, the whole or part of it, at a predetermined price. Don’t be worried if the stock price increases above the predetermined price. Your option will expire worthlessly and you’ll still hold your stock.

    This strategy is quite good if you need short-term protection, so think twice are you willing to use it because over the long run this strategy may cost you a lot.

    Also, you may sell covered call options. The strike price should be above the current market price. That will give you an extra income but the smallest protection against total loss if the stock price decreases significantly. Moreover, you’ll not benefit from price appreciation if you use covered call options as a strategy to handle concentrated stock positions. 

    Maybe you can use covered call options as a part of a well-organized selling process based on the market movements. Meanwhile, you get paid the premium.

    Diversifying

    It doesn’t mean you’ll make some small adjustments to your portfolios. Your main goal is to reduce the volatility that a concentrated position generates. And you cannot do that randomly, this diversification has to be exact.

    As we said, you can sell this large position at once but there are some problems that may arise. The most important is that you can reduce the value of your overall portfolio by doing so. For example, if you sell the whole position at once that could cause the stock price to drop in value. 

    Sometimes such a decision can be emotionally difficult. So, a staged sale can be a way to avoid emotional reactions when selling a large position. You can do this if you determine the number of shares of the stock you want to sell by a particular date.

    For example, you want to sell 21,000 shares of the stock over the next 21 months. And you decide to sell shares every quarter. There will be seven sales during this period, right? At the end of each quarter, you are selling 3,000 shares. This will not disturb you a lot, you have a schedule, your emotions will be under control, you don’t even have to think about the market fluctuation.

    Use the exchange fund 

    This method is useful when you find other investors in the same situation with concentrated stock positions and who want to diversify as you do. What investors have to do? What are their options? They can join their shares into a partnership where each investor gets a proportional share of that exchange fund. Since the stocks are not the same, each shareholder will have a portfolio of different stocks. That will provide diversification. The additional advantage of this method is that it provides the deferral of taxes. 

    The straightforward approach to diversify the concentrated stock positions

    It is rebalancing with a completion fund. We describe it above. It is simply selling smaller parts of your position over time. You can use the money you got to buy some other asset and have a more diversified portfolio. That’s how a completion fund operates. But as a difference from exchange funds, you are in control of your stock.

    For example, you own $10 million worth stock, and you want to reduce the exposure to this stock. But you would rather sell part of your position because if you sell $10 million in one transaction the taxes you have to pay would be expensive. So, you prefer to sell  20% of the position every 6 months, and use that money to diversify into other assets. Over time you’ll have a fully diversified portfolio adjusted to your risk tolerance. 

    Bottom line

    Some wealth transfer strategies could benefit you. For example, family gifting strategies, and charity gifting strategies such as direct gifts, foundation, or trusts.

    The most important is to have peace of mind. Holding such a great but only one stock that generated money for many generations is a great responsibility. But that kind of portfolio is very volatile and risky. So you have to be smart and find the concentrated stock positions exit strategy suitable for your circumstances and goals. Your chosen strategy has to increase your overall wealth. 

    These strategies can reduce risks, reduce the tax of reducing the position. They are worth seeking. If you still are not sure which strategy to choose, find a professional financial advisor.

  • The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing

    The Danger of Diversification In Investing
    Diversification has to be a well thought out step for investors. It can boost growth and lead you to wealth. But if doing improperly, it can cause costly failures.

    Investors infrequently pay attention to the danger of diversification. All taught that the idea of diversification is to reduce the portfolio’s risk. And nothing is wrong with that. Some amount of diversification is important or investors will take too much risk that will never be neutralized for.
    But sometimes too much can be very bad. It is the same with the diversification of the portfolio if it is too diversified. And we will explain to you the danger of diversification. 

    So, in the first place, the danger of diversification may come when the diversification is done improperly but also if the investment portfolio is over-diversified. But let’s go step by step through all examples of the danger of diversification because they can be very costly. They can ruin the whole investment and leave you with your empty hands.

    The danger of diversification in investing

    Portfolio without focus

    No one will tell you that the danger of diversification is the reduced quality of your investments. In investing, one of the very important parts is to have a well-focused portfolio. That provides investors to have the best opportunities. To say this way, publicly listed companies are not all worthy to invest in. Also, what is maybe more important, you can find even fewer companies that are so-called safe investments. In order to have well-diversified portfolios, investors don’t pay enough attention when picking the stocks they could add many of them that don’t give a margin of safety to the portfolio. That will cause a reduction in the quality of investment. That would be the danger of diversification.

    A complicated mixture of assets

    The other danger may appear if investors add too many assets without truly understanding what they have. In other words, their portfolios are too complicated. The point with investing is to have control over your investments and know what they are. If you have too many assets from different classes you would be lost in attempting to follow them and to stay on top of them. 

    Portfolio volatility

    It’s very important to understand that the more stocks you add to your portfolio, it will be more correlated to the market returns. There is some logic behind and you have to understand it because portfolio volatility can lower your portfolio performance. So, it can be too risky. Always keep in mind that the number of investors that ever reach average returns is under the average. The reason is the volatility caused by risk.

    Having an index fund instead of a portfolio

    Instead of buying too many stocks and adding too many assets, it’s better to buy some index funds. If you have too many assets, your portfolio will look like an index fund anyway. So indexing can be the danger of diversification. Indexing is good when the bull market, but if it is bear you could be faced with a lot of problems and danger.

    Indexing, as well as over-diversification, represents the hidden danger of diversification. For example, if your portfolio may not have quality if you hold second-rate investments along with great investments. Sometimes, holding so-called inferior investments is the result of ef emotional buying, so avoid that. Pick stocks after you research them, never based on some emotions.

    What can put us in danger of diversification?

    The largest single danger is a surprise risk. Surprises are often part of our everyday life but when it comes to our investment it is a sign that we as investors are not cautious enough. Investors should be aware of risks and to predict them as much as possible. It is crucial in investing, due to safety, to quickly transfer our assets that show more risks than we expected or we can accept.

    Also, forget you’re able to have an excellent and perfect plan for your future. Very often some unexpected events can arise. For example, this coronavirus pandemic that we have now. These events have a great impact on our investments so if we have over-diversified portfolios how could we manage all the investment? It’s almost impossible.

    The perfect investment plan doesn’t exist. Every single investor made some mistakes. Just listen to what Warren Buffet has to say about his mistakes and wrong decisions. Yes, even him.

    The belief that you are always right isn’t only a stupidity, it is a more dangerous practice. However, it demands to keep on learning in order to modify your behavior. 

    If you never change your behavior you’ll take too many risks and you’ll put yourself in one of the dangerous situations. Moreover, you’ll never grow as an investor and, also, your capital will not grow. Sometimes it is better to give up and admit we are wrong than stay with the wrong plan and make more mistakes. 

    Comfort from following others

    We are all vulnerable and insecure at some level, whether we admit it or not. A great number of people seek help in instant solutions. The easiest way is to follow what other investors do. That’s a kind of psychological effect. If the majority is doing something, how can that be wrong? Remember, only a few investors know how to make money on the stock market. The others, the majority fail. The stats are cruel. 

    The winners represent a small part of all investors. 

    Investing is difficult but it can be very successful and profitable. All you have to do is to guess where the new gain capacity will come from. The tricky part is that you cannot do that without the knowledge and without comprehensive research. The best suggestion is: follow the standards, not the people.

    The fake feeling of security can bring us to the danger of diversification

    The truth is that many apparently diversified portfolios aren’t really diverse. For example, if your portfolio consists of stocks of 5 different companies and 5 different industries it might seem as a well-diversified one. But if all your portfolio consists of 100% stock in one market index and they are all based in the same country and have exposure to the same currency, you have a very dangerous diversification. In other words, your investment is at great risk. 

    You might think you made a great choice, but in reality, you are at risk to lose everything if some unfortunate event hit that country or currency.

    Bottom line

    Proper diversification is a matter of great importance. Smart investors allocate their money based on their own valuations, never on some prophecy or doubted predictions. Avoid over-diversification if you are invested in ETFs or mutual funds since it is a common mistake. When picking the stocks, seek the highest quality companies, to direct the chances of success in your favor.

    The bright side of portfolio management is that you can avoid the danger of diversification if you manage your portfolio on your own. Diversification is an extremely crucial concept in portfolio management, but it has to be done properly. When building your portfolio keep in mind the danger of diversification in investing. That will help you to reach optimal diversification.

  • Good Returns On investment – How To Know Where To Invest?

    Good Returns On investment – How To Know Where To Invest?

    Good Returns On investment - How To Know Where To Invest?
    The long-term returns seem attractive, and it is easy to start investing. But you must have realistic expectations.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    Good returns on investment is what every single investor wants. But some have unreasonable expectations. Especially beginners. They are hunting stupid high returns on investments and lose money. No matter what asset class is, they are looking for high rates of return. Nothing is wrong with that, but a dose of reality is necessary for investing. Dreaming is okay, of course since it can motivate us to reach our goals but if our dreams are unrealistic it can deliver us the stress when we unveil that reality isn’t like our dreams. 

    So, everyone including beginners in the stock market must understand what are good returns on investment. We would all like to become rich overnight, that is a legit dream but the real-life is something different. One of the main problems is that beginners don’t understand the effect of compounding nor how it works. Most of them don’t know what good returns on investment means, how much it is.

    First of all, temper your expectations. 

    Over almost the last 100 years, the stock market’s average return is about 10% per year. But returns are infrequently average. So, if you are one of the new investors you have to know several things about what good returns on investment is. 

    What are good returns on investment?

    You have to know that historical data shows that the average stock market return is 10%. Are you surprised? What did you expect? Oh, we know! You heard the stocks are among the riskiest investments and the high risk may provide you a high potential reward, right? That’s true but it will not happen overnight. Let’s go back to average stock returns. 

    The S&P 500 Index is the benchmark measure for annual returns. When we said the average annual return is 10% it wasn’t quite true. The truth is that you have to reduce this 10% by inflation. For example, if you start to invest now you can expect to lose buying power of 2-3% per year which is caused by inflation.

    The stock market is directed on long-term investments. That means you can invest your extra or saved money you will not need for the next five years or longer. If you don’t like this you may prefer a shorter investing period, for example, a year or two. Well, then the stock market isn’t for you. Choose one of the lower-risk alternatives. For instance, a savings account. Yes, you will have the lower returns, but you’ll be protected from stock’s volatility.

    As we mentioned above, the average return per year is 10%, but it is actually far away from average. There were periods when it was dramatically lower but also the periods when the returns were much, much higher. That’s due to the stock’s volatility. We have to say and this may sound illogical for beginners, but even during the volatile market’s years, returns can be good.

    Your expectations must be fair

    Honestly, you have to learn this. Especially if you’re a new investor. You may think you can earn 25% on your stock investments over several decades. We have to tell you, your expectations are extremely big. It’s not going to happen. Maybe this is rude to say, but that’s insane. Yes, we know you found someone out there who promised you that high returns, but you have to understand cush lied to you. Such is counting on your lack of experience, and on your greed. Are you greedy? Go to the casino! Start gambling! Stock investing is a serious job, hard work, also connected with a lot of pleasure and passion with one single most important goal – to have good returns on investment and over time, to provide financial security for yourself. Well, and maybe, just maybe you’ll become rich. 

    So, your financial foundation should never be based on dangerous opinions and actions. Don’t be irresponsible. What you really need is your investment to provide you a nice retirement, you wouldn’t like to end up with less money than you expected.

    The meaning of good returns on investment can be confusing for someone, particularly young investors because when you enter the stock market you might know only about a 10% annual return rate. But keep in mind, you don’t have guarantees that they are going to repeat themselves. The returns on investments never were a smooth or upward path. remember, markets are volatile and you may suffer great losses over time. But what is important and everyone should know that that’s the nature of the free-market. Over a long-time period, you’ll beat the market if you follow some rules.

    How to calculate the rate of return

    Let’s say you already have determined your investing goals. You clearly know what your target is. Also, you have to identify the amount of capital and time you have to invest. All information you need is in front of you. So, let’s see the magic of compounding.

    For example, you have $2.000 to invest. Assume that the annual rate of return is 10%. After one year you’ll have $2.200, right? But what if you want to sell your whole investment after 2 years, for example, for $3.000. Super done! Your profit is $1.000 which is a 50% return. Amazing! Oh, wait! You have to pay capital gains taxes. Take away 15% from your gain. Well, your profit isn’t $1.000, it is $850. You’re left with $2.850. Well, you still have good returns on your investment after two years. It is 42,50% now. Did we have inflation? Of course, we did. So, you have to count inflation of 4% for 2 years. 

    Let’s do it.

    $2,850×0.96×0.96=$2,626.56 

    That is 31.32% real return of your investment. This $2.626 amount still isn’t bad but it’s far away from your $3.000 and 50% where we started this calculation.

    Look, the annual rate represents the profit you earn on your investment per year, or how much will you get in return for each dollar invested every year.

    There is a simpler calculation. Just find a simple percentage. For example, you invested $1.000 and your gain is $300. What will your return be? 

    (300/1000)x100 = 0,3×100 = 30%

    This approximative value. But if you want to know the exact you’ll need the first calculation we showed you. That is a well-known ROI, return on investment.

    Can the stock market give you good returns on investment?

    The stock market is unstable and unpredictable, so you’ll never have any guarantees there. But if you consider this 10% average return you’ll understand that investing in stocks may provide you financial security in the long run.

    What are the good returns on investment today?

    Well, the answer is pretty complex but to make it simpler, use this rule of thumb: If the recent returns were higher than average, the future returns will be lower. 

    That’s why it is much better to calculate, for example, 6% or 7% of the average annual of return when estimating your returns over time. Because, as you can see, this average return is rare. It is higher or lower. Also, there is some psychological effect, if you expect too high returns you’ll be disappointed if your investment never gives you that. Also, you’ll be glad if your investments beat your expectations.

    The best approach in the stock market, if you want to make real money, is to buy stocks at good prices and sell them at a profit.  What is a good price? To figure it out you’ll have to know how much money you want to get when you sell it.

    Good returns on investment for an active investor is 15% per year. For this to reach you’ll need to be aggressive in looking for bargains. It isn’t hard to achieve. For example, your buying power can be doubled every 6 years if you have average annual returns of 12% after you pay all taxes, also, count the inflation for each year. This is one way to beat the stock market. The other is to become a trader but a smart one. The coronavirus is causing people from almost all parts of the globe to halt their activities. People are urged to stay home, schools are moving to online learning. Take this as an advantage and learn something useful, why not?

  • How to Survive the Market Downturn?

    How to Survive the Market Downturn?

    How to Survive the Market Downturn?
    The global uncertainty due to the coronavirus outbreak forces investors to a smart allocation. Avoid companies with high debt, stay focused on the sustainability of earnings.

    By Guy Avtalyon

    How to survive the market downturn? We heard so many investors asking this. Boosting the concerns were profit warnings from the companies in Europe, the US, and all over the world. Everyone is talking that a key earnings target would take longer to meet. The reason is the coronavirus outbreak adds uncertainty in the main markets. Many well-known large companies plunged and had to mute growth for this year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. We are sure you are following what’s going one with that and also, we hope you are following WHO’s advice to protect yourselves.

    Our concern is how to survive the market downturn, what investors have to do now when the markets are down.

    Financial pandemic

    Asia Pacific markets dropped today (February, 28) due to fears about the coronavirus. These fears continue to urge a global sell-off.
    Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped more than 3% in today’s morning trading. South Korea’s Kospi and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200  fell more than 2% each.
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.7%, while the Shanghai Composite fell 3.4%.
    Also, we have a historic plunge in the markets in the US. Three major US indexes slipped into correction territory on Thursday. The S&P 500 had the worst day since 2011. The Dow sank 1,191 points, which is a drop of 4.4%. This was the worst one-day point drop in its history.
    Coronavirus appears as a ‘financial pandemic’.  The global oil benchmarks, US crude, and Brent crude fell Thursday lower by 3.4% and 2.3%.
    Even China search giant Baidu warned that revenue could fall as much as 13% in the first quarter and its core business could fall by 18% compared to the same time last year.

    How to survive the market downturn?

    So, the coronavirus has continued to spread, the stock market has started to feel the uncertainty. No one knows how this situation could affect companies over the world. Or investors. This epidemic like any other came suddenly and caused a shock to the global economy. As always, this situation lead (and it did) to great changes in the stock markets. Investors’ fears became a truth. And also, this led to panic selling.

    What a great mistake!

    Why do we think it is a great mistake? Okay, we all want our wealth to grow, not to vanish. These stock market ups and downs are hard to look at for all of us. That’s why it is so easy to be caught in emotions.

    Investors are frightened and worried and that can lead to panic. And panic can lead to quick and imprudent sellings. We want to help you to avoid this mistake that may cost you very much.

    Let’s take a look at an example that may help you to learn how to keep your hands off your investments. Especially now with a major market slide. Let’s say you entered this year with $100.000 in your investments. But it is the end of February and the stock market is dropping (You have the last data above) and let’s say, you already lost $10.000. Can you afford to lose an extra $10.000 if the market continues to fall? So, how to survive the market downturn? If you want to survive this storm your first thought might be to sell off, for example, mutual funds and move into the money market. That’s a mistake, that’s wrong. Don’t do that! The stock market can rebound. Yes, it will take a few months till then, at least two, but when it does that you’ll be able to recover your losses and gain more. So, don’t keep your money on the sidelines. Investors that did such a thing extremely regretted it.

    Try to separate your emotions from the investment decisions. One day, very soon, whatever looks like a disaster now, can be just a twinkle in your investing history. 

    How to survive the market downturn by keeping fears under control?

    Do you know a saying on Wall Street? It is something like: The Dow climbs a wall of worry. What does this saying want to tell us? Dow Jones will continue to rise despite economic downturns, pandemics, natural disasters, or any other catastrophes. That’s why we have to keep our emotions under control, our fears in check. This market correction just looks like a massive disaster but it is just one short period in the market’s cycle. 

    Well, how to tell you this? When some economic slowdown appears it is so normal for the stock market to go negative. For long-term investors that means nothing. They bought their shares at a low price when the market was down. So, consider if there is a buying opportunity. Always keep in mind the old maxim “buy low and sell high”.

    Reexamine your portfolio and your investment strategy instead of panic. Choose to be strategic with actions.

    What are the benefits of a declining stock market?

    The market is down, so what? Will it be a market correction? No one knows. What do we have to do? To stick to our investment plan and goals. Don’t damage your portfolio. 

    Investors turn into stocks when the market approaches new highs. When the market drops they are running away. So, what are they doing? Buying high, selling low? The consequence is that they have poor returns. Can you see the problem? It doesn’t have to be like that. Some investors know how to benefit from the market drop, how to survive the market downturn.

    Ways to survive the market downturn

    Firstly, they know how to recognize the problem, meaning they understand the essence of investing. With that knowledge, it is more possible to avoid unfavorable investment performance. So, learn! 

    If we sell out of fear when the market is down, we are actually generating minimal returns. At least, we should think about this before executing a trade on such occasions. The next step is to change our mentality, the way we think. For example, we all like when the price of electricity goes down, right? But we are not excited when the stock price is going down. Here is the catch! 

    How can money go further?

    It can be achieved if we buy more shares since the prices are lower. We can buy more shares even if the amount of money we planned for that stays the same. So, our money will go extra. Further, we can reinvest dividends. That can be a notable portion of our returns. We found some studies that show the dividends added 5 percentage points of the entire 7.9% returns of stocks. These studies cover the period from 1802 to 2002. So, if we want better returns we need to reinvest dividends.

    One of the benefits of a declining market is a chance to sell high and buy low but through rebalancing. This means we have to sell winning assets, the assets that increased in value, and provide money to buy assets at a lower price but with a good future perspective.

    Typically, bonds are better players in everyone’s portfolios, so sell them and go into stock funds. Analysts revealed that this only step in rebalancing can increase risk-adjusted returns, even up by 21%.

    Is the dropping market a good experience?

    A dropping market provides us priceless experience. Don’t underestimate this. That new knowledge will give us a valuable answer on how to survive the market downturn in the future. At least, we’ll be able to understand how we manage our emotions. That can be the core of our future investment goals. If we feel uncertainty about every small change in stock price, we should go into a safer investment. Maybe stocks are not for us. But if we enter the fight and end up with more winners, only the sky’s the limit. 

    We don’t like to guess if this will be a market correction or not. No one can do that, whoever tells that can predict the next stock market move, lies. We don’t know.  All we know is that the best way is to stay in your investment plan. This is smart trading!

  • Earnings Per Share The Meaning and Formula

    Earnings Per Share The Meaning and Formula

    Earnings Per Share The Meaning and Formula
    EPS is important when investors look at historical or future EPS numbers for the same company. Or when they want to compare EPS for a few companies in the same industry.

    Earnings per share actually mean a measure of how much profit a company has made. It is regularly for companies to announce their earnings per share quarterly or yearly. Earnings per share or EPS is a powerful metric in a company’s earnings estimates since it shows how much of a company’s profit is allocated to each share.

    EPS helps to determine the value assigned to each outstanding share of a company.

    Earnings per share is a very important part when examining a business’s fundamentals. It is a ratio for profitability or the company’s market prospect. It is always better when this ratio is higher. That indicates the company is profitable and able to distribute more profits to shareholders or to reinvest in the business. In both cases, the shareholders will win.

    Despite the fact that this measure is important, a lot of investors never pay attention to the EPS. That could be wrong because the higher EPS can increase the stock price. And that is strange because EPS can cause stock prices to grow and investors are profiting. So, we think that paying attention to EPS is important for making investment decisions.

    On the other hand, so many things can influence this ratio, so investors do look at it but don’t let it change their decisions radically.

    How to calculate EPS

    For example, a company has a net income of $40 million. Preferred stockholders are getting, let’s say, $4 million in dividends. Also, we found that the company has 20 million shares outstanding for the first half of the quarter and also, 24 million for the second half. That would mean the company has an average of 22 million shares. 

    So, let’s start to calculate earnings per share. We have to count the difference between a company’s net income and dividends paid for the preferred stockholders. The next is to divide that number by the average number of shares outstanding. And here it is:

    $40 million – $4 million = $36 million

    $36 million / 22 million shares = $1,64/share

    So we can conclude this company’s earnings is $1.63 per share.

    Diluted EPS

    You can see that this basic formula only takes a company’s outstanding common shares into account. But the diluted earnings-per-share calculation takes all convertible securities into consideration. A company might have convertible preferred stocks, warrants or stock options that could theoretically become common stock. If this happens, the result would be a reduction in earnings per share. A company’s diluted earnings per share will always be lower than its basic EPS.

    Basic EPS uses net income, deducts preferred dividends, and then divides by the average number of shares of common stock outstanding during the chosen period. 

    Diluted EPS doesn’t apply the number of shares outstanding. Instead, it takes into account the number of possible shares outstanding. We already mentioned that the companies can issue stock options (for employees, for example), convertible preferred shares, etc. As they theoretically can be turned into shares of stocks, diluted EPS shows us how EPS would look if all convertible securities are converted into stock. The logical consequence is that there will be more shares and diluted EPS is lower than the basic EPS. 

    Math is important

    Imagine you are a stockholder and suddenly the number of stocks rises. Prior, let’s say, you were holding 5% (this a great portion, indeed) of the company but with an increasing number of stocks, your holdings will be smaller and your part in the company’s earnings shrinks. It is just like you have to cut one apple (ouch!) into 8 instead of 6 pieces. You will get a smaller piece.
    If our company mentioned above decides to issue for example 8 million convertible preferred shares, the EPS will be lower using the formula we have. Let’s do some math:

    $36 million / (22 million + 8 million) = $1.20/share

    Diluted EPS is just $1.20 per share. Compare this figure of $1.20 with $1,64 per share.

    Where is the point?

    Investors have to calculate both EPS and diluted EPS if they want to know when a company is issuing a lot of stock options or other convertible securities. That may have a great impact on shares when the options are exercised. The stock price will fall and shares will dilute. 

    Of course, it isn’t a sign of weakness if the company is using options to hire experienced employees or to overcome current salary problems, for example. By issuing convertible stock options the company will have more money to support its growth.

    It is important to know that when we are calculating EPS for some well-established company the difference between EPS and diluted EPS can be very small or there will be no difference. But smaller companies, for example, some green and growing, may issue a lot of stock options to hire educated staff and experts. So, take it into consideration when estimating the company’s value and making a decision to invest or not.

    Weaknesses of earnings per share

    As always, even EPS has some drawbacks. It is really good when the company increases its earnings, there is no dilemma. It is a sign that the company is financially stable and it is worth investing in. But if you want to know about the company’s financial health, EPS isn’t the right metric.

    Knowing basic and diluted EPS isn’t always simple. We pointed just two examples but some factors may make it more complicated.

    For example, the company may issue additional stock shares or buy back some of its own shares or all of them. Also, it can increase its EPS by reducing the number of shares outstanding. In this case, the net income will not increase. So, we can say that companies can direct investors to believe that they are in better shape than they are in reality. The other drawback is that EPS never takes into account a company’s outstanding debt. Also, data about earnings per share doesn’t provide you info about the capital needed to produce the earnings. To put it simply, you are estimating two companies with the same earnings per share and the same income. One operates with less money to reach those earnings. The other company uses more capital. What do you think? Which one is worth investing in? One company is managing its resources better, it is obvious. But you cannot see that in their earnings per share. That’s the problem.

    Bottom line

    EPS data is a measure of a company’s profits over some time. You have to compare that data to the previous period’s data and if you notice a positive development, meaning increasing earnings, it is a good indicator. Contrary, you will need additional information and explanation to decide what to do with that stock.
    Well, there is always a measure against third-party expectations and it can be very useful since it is transparent.
    EPS is good when a company’s profits outperform similar companies in the same sector. But even when EPS is good investors sell stocks. The sell-off is caused by something called the “whisper number.” That is the investors’ consensus, based on beliefs about a stock’s future performance. Anyway, EPS and diluted EPS are important measures that every investor should know to calculate and pay attention to.

  • What is Riskier Bonds or Stocks?

    What is Riskier Bonds or Stocks?

    (Updated October 2021)

    What is Riskier, Bonds or Stocks?
    In some scenarios, bonds are riskier than stocks. The main problem is how to run your investments stable but not cutting the growth stocks have to give.

    Do you think the stocks are riskier than bonds? Well, stock prices are more volatile than bonds, that’s the truth. Also, bonds are paying fixed income. What else is on the bond side? Well, not much. Maybe these two is all since bonds could be riskier than stocks. The whole truth is that bonds are very risky for the companies, but at the same time, less risky for investors. Speaking about stocks, they are less risky for the companies but for investors, they can be extremely risky.

    So, why do so many people think that bonds are less risky? We have to solve this dilemma: what is riskier, bonds or stocks.

    The most and least risky investments

    There are so many factors that have an influence on how some investment will perform. Honestly, all investments carry some level of risk. Speaking about bonds, they are under the great influence of inflation while stock investors may not feel it so much. Stocks have some other kind of risks, for example, liquidity risk. Such a problem bond investments don’t have.

    Firstly, stocks are the riskiest investments, but they also give excellent potential for high returns. Stocks or equity investments cover stocks and stock mutual funds.

    Bonds or Fixed Income Investments cover bonds and bond mutual funds. They’re less risky than stocks but generate lower returns than stocks.

    The third-place belongs to cash or certificates of deposit, money market funds, Treasury bills, and similar investments. They are giving lower returns than stocks or bonds but carry a little risk also.

    What are stocks and bonds?

    To understand what is riskier, bonds or stocks we have to make clear what each of them is. There are two main concepts of how companies can raise money to finance their businesses. One is to issue stocks and the other is to issue the bonds. 

    Stocks and equity are the same. Both define ownership in a company and can be traded on the stock exchanges. Equity defines ownership of assets after the debt is paid off, so it is a bit broader term. Stock relates to traded equity. Equity also means stocks or shares.

    In the stock market tongue, equity and stocks are the same.

    Stocks

    Stocks will give you an ownership stake in the profits of the business, but without the promise of payment. That’s why stocks are riskier. The companies may decide to pay dividends but nothing else is an obligation. While holding the stocks the value of your investment will vary related to the company’s profit. Stocks are also dependent on investors’ sentiment and confidence. Anyway, stocks are safer for companies since they are a sure way to raise the money needed to maintain business. For investors, stocks are riskier since the companies don’t have any obligation to provide any kind of return. If the company is growing and rising profit, investors will obtain capital gains.

    Bonds

    Bonds are parts of debt issued by companies and transformed into assets to be able to trade in the market. Bonds give fixed interest rates also called coupons to bondholders. The companies have to pay the interest rate before any dividend to stockholders. Otherwise, the bonds go into default. Also, bonds are conversely related to interest rates, meaning, when rates go up, bond prices drop. 

    Can you see now? How to answer the question of what is riskier, bonds or stocks? For investors, stocks are a riskier investment, for the companies, the bonds are riskier. 

    Bonds vs Stocks

    The majority of investments can be classified as bond investments or stock investments. In stock investment, you are buying an asset and your profit depends on the performance of that asset. If you buy a y a thousand shares of Tesla, your profit is based upon the stock dividend which Tesla pays (if any) and upon the fluctuation of the value of Tesla shares.

    In a bond investment, you actually loan money to a company or a government. With a bond investment, your profit is not related to the performance of the company. If you buy a $2,000 bond from Tesla, for example,  and the company earns a record profit, your profit will be the same as if Tesla didn’t make a profit at all. But here is the risk involved with the bond investment. What if the company is unable to pay back the debt? You can lose all your investment.

    Stock investment is recognized as a higher risk. But risk makes a profit, therefore you will earn a higher return over the long term. 

    So, what is riskier, bonds or stocks?

    Risks and rewards of stocks investments

    Stock investments offer higher risks but greater rewards. A lot of things influence that. An increased sales, for example, or market share, or any improvement or development of the company’s business, literally anything can shift the stock price and skyrocket it. So, investors can earn by selling them or by receiving the dividends.  

    Any company can succeed or stumble. That’s the reason why nobody should invest in just one company. Do you know the saying: Never put all eggs into one basket? But if you hold stocks from several companies you will ensure high returns over the long term. 

    But, so many investors couldn’t watch the unfortunate events without selling their stocks at a loss. 

    Well, if you don’t have a stomach for that just stay away from the market or, which is a better choice, diversify your investment portfolio. Add some bonds-based investments, that will help you when the stock market gets rough. Moreover, a well-diversified portfolio will give you a bumper by providing lower volatility and calm play. So, you will not be forced to sell your investments and feel stress while making decisions. 

    Bottom line

    So, do you have the answer what is riskier, bonds or stocks?
    Yes, stock prices fluctuate more than the prices of bonds but that doesn’t necessarily mean more risk for the investor. There are a lot of cases when bonds are riskier than stocks.

    For example, over a high inflationary period when inflation is surging quickly, the bond price can be damaged, decreased. The inflation will decrease the value of payments, and the bonds will mature less valuable.  

    On the contrary, stocks can boost their prices during inflation. The companies could raise prices of their products and increase their profits. That would raise the value of their stock, even higher than the inflation rate. 

    Can you see how the bonds might be riskier investments than stocks?

    During the regular economic conditions, stocks could be much riskier than bonds.

    Stock prices could sink sharply. Hold! Don’t sell! Wait for a while, wait for a stock to bounce back in price. And you know what, when the stock prices are falling, there is no better moment to buy them and hold. Just pick a well-established company. 

    The point is that bonds are not always the safest asset. They can be very risky. In some scenarios, stocks can be a much safer choice. 

    Savvy investors will buy both to diversify portfolios. Of course, how many of each you will hold isn’t set in stone. You can change it over your lifetime as many times as you want to reach your goals and earn a profit.