{"id":21567,"date":"2020-04-05T11:36:24","date_gmt":"2020-04-05T10:36:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/?p=21567"},"modified":"2020-04-22T09:49:04","modified_gmt":"2020-04-22T08:49:04","slug":"how-long-will-the-bear-market-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/","title":{"rendered":"How Long Will The Bear Market Last?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_74 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#Stock_markets_over_the_world_experienced_great_losses_from_the_beginning_of_this_year_due_to_a_massive_sell-off_caused_by_the_COVID-19\" >Stock markets over the world experienced great losses from the beginning of this year due to a massive sell-off caused by the COVID-19.\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#How_long_will_the_bear_market_last\" >How long will the bear market last?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#Predictions_for_the_stock_market\" >Predictions for the stock market<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#Bear_markets_rule_a_short_time\" >Bear markets rule a short time<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#Lets_see_how_long_this_bear_could_market_last\" >Let\u2019s see how long this bear could market last?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/04\/how-long-will-the-bear-market-last\/#Bottom_line\" >Bottom line<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Stock_markets_over_the_world_experienced_great_losses_from_the_beginning_of_this_year_due_to_a_massive_sell-off_caused_by_the_COVID-19\"><\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21568\" src=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/bear-market-last-t-1.jpg\" alt=\"How Long Will The Bear Market Last?\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" \/><br \/>\n<strong>Stock markets over the world experienced great losses from the beginning of this year due to a massive sell-off caused by the COVID-19.\u00a0<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How long will the bear market last? We believe not forever. In fact, the bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Especially when they are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/03\/coronavirus-is-crashing-the-global-markets\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">driven by some event<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Coronavirus outbreak is such an event. like this one is. But if we take a look at historical data we may conclude that the question of how long will the bear market last, pretty naive. How is that? Well, this kind of bear market recovers very fast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How can we be so sure?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let us explain. If we want to put different types of a bear market into categories, we will see we can put them into 3 key categories based on the type of drivers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first type of bear market is caused by the business cycle. That is when growth leads to inflation, interest rates increase too fast, the yield curve inverts, demand decreases, loan activity decreases, etc. They are so-called cyclical bear markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second type is caused by market bubbles, much more leverage, turbulences, and disruptions on the credit markets. In other words, this structural type of bear market occurs when we have structural asymmetries in the market or economy. So, we are pointing to another type of bear market, the so-called structural bear market. We already saw it in the 2008-2009 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/02\/how-to-survive-the-market-downturn\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">market downturn<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But also, we can recognize a bear market driven by some event which is this one, caused by a coronavirus outbreak and global pandemic. Of course, this kind of bear market can be triggered by some crises, wars, political instabilities, etc.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_long_will_the_bear_market_last\"><\/span><b>How long will the bear market last?<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This month can be an important test for stock-market investors. Everyone is looking for hints that the worst of this stock market massacre is ended. But the coronavirus outbreak moves on and demands at least short-term economic distress. In the next several weeks we will be faced with more and more bad news as a pandemic is spreading. That may cause further sellings. Bad news has such an influence on the stock market. Also, a surge of business failures can occur.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The experts sound pretty sure that the stock market&#8217;s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2020\/03\/a-dead-cat-bounce-how-to-trade-it\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">bounceback<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> last week is a good sign even though all markets are volatile. The stock market was dropping with great speed into the bear market. But yet, there is a hope that March lows for main indexes may be kept from further declines. That is just our opinion, based on the reaction of central banks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Well, this bear market isn&#8217;t easy for any investor. Even the most optimistic investors claim that further decline is possible before the stocks find the bottom. That is true especially if we know that sharp rebounds are possible before retesting new lows. But as we said, there is a logical chance that recent lows can be the last we saw and rebounds can be better than in former significant selloffs.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Predictions_for_the_stock_market\"><\/span><b>Predictions for the stock market<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Robert J. Shiller, a Nobel laureate is exactly certain about the stock market in the long run. His concerns are about how long will the bear market last, where the stock market is heading.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He wrote for <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-52113841\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The New York Times<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;It is too simple to assume that with its steep decline, the market has already discounted epidemiologists\u2019 forecasts for COVID-19. By this logic, the stock market would fall further only if the virus turns out to be worse than forecast.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yes, but we are dealing with an entirely unknown situation. We never have had before such a massive lockdown of everything companies, whole industries, millions of people, the numerous countries. This is a totally unique event.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Robert J. Shiller added in his column:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;People are seeking reassurance from homespun investment advice, like the old nostrum that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should be equal to 100 minus your age, come what may. If you are 60, for example, you should hold 40 percent stocks, under this rule.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And also admitted that &#8220;this advice isn\u2019t grounded in any scientific truth about financial markets.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Well, this advice isn&#8217;t bad, it is good advice. It isn&#8217;t against common sense. While people are doing something, taking action they may feel better. That is from a psychological point of view. Also, it is a quite reasonable decision to risk less in such a market downturn but yet inspires you to take action.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shiller advises further &#8220;buying just enough to restore the stock balance after market declines.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bear_markets_rule_a_short_time\"><\/span><b>Bear markets rule a short time<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe this is the answer to the question of how long will the bear market last. Bear markets rule for a short time. What we can expect is the market data will be weak in the weeks ahead. The problem is what are we expecting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stocks in March entered a bear market with record speed. After March 23 they were bouncing sharply. But DJIA has the biggest first-quarter decline of -1.68% on record with a 23.2% fall. The S&amp;P 500 Index had a decline of -1.51% on a 20% first-quarter fall this year. It is the biggest since 2008. After March 23 both indexes had a rebound and for example, DJIA had its biggest three-day gain, which had been seen last time in 1931.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Lets_see_how_long_this_bear_could_market_last\"><\/span><b>Let\u2019s see how long this bear could market last?<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As we said we can recognize three main types of bear markets: caused by the business cycle, caused by some event (like this one) and a structural bear market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The most severe is the structural bear market because it is the result of problems in the financial system and capital markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A cyclical bear market is bad also but tends to fix itself over a short time and sufficient policy answers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And last but not the least, the bear market caused by some event. According to historical data, this kind of bear market was shorter, less critical on the downside. Such a market took less time to recover. It is quite logical. Before the market was hit with a drastic event such as a coronavirus outbreak, the markets all over the world were in good condition. And you see, that&#8217;s why we think that it does not take as long for the economy to recover once the shock of this event disappears. It&#8217;s true that so many people lost jobs in the early stage of the pandemic, the companies are faced with shutdowns and limitations. But when this kind of problem disappears, everything can return in normal pretty quickly.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bottom_line\"><\/span><b>Bottom line<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How long will the bear market last? There is no way to predict that, honestly. Who can predict when the market will bottom? From what we know, the bear market will end even before bad news stops coming up to us. For investors, the main point is to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/traders-paradise.com\/magazine\/2019\/03\/trading-with-success-guide-for-beginners\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">be ready<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for that first day of recovery, they have to adjust their positions for that to join the rebound when it happens. We believe it can happen sooner than many investors expect or predict.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the meantime, we recommend investors wait for it calmly. Stay focused on long-term investments and don&#8217;t let your emotions take control of your decisions. Use this period to learn something new and expend your horizons.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock markets over the world experienced great losses from the beginning of this year due to a massive sell-off caused by the COVID-19.\u00a0 How long will the bear market last? We believe not forever. In fact, the bear markets are much shorter than bull markets. Especially when they are driven by some event. Coronavirus outbreak [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21570,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1004,1005],"tags":[641,1797,1585,1658,113,264,1654,1798,182],"class_list":["post-21567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-financial-news","category-market-today","tag-bear-market","tag-bull-markets","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-investing","tag-investors","tag-market-downturn","tag-market-recovery","tag-stock-market"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How Long Will The Bear Market Last? - Traders-Paradise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How long will the bear market last? 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