{"id":25656,"date":"2021-02-13T14:28:31","date_gmt":"2021-02-13T14:28:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/?p=25656"},"modified":"2021-02-25T10:00:06","modified_gmt":"2021-02-25T10:00:06","slug":"are-we-in-an-overpriced-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we in an overpriced market?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1446\" src=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/market-crash-1-e1531477856380.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/market-crash-1-e1531477856380.jpg 700w, https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/market-crash-1-e1531477856380-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/market-crash-1-e1531477856380-370x261.jpg 370w, https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/market-crash-1-e1531477856380-424x299.jpg 424w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_74 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#By_Guy_Avtalyon\" >By Guy Avtalyon<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#As_part_of_my_research_work_I_come_across_numerus_websites_that_show_in_a_very_convincing_way_that_the_market_is_overvalued_and_over-priced\" >As part of my research work, I come across numerus websites that show (in a very convincing way) that the market is overvalued and over-priced.<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#I_do_not_know_if_were_in_a_bubble_or_not_but_to_my_impression_were_not_there_yet\" >I do not know if we&#8217;re in a bubble or not, but to my impression we&#8217;re not there yet.<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#What_we_should_expect_in_the_near_future\" >What we should expect in the near future?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#Is_student_loans_going_to_be_the_next_market_crash_reason\" >Is student loans going to be the next market crash reason?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#What_is_overvalued_market_anyways\" >What is overvalued market anyways?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2021\/02\/are-we-in-an-overpriced-market\/#Bottom_line\" >Bottom line<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"By_Guy_Avtalyon\"><\/span><strong style=\"font-size: 17.0002px;\"><a style=\"color: #72cfd5;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/guy-avtalyon-67941b54\/\">By Guy Avtalyon<\/a><\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"As_part_of_my_research_work_I_come_across_numerus_websites_that_show_in_a_very_convincing_way_that_the_market_is_overvalued_and_over-priced\"><\/span>As part of my research work, I come across numerus websites that show (in a very convincing way) that the market is overvalued and over-priced.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>I&#8217;m not going to argue if it&#8217;s true or not, because every noob trader knows that a price isn&#8217;t high or low, but it&#8217;s simply what all other traders agree on.<\/p>\n<p>So when it&#8217;s an over-priced situation, just like we can see in this image for example:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Are-we-in-an-overpriced-market-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1755\" height=\"578\" \/>(Image from currentmarketvaluation.com)<\/p>\n<p>Then everyone worry that we&#8217;re in a bubble.<\/p>\n<p>You can also see in this image of fear and greed (<a href=\"https:\/\/money.cnn.com\/data\/fear-and-greed\/\">found here<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25663\" src=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Are-we-in-an-overpriced-market-3.png\" alt=\"Fear and Greed\" width=\"652\" height=\"304\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The general feeling at the moment is more Greed than fear.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"I_do_not_know_if_were_in_a_bubble_or_not_but_to_my_impression_were_not_there_yet\"><\/span>I do not know if we&#8217;re in a bubble or not, but to my impression we&#8217;re not there yet.<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>First, if we look at past crashes, we can see that each of them happened from a reason (Dot Com bubble in the 00&#8242; and fin crash in 08&#8242;), in most cases the regulators closed any option for it to happen again.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, we should except a crash in the future, and yes it will be because of a reason that yet been closed or discovered &#8211; but I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s the case now.<\/p>\n<p>Secondly, if we take into consideration the global pandemic (Corona virus) and the market&#8217;s reactions (starting in panic in March 20&#8242; that resulted in drops, but just in few months got back to previous price and even exceeded it) &#8211; we can definitely see that there&#8217;s major confidence in the markets from traders&#8217; and investors&#8217; point of view.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_we_should_expect_in_the_near_future\"><\/span>What we should expect in the near future?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>First we&#8217;re in <a href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/trading-dictionary\/a\/ath-all-time-high\/\">all time&#8217;s high<\/a> (or close to it) in many verticals and index prices.<\/p>\n<p>I, personally, don&#8217;t like to trade on all time highs (or even a current time [weeks, months] high). It doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s wrong, but due to regression towards the mean principle &#8211; statistically there&#8217;s more chance for price to drop than there&#8217;s to rise.<\/p>\n<p>So the most likely event to happen in the next few months are price corrections.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_student_loans_going_to_be_the_next_market_crash_reason\"><\/span>Is student loans going to be the next market crash reason?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>An example to a possible reason for market crash can be found in student loans.<\/p>\n<p>As you can see in this image:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;In 2020, the amount of student loan debt that is delinquent or in default is almost equal to the size of the entire student loan market from only 17 years ago. How much longer can this chart increase? Federal student loans are not even cleared in bankruptcy, and so this escalating mountain of debt &#8211; including the delinquent\/default debt &#8211; will carry on as a burden for much of the adult life of the borrower. This debt burden is already becoming a national crisis, and combined with economic downturn and high unemployment, we are setting up for generations of Americans to be trapped under a nearly inescapable mountain of debt, unable to build wealth.&#8221; (From currentmarketvaluation.com)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25665\" src=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Are-we-in-an-overpriced-market-2a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"486\" \/>(Image from currentmarketvaluation.com)<\/p>\n<p>What the image and the quote are trying to show us is that many students (more than ever) are taking loans without being able to return it resulting in a struggling to keep his head above the water borrower.<\/p>\n<p>My agenda is just the other way around:<\/p>\n<p>The best thing that can happen in any economy is education, research, learning and sharing information, and more. This can only happen if someone isn&#8217;t worried about how he will feed himself or where will he sleep tonight. The economy in general and the individuals in particular need to be open for creativity, inspirations, and mainly &#8211; make mistakes and learn from them. For that reason I choose to look at the blue line (and not the red) and look at them as the future of the economy. Some of them are working, as you read these lines, on the next Facebook, next TikTok and the next Netflix and Tesla, and it&#8217;s good for the economy.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_is_overvalued_market_anyways\"><\/span>What is overvalued market anyways?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Overvalued and overpriced market appears when the full potential of the market is exceeded. This is not a real formula you can calculate as it&#8217;s mainly the average opinion of ALL players in the market.<\/p>\n<p>But, since the global economy isn&#8217;t close to its full potential and more than 40% of the world&#8217;s population <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/617136\/digital-population-worldwide\/\">doesn&#8217;t have access to internet<\/a> yet(!!). That&#8217;s billions of people with buying power that still isn&#8217;t in action.Yes, it will take many years for the vast majority of the population to have internet, but that&#8217;s also what&#8217;s exciting about it.<\/p>\n<p>Another thing is, usually, you can spot overvaluation in hindsight.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bottom_line\"><\/span>Bottom line<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Market might crash soon, and indicators all over the place are screaming overvalue, but the fact is no one can predict the future.<\/p>\n<p>The only thing that has 99.99% to happen is if the market do crashes, it will eventually return to its pre-crash value and even exceed it. Might take months or years, but this is the only thing that is almost certain to happen.<\/p>\n<p>My personal predication is unless there&#8217;s a loophole we can&#8217;t still that is risking major parts of the market, we should expect to see mainly market corrections due the overpriced stocks and traders monetizing their gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Guy Avtalyon As part of my research work, I come across numerus websites that show (in a very convincing way) that the market is overvalued and over-priced. I&#8217;m not going to argue if it&#8217;s true or not, because every noob trader knows that a price isn&#8217;t high or low, but it&#8217;s simply what all [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1004],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-financial-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are we in an overpriced market? - Traders-Paradise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are we in an over-priced market? 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